Playing The RB Value Game
By Tom Kessenich
As fantasy prognosticators we don't get them all right. Nobody does. And we tend to remember our misses more than our hits. If you're a perfectionist in this business - and I definitely am - the predictions you miss on tend to nag at you.
But when we hit big, it tends to resonate for quite awhile. Case in point: Clinton Portis in 2005.
Heading into that season, Portis’ value was low as he was coming off a five-TD season for the Redskins. I’ve long been a believer in Portis’ talent and viewing preseason drafts it was clear to me then that Portis was representing outstanding value. He was a RB1 who could be had in the second or even third rounds of drafts. So I pimped his value hard on our NFFC message boards, practically begging people to jump all over his value if they had the opportunity in their drafts that year.
Plenty of people scoffed saying Portis was washed up and wouldn’t recover. The result? He rushed for 1,516 yards and 11 TDs and ranked sixth among RBs in standard scoring leagues.
So every year since many of our NFFC participants like to ask me who I think is this year’s Clinton Portis. And this year, there is one RB who has clearly cemented his status in my eyes for 2008.
Earnest Graham.
Graham was one of 2007’s best fantasy stories. A third-string RB to start the year, he finished as the No. 1 RB in Tampa Bay. In his nine starts, he rushed for 722 yards and scored seven touchdowns. Project those numbers out to a 16-game season and they come to 1,283 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Those look like Top 10 RB numbers, don’t they? They sure do to me. But Graham isn’t being viewed as a Top 10 RB in many of the preseason drafts I’ve seen so far. Not even close.
In our KP1 Expert League (12-team) draft he went 34th overall and was the 18th RB taken. In our NFFC Champions League (14-team) draft, he went 32nd overall and was the 18th RB taken. And in our KP Auction League (14 teams), he went for a meager $19.
These results don’t appear to be aberrations. According to Mock Draft Central.com, Graham’s current Average Draft Position is 35th and he’s the 21st RB being selected.
I’m telling you people – this is HUGE value for a RB who has no serious competition for carries and goal-line touches. Warrick Dunn is the backup and a quick look at his birth certificate shows that he just turned 90 in April, is coming off his worst rushing season since 2002 and has seen his YPC decline each of the past two years. Cadillac Williams’ situation is so cloudy due to another injury that many observers in Tampa Bay don’t think he’ll even play this season.
In a year in which so many teams are going to a two-back system, Graham represents one of the few undisputed featured backs on his team. He proved last season he can produce at a high level, score touchdowns, catch passes out of the backfield and put up standout fantasy numbers.
And right now, you can get all of that in the third round of most drafts. That’s sensational value. That’s a RB1 you don’t have to use a first-round pick to get, opening the door for many possibilities with your first two picks.
Just as I felt good about Portis in 2005, I feel real good about Graham this year. He will be this year’s Clinton Portis and his owners are going to be thrilled they grabbed the value when he presented himself to them this year.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Coordinator of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
