October 31, 2007
Kazuhisa Ishii - LHP - Ishii, who had a 4.44 ERA in 102 starts and three relief appearances in the majors from 2002-05, has been a disappointment since returning to Japan. He went 9-10 with a 4.16 ERA in 2007. It’s highly unlikely that he’d look to return to the U.S.
Satoru Kanemura - RHP - Kanemura is the one free agent from Trey Hillman’s Nippon Ham Fighters with any chance of crossing the Pacific. Most famous for getting roughed up by Julio Zuleta after the first baseman charged the mound in April 2006, Kanemura peaked from 2002-2005. The 31-year-old disappointed last season with shoulder troubles and wasn’t much better in 2006. With just 90 strikeouts in 213 innings the last two years, he seems like a poor bet. Still, there’s a chance he’d surprise as a reliever.
Masahide Kobayashi - RHP - Arguably the top reliever available, Kobayashi, 33, has saved 227 games in Japan. His 3.61 ERA in 2007 was his highest mark in three years. 2.95 ERA, 116/29 K/BB ratio in 146 1/3 IP the last three seasons. 90-92 mph fastball. Very good 82-83 mph splitter/forkball. Unlike most American relievers, he throws from the stretch with none on. Little deception in his delivery. He could close for a team in the U.S., but contenders will likely look at him as a setup man. Some team should be willing to go to $15 million over three years.
Shinya Miyamoto - SS - Hit .304/.337/.374 and .300/.338/.384 the last two years. With Tomohiro Nioka ineligible for free agency, it’s unlikely any MLB teams will turn to Japan for middle-infield help this winter. Miyamoto, the captain of Team Japan in the 2004 Olympics, has the ability to play in the U.S., but at age 37, he probably wouldn’t be viewed as an everyday shortstop by any team. There’s no reason to think he’d want to jump now anyway.
Yasuhiko Yabuta - RHP - Failed starter has posted ERAs of 2.79, 3.07, 2.62 and 2.73 while helping set up for Kobayashi the last four years. 64 hits allowed, 10 walks and 45 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings in 2007. 34 years old. White Sox are believed to be interested in him as a setup man.
The first trade of the offseason included a player expected to be dealt in Edgar Renteria and a prospect in Jair Jurrjens frequently mentioned in rumors, but it was still shocking how quickly it came together. As a clearly superior choice than any available free agent shortstop, Renteria's market should have been at least as strong as a month as it was Monday. Still, the Braves declined to wait and see what might have been offered up by the Cubs, Cardinals, White Sox or Giants.
With Renteria in the fold, the Tigers could be looking at a lineup of:
Continue reading "Thoughts on Renteria to Detroit" »
October 29, 2007
This week’s column should be up sometime Tuesday. I have a couple of blog entries planned first. This first one is a rundown of contenders for Alex Rodriguez, 1 though 30.
1. Giants - $50 million off the books this winter and a desperate need for a superstar to replace Bonds. The only negative is that they’re further away from having a championship contender than the other possibilities.
2. Angels - An A-Rod signing would make them instant favorites to go to the World Series next year. Still, indications are that the Angels aren’t ready to tie up $30 million per year on a single player. I’m guessing they’ll warm to the idea once they realize how much lesser talents are going to cost this winter.
3. Tigers - The Tigers have gotten tight with Scott Boras over the last few years, and they have a need on the left side on the infield, whether it’s at third base or shortstop (I think Brandon Inge could play short if A-Rod doesn’t want to). Maybe they’re capped out on what they can do financially, but with a World Series at stake, Illitch should check under the couch cushions and see what he can come up with.
Continue reading "Ranking A-Rod's Destinations, 1-30" »
October 28, 2007
8:25 p.m. - Jon Lester versus Aaron Cook in Game 4. The only change to either lineup was the Rockies playing Ryan Spilborghs in center. Despite his struggles, Brad Hawpe will remain in right against the lefty.
8:28 p.m. - For the record, Hawpe hit .214/.283/.397 against lefties this year, while Willy Taveras was at .371/.417/.461. Obviously, the Rockies are also better defensively with Taveras in center and Spilborghs in right.
8:31 p.m - Yet another Ellsbury double starts the game for Boston. He's making a case for MVP honors despite not doing much the first two games. Right now, I'd say Pedroia is the favorite. However, Beckett would probably be the choice if it goes to a Game 5 and he picks up another win.
8:32 p.m. - Pedroia's little chopper to third advances Ellsbury. Good baserunning from the rookie. The scary thing is that Ellsbury could win a World Series MVP and then potentially Rookie of the Year honors in the following season.
8:33 p.m. - Ortiz grounds the first pitch he sees through the drawn-in infield, making it 1-0 Boston. That would have been an out to the second baseman the way most teams play him. However, the Rockies haven't used a shift.
8:35 p.m. - So far Cook is throwing 88 mph and not getting the ball down in his first outing since August. He's usually pretty consistently in the low-90s when he's right.
8:36 p.m. - Manny finally grounds into the first double play of the series for Boston. The Red Sox hit into six in three games against the Angels and 14 in seven games against the Indians. They've kept putting plenty of baserunners on versus the Rockies, but they've been hitting flyballs with men on base, not grounders.
8:40 p.m. - Matsui pops up a 1-1 pitch for an out, and Tulo goes hacking at the first pitch, fouling it off. The Rockies really need to be patient tonight. Lester will walk guys and get his pitch count up, and the Red Sox aren't going to want to go to Okajima or Timlin in the fifth inning tonight. If the Rockies play their cards right, both Kyle Snyder and Eric Gagne could get into this one.
8:42 p.m. - Tulo strikes swinging on a 2-2 pitch out of the zone. He argued that he tipped the ball, but it didn't matter, as Varitek caught it on the fly.
8:44 p.m. - Holliday swings at a 1-0 breaking ball out of the zone. The next pitch is a fastball grounded the other way for an out. Quick first inning for Lester. If the Red Sox can get six innings of three-run ball from the lefty tonight, they'd be thilled.
Continue reading "World Series Diary - Game 4" »
October 27, 2007
8:10 p.m. - A must-win for the Rockies with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Fogg on the mound for Saturday's Game 3. Matsuzaka did not face the Rockies during the regular-season series in June. Fogg did and picked up a win after allowing two runs and seven hits in five innings at Fenway. He was 5-4 with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP at Coors Field this year. The Rockies as a whole are batting .298/.372/.480 at home and .261/.336/.395 on the road.
8:12 p.m. - Interestingly, one of the few Rockies to do better on the road was Cory Sullivan, who is being inserted into the lineup in Willy Taveras' place tonight. Sullivan hit .254/.296/.299 in 67 AB at home, while Taveras was at .330/.368/.408 in 179 AB. I'm not in favor of the switch. Hurdle certainly wouldn't be trying it if Taveras had two hits Thursday and he probably wouldn't be doing it if Taveras had even one hit.
8:18 p.m. - And what's more American than throwing in a promo for the new album right before singing the anthem?
8:22 p.m. - I guess it'd be tough to get away with actually stitching on an advertisement, but surely Chevy has at least explored the idea of projecting it's logo onto one of those giant outfield American flags, right?
8:28 p.m. - If the Red Sox win tonight, it'd give them their first six-game winning streak of 2007. Postseason only, they've had nothing but streaks since 2004: three wins, three losses, eight wins, three losses, four wins, three losses and five wins.
8:36 p.m. - Two pitches in before Buck calls a fastball a breaking ball. He's on his game already.
8:37 p.m. - Ellsbury works the count full and then gets a single with a 45-foot swinging bunt down the third-base line. Let's hope the Red Sox don't bunt.
Continue reading "Saturday's World Series Game 3 Diary" »
October 26, 2007
Takahiro Arai - 3B/1B - .305/.353/.603 line in 2005 is looking more and more like a career year. Hit .299/.336/.479 and .290/.351/.480 for Hiroshima the last two years. Right-handed hitter. Career 849/292 K/BB ratio in 3899 AB makes him look like the Japanese Tony Batista. That he’s just 30 means some team might be willing to take a chance on him. However, he’s likely to do better financially by staying home.
Takeo Kawamura - RHP - Age 35. Converted into a reliever in 2004 after injuries reduced his effectiveness as a starter. ERAs of 3.07, 2.31, 3.86 and 3.60 since. Allowed 55 hits, walked 23 and struck out 53 in 55 IP this year. No idea about his stuff or whether he’s interested in switching leagues.
Hiroki Kuroda - RHP - The top free-agent starter available. Kuroda went 12-8 with a 3.56 ERA, 176 H and 123/42 K/BB in 179 2/3 IP this year. He had a 1.85 ERA in 2006, but that’s the only year he’s been under 3.00. 6.7 K’s per 9 IP throughout his career. Kuroda features a legitimate low-90s fastball. Neither his slider nor his forkball/change stands out as a true strikeout pitch. From what little I’ve seen, I think he’s more of a No. 4 than a No. 3. Still, he’s coming to the U.S. and he could get paid as a No. 3.
Tomonori Maeda - OF - Hit .285/.327/.435 in 2007, his worst season in six years. Batted .319/.376/.546 in 2005 and .314/.371/.511 in 2006. One of Japan’s toolsiest players in his prime, Maeda is 36 now. He would have been an interesting pickup for an MLB team just a couple of years ago. Now he figures to finish his career in Japan.
Daisuke Miura - RHP - Long one of Japan’s most reliable starters. Debuted in 1992 at age 18. Now 34, he’s coming off a season in which he went 11-13 with a 3.06 ERA, 184 H and 159/51 K/BB in 185 1/3 IP. Best year was 2005, when he had a 2.52 ERA and 177 strikeouts in 214 2/3 IP. High-80s fastball. Less deception in his delivery than many Japanese pitchers (apparently, he had to get rid of a second hitch in his motion). There’s been no talk about him coming over to the U.S., and he probably wouldn’t fare particularly well if he did.
October 25, 2007
8:15 p.m. - Jimenez versus Schilling at Fenway Park tonight. The only lineup change for either team was an Ellsbury-Lugo switch at the bottom of the Boston order. With a righty on the mound for Colorado, Ellsbury is batting eighth ahead of Lugo.
8:32 p.m. - With a 1-2 count to start the game, Taveras gets hit on the hand by a pitch that appeared to catch the inside corner. It was high, so it wasn't a strike. Regardless, those shouldn't be HBPs.
8:36 p.m. - Matsui flies out for the first out of the game, but the at-bat highlights Schilling's struggles to put batters away after getting to two strikes. That's the big difference between Schilling now and Schilling three years ago.
8:37 p.m. - Taveras runs on a 1-0 pitch to Holliday, but it's fouled off. Holliday hits one down the third-base line that Lowell can't grab but knocks down. Schilling is too slow to cover third, so Taveras and Holliday both advance. Already sloppy play from the Red Sox. With Schilling no longer as much of a strikeout guy, the Red Sox simply can't let the Rockies take extra bases like that.
8:40 p.m. - With the infield back, Helton's routine grounder to first scores Taveras.
8:42 p.m. - Atkins grounds to third for the third out of the inning. The Rockies got two breaks in the frame. There's a good chance they'll regret turning them into just one run.
8:44 p.m. - As Scott points out in the comments, the Red Sox also flip-flopped Drew and Varitek in the order tonight. I forgot they were the other way around against the lefty last night.
Continue reading "Thursday's World Series Game 2 Diary" »
October 24, 2007
8:00 p.m. - Game 1 of the World Series is still a half hour away. Good thing I don't have a real job to get up for in the morning. Josh Beckett versus Jeff Francis tonight. Beckett had his worst start of the year (6 ER in 5 IP) to take a loss when the Rockies went to Fenway and won two out of three back in June. Francis outdueled him then, throwing five scoreless innings despite allowing seven hits and walkling two. The Red Sox were outscored 20-5 in the series. The Rockies went on to sweep the Yankees at home the following week.
8:05 p.m. - I'm not sure the last time home-field advantage meant this much in a postseason series. The Red Sox and Rockies traditionally have two of the biggest advantages in the game. It didn't show up quite as much for Boston this year, as it was only six games better at Fenway. The Rockies, though, were 11 1/2 games better at Coors. They had a home OPS of 853 and a road OPS of 730. The Red Sox were at 844 at home and 768 on the road. Of course, it's not just the ballparks in this one, but the DH factor is huge. The Rockies will get right-handers in all four road games, leaving them without a quality DH option. They're going with Ryan Spilborghs (767 OPS vs. righties) tonight. If he goes hitless, it'd be no surprise to see them try Seth Smith tomorrow. The Red Sox, meanwhile, might not know until Saturday whether David Ortiz will be able to start at first base in Coors. His availability could be a day-to-day decision.
8:15 p.m. - I picked Boston in five, but they're in big trouble if they don't win tonight. Since it's a home game and Beckett is on the mound, this is the most lopsided matchup of the series. Thursday's Game 2 looks like the Rockies' best chance for stealing one at Fenway. Schilling will be on four days' rest, and Jimenez can shut the Red Sox down if he's on his game. I think Colorado needs to be up 3-1 after four games to have much of a shot. Winning two of the last three versus Beckett, Schilling on extra rest and then Matsuzaka (with Beckett and everyone else in relief) would prove to be extremely difficult.
Continue reading "Wednesday's World Series Game 1 Diary" »
October 23, 2007
Here's the first of two or three batches of brief profiles on the key Japanese free agents.
Kosuke Fukudome - OF - The prize. At 30, Fukudome is the youngest Japanese player currently eligible for free agency. Hit .294/.443/.520 in 348 AB before knee surgery ended his 2007 season. Should be fully recovered for 2008. Hit .351/.438/.653 with 31 HR in 2006. .400 OBPs five of the last six years. Quality defensive right fielder with experience in center. While there’s been some talk that the knee could cause him to stay in Japan for one more year so that he can rebuild his value, he should be able to get at least a three-year, $30 million contract this winter. Think J.D. Drew without such major durability issues or the huge year-to-year variation in numbers.
Masafumi Hirai - RHP - 32-year-old righty reliever. 3.29 ERA, 30/10 K.BB ratio, .233 average against in 41 IP in 2007. 2.29 ERA, 44/16 K/BB, .220 average against in 63 IP in 2006. Has a Dice-K-type pause at the top of his delivery. Used to throw in the low-90s, not sure whether he still does. No indication whether he’s thinking of leaving Japan.
Hitoki Iwase - LHP - The No. 2 reliever available behind oabayashi. 33-year-old left-hander with 129 saves the last three years. 2.44 ERA, 50/9 K/BB ratio in 59 IP in 2007. 1.88 and 1.30 ERAs the previous two years. .226 average against over the last three years. Deceptive motion. 86-90 mph fastball, slider. Iwase is very likely to come to MLB and should be a top-notch setup man or a closer as a rookie.
Yoshinobu Takahashi - OF - Coming off his best season at age 32. Hit .308/.404/.579 with 35 HR and 99 RBI in 503 AB for the Yomiuri Giants. Right fielder and left-handed batter. Big leg kick at the plate. Previous best OPS was an 867 in 2004. Has had injury issues (2007 was the first time he had played in 120 games since 2001), and it’s doubtful he’d show the same kind of power in the U.S. that he has in Japan. I haven’t heard anything to suggest that he’s thinking of making the jump.
The list of NPB free agents was revealed Monday, and lo and behold, three of the five players I included in my winter free agents columns are nowhere to be found. As it turns out, only Kosuke Fukudome and Hitoki Iwase are included in the list of 68 players. Koji Uehara, Kenshin Kawakami and Tomohiro Nioka are absent.
I knew there was some controversy over whether Uehara would be there, but I thought the other two were givens. Kawakami has actually played 10 years, but apparently injuries have left him short of the nine full years of service time required. He's 32 and he's thrown 1,525 innings over the last decade, but he still doesn't control his own destiny. Imagine if MLB had similar rules regarding the DL and service time. Gil Meche wouldn't have only been a Mariner this year, but he'd still be under control for 2008. He pitched a mere 815 innings in the majors before he became a free agent.
Both Uehara and Nioka play for the Yomiuri Giants, essentially the Yankees of Japan, so there's really no chance of either being posted. I haven't heard anything on whether Kawakami might be. He has indicated in the past that he'd like to pitch in the U.S. The problem there is that Kawakami plays for the same team as Fukudome and Iwase, the Chunichi Dragons. If the Dragons lose two of their other best players, it's hard to see how they could part with Kawakami as well.
I'll be writing profiles on some of the available Japanese players over the next few days.
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