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August 07, 2008

Broadway Brett

Just when you thought the Brett Favre saga was tougher to kill than Jack Bauer, we finally received a resolution late Wednesday night. The man who for the past 15 years has personified the Green Bay Packers is headed for the Big Apple.

Brett Favre is a New York Jet.

Jets fans are elated. Instead of going into the season with the unsightly duo of Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens, they now have a future Hall of Famer who is still one of the top QBs in the game – as evidenced by his second-place finish in the MVP balloting last year. Meanwhile, many Packer fans feel like Martin Riggs at the end of “Lethal Weapon 2” – bloodied, near death and wondering what the future holds.

As I wrote last week, I hope Ted Thompson knows what he’s doing. On the surface, his decision to kick Favre to the curb makes little sense given how his team has Super Bowl aspirations. The pressure on Aaron Rodgers was already immense but it’s skyrocketed now. What little margin for error he may have had before has vanished. If he struggles, it’s going to get ugly in Green Bay. If he struggles and Favre shines with the Jets, there may be nowhere for Thompson, Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy to hide.

From a fantasy perspective, this is a huge boost for the Jets’ key offensive players. I have bumped Thomas Jones up to 21st among RBs while also elevating Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Chris Baker and Dustin Keller as well. Of that group, the player whose value could be impacted the most is Cotchery.

I have been pimping Cotchery hard for months. He finished 19th in WR scoring in the National Fantasy Football Championship last year and that was with Pennington and Clemens attempting to complete passes in his direction. With Favre under center, Cotchery could see his production increase considerably.

Unfortunately, this likely means he will no longer be a quality value pick. According to the data on MockDraftCentral.com, Cotchery’s current Average Draft Position in NFFC drafts is 81. That means you can draft a potential Top 20 WR as your WR3 in the sixth round. That’s great value. But I don’t expect that to last. I expect Cotchery and Coles to both see their values increase now that Favre is in town. So if you want one or both of them, you may have to be aggressive in your pursuit.

Speaking of being aggressive, if you want to flex your muscle and compete in the industry’s first multi-city, high-stakes football event, there is still time to sign up but spots are running out. Registration for the 14-team National Fantasy Football Championship and the 12-team NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship ends on Aug. 24. Spots remain in all four cities (Las Vegas, New York, Orlando and Chicago) and we also have a phone option available for those who want to participate but can’t make the trip to one of those cities. With league prizes of $5,000, overall prizes of $100,000 and a possible $1 million bonus, why wouldn’t you want to take part?

Be aggressive. Play to win. That’s what the Jets did when they traded for Favre and that’s what you can do if you sign up for one – or both – of our events today.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC or call 800-726-9966 ext. 13284 to get signed up today to reserve a spot before the events sell out.

August 02, 2008

Analyzing Another Expert League Draft

By Tom Kessenich

I took part in an Experts League draft last week which will be featured on a syndicated TV show called "Fantasy Huddle." The show is available in Time Warner Cable markets all across the country and this draft featured a number of heavy hitters in the industry, including FantasyGuru.com's John Hansen (the defending champ who also had the No. 1 pick), RotoWorld's Greg Rosenthal, RotoWire's Chris Liss, YahooSports' Brandon Funston, MockDraftCentral.com's Geoff Stein and GameDaySolutions.net's Brian Swaw, who is also a competitor in the National Fantasy Football Championship.

This will be a live league featuring PPR with a starting roster of QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, Flex, TE, K and Defense with a six-player bench. This was a good look at where players are being valued with camps now underway. For those already in the 12-team NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship or thinking about signing up (and if you haven't signed up already, what are you waiting for - spots are running out so don't delay, sign up today), this is a good tool to use with your Draft Day preparations even though this draft awarded full point-per-reception for RBs, unlike the 0.5 points RBs get in our NBC event.

Here's a look at the draft with my analysis. My picks are in bold.

ROUND ONE
1,Tomlinson,LaDainian,RB,SD
2,Westbrook,Brian,RB,PHI
3,Jackson,Steven,RB,STL
4,Addai,Joseph,RB,IND
5,Peterson,Adrian,RB,MIN
6,Moss,Randy,WR,NE
7,Barber,Marion,RB,DAL
8,Gore,Frank,RB,SF
9,Portis,Clinton,RB,WAS
10,Wayne,Reggie,WR,IND
11,Johnson,Larry,RB,KC
12,Bush,Reggie,RB,NO

Analysis: Jackson's holdout is cause for some concern but I think it's pretty minor at this point and it wasn't worth passing on his immense potential in a PPR format to take someone I have ranked lower. Surprisingly, Tom Brady did not go in the first round and Reggie Bush went 12th. I love Bush in a PPR format but 12th is too early for him.

ROUND TWO
13,Colston,Marques,WR,NO
14,Lynch,Marshawn,RB,BUF
15,Owens,Terrell,WR,DAL
16,Johnson,Andre,WR,HOU
17,McGahee,Willis,RB,BAL
18,Brady,Tom,QB,NE
19,Fitzgerald,Larry,WR,ARI
20,Edwards,Braylon,WR,CLE
21,Smith,Steve,WR,CAR
22,Johnson,Chad,WR,CIN
23,Jones-Drew,M,RB,JAC
24,Houshmandzadeh,T.J,WR,CIN

Analysis: I was VERY tempted to take Ryan Grant given how I view him as a Top 10 RB in all formats this year. But I really wanted to secure strength at WR given its importance in PPR leagues so I went with Chad Johnson. If Grant had fallen to the third, I would've grabbed him but I knew he wouldn't get past Hansen at 25. As you can see, the second round is when the WRs start flying off the board so if you want to get a top one this is likely the round you'll have to pounce.

ROUND THREE
25,Grant,Ryan,RB,GB
26,Holt,Torry,WR,STL
27,Boldin,Anquan,WR,ARI
28,Turner,Michael,RB,ATL
29,Maroney,Laurence,RB,NE
30,Lewis,Jamal,RB,CLE
31,Welker,Wes,WR,NE
32,Brees,Drew,QB,NO
33,Manning,Peyton,QB,IND
34,Romo,Tony,QB,DAL
35,Jones,Thomas,RB,NYJ
36,Brown,Ronnie,RB,MIA

Analysis: The WR talent is already starting to thin out but I love Boldin as a WR2 in PPR leagues so I happily took him. Manning at 33 is great value but I'm not big on Maroney this year at all. There is way too much competition in the NE backfield and as we saw last season, the Patriots do not feel compelled to lean on Maroney.

ROUND FOUR
37,Burress,Plaxico,WR,NYG
38,Williams,Roy,WR,DET
39,Jacobs,Brandon,RB,NYG
40,Stewart,Jonathan,RB,CAR
41,Jennings,Greg,WR,GB
42,Witten,Jason,TE,DAL
43,Winslow,Kellen,TE,CLE
44,McFadden,Darren,RB,OAK
45,Holmes,Santonio,WR,PIT
46,Graham,Earnest,RB,TB
47,Gates,Antonio,TE,SD
48,Palmer,Carson,QB,CIN

Analysis: I may be the only person in the industry who likes Graham but I do. If I'm wrong, I'm going down in flames but so be it. I think he proved last season that he can excel as the starter and I simply don't believe Warrick Dunn has the stuff to seriously take meaningful carries away from him. I continue to love Graham's value. I think McFadden is nice value here as well since I believe he'll be a Top 20 RB. Gates as the third TE drafted is interesting and clearly a reflection of his shaky injury status.

ROUND FIVE
49,Parker,Willie,RB,PIT
50,Johnson,Calvin,WR,DET
51,Roethlisberger,Ben,QB,PIT
52,White,Roddy,WR,ATL
53,Bowe,Dwayne,WR,KC
54,James,Edgerrin,RB,ARI
55,Harrison,Marvin,WR,IND
56,Smith,Kevin,RB,DET
57,Cotchery,Jerricho,WR,NYJ
58,Marshall,Brandon,WR,DEN
59,Johnson,Rudi,RB,CIN
60,White,LenDale,RB,TEN

Analysis: My goal this year as it has been the past few is to secure a strong starting QB. With so few to choose from this year, that becomes even more paramount. I think Roethlisberger is poised for a monster year and he was the top QB on my board so I happily took him. I'm not big on Willie Parker this year with Mendenhall poised to potentially take a big chunk of his touches so I would've waited another round or two on him. I like the value on Edge a lot as well as Roddy White in this round. If you want Marvin Harrison, I don't think you can wait past the fifth round and he will keep moving up if the reports continue to be positive about his health.

ROUND SIX
61,Hasselbeck,Matt,QB,SEA
62,Evans,Lee,WR,BUF
63,Taylor,Fred,RB,JAC
64,Coles,Laveranues,WR,NYJ
65,Gonzalez,Tony,TE,KC
66,Young,Selvin,RB,DEN
67,Anderson,Derek,QB,CLE
68,Ward,Hines,WR,PIT
69,Forte,Matt,RB,CHI
70,Driver,Donald,WR,GB
71,Mendenhall,Rashard,RB,PIT
72,Curtis,Kevin,WR,PHI

Analysis: With 26 WRs off the board, I'll happily take Driver as my WR3 in a PPR league. I was tempted by Curtis, though, but Driver is more proven and I have to believe he'll catch more than 2 TDs this season. I was hoping Mendenhall would fall to me in the seventh so I like the pick here.

ROUND SEVEN
73,Chambers,Chris,WR,SD
74,Moss,Santana,WR,WAS
75,Jones,Felix,RB,DAL
76,Burleson,Nate,WR,SEA
77,McNabb,Donovan,QB,PHI
78,Jones,Julius,RB,SEA
79,Gonzalez,Anthony,WR,IND
80,Galloway,Joey,WR,TB
81,Shockey,Jeremy,TE,NYG
82,Taylor,Chester,RB,MIN
83,Bulger,Marc,QB,STL
84,Cooley,Chris,TE,WAS

Analysis: With my QBs, RBs and WRs set I was looking for some upside and Felix Jones has plenty of it. The Cowboys love him and plan to use him all over the place, making him a very nice pick in a PPR league. If McNabb can stay healthy, he's a great value pick in this round. But that's a big "if."

ROUND EIGHT
85,Berrian,Bernard,WR,MIN
86,Brown,Reggie,WR,PHI
87,Stallworth,Donte,WR,CLE
88,Engram,Bobby,WR,SEA
89,Walker,Javon,WR,OAK
90,Bradshaw,Ahmad,RB,NYG
91,Cutler,Jay,QB,DEN
92,Clark,Dallas,TE,IND
93,Crumpler,Alge,TE,TEN
94,Mason,Derrick,WR,BAL
95,Johnson,Chris,RB,TEN
96,Williams,DeAngelo,RB,CAR

Analysis: I was really hoping to get Engram in this round but it didn't happen. That said, I think Mason's a solid WR4. I don't expect him to top 100 receptions again but he's still the No. 1 WR for the Ravens and that should get him plenty of targets. I like Bradshaw in this round and I think Berrian is a fine value pick.

ROUND NINE
97,Daniels,Owen,TE,HOU
98,Garrard,David,QB,JAC
99,Morris,Maurice,RB,SEA
100,Schaub,Matt,QB,HOU
101,Manning,Eli,QB,NYG
102,Johnson,Bryant,WR,SF
103,Torain,Ryan,RB,DEN
104,Davis,Vernon,TE,SF
105,Fargas,Justin,RB,OAK
106,Rice,Ray,RB,BAL
107,Rivers,Philip,QB,SD
108,Delhomme,Jake,QB,CAR

Analysis: As I wrote in my blog the other day, I'm big on Maurice Morris this year as a value pick. I've snapped him up in a few leagues already and as a RB4 you can't go wrong if he ends up splitting time with Julius Jones. I like Owen Daniels quite a bit but I thought it was too soon for Schaub, Fargas and Rice.

ROUND TEN
109,McAllister,Deuce,RB,NO
110,Jackson,Vincent,WR,SD
111,Williams,Reggie,WR,JAC
112,Porter,Jerry,WR,JAC
113,Crayton,Patrick,WR,DAL
114,Watson,Kenny,RB,CIN
115,Gage,Justin,WR,TEN
116,Minnesota ,DEF,MIN
117,Young,Vince,QB,TEN
118,Heap,Todd,TE,BAL
119,San Diego, DEF,SD
120,Jackson,Darrell,WR,DEN

Analysis: I'm gambling that Heap will stay healthy. If he can, this is a major steal. If he gets hurt again, my TE position will likely stink all season long. I think Gage and Crayton are solid WRs, but I don't really like any of the others taken in this round.

ROUND ELEVEN
121,Green,Ahman,RB,HOU
122,Curry,Ronald,WR,OAK
123,Bruce,Isaac,WR,SF
124,Rice,Sidney,WR,MIN
125,Thomas,Pierre,RB,NO
126,Brown,Chris,RB,HOU
127,Hester,Devin,WR,CHI
128,Norwood,Jerious,RB,ATL
129,Williams,Ricky,RB,MIA
130,Betts,Ladell,RB,WAS
131,Hackett,D.J.,WR,CAR
132,Rhodes,Dominic,RB,IND

Analysis: I saw Isaac Bruce in line for the new X-Files film the other day and he got in for half price due to a senior citizen's discount. But he is the No. 1 WR in S.F. and we know Mike Martz trusts him so as a WR5 why not? I like the value on Ricky Williams and Pierre Thomas in this round a lot more than Ahman Green. I know Green's a starter, but how long will he stay healthy?

ROUND TWELVE
133,Ginn Jr.,Ted, WR,MIA
134,Jones,Kevin,RB,CHI
135,Rodgers,Aaron,QB,GB
136,Clayton,Mark,WR,BAL
137,Kitna,Jon,QB,DET
138,Hardy,James,WR,BUF
139,Jackson,Brandon,RB,GB
140,Booker,Lorenzo,RB,PHI
141,Meachem,Robert,WR,NO
142,Campbell,Jason,QB,WAS
143,Washington,Leon,RB,NYJ
144,Miller,Heath,TE,PIT

Analysis: I was starting to target Brett Favre for a late-round pick (more on that in a bit) but I wanted to secure a quality QB2 just in case I didn't get him. Campbell fits the bill. I think Ginn is a decent value pick in this round.

ROUND THIRTEEN
145,Dallas ,DEF,DAL
146,Smith,Steve,WR,NYG
147,Jordan,LaMont,RB,NE
148,NY Giants, DEF, NYG
149,Gaffney,Jabar,WR,NE
150,Jacksonville Jag, DEF,JAC
151,Leinart,Matt,QB,ARI
152,New England Pats, DEF,NE
153,Pittman,Michael,RB,DEN
154,Watson,Ben,TE,NE
155,Chicago Bears, DEF,CHI
156,Dunn,Warrick,RB,TB

Analysis: LaMont Jordan has decent talent, can be effective as a third-down RB and carry the load as a starter if need be. He's also on a great team which clearly doesn't have a ton of belief in its current starter. In the 13th round, that's good value. Plenty of defenses are starting to come off the board so if you're determined to get one before the end of your draft (I'm not), you'll probably have to start looking for one here.

ROUND FOURTEEN
157,Scheffler,Tony,TE,DEN
158,Smith,L.J,TE,PHI
159,Pittsburgh,DEF,PIT
160,Smith,Alex,QB,SF
161,Battle,Arnaz,WR,SF
162,Folk,Nick,K,DAL
163,Perry,Chris,RB,CIN
164,Stokley,Brandon,WR,DEN
165,Gostkowski,Stephen,K,NE
166,Favre,Brett,QB,GB
167,Garcia,Jeff,QB,TB
168,Jackson,Fred,RB,BUF

Analysis: I was hoping Favre would still be on the board and he was. As it turned out Brandon Funston from Yahoo who had the pick after mine said he was going to take him if I didn't. Given the garbage on the board at the other positions, I figured Favre was worth the gamble.

ROUND FIFTEEN
169,Warner,Kurt,QB,ARI
170,Olsen,Greg,TE,CHI
171,GB Packers, DEF,GB
172,Ward,Derrick,RB,NYG
173,Branch,Deion,WR,SEA
174,Foster,DeShaun,RB,SF
175,Bennett,Drew,WR,STL
176,Crosby,Mason,K,GB
177,Sea Seahawks, DEF,SEA
178,Kaeding,Nate,K,SD
179,Graham,Shayne,K,CIN
180,Tampa Bay Bucs, DEF,TB

Analysis: I needed to start looking at defenses and kickers. The Packers have a quality defense so they were the pick. I'll continue to say that I think people are making a mistake drafting Deion Branch - even this late. I like the Foster pick a lot in Round 15.

ROUND SIXTEEN
181,Brown,Kris,K,HOU
182,Avery,Donnie,WR,STL
183,Muhammad,Muhsin,WR,CAR
184,Brown,Josh,K,STL
185,Walter,Kevin,WR,HOU
186,Buffalo Bills, DEF,BUF
187,Bironas,Rob,K,TEN
188,Vinatieri,Adam,K,IND
189,Russell,JaMarcus,QB,OAK
190,Scobee,Josh,K,JAC
191,Dawson,Phil,K,CLE
192,Nugent,Mike,K,NYJ

FINAL ROSTER
QB-Roethlisberger
QB-Campbell
QB-Favre

RB-Jackson
RB-Graham
RB-Felix Jones
RB-Morris
RB-Jordan

WR-Chad Johnson
WR-Boldin
WR-Driver
WR-Mason
WR-Bruce

TE-Heap
K-Scobee
D-Green Bay

I'm pretty happy with this team. I like my RB depth quite a bit and I think I am very strong at WR. To have five No. 1 WRs for their respective teams (or 1B in Boldin's case) is something I'm happy about in a PPR format.

And yes I took three QBs in a non-Draft Champions format. I was hoping to snare Favre in the 14th round and that's where I got him. I could've held off and not taken Campbell but he was the last decent QB I liked on the board so I wanted to make sure I had a solid backup in case somebody grabbed Favre before me. But in the 16th round I figured taking Favre was worth the gamble. If he stays retired, I doubt anybody taken after him is someone I will kick myself for not drafting. So I'll cut him and pick somebody up for depth purposes. If he returns, he'll likely be the starter somewhere, giving him strong value and giving my team quality QB depth which could be used in a trade.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC or call 800-726-9966 ext. 13284 to get signed up today to reserve a spot before the events sell out.

  
 

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