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Draft guide update - Feb. 5

Finished the current starting pitching projections update. Covered besides Johan Santana this week were:

Erik Bedard - Up $2
Brandon Morrow
Horacio Ramirez
Adam Loewen
Garrett Olson
Troy Patton

Since all signs point to it being finalized within the next couple of days, I went ahead and switched Bedard’s projection to where he’ll be as a Mariner. I already had him as the new No. 1 pitcher in AL-only leagues with Santana gone, so that doesn’t change. However, he’s now a whole lot closer to Jake Peavy for No. 2 overall among SPs than he is to Josh Beckett at No. 4. I dropped his ERA from 3.32 to 3.20 and gave him an extra win because of the switch.

Morrow now seems more likely to see time as a reliever, so his innings count was dropped. Ramirez’s innings declined only slightly. I’m guessing the Mariners will release him in spring training, allowing him to land in an NL rotation.

Loewen, Olson and Patton all received innings increases with Bedard departing. Matt Albers and Hayden Penn may follow. Loewen is still the only one in the group that I have possessing positive value. I’m guessing the Orioles will sign a veteran rather than go with two more youngsters behind Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera and Loewen.

Boof Bonser
Kevin Mulvey
Philip Humber

Santana fallout. Bonser now seems like a better bet to stay in the rotation for most of the year, so I boosted his innings total from 149 to 181. He’s still only a $1 pitcher in 5x5 leagues.

I thought Humber was a sleeper with the Mets, but I don’t see his stuff giving him value in AL-only leagues this year. He might start off in the minors anyway.

Chuck James - Down $1
Mark Mulder
Runelvys Hernandez
Enrique Gonzalez
Casey Fossum
Jaret Wright
Armando Galarraga
Victor Zambrano

James’ shoulder is a growing concern, so he dropped from $6 to $5. If the left-hander is still having problems this spring, then Jair Jurrjens will look like a pretty good sleeper.

Mulder no longer seems to have any chance of being ready for the start of the season, so I dropped his innings count from 138 to 124. I truly doubt that he’ll have value at any point during the season.

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