Draft guide update - March 6
Thursday's draft guide updates:
Outfielders
Reed Johnson (Blue Jays) - Down $2
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) - Down $1
Matt Stairs (Blue Jays)
Shannon Stewart (Blue Jays) - Down $3
Stewart’s arrival in Toronto seems to have more of an impact on Johnson than Stairs. Stairs still figures to get his playing time versus righties, and I wasn’t penciling him in for 400-450 at-bats anyway. Now it looks like Johnson is going to need a trade if he’s going to have any value at all.
Mike Cameron (Brewers) - Up $1
Brewers manager Ned Yost likes Cameron as a No. 2 hitter. We’ll see if he still feels the same way if someone else does the job well while the center fielder is serving a 25-game suspension.
Rick Ankiel (Cardinals)
Ryan Ludwick (Cardinals) - Up $1
A few extra at-bats for both with Scott Spiezio gone. Ludwick may be the favorite to start in right field for the Cardinals right now.
Trot Nixon (Diamondbacks) - Down $1
Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
Delwyn Young (Dodgers)
Kemp didn’t quite lose a dollar, but his projection was downgraded slightly with manager Joe Torre clearly looking at him as a No. 8 hitter.
Jason Tyner (Indians)
Cameron Maybin (Marlins)
Maybin was a candidate to bat first or second initially, but now it looks like he’ll hit seventh if he makes the Marlins. I rearranged his projection, but didn’t drop him. He’s still the clear favorite to start.
Moises Alou (Mets) - Down $2
Endy Chavez (Mets) - Up $1
Angel Pagan (Mets)
Chavez and Pagan picked up some at-bats with Alou going down, but odds are that the Mets will trade for outfield help prior to Opening Day.
Scott Hairston (Padres) - Up $2
I spent all winter figuring the Padres would bring in one more outfielder. They haven’t, so Hairston, as the likely starter in left, gets a $2 boost.
Frank Catalanotto (Rangers) - Down $1
Catalanotto is expected to hit in the bottom of the third of the order once the Rangers officially turn the leadoff slot over to Ian Kinsler.
Rocco Baldelli (Rays) - Down $1
Jonny Gomes (Rays) - Up $1
An offseason of rest didn’t seem to cure Baldelli’s of his hamstring woes. Maybe he’ll hold up for 130 games primarily as a DH anyway, but he’s a worse bet than he was a few weeks ago.
Jay Bruce (Reds)
Ryan Freel (Reds)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (Reds)
Corey Patterson (Reds) - Down $5
Patterson’s arrival probably knocks Bruce back to Triple-A, but I wasn’t counting on him making the team anyway. He’ll still be a factor before all is said and done. The Reds could go with Patterson versus righties and Freel or Norris Hopper against lefties initially. Freel, though, will deserve some starts against righties over Patterson. Hopper, who is highly unlikely to repeat a fluky 2007, should eventually prove to be the odd man out.
Matt Holliday (Rockies) - Down $1
Holliday lost a bit of value with the switch from third to the cleanup spot in the order. He’ll have a few more chances to drive in runs, but he’ll lose runs scored and he’ll be pitched around more frequently when a lefty is on the mound. Todd Helton was much better support in that regard than Brad Hawpe is.
Jason Pridie (Twins)
Alexei Ramirez (White Sox)
Ramirez went from a lower-tier $1 pick to my top $1 outfielder. It’s obvious already that he has some upside.
Hideki Matsui (Yankees) - Down $1
Matsui remains a little behind schedule in his return from knee surgery and appears unlikely to be a full-time player at the start of the season.
Shawn Green (Retired) - Down $5
Kenny Lofton (Free Agent) - Down $2
Lofton still figures to find work, but I had to take down his at-bats projection a ways.
Starting pitchers
Kevin Correia (Giants) - Up $1
Noah Lowry (Giants) - Down $1
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) - Up $1
As a result of Lowry’s injury, I now have all three of these guys at $1. Sanchez was very close to the cutoff anyway, even though he was behind Correia in line for a rotation spot. The Giants still could bypass him if one of the available veterans would come cheap enough for them (Jeff Weaver maybe?).





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