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May 27, 2008

Projection review - First basemen

I’m going over some preseason projections and checking in on where guys are now. Up today is first base.

Preseason Top 10

1. Albert Pujols
Projection: .323/.432/.618, 41 HR, 116 R, 112 RBI, 6 SB in 563 AB
2008 stats: .346/.474/.593, 11 HR, 31 R, 33 RBI, 2 SB in 182 AB

The St. Louis lineup has been better than expected, but Pujols’ run and RBI numbers haven’t reflected it. He’s on pace to finish right around the century mark in both categories. I thought I was being cautious penciling him in at 116 and 112 (he’s gone as high as 137 in both categories), but even that might have been a little too optimistic.

Continue reading "Projection review - First basemen" »

May 23, 2008

Vizquel's Hall of Fame case

Vizquel builds strong resume, but is he first-ballot pick?

Of all the Hall of Fame cases coming up over the next 10 years, I’m most interested in seeing how Omar Vizquel is treated. The points in his favor are obvious:

- 11 Gold Gloves at the game’s toughest or second toughest position
- All-time record for most games at shortstop (he’ll pass Luis Aparicio this weekend)
- 2,700-2,800 hits (2,609 right now)
- No steroid controversy

The negatives are almost as clear:

- Just three All-Star appearances
- Received MVP votes just once (1999, 16th place)
- Career OPS+ of 84

Not counting 2008, Vizquel has had an OPS+ over 80 in just 10 of his 19 seasons. In several years, he was a below average player despite his strong glove. Even in his best years, he was typically the third- or fourth-best player on his team. He’s never won a World Series, and his postseason numbers are subpar.

Still, the 84 OPS+ ranks right between Aparicio’s 82 and Ozzie Smith’s 87. Vizquel would seem to have at least as much right to be enshrined as Aparicio and Bill Mazeroski (84 OPS+) did.

I really don’t like the thought of a guy who was never once viewed as one of the top 10 players in his league going into the Hall of Fame. However, it’s probably going to happen. Not on the first ballot, but soon thereafter. I’d at least like to see 12-time All-Star Barry Larkin and six-time All-Star Alan Trammell get there first.

May 20, 2008

Lugo vs. Cora

With Julio Lugo having committed 11 errors in 38 games, it makes perfect sense for the Red Sox to turn to Alex Cora as a defensive replacement late in games. The vast majority of the time anyway.

The Red Sox made the move again in the ninth inning Monday in a 7-0 game with Jon Lester's no-hitter on the line. The whole reason for going to Cora is that he's the sure-handed one, especially at the moment. Lugo had already made one bad throw in the game, though Kevin Youkilis was able to handle it. But the idea in the ninth inning Monday should have been to prevent hits. Lugo has the greater range of the two, and if he happened to commit an error in a 7-0 game, well, so what? It ended up not mattering, of course, but if Cora had come up a little short on a ball up the middle, it would have been pretty embarrassing.

May 19, 2008

Projection review - Catchers

Starting with catchers today, I’ll be going over some of my preseason projections in the blog over the next couple of weeks. Here’s a look at the top 10 and a few more notables.

1. Victor Martinez
Projection: .304/.381/.482, 22 HR, 80 R, 100 RBI, 0 SB in 552 AB
2008 stats: .315/.362/.377, 0 HR, 9 R, 15 RBI, 0 SB in 130 AB

2. Joe Mauer
Projection: .325/.420/.491, 14 HR, 87 R, 73 RBI, 8 SB in 493 AB
2008 stats: .316/.394/.397, 0 HR, 25 R, 16 RBI, 0 SB in 136 AB

That Mauer’s power has yet to make an appearance isn’t a complete surprise. However, the complete absence of the long ball from Martinez’s line is. He’s actually hitting for even less power than Mauer. I can’t imagine that will last. Mauer, on the other hand, appears far more interested in matching his 2006 average of .347 than his homer total of 13. I wouldn’t expect more than six homers from him over the rest of the year.

Continue reading "Projection review - Catchers" »

  
 
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