Selvin Young: The Next Great Denver RB?
By Tom Kessenich
The Denver backfield has long fascinated fantasy football owners. And given the success that backfield has produced over the years, it's easy to see why. Whether it's been Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Mike Bell or even Travis Henry, the Broncos' backfield has produced a number of viable fantasy RBs and a few elite ones.
So when the Broncos announce a new starter as has become their custom in recent years, the ears of fantasy owners perk up in anticipation. This year's newest sensation?
Selvin Young.
Well, Young isn't exactly new to the fantasy scene. He got his feet wet with a few weeks of fantasy production last season as he rushed for 729 yards on 140 carries (5.2 YPC) with one touchdown. Unfortunately for Young owners, he failed miserably to take hold of the starting job when Travis Henry got hurt. Instead, Young got hurt himself and lost carries to Andre Hall and later Henry in the final weeks of the season.
To me, that's the rub with Selvin Young. I'm not sure he's built for the rigors of being a starting RB in the NFL. He reminds me of Tatum Bell - a RB who's good for 10-15 carries a game but will not make it through an entire season if he's given 20 or more each week.
Consider some of these numbers for Young last season:
His best work came on his first five carries of the game when he averaged 6.5 YPC. His YPC average then dipped to 4.2 for carries 6-10 and 4.1 for carries 11-15. It did rise to 4.5 on carries 16-20 but the decline in production after his fifth carry of each game is difficult to ignore.
Also, based on last season's stats it's debatable whether Young is a strong finisher. He averaged 6.8 YPC in the first quarter of games and 6.0 in the second. However, his YPC fell off dramatically in the second half as he averaged just 3.5 YPC in the third quarter and only 3.8 YPC in the fourth. Those are not positive numbers given the importance of utilizing the running game in the second half to close out games.
So even though Young has been announced as the new starter for Denver when training camp begins next month, I'm not sure fantasy owners should rush out to draft him as anything more than a RB3. I got him as my RB4 in the Fantasy Index Experts League draft recently and was happy with him there. But if he was someone I had to depend on as a weekly starter, I think he's bound to disappoint.
The good news is you can get him cheap right now. His ADP on MockDraftCentral.com is currently 112 in NFFC drafts and the highest he's gone so far is 98th. So in an NFFC draft, you can currently grab him with a pick between the seventh and ninth rounds. His stock is surely going to rise now that he's been given the starting job heading into camp but there should be enough red flags surrounding his potential to prevent him from making a major rise up the RB rankings anytime soon.
If he does win the starting job, I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a season similar to the one Tatum Bell had in 2006 - opening with some strong games for a few weeks, only to suffer an injury and fall by the fantasy wayside as the rigors of the starting job proved too much for him to handle.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Coordinator of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.





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