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A Festive June

By Tom Kessenich

June is the slowest month of the football season. Sure, there is a minicamp here and there but rarely does much happen of significance. The thrill of the draft has worn off and it still feels a little too early to get pumped up about the start of training camp.

But this June has provided a few more newsworthy developments than most and at least two of them have helped crystallize fantasy drafts for this year with regard to two key players. Let’s take a look:

Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is expected to plead guilty to a traffic violation Friday for the hit-and-run accident involving his vehicle on May 31. This is great news for the Bills (and Lynch owners) since the plea is not a criminal charge, meaning Lynch will likely avoid a suspension.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, fantasy owners did not appear overly concerned about the incident given Lynch’s Average Draft Position. According to MockDraftCentral.com, Lynch’s ADP in National Fantasy Football Championship drafts has been 16 so far this year. That places him just outside the first round of NFFC drafts and he typically has been drafted among the Top 12 RBs.

We hosted an NFFC Draft Champions League draft last night and Lynch was the 24th player taken overall and the 14th RB selected. I consider that outstanding value for a player I believe will be a Top 10 RB this season.

With the threat of a suspension likely gone, I would expect Lynch’s ADP to rise a bit between now and the start of the season. However, if he remains a second-round pick, he will continue to represent strong value in NFFC drafts.

Chad Johnson
Remember all the bluster Johnson had when he insisted he wouldn’t play for the Bengals this season? Remember how he sniped at QB Carson Palmer and even his close friend, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, suggested the Bengals would be better off trading him?

Quicker than a Lindsay Lohan stint in rehab, Johnson reversed field. He now plans on reporting to training camp, playing for the Bengals this season and being best buds with Palmer. So much for the bluster.

The good news is those owners who have had drafts already and gambled on Johnson as a WR1 have seen their gamble pay off. And those who may have been hesitant to pursue Johnson in subsequent drafts now have the green light to take him without fear of a holdout.

Even though his production was a bit of a disappointment last season, Johnson still ranked eighth in the NFFC in WR scoring, averaging 18 points per game. He has topped 85 receptions in each of the past six seasons and he’s been a Top 10 WR in standard scoring leagues in each of those years. So even though his endless babbling and self promotion have grown tiresome, he is a proven No. 1 WR who brings strong production to any fantasy roster.

There’s always a chance Johnson’s grandstanding results in diminished production but I believe the threat of anything significant happening is minor. I’ve upgraded him to a Top 10 WR in our rankings and wouldn’t hesitate to grab him as my WR1 in any draft this year.

Javon Walker
While the news is good for Lynch and Johnson, the offseason just keeps getting worse and worse for Walker. First, he reported to minicamps out of shape and then he was robbed and assaulted during a recent visit to Las Vegas.

Fortunately for Walker, he did not apparently suffer any major injuries and the Raiders believe he’ll be ready for the start of training camp. But these incidents simply provide more ammunition when it comes to my disinterest in him this season.

He’s had two major knee injuries in the past three seasons. He’s only had two standout seasons in his entire career. And he’s going to a suspect offense with a first-time QB in JaMarcus Russell. All of that was reason enough to avoid Walker this year in my opinion. Even if he hadn’t shown up for minicamp work in questionable condition and even if he didn’t have a troubled trip to Vegas, I’d still plan on avoiding Walker in drafts this year if at all possible.

But when you combine his turbulent offseason with all of the other major red flags surrounding this guy, it simply gives me little reason to believe he’ll be a viable fantasy starter this year. If you’re targeting him, you’re a braver soul than I.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.

Comments

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What about Brandon Marshall? This was supposed to be a breakout year for Baby T.O. and now this offseason he has suffered lacerations to his arm and two arrests(a DUI and a battery charge).

What do we do about Brandon? Won't this also negatively impact Jay Cutler's draft status?

Marshall is another example and in hindsight I should have listed him. I think we need to see what consequences there are of his March arrest but he's certainly put himself in a position to fall down the WR rankings.

And yes, if Marshall misses time due to a suspension I think that kills Cutler. Marshall and to a lesser degree Scheffler are all he really has in the passing game. He absolutely can't afford to lose Cutler.

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