Assuming that Johan Santana officially becomes a Met before the Friday afternoon deadline, here’s what we’re looking at from a fantasy perspective:

- Santana should lose .25-.50 off his ERA and gain an additional 15-25 strikeouts. I had Santana going 18-7 with a 3.04 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 231 Ks in 225 IP for the Twins. As a Met, he’ll get something close to a 2.75 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 250 Ks for a projection. I’ll also give him a 19th victory. That will make him the No. 1 player on my board in an NL-only league. He’ll move past Jose Reyes as the No. 2 player in mixed leagues.

Continue reading "Santana trade ramifications" »

Posted by Matthew Pouliot at 03:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Started before the news of the probable deal came down and finished afterwards, here's the initial rundown of what the Mets received and could have received in the Santana deal.

Assuming the Yankees are truly out of it, it looks like the Santana sweepstakes will come down to the Mets and Red Sox. We have a pretty good idea that the Mets are offering Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber. We don’t know exactly where the Red Sox stand right now. It could be Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie or a similar offer with Jon Lester and Coco Crisp in place of Ellsbury. Let’s just assume that the Twins prefer a package built around Ellsbury. Barring a big change of heart from the Red Sox, they won’t be getting both him and Lester.

Continue reading "Mets vs. Red Sox: The battle for Johan" »

Posted by Matthew Pouliot at 04:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Assuming the deal goes down as Bedard for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman and another prospect or two, here’s what we’re looking at:

- Bedard’s arrival gives Seattle a legitimate ace in front of another potential No. 1 in Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista. Horacio Ramirez gets knocked out of the mix. If there are no takers in trade talks, he could be released in spring training before his $2.75 million salary becomes fully guaranteed.

Continue reading "Bedard trade repercussions" »

Posted by Matthew Pouliot at 03:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With the magazine gone to the printer and the online draft guide about to launch on Tuesday, I'm ready to resume blogging. I'm not sure about regular features yet, though I would like to do some keeper-type rankings as the spring goes on. One thing I will be doing regularly here is listing players whose draft guide projections have been updated.

This year's guide should be our best to date. Aaron Gleeman and I combined on over 1,000 profiles, and I've projected more than 1,400 players total. They'll be updated right through Opening Day, as will the top-250 lists for mixed, AL and NL leagues. Also, for the first time, I've done projected dollar rankings for future seasons (2009 and 2010). They weren't exactly scientific, but I think they provide nice guidelines for what we expect a player to do in the future.

There will be plenty of articles and other features as well. I don't think anyone who orders it will come away disappointed, and I'm definitely not just saying that because I want to make sure we outsell Rosenthal and company's football guide again.

Posted by Matthew Pouliot at 03:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

I love this idea. A minor league reliever is selling shares of stock in himself in an effort to raise money so he can concentrate on baseball during the offseason.

"It's a high-risk deal. I mean, IBM isn't going to blow out an elbow.”

Posted by Matthew Pouliot at 03:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

1. J.J. Putz
2. Jonathan Papelbon
3. Joe Nathan
4. Takashi Saito
5. Mariano Rivera
6. Francisco Rodriguez
7. Billy Wagner
8. Huston Street
9. Bobby Jenks
10. Trevor Hoffman

Probably no big surprises in the top 10, but Matt Capps almost beat out Hoffman for the last spot. I might have to drop Street a couple of spots based on what the Athletics are doing. I was waiting to see if he’d be the next to go. K-Rod falls from first a year ago to sixth now. It’s mostly a poor WHIP projection keeping him behind Saito and Rivera.

Top fives by category

Saves - Putz, K-Rod, Saito, Hoffman, Rivera
ERA - Papelbon, Putz, Rafael Soriano, Saito, Wagner
WHIP - Papelbon, Putz, Nathan, Street, Soriano
K’s - Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Marmol, Brad Lidge, K-Rod, Nathan

Posted by Matthew Pouliot at 05:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

No column this week, but I’ll have at least a couple of blog posts. I’m very much in the middle of the magazine blitz right now, so I’m not quite sure when the next column will be done. It’s going to be a review of my 2003 Top 150 Prospects. After that, I’ll be moving right on to by top-10s by team. I’ll dedicate six columns to them before posting the 2008 Top 150 Prospects in early March.

Here’s my preliminary top-10 third basemen:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Wright
3. Ryan Braun
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Chone Figgins
6. Aramis Ramirez
7. Garrett Atkins
8. Ryan Zimmerman
9. Chipper Jones
10. Adrian Beltre

I’ve given Cabrera a stronger projection than I did a year ago, when he just edged out Wright for the second spot in the rankings. Still, Braun ranked well ahead of him. Cabrera is still on the way up as a prospect, but he has to adapt to a whole new set of pitchers. Plus, there’s a legitimate difference in the level of competition between the two leagues right now.

Zimmerman could be the best value pick of the guys in the 5-10 range. Getting out of RFK will make a difference, and he’s likely to get more help from his teammates than he did last season.

Though I do think they deserve their spots in the top 10, I doubt I’ll end up with Jones or Beltre in any league. Once away from the elite third basemen, I’d rather gamble on Alex Gordon, Edwin Encarnacion, Hank Blalock or Josh Fields.

Posted by Matthew Pouliot at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)