Gomez vs. Ellsbury

Ellsbury is the polished product and the one ready to step into center field right away in 2008. Gomez got a look last year and didn’t embarrass himself, but he still hasn’t had an 800 OPS at any minor league stop. A full year in Triple-A would do him a lot of good, and judging by the fact that they’ve spent significant dollars to add Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Craig Monroe, the Twins may prefer someone who can help now.

For the long-term, Gomez has at least as much upside as Ellsbury, though he’s less likely to reach it. Both project as excellent defensive center fielders, especially Ellsbury. Ellsbury has the big edge in on-base skills. Gomez has more power potential, though Ellsbury did show surprising pop while with the Red Sox in September.

Both players rank among the top-20 prospects in baseball. I give Ellsbury the edge, but it’s not quite so significant for a team that’s unlikely to contend this year. By 2009, Gomez should be an acceptable regular.

Guerra, Mulvey and Humber vs. Masterson and Lowrie

Guerra, who managed to survive in the FSL at the tender age of 18, has the most upside of the group. He experienced the expected uptick in velocity to emerge as a top prospect last year, but he also dealt with his first round of shoulder troubles. He might blossom into a No. 2, but it’s no better than 30/70 that he enjoys a significant career.

Mulvey and Humber don’t have nearly as much upside. I’m probably a little lower on Mulvey and higher on Humber than most at this point. Both look like fourth starters to me, though some are starting to think that Humber won’t make it at all.

Masterson, a sinkerballer, is harder to get a read on. He overtook Michael Bowden to become Boston’s No. 2 pitching prospect in the final half of last year, but some still look at him as a reliever. I think he’s more of a No. 3, and like Mulvey, he could be ready to help in the second half of the season.

Lowrie is also something of a wild card. If he could stay at shortstop, his bat could make him an excellent regular. It’s more likely that he’ll end up at second, where he’ll be less exceptional.

I’ll cut this short, as all indications are that the Mets and Twins have agreed to the above deal. I think an Ellsbury package was better. A Lester-Crisp package probably wouldn’t have been. A Phil Hughes-Melky Cabrera package would have topped them all in my opinion, assuming the Yankees were willing to give up anyone of significance as a third player. If the Twins were going to deal with the Mets, they should have insisted on Fernando Martinez in the trade and stuck to it, even if it meant that Gomez wouldn’t be included. That Gomez was the best player in a deal for the game’s best pitcher makes new Twins GM Bill Smith’s early career defining move something just short of a disaster.