Santana trade ramifications
Assuming that Johan Santana officially becomes a Met before the Friday afternoon deadline, here’s what we’re looking at from a fantasy perspective:
- Santana should lose .25-.50 off his ERA and gain an additional 15-25 strikeouts. I had Santana going 18-7 with a 3.04 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 231 Ks in 225 IP for the Twins. As a Met, he’ll get something close to a 2.75 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 250 Ks for a projection. I’ll also give him a 19th victory. That will make him the No. 1 player on my board in an NL-only league. He’ll move past Jose Reyes as the No. 2 player in mixed leagues.
- If the Twins want to show that the Santana trade wasn’t made strictly with 2009 and beyond in mind, they could give Carlos Gomez a starting job right away or at least set it up so that he’ll battle Jason Pridie in spring training. I think Gomez needs to spend most of the year in Triple-A, but I’d say it’s no better than 50-50 that it will happen. There are still a couple of nice one-year stopgaps out there in the form of Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson. If Gomez gets the job, he could hit .250-.260 and steal 30 bases. The lack of walks and power would probably give him an OPS in the 600-650 range.
- With little left to prove in the minors, Phil Humber should have the advantage over Kevin Mulvey in the competition for rotation spots initially. The Santana trade probably locks up a spot for Boof Bonser alongside Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker. Kevin Slowey should be the clear favorite for one of the two remaining openings, with Humber, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Brian Bass and perhaps Zach Day also in the mix. Humber would need to show quite a bit in spring training to be an option as a $1 pick. Perkins and Blackburn are probably better bets for this year.
Non-fantasy ramifications:
- Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez would have much preferred to see Santana go to the Red Sox or Yankees. Now the Mets are out as bidders, and the game’s two biggest spenders don’t figure to have any interest. The Astros could really use one of the two, and the Mariners might enter the mix if their plans for Erik Bedard fall through. I doubt the Phillies have the room in their budget, though they’d surely like to respond to the Mets’ big pickup. I could see the Royals making a run at Lohse. The Nationals and Giants could also make offers to both if they sense they’ll be relative bargains.
- I’m not sure whether the deal makes it more or less likely that we’ll see Mike Pelfrey tried as a short reliever at some point during the year. On the one hand, the Mets are a whole lot more confident about their five starters right now. On the other, they’ve just cashed in their insurance policies to get Santana. Besides Santana, not one of their starters is a good bet to throw 200 innings. Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez might be lucky to get to 150. They’re likely to need both Pelfrey and Jorge Sosa as starters at some point. If they’re still not maxed out financially, it’d make a lot of sense to take on a rehab case, possibly Freddy Garcia. Another Sosa-type swingman could help as well. Shawn Chacon fits that description.
Comments
Why not give Pelfrey a shot as the no. 5 starter and use El Duque as a swingman?
Posted by: Stu B | January 31, 2008 12:32 PM
Agreed. You know Duque only has like 120 ip per year in that arm and The Mets need him come playoff time. Also they need to find out what Pelfrey is actually. Does he have enough secondary pitches to be a Starter or his future as a dominant hard throwing bullpen stopper. Or better yet put Heilman and his vicious change up in the rotation and let Maine and his 2 pitch arsenal be groomed as Billy Wagner's successor. As soon as this year maybe, Maine's stuff screams closer 96 mph FB,85 mph breaker, high FB% sounds like a closer to me. Wagner looked hurt down the stretch last year and all of this Santana stuff is moot if there is no back end to the bullpen. Please don't tell me Eddie Kunz is the answer either. The bullpen is a big unmentioned problem for the Mets if Wagner isn't right. A problem that will be cost the Mets dearly if they really envision themselves as possible World Series winners.
Posted by: Loopster1000 | January 31, 2008 01:00 PM