November 29, 2007
- Not only will Twins fans disappointed, but I can already see the conspiracy theories from Yankees fans if the Red Sox get Johan Santana from the Twins for Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden. While it puts me in the minority, I think that’s about what Santana is worth given that the contract extension he’s sure to demand. But whether the deal is fair or not, it sure seems as though the Twins are asking for a lot more from the Yankees and Dodgers. Maybe they see Lester as Matt Garza’s equal and Lowrie as a legitimate shortstop. I don’t. I’d take that over an Ian Kennedy-Melky Cabrera-Austin Jackson package from the Yankees, but if Phil Hughes is subbed in for Kennedy, that’d trump Boston’s current offer. I think the Twins should be holding out for Clay Buchholz over Lester if Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t going to be involved.
- This perceived slight difference between Dan Haren and Joe Blanton that the media keeps throwing out there needs to stop. With his contract, Haren ranks among the top 20 or 30 properties in baseball. Blanton is pretty valuable as well, but Haren has been the significantly better pitcher two years running and he has a far better strikeout rate, suggesting that easily he’s the superior bet for future success. Also, while both are under control for three years, Haren is locked in at $16.25 million, with Blanton is due at least $20 million and probably closer to $25 million in arbitration if he stays at his current level.
- I had Haren going to the Mets in my trade proposals column last week, but in light of recent revelations regarding Oakland’s feelings about Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman, I think that’s pretty unlikely now. The Mets have a much better chance of landing Blanton.
- If the Twins are going to give up on 2008, then Joe Nathan will follow Johan Santana out the door. Michael Cuddyer has to be considered another candidate to go since he’s due about $6 million next year and is two years away from free agency. Cuddyer to San Diego for third baseman Chase Headley would make plenty of sense for both teams. The market for Nathan may not be as strong as expected unless some large-market teams are willing to pursue him as a setup man. Think about a Nathan/Rivera or Nathan/Papelbon one-two punch. The Brewers have made it pretty clear that they’re not going to part with a top talent and then lose Nathan after a year like they did Francisco Cordero. At 33, Nathan is older than most realize. Still, if he turns in another strong year, he’s going to receive at least four years and $52 million next winter.
November 28, 2007
The offseason of surprises continues. There were rumors of Young for Garza before the deal got done, but I didn’t think it was really going to happen, something I stated twice on the site. In that way, it reminds me of the Hafner-for-Einar Diaz and Kazmir-for-Zambrano trades. I bashed both rumors as unrealistic, yet the reporters were right all along and the deals got done.
Continue reading "Thoughts on Young for Garza" »
November 23, 2007
I’ve received quite a few questions about last week’s column, as I always do when I start making up trades. Mostly, it’s “you’re crazy if you think my favorite team is giving up that much for…” And maybe I am. However, you have to give something to get something -- unless you’re dealing with Bill Bavasi -- and to get a superstar, you’re almost always going to have to overpay.
Part of the confusion over the trades I proposed I think stems from how I value the superstars. Let’s rank the possibly available top starting pitchers based strictly on 2007 performance.
Continue reading "Ranking the Available SPs" »
"The only positive thing I can think of about Hitler’s time on earth–I’m sure he would have eliminated all bloggers." -- Bill Conlin
If everything said here on Crashburn Alley is true, doesn’t Bill Conlin deserve the Imus treatment? It may not be truly racist, but it's horribly insensitive, and as much as anything else, it shows just how out of touch the old fart really is.
It really is a Black Friday this time. Condolences go out to Joe Kennedy’s family following his passing. Kennedy was never the best-conditioned guy on the field, but for a professional athlete to die suddenly at age 28 is terribly shocking. It looks like MLB.com’s biography is out of date, and he had a one-year-old son with his wife, Jami.
- The Reds are involved in serious talks with free agent Francisco Cordero, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports.
Rosenthal says the Brewers are at $42 million for four years, and I don’t see why Cordero would switch teams given similar offers. The Reds might have to go to $55 million over five years to get this done. If it happens, David Weathers would become the eighth-inning guy, with Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Mike Stanton working earlier in games. Todd Coffey remains a candidate to be traded.
Continue reading "Thoughts on Black Friday" »
November 19, 2007
Didn’t see this one coming. Clearly, the Angels didn’t love Orlando Cabrera as much as I believed. I’ll blame Physioc and Hudler for that. I already fault them for the weak American Dollar, Hurricane Katrina and the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. It’s just one more for the list.
Continue reading "Thoughts on Cabrera for Garland" »
November 15, 2007
- I’m not going to say $275 million for 10 years is a steal for the Yankees, but those in the media -- and a select few owners -- that weren’t smart enough to realize that A-Rod is worth $30 million per year right now really missed the boat. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan points out that MLB teams paid just under $2.5 billion in salary in 2007. That was about 41 percent of total revenues. In 2001, it was 56 percent. In 1992, it was 52 percent. The NFL, NBA and NHL are all over 50 percent. Baseball players as a whole are underpaid by at least 10 and probably 20 percent. There were several teams that truly had the money to pay $30 million per year for A-Rod. Most simply figured -- rightly or wrongly -- that they’d make more money without him.
- With A-Rod back in New York, I have to revise some of my free agent predictions from Monday’s column. I had Torii Hunter coming to New York, presumably with Melky Cabrera being moved for pitching. Now I’d put Hunter in Texas.
- Lowell to the Yankees as a first baseman might be the worst idea I’ve heard this winter. The Yankees would be giving $56 million-$60 million to a 34-year-old and then taking away most of his defensive value and putting him in a ballpark that’s much less kind to his stroke. Lowell hit .276/.339/.428 away from Fenway last season (though he was a lot better on the road in 2006). Overall, Lowell has posted a .286/.347/.464 line the last four years, averaging 19 homers and 86 RBI per year. Even if he stays the same and doesn’t decline like the vast majority of the players in their mid-30s, he’d be worth about $6 million-$8 million per season as a first baseman. A Wilson Betemit/Shelley Duncan platoon would have a reasonable shot of outproducing him.
Brett Harper - 1B Mets - Harper, a left-handed hitter, bounced back from a lost year in 2006 by hitting .296/.350/.500 in Double-A. Brian’s son has major league power and has displayed the ability to hit for average. Unfortunately, he’s 26 and he doesn’t have much more room for improvement. He’d probably fall short of being an adequate platoon first baseman or DH.
Joe Hietpas - RHP Mets - The Mets’ No. 3 catcher back in Sept. 2004, Hietpas is now trying to work his way back as a knuckleballer. Had a 2.47 ERA and a 22/9 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings for Single-A St. Lucie.
Continue reading "Minor League Free Agents (4)" »
November 14, 2007
Brian Bass - RHP Twins - Ex-Kansas City prospect went 7-3 with a 3.48 ERA, 96 H and 80/24 K/BB in 103 1/3 IP while splitting time between the rotation and the pen for Triple-A Rochester. Currently 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in seven starts in the Venezuelan Winter League. Bass has a below average fastball, but his changeup prevents him from being totally helpless against lefties. He might be middle-relief material.
Brooks Conrad - INF Astros - Slipped from .267/.334/.534 to .218/.305/.420 in Triple-A last season, causing the Astros to drop him from their 40-man roster. Still offers rare power for a utility guy. Unfortunately, he’s below average defensively at both second and third and he should never be asked to play shortstop.
Continue reading "Minor League Free Agents (3)" »
Since this is the first offseason in which I haven't done Rotoworld's offseason morning news -- I'm still doing weekends, but Aaron Gleeman is taking care of the weekdays -- I plan on occasionally posting my take on some of the morning blurbs here in the blog. This seemed like an especially good day to start.
News - According to the New York Daily News, Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees "have been discussing a deal for the past few days to keep the two-time MVP in pinstripes."
My take - 10 years, $290 million seems to be on everyone's lips. That would allow A-Rod to save face by again landing the biggest contract ever, and the Yankees would get to stay under the magical $30 million barrier. A-Rod is worth over $30 million per season right now, but it's doubtful that he will be in the back half of the deal. Of course, by 2013, the Yankees could be hauling in twice what they are now and it might not matter very much if A-Rod is hauling in $29 million when he's only worth $15 million-$20 million. There's no good reason for this not to happen. Sure, the Yankees said daily for months and months that it wouldn't work out this way, but a year from now, no one is going to care that they went back on their word.
Continue reading "11/14 Morning News" »
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