Sports - Strike Zone w/ Matthew Pouliot: Ranking the Available SPs

I’ve received quite a few questions about last week’s column, as I always do when I start making up trades. Mostly, it’s “you’re crazy if you think my favorite team is giving up that much for…” And maybe I am. However, you have to give something to get something -- unless you’re dealing with Bill Bavasi -- and to get a superstar, you’re almost always going to have to overpay.

Part of the confusion over the trades I proposed I think stems from how I value the superstars. Let’s rank the possibly available top starting pitchers based strictly on 2007 performance.

Jake Peavy (77.0 VORP)
C.C. Sabathia (65.2)
Johan Santana (57.7)
Dan Haren (56.4)
Erik Bedard (54.9)
Scott Kazmir (47.2)
Joe Blanton (46.3)
A.J. Burnett (37.5)
Ben Sheets (31.4)
Noah Lowry (26.6)
Dontrelle Willis (0.7)

Now, here’s how I’d rank them for 2008, throwing out league and ballpark differences.

Santana
Peavy
Sabathia
Bedard
Haren
Kazmir
Burnett
Sheets
Blanton
Willis
Lowry

Finally, here’s how I’d rate them as trade properties, given each pitcher’s contract status.

Peavy - two years, $14 million
Haren - three years, $16.25 million
Kazmir - three years of arbitration (approx. $26 million)
Santana - one year, $13.25 million
Bedard - two years of arbitration (approx. $18 million)
Sabathia - one year, $9 million
Blanton - three years of arbitration (approx. $24 million)
Sheets - one year, $11 million
Lowry - three years, $13 million
Willis - two years of arbitration (approx. $20 million)
Burnett - one year, $12 million*

Burnett comes in at the bottom because of his ability to opt out of his contract. If he pitches well, he’s gone after one year. If he gets a hurt, a team will be stuck with him for 2009 and 2010 at $12 million per season.

I think ranking the top three over Santana is an easy call. For a team other than the Yankees or maybe the Red Sox and Mets, I could see placing Bedard over him, too. That said, the dynamic changes there with the possibility that the Twins could give a team a 72-hour window to sign Santana to an extension.

I’m as down on Lowry as anyone, but if happened to be a free agent right now, I think he’d be right there with Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse, with a four-year deal worth at least $9 million per season a possibility. Even with the season-ending elbow troubles, he’s quite a property.

So, if some of the deals for Peavy and Kazmir seem out of line, compared to what I have proposed for Santana leading off the column, it’s because I see them being more valuable. It’d be worth giving up one more top prospect for three years of Haren versus one year of Johan.