By Tom Kessenich

June is the slowest month of the football season. Sure, there is a minicamp here and there but rarely does much happen of significance. The thrill of the draft has worn off and it still feels a little too early to get pumped up about the start of training camp.

But this June has provided a few more newsworthy developments than most and at least two of them have helped crystallize fantasy drafts for this year with regard to two key players. Let’s take a look:

Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is expected to plead guilty to a traffic violation Friday for the hit-and-run accident involving his vehicle on May 31. This is great news for the Bills (and Lynch owners) since the plea is not a criminal charge, meaning Lynch will likely avoid a suspension.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, fantasy owners did not appear overly concerned about the incident given Lynch’s Average Draft Position. According to MockDraftCentral.com, Lynch’s ADP in National Fantasy Football Championship drafts has been 16 so far this year. That places him just outside the first round of NFFC drafts and he typically has been drafted among the Top 12 RBs.

We hosted an NFFC Draft Champions League draft last night and Lynch was the 24th player taken overall and the 14th RB selected. I consider that outstanding value for a player I believe will be a Top 10 RB this season.

With the threat of a suspension likely gone, I would expect Lynch’s ADP to rise a bit between now and the start of the season. However, if he remains a second-round pick, he will continue to represent strong value in NFFC drafts.

Chad Johnson
Remember all the bluster Johnson had when he insisted he wouldn’t play for the Bengals this season? Remember how he sniped at QB Carson Palmer and even his close friend, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, suggested the Bengals would be better off trading him?

Quicker than a Lindsay Lohan stint in rehab, Johnson reversed field. He now plans on reporting to training camp, playing for the Bengals this season and being best buds with Palmer. So much for the bluster.

The good news is those owners who have had drafts already and gambled on Johnson as a WR1 have seen their gamble pay off. And those who may have been hesitant to pursue Johnson in subsequent drafts now have the green light to take him without fear of a holdout.

Even though his production was a bit of a disappointment last season, Johnson still ranked eighth in the NFFC in WR scoring, averaging 18 points per game. He has topped 85 receptions in each of the past six seasons and he’s been a Top 10 WR in standard scoring leagues in each of those years. So even though his endless babbling and self promotion have grown tiresome, he is a proven No. 1 WR who brings strong production to any fantasy roster.

There’s always a chance Johnson’s grandstanding results in diminished production but I believe the threat of anything significant happening is minor. I’ve upgraded him to a Top 10 WR in our rankings and wouldn’t hesitate to grab him as my WR1 in any draft this year.

Javon Walker
While the news is good for Lynch and Johnson, the offseason just keeps getting worse and worse for Walker. First, he reported to minicamps out of shape and then he was robbed and assaulted during a recent visit to Las Vegas.

Fortunately for Walker, he did not apparently suffer any major injuries and the Raiders believe he’ll be ready for the start of training camp. But these incidents simply provide more ammunition when it comes to my disinterest in him this season.

He’s had two major knee injuries in the past three seasons. He’s only had two standout seasons in his entire career. And he’s going to a suspect offense with a first-time QB in JaMarcus Russell. All of that was reason enough to avoid Walker this year in my opinion. Even if he hadn’t shown up for minicamp work in questionable condition and even if he didn’t have a troubled trip to Vegas, I’d still plan on avoiding Walker in drafts this year if at all possible.

But when you combine his turbulent offseason with all of the other major red flags surrounding this guy, it simply gives me little reason to believe he’ll be a viable fantasy starter this year. If you’re targeting him, you’re a braver soul than I.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.

Posted by Tom Kessenich at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

By Tom Kessenich

Were it not for Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch may have been the most talked about rookie in the NFL last season. He was talented, productive and a valuable fantasy running back.

He’s been a hot topic during the offseason thus far, but unlike last year, the conversations haven’t been positive.

Buffalo police believe Lynch was driving when his car was recently involved in a hit-and-run accident. The victim was not seriously harmed, but Lynch’s legal woes may not be resolved anytime soon. And once they are, he still faces a possible suspension from commissioner Roger Goodell, who hasn’t shown a propensity to turn a blind eye to suspect off-the-field during his tenure thus far.

Fantasy owners are paying close attention to this situation given how Lynch has become a Top 10 running back in many preseason rankings. He has consistently been slotted in that range for our Fantasy Sports Magazine rankings since I first began putting them together back in late March. In fact, I have considered Lynch to be one of the biggest upside picks of any top running back this year.

But now? Well, my belief in Lynch hasn’t changed. As long as he’s on the field, I am confident he will excel. The question is will he be available for all 16 Bills’ games this season?

His ADP hasn’t been effected by the legal mess he’s in. According to Mock Draft Central.com, Lynch’s current ADP is 14.15. That is only slightly down from his ADP of last week (13.58). At this point, it appears fantasy owners aren’t about to panic with Lynch just yet.

I agree with that assessment. It's certainly possible a huge suspension could be headed Lynch's way if he's found guilty, I'm guessing it may be of the one or two game variety. Even if that occurs, I believe his talent and potential still make him a quality RB1 option – especially given how the Bills have talked about utilizing him more as an everydown back this season. And if you can grab him in the second round as your RB2 or as your RB1 after taking a stud WR in the first, all the better.

So while the news surrounding Lynch hasn’t been positive, the good news is it’s only June and we still have plenty of time to see how this situation will unfold. If you’re drafting this early, my advice would be to keep Lynch ranked where you had him before this mess. At worst, you lose him for maybe a game or two and you’ll still have a strong talent to anchor your RBs this season.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.

Posted by Tom Kessenich at 09:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

By Tom Kessenich

The Denver backfield has long fascinated fantasy football owners. And given the success that backfield has produced over the years, it's easy to see why. Whether it's been Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Mike Bell or even Travis Henry, the Broncos' backfield has produced a number of viable fantasy RBs and a few elite ones.

So when the Broncos announce a new starter as has become their custom in recent years, the ears of fantasy owners perk up in anticipation. This year's newest sensation?

Selvin Young.

Well, Young isn't exactly new to the fantasy scene. He got his feet wet with a few weeks of fantasy production last season as he rushed for 729 yards on 140 carries (5.2 YPC) with one touchdown. Unfortunately for Young owners, he failed miserably to take hold of the starting job when Travis Henry got hurt. Instead, Young got hurt himself and lost carries to Andre Hall and later Henry in the final weeks of the season.

To me, that's the rub with Selvin Young. I'm not sure he's built for the rigors of being a starting RB in the NFL. He reminds me of Tatum Bell - a RB who's good for 10-15 carries a game but will not make it through an entire season if he's given 20 or more each week.

Consider some of these numbers for Young last season:

His best work came on his first five carries of the game when he averaged 6.5 YPC. His YPC average then dipped to 4.2 for carries 6-10 and 4.1 for carries 11-15. It did rise to 4.5 on carries 16-20 but the decline in production after his fifth carry of each game is difficult to ignore.

Also, based on last season's stats it's debatable whether Young is a strong finisher. He averaged 6.8 YPC in the first quarter of games and 6.0 in the second. However, his YPC fell off dramatically in the second half as he averaged just 3.5 YPC in the third quarter and only 3.8 YPC in the fourth. Those are not positive numbers given the importance of utilizing the running game in the second half to close out games.

So even though Young has been announced as the new starter for Denver when training camp begins next month, I'm not sure fantasy owners should rush out to draft him as anything more than a RB3. I got him as my RB4 in the Fantasy Index Experts League draft recently and was happy with him there. But if he was someone I had to depend on as a weekly starter, I think he's bound to disappoint.

The good news is you can get him cheap right now. His ADP on MockDraftCentral.com is currently 112 in NFFC drafts and the highest he's gone so far is 98th. So in an NFFC draft, you can currently grab him with a pick between the seventh and ninth rounds. His stock is surely going to rise now that he's been given the starting job heading into camp but there should be enough red flags surrounding his potential to prevent him from making a major rise up the RB rankings anytime soon.

If he does win the starting job, I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a season similar to the one Tatum Bell had in 2006 - opening with some strong games for a few weeks, only to suffer an injury and fall by the fantasy wayside as the rigors of the starting job proved too much for him to handle.

Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Coordinator of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.

Posted by Tom Kessenich at 09:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)