By Tom Kessenich

I’ve talked before about the need to find good value picks on Draft Day. While there is still a little time left before we host the National Fantasy Football Championship and the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship, there are some values starting to emerge for those owners looking to get into our events before they sell out.

One of the biggest in my opinion resides in the Seattle backfield.

While plenty of attention has focused on Julius Jones, the Seattle RB I like this year is Maurice Morris. And currently, he’s the better value play in NFFC drafts.

According to data on MockDraftCentral.com, Jones’ current NFFC Average Draft Position is 45, meaning he’s typically being drafted early in the fourth round. Morris, meanwhile, has an ADP of 138, meaning he’s going in the 10th round in most NFFC drafts.

Head coach Mike Holmgren has said Jones and Morris could share time this season. After watching Jones flop last season on a standout Dallas team, it’s difficult to feel very confident he’ll shine in Seattle. Morris, on the other hand, knows the offense and performed well in place of the injured Shaun Alexander last season. He’s not a special talent by any means but he’s good enough to earn his share of touches for the Seahawks, and if Jones falters again he’s talented enough to earn the bulk of the touches.

When you consider you can get Morris 6-7 rounds later in drafts that makes him a strong value pick. I’ve been targeting him in my Expert League drafts for the past few months and snared him in a few. If Morris’ ADP remains low, he could become a solid RB3 you won’t have to use a high draft pick to acquire.

That’s value.

Speaking of value, we contacted several of our top NFFC players and asked them to join us in our first NFFC Expert League rankings site. In addition to my own rankings, we have rankings from 11 of our top players, including our 2004 NFFC champion (Mark Srebro) and the 2007 champ (Ryan Welch).

The rankings will be updated daily with real-time changes made when necessary. These are rankings for fantasy players by fantasy players and we believe it’s going to be a valuable, and fascinating, tool that many owners will want to utilize on Draft Day. To check out the rankings go to:

http://nffc.nbcsports.com/football/rankings.asp

Looking at the rankings, a few things jumped out at me:

Ryan Grant's value is all over the place. As high as 9th overall; as low as 47th.

Most of us are sold on Frank Gore but one of our NFFC experts has him as low as 17th overall.

Randy Moss is viewed as a first-round pick by all of the experts. Three of us have four WRs ranked among the first 14 picks. Every other team but one has at least three WRs ranked as first-round worthy.

Jason Witten has clearly separated himself as the No. 1-ranked TE by our experts. Will that change if Gates starts practicing fully? We'll have to wait and see.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC or call 800-726-9966 ext. 13284 to get signed up today to reserve a spot before the events sell out.

Posted by Tom Kessenich at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

By Tom Kessenich

I haven’t written about the Brett Favre Saga because it’s been my hope that, like Jessica Simpson’s country music career, this would just fade away and we could all move on and forget this ugliness ever happened. But with the news today that Favre is going to report to training camp with the Packers it’s become clear the future Hall of Famer will play this season.

Just don’t expect him to play for Green Bay.

I believe this latest development is a procedural step toward making a Favre trade a reality. And it could occur very soon. The Packers have been talking to teams around the league gauging their interest and at least one (Tampa Bay) has reportedly been spending a lot of time in recent days pondering whether it should trade for Favre.

My take on this simple: I hope Green Bay GM Ted Thompson knows what he’s doing here because his job could depend on it.

I don’t believe Favre has handled this well. He came across badly in his interview last week with Greta Van Susteren with many of his comments coming across like a spoiled child who didn’t get his way and isn’t happy with mom and dad because of it. Public sentiment in Packerland is growing more and more strongly on the team’s side because of it so if Thompson does trade Favre (or perhaps I should say when he trades Favre) it’s unlikely there will be a heavy outpouring of emotion against the decision.

But like I said, I hope Thompson knows what he’s doing. It’s one thing to trade Favre and say the job belongs to Aaron Rodgers. It’s another to trade one of the game’s top quarterbacks (which Favre still is) to a playoff team (which Tampa Bay is, for example) and arguably give that playoff team the primary thing it needs most to make a run at the Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, back in Green Bay, the Packers’ success would ride on the shoulders of an unproven starter with durability issues and a pair of rookies backing him up.

So explain to me again why trading Favre is such a slam-dunk move for the Packers?

I don’t think anyone in the galaxy outside of the Rodgers family honestly believes Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback right now than Brett Favre. And when you consider how difficult it is to get to the Super Bowl, that is ultimately the most important element of this equation.

Who gives the Packers their best chance to win this season as the starting quarterback? There isn’t a meaningful measurable available which would support Rodgers as the answer to that question. But that very well may be the decision Thompson makes. If he does, he had better hope Rodgers is the next Steve Young and Favre looks like Johnny Unitas with the Chargers.

The alternative isn’t a pretty one for Thompson – or Packer fans – to ponder.

From a fantasy perspective, Favre's pending return means the woefully weak quarterback position now has another legitimate starting option added to the mix. He ranked ninth in NFFC scoring last year, averaging 22.4 points per game, so in a year with so many question marks at the position Favre would provide a safe, productive answer.

Even if the unforeseen happens and he remains with Green Bay as a backup, it would likely be a matter of time before he supplanted Rodgers as the starter. So Favre's return from (brief) retirement would be good news for a fantasy season that appeared to be largely devoid of quality starting QB options.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC or call 800-726-9966 ext. 13284 to get signed up today to reserve a spot before the events sell out.

Posted by Tom Kessenich at 11:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

By Tom Kessenich

The Dark Knight is taking no prisoners. Mulder and Scully will soon be reunited. Brett Favre is still retired (for now). August is just around the corner and that light you see in the distance is growing stronger. It’s the glow of another NFL season about to commence.

Even though training camps have yet to open for all of the teams, there are still a few items of interest fantasy owners need to be aware of as they begin making their Draft Day preparations. Here is a look at some of them:

Saint Shockey
The worst-kept secret in the NFL finally became official when the Giants traded TE Jeremy Shockey to the Saints on Monday for a pair of draft picks. It’s been obvious since the end of last season that Shockey and the Giants had reached the point of no return and with the Saints in desperate need for an impact TE, this deal had been rumored for months.

So how does it impact fantasy owners? It certainly won’t hurt Shockey or Drew Brees. Shockey’s production in 2007 left plenty to be desired as he ranked ninth in scoring among TEs in the National Fantasy Football Championship, averaging 9.8 points per game. He’s yet to prove he can make a sustained impact over the course of a full season but moving to the Saints, who plan to utilize him heavily in the passing game, will be a plus. It also won’t hurt that Brees loves throwing to his TE (witness Eric Johnson’s 48 receptions last season). Shockey gives the Saints a third quality receiving option in the passing game along with Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, and his presence could also help Bush in the running game if LBs start paying more attention to Shockey and stop crowding the line looking to derail Bush.

Meanwhile, in New York Kevin Boss takes over as Shockey’s replacement. He looked good late last season filling in when Shockey was hurt and he has the talent to ultimately become a Top 10 fantasy TE. He averaged 5.4 points per game in NFFC scoring last season but should become a quality backup TE in NFFC leagues in 2008. I've bumped him up to 16th on my TE rankings, just behind Ben Watson and right ahead of Greg Olsen.

Gimpy Gates
While Shockey’s status is looking better, another top TE – Antonio Gates – isn’t looking quite so good at the present time. Gates slipped to second in NFFC scoring among TEs last season, averaging 15.3 points per game, and his status for the start of this season remains murky as he continues his recovery from offseason toe surgery.

San Diego head coach Norv Turner said Monday he’s “optimistic” Gates will be ready for the start of the season. Optimistic? That’s it? Shouldn’t he at least be “confident?” The fact there is any question at all that Gates might not be ready for Week 1 is a red flag. There’s definitely plenty of time for Gates to get well but if he doesn’t enter camp at full strength, it could lead to owners needing to lower their projections for him this season.

Jason Witten has already inched past Gates as the first TE off the board in many drafts this year although Gates remains No. 1 among TEs in NFFC drafts based on Average Draft Position information on MockDraftCentral.com. But Gates is no longer the sure-fire No. 1 TE in fantasy this year and this news isn’t making his standing any more secure. I currently have Gates ranked second among TEs although I haven’t altered my projections based on this latest development.

But I am watching Gates. Closely.

Porter’s Plummet
Jerry Porter has been one of the hot sleeper picks among WRs in preseason drafts thus far. I’ve never been totally on board with that given how many times Porter has failed to deliver for fantasy owners in the past. Last season, for example, he ranked 52nd in NFFC scoring among WRs at 9.4 points per game.

His sleeper status took a major hit last week, however, when it was announced he had undergone surgery on a torn hamstring that could sideline him for the start of the season. Porter has never been the toughest WR around and when you consider hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger and even when healthy he’ll be in a run-heavy offense, I don't see Porter having a big season. I’ve dropped him on my rankings and no longer consider him even a modest sleeper option.

And finally, although we still have over a month to go before our NFFC and NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship events, it’s never too late to sign up and reserve a spot. We have openings available for both the 14-team NFFC event and the 12-team NBC Sports event, both of which will be held on Saturday, Aug. 30 in Las Vegas, New York, Chicago and Orlando.

If you’re interested in signing up, you can do so by registering online today. Just go to http://nfc.nbcsports.com and you’ll find all the info you need to get you set up for one or both of our events. In addition to the right to win $100,000 as the overall champ in our events, we also have a $1 million bonus in place for the owner who wins both. That’s right, if you finish first overall in both the NFFC and NBC Sports events, you’ll win a cool $1 million.

That’s a signing bonus worth reporting for, isn’t it? So sign up today and reserve a spot in the industry’s first multi-city, high-stakes event.

We also have plenty of openings available for our online leagues. With entry fees starting as low as $125 and prizes ranging from Top 3 league payouts to free entries in either the 2009 NFFC or NBC Sports events there is a league for everyone. Go to http://nfc.nbcsports.com to find out more about our online leagues.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.

Posted by Tom Kessenich at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

By Tom Kessenich

It’s only the start of July but I’ve already got football fever. I can’t lie. I can hear it calling out to me even though we’re still in the middle of the baseball season. I’m like Zach Braff in “The Last Kiss.” I have Jacinda Barrett’s baseball safely at home all warm and cozy but Rachel Bilson’s exciting and titillating football keeps calling out for me.

So what do I do? I've caved.

C'mon, have you seen Rachel Bilson?

Anyway, I'm currently finishing up our second Fantasy Sports Magazine football issue of the year. That means we’ve had a plethora of drafts to feature in the issue. One of them was our second KP Experts League draft. This is a 12-team draft featuring PPR scoring and six points for touchdown passes. We invited 11 industry leaders and the 2007 National Fantasy Football Championship champion, Ryan Welch, to take part.

Here’s a look at the first six rounds to whet your football appetites. My picks are in bold:

ROUND 1
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Steven Jackson
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Joseph Addai
6. Tom Brady
7. Frank Gore
8. Peyton Manning
9. Clinton Portis
10. Marion Barber
11. Larry Johnson
12. Randy Moss

ANALYSIS: No surprises in the first seven picks, but Manning at 8 was a stunner. Portis is inching his way into first-round territory and Larry Johnson is looking like a prime value pick at the end of the first round. In a PPR league, taking Westbrook at two was a no-brainer, although I was mildly tempted by Steven Jackson.

ROUND 2
13. Marshawn Lynch
14. Ryan Grant
15. Reggie Wayne
16. Willis McGahee
17. Terrell Owens
18. Larry Fitzgerald
19. Jamal Lewis
20. Braylon Edwards
21. Andre Johnson
22. Marques Colston
23. Reggie Bush
24. Laurence Maroney

ANALYSIS: I was thrilled to get Bush here in a PPR league. As I wrote in a recent RotoWorld column, I think Bush as a RB2 in a PPR league is outstanding value. He’s money in the bank for at least 75-80 receptions with the possibility for much more. I love the values on Lynch and Grant in the second round and WRs were hot targets here as six were taken in this round.

ROUND 3
25. Plaxico Burress
26. Chad Johnson
27. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
28. Steve Smith
29. Maurice Jones-Drew
30. Wes Welker
31. Torry Holt
32. Darren McFadden
33. Willie Parker
34. Earnest Graham
35. Brandon Marshall
36. Tony Romo

ANALYSIS: Having secured two strong RBs, I was looking for my WR1 in this round and was happy to see Chad Johnson still on the board. With no threat of a holdout in sight, Johnson should remain a strong WR1 option. I like the values on Jones-Drew, McFadden and Graham in this round. Marshall’s value was still solid despite the threat of a possible suspension.

ROUND 4
37. Jason Witten
38. Kellen Winslow
39. Drew Brees
40. Anquan Boldin
41. Roy Williams
42. Brandon Jacobs
43. Antonio Gates
44. Carson Palmer
45. Ronnie Brown
46. Tony Gonzalez
47. Dwayne Bowe
48. Santonio Holmes

ANALYSIS: I’m a big Bowe fan. If the Chiefs had even a mediocre QB I think he’d be a Top 10 WR. I’ll take him as my WR2 since I believe he’ll be targeted plenty this season. The Top 5 QBs on my rankings are all gone by Round 4 with Palmer taken 44th. Winslow went a little sooner than I expected. Boldin with the 40th pick is nice value in a PPR league.

ROUND 5
49. Derek Anderson
50. Ben Roethlisberger
51. Julius Jones
52. Jonathan Stewart
53. Hines Ward
54. Felix Jones
55. Michael Turner
56. Thomas Jones
57. Edgerrin James
58. Greg Jennings
59. Kevin Smith
60. Matt Forte

ANALYSIS: I was debating between Anderson and Roethlisberger here but my decision was made for me when Anderson went 49th. I think Big Ben is primed for a banner season so I’ll take him happily in the fifth round. I like Felix Jones a lot but 54th overall is way too soon in my opinion - especially when guys like Michael Turner, Thomas Jones and Edge were still on the board. Edge, by the way, continues to be a terrific value pick.

ROUND 6
61. Roddy White
62. Calvin Johnson
63. Selvin Young
64. Jerricho Cotchery
65. Rudi Johnson
66. Matt Hasselbeck
67. LenDale White
68. Chris Cooley
69. Marvin Harrison
70. Fred Taylor
71. Donald Driver
72. Rashard Mendenhall

ANALYSIS: I was hoping Cotchery would fall but I have no complaints with Driver as my WR3. His value is down with Favre gone but I think he'll score more than 2 TDs this year and he makes for a quality WR3 in a PPR league. LenDale White has been a pretty nice value pick. Nobody seems to believe in him despite his solid production last season. Marvin Harrison continues to go way too high in my opinion.

This is just a taste of the draft. The full results will be in our second issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine, which will be on newsstands at the end of the month featuring Tom Brady on the cover. You can also see more discussion on this draft on the NFFC Message Boards. I wanted to provide a look at how the early rounds were shaping up as we head into July. Much will change between now and the start of the season but this will help you start getting a feel for what to expect on Draft Day.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.

Posted by Tom Kessenich at 09:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)