Projection review - Catchers
Starting with catchers today, I’ll be going over some of my preseason projections in the blog over the next couple of weeks. Here’s a look at the top 10 and a few more notables.
1. Victor Martinez
Projection: .304/.381/.482, 22 HR, 80 R, 100 RBI, 0 SB in 552 AB
2008 stats: .315/.362/.377, 0 HR, 9 R, 15 RBI, 0 SB in 130 AB
2. Joe Mauer
Projection: .325/.420/.491, 14 HR, 87 R, 73 RBI, 8 SB in 493 AB
2008 stats: .316/.394/.397, 0 HR, 25 R, 16 RBI, 0 SB in 136 AB
That Mauer’s power has yet to make an appearance isn’t a complete surprise. However, the complete absence of the long ball from Martinez’s line is. He’s actually hitting for even less power than Mauer. I can’t imagine that will last. Mauer, on the other hand, appears far more interested in matching his 2006 average of .347 than his homer total of 13. I wouldn’t expect more than six homers from him over the rest of the year.
3. Russell Martin
Projection: .290/.369/.459, 17 HR, 84 R, 77 RBI, 13 SB in 514 AB
2008 stats: .324/.444/.428, 3 HR, 22 R, 17 RBI, 4 SB in 145 AB
That’s one tremendous OBP, but he isn’t helping the Dodgers on the basepaths when he’s been caught in half of his eight attempts.
4. Brian McCann
Projection: .286/.347/.484, 21 HR, 62 R, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 469 AB
2008 stats: .316/.379/.579, 7 HR, 20 R, 26 RBI, 0 SB in 152 AB
McCann has started 39 of the Braves’ 43 games so far. He seems certain to wear down if he’s asked to maintain that pace.
5. Jorge Posada
Projection: .271/.377/.459, 20 HR, 76 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB in 473 AB
2008 stats: .302/.333/.476, 1 HR, 8 R, 11 RBI, 0 SB in 63 AB
6. Ivan Rodriguez
Projection: .284/.314/.419, 11 HR, 69 R, 69 RBI, 4 SB in 504 AB
2008 stats: .264/.307/.386, 1 HR, 16 R, 16 RBI, 3 SB in 140 AB
Disappointing season for a disappointing team, yet he still ranks in the top 10 among catchers in both runs and RBI.
7. Kenji Johjima
Projection: .282/.332/.430, 15 HR, 56 R, 68 RBI, 2 SB in 479 AB
2008 stats: .221/.259/.313, 2 HR, 10 R, 12 RBI, 1 SB in 131 AB
Johjima was dropped to 14th in the May rankings, and it doesn’t figure that he’ll move up next month.
8. Ramon Hernandez
Projection: .269/.336/.443, 18 HR, 57 R, 73 RBI, 1 SB in 465 AB
2008 stats: .209/.236/.348, 3 HR, 7 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB in 115 AB
9. A.J. Pierzynski
Projection: .277/.320/.419, 15 HR, 56 R, 65 RBI, 1 SB in 477 AB
2008 stats: .317/.371/.496, 3 HR, 20 R, 16 RBI, 0 SB in 139 AB
10. Bengie Molina
Projection: .275/.308/.420, 16 HR, 43 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB in 455 AB
2008 stats: .275/.305/.423, 4 HR, 12 R, 22 RBI, 0 SB in 142 AB
Others
11. Geovany Soto
Projection: .270/.346/.448, 17 HR, 48 R, 61 RBI, 0 SB in 404 AB
2008 stats: .321/.429/.607, 8 HR, 20 R, 30 RBI, 0 SB in 140 AB
Soto looked like a candidate to finish among the leaguers at the catcher position in the power categories, but a .321 average and a .429 OBP? Pretty amazing.
17. Mike Napoli:
Projection: .236/.343/.448, 16 HR, 50 R, 45 RBI, 5 SB in 326 AB
2008 stats: .258/.410/.607, 10 HR, 13 R, 23 RBI, 3 SB in 89 AB
There was a 16-day span last month in which Jeff Mathis started nine games to Napoli’s six. Napoli can’t keep up this pace, but if manager Mike Scioscia commits to starting him five times per week, he could be a top-10 catcher the rest of the way.
19. J.R. Towles
Projection: .259/.337/.429, 12 HR, 39 R, 46 RBI, 6 SB in 340 AB
2008 stats: .149/.266/.319, 4 HR, 8 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB in 94 AB
It’s too early for the Astros to give up on Towles, but they might make a switch if they go on a losing streak and he continues to slump.
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