July 22, 2008
By Tom Kessenich
The Dark Knight is taking no prisoners. Mulder and Scully will soon be reunited. Brett Favre is still retired (for now). August is just around the corner and that light you see in the distance is growing stronger. It’s the glow of another NFL season about to commence.
Even though training camps have yet to open for all of the teams, there are still a few items of interest fantasy owners need to be aware of as they begin making their Draft Day preparations. Here is a look at some of them:
Saint Shockey
The worst-kept secret in the NFL finally became official when the Giants traded TE Jeremy Shockey to the Saints on Monday for a pair of draft picks. It’s been obvious since the end of last season that Shockey and the Giants had reached the point of no return and with the Saints in desperate need for an impact TE, this deal had been rumored for months.
So how does it impact fantasy owners? It certainly won’t hurt Shockey or Drew Brees. Shockey’s production in 2007 left plenty to be desired as he ranked ninth in scoring among TEs in the National Fantasy Football Championship, averaging 9.8 points per game. He’s yet to prove he can make a sustained impact over the course of a full season but moving to the Saints, who plan to utilize him heavily in the passing game, will be a plus. It also won’t hurt that Brees loves throwing to his TE (witness Eric Johnson’s 48 receptions last season). Shockey gives the Saints a third quality receiving option in the passing game along with Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, and his presence could also help Bush in the running game if LBs start paying more attention to Shockey and stop crowding the line looking to derail Bush.
Meanwhile, in New York Kevin Boss takes over as Shockey’s replacement. He looked good late last season filling in when Shockey was hurt and he has the talent to ultimately become a Top 10 fantasy TE. He averaged 5.4 points per game in NFFC scoring last season but should become a quality backup TE in NFFC leagues in 2008. I've bumped him up to 16th on my TE rankings, just behind Ben Watson and right ahead of Greg Olsen.
Gimpy Gates
While Shockey’s status is looking better, another top TE – Antonio Gates – isn’t looking quite so good at the present time. Gates slipped to second in NFFC scoring among TEs last season, averaging 15.3 points per game, and his status for the start of this season remains murky as he continues his recovery from offseason toe surgery.
San Diego head coach Norv Turner said Monday he’s “optimistic” Gates will be ready for the start of the season. Optimistic? That’s it? Shouldn’t he at least be “confident?” The fact there is any question at all that Gates might not be ready for Week 1 is a red flag. There’s definitely plenty of time for Gates to get well but if he doesn’t enter camp at full strength, it could lead to owners needing to lower their projections for him this season.
Jason Witten has already inched past Gates as the first TE off the board in many drafts this year although Gates remains No. 1 among TEs in NFFC drafts based on Average Draft Position information on MockDraftCentral.com. But Gates is no longer the sure-fire No. 1 TE in fantasy this year and this news isn’t making his standing any more secure. I currently have Gates ranked second among TEs although I haven’t altered my projections based on this latest development.
But I am watching Gates. Closely.
Porter’s Plummet
Jerry Porter has been one of the hot sleeper picks among WRs in preseason drafts thus far. I’ve never been totally on board with that given how many times Porter has failed to deliver for fantasy owners in the past. Last season, for example, he ranked 52nd in NFFC scoring among WRs at 9.4 points per game.
His sleeper status took a major hit last week, however, when it was announced he had undergone surgery on a torn hamstring that could sideline him for the start of the season. Porter has never been the toughest WR around and when you consider hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger and even when healthy he’ll be in a run-heavy offense, I don't see Porter having a big season. I’ve dropped him on my rankings and no longer consider him even a modest sleeper option.
And finally, although we still have over a month to go before our NFFC and NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship events, it’s never too late to sign up and reserve a spot. We have openings available for both the 14-team NFFC event and the 12-team NBC Sports event, both of which will be held on Saturday, Aug. 30 in Las Vegas, New York, Chicago and Orlando.
If you’re interested in signing up, you can do so by registering online today. Just go to http://nfc.nbcsports.com and you’ll find all the info you need to get you set up for one or both of our events. In addition to the right to win $100,000 as the overall champ in our events, we also have a $1 million bonus in place for the owner who wins both. That’s right, if you finish first overall in both the NFFC and NBC Sports events, you’ll win a cool $1 million.
That’s a signing bonus worth reporting for, isn’t it? So sign up today and reserve a spot in the industry’s first multi-city, high-stakes event.
We also have plenty of openings available for our online leagues. With entry fees starting as low as $125 and prizes ranging from Top 3 league payouts to free entries in either the 2009 NFFC or NBC Sports events there is a league for everyone. Go to http://nfc.nbcsports.com to find out more about our online leagues.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
July 02, 2008
By Tom Kessenich
It’s only the start of July but I’ve already got football fever. I can’t lie. I can hear it calling out to me even though we’re still in the middle of the baseball season. I’m like Zach Braff in “The Last Kiss.” I have Jacinda Barrett’s baseball safely at home all warm and cozy but Rachel Bilson’s exciting and titillating football keeps calling out for me.
So what do I do? I've caved.
C'mon, have you seen Rachel Bilson?
Anyway, I'm currently finishing up our second Fantasy Sports Magazine football issue of the year. That means we’ve had a plethora of drafts to feature in the issue. One of them was our second KP Experts League draft. This is a 12-team draft featuring PPR scoring and six points for touchdown passes. We invited 11 industry leaders and the 2007 National Fantasy Football Championship champion, Ryan Welch, to take part.
Here’s a look at the first six rounds to whet your football appetites. My picks are in bold:
ROUND 1
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Steven Jackson
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Joseph Addai
6. Tom Brady
7. Frank Gore
8. Peyton Manning
9. Clinton Portis
10. Marion Barber
11. Larry Johnson
12. Randy Moss
ANALYSIS: No surprises in the first seven picks, but Manning at 8 was a stunner. Portis is inching his way into first-round territory and Larry Johnson is looking like a prime value pick at the end of the first round. In a PPR league, taking Westbrook at two was a no-brainer, although I was mildly tempted by Steven Jackson.
ROUND 2
13. Marshawn Lynch
14. Ryan Grant
15. Reggie Wayne
16. Willis McGahee
17. Terrell Owens
18. Larry Fitzgerald
19. Jamal Lewis
20. Braylon Edwards
21. Andre Johnson
22. Marques Colston
23. Reggie Bush
24. Laurence Maroney
ANALYSIS: I was thrilled to get Bush here in a PPR league. As I wrote in a recent RotoWorld column, I think Bush as a RB2 in a PPR league is outstanding value. He’s money in the bank for at least 75-80 receptions with the possibility for much more. I love the values on Lynch and Grant in the second round and WRs were hot targets here as six were taken in this round.
ROUND 3
25. Plaxico Burress
26. Chad Johnson
27. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
28. Steve Smith
29. Maurice Jones-Drew
30. Wes Welker
31. Torry Holt
32. Darren McFadden
33. Willie Parker
34. Earnest Graham
35. Brandon Marshall
36. Tony Romo
ANALYSIS: Having secured two strong RBs, I was looking for my WR1 in this round and was happy to see Chad Johnson still on the board. With no threat of a holdout in sight, Johnson should remain a strong WR1 option. I like the values on Jones-Drew, McFadden and Graham in this round. Marshall’s value was still solid despite the threat of a possible suspension.
ROUND 4
37. Jason Witten
38. Kellen Winslow
39. Drew Brees
40. Anquan Boldin
41. Roy Williams
42. Brandon Jacobs
43. Antonio Gates
44. Carson Palmer
45. Ronnie Brown
46. Tony Gonzalez
47. Dwayne Bowe
48. Santonio Holmes
ANALYSIS: I’m a big Bowe fan. If the Chiefs had even a mediocre QB I think he’d be a Top 10 WR. I’ll take him as my WR2 since I believe he’ll be targeted plenty this season. The Top 5 QBs on my rankings are all gone by Round 4 with Palmer taken 44th. Winslow went a little sooner than I expected. Boldin with the 40th pick is nice value in a PPR league.
ROUND 5
49. Derek Anderson
50. Ben Roethlisberger
51. Julius Jones
52. Jonathan Stewart
53. Hines Ward
54. Felix Jones
55. Michael Turner
56. Thomas Jones
57. Edgerrin James
58. Greg Jennings
59. Kevin Smith
60. Matt Forte
ANALYSIS: I was debating between Anderson and Roethlisberger here but my decision was made for me when Anderson went 49th. I think Big Ben is primed for a banner season so I’ll take him happily in the fifth round. I like Felix Jones a lot but 54th overall is way too soon in my opinion - especially when guys like Michael Turner, Thomas Jones and Edge were still on the board. Edge, by the way, continues to be a terrific value pick.
ROUND 6
61. Roddy White
62. Calvin Johnson
63. Selvin Young
64. Jerricho Cotchery
65. Rudi Johnson
66. Matt Hasselbeck
67. LenDale White
68. Chris Cooley
69. Marvin Harrison
70. Fred Taylor
71. Donald Driver
72. Rashard Mendenhall
ANALYSIS: I was hoping Cotchery would fall but I have no complaints with Driver as my WR3. His value is down with Favre gone but I think he'll score more than 2 TDs this year and he makes for a quality WR3 in a PPR league. LenDale White has been a pretty nice value pick. Nobody seems to believe in him despite his solid production last season. Marvin Harrison continues to go way too high in my opinion.
This is just a taste of the draft. The full results will be in our second issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine, which will be on newsstands at the end of the month featuring Tom Brady on the cover. You can also see more discussion on this draft on the NFFC Message Boards. I wanted to provide a look at how the early rounds were shaping up as we head into July. Much will change between now and the start of the season but this will help you start getting a feel for what to expect on Draft Day.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
June 25, 2008
By Tom Kessenich
June is the slowest month of the football season. Sure, there is a minicamp here and there but rarely does much happen of significance. The thrill of the draft has worn off and it still feels a little too early to get pumped up about the start of training camp.
But this June has provided a few more newsworthy developments than most and at least two of them have helped crystallize fantasy drafts for this year with regard to two key players. Let’s take a look:
Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is expected to plead guilty to a traffic violation Friday for the hit-and-run accident involving his vehicle on May 31. This is great news for the Bills (and Lynch owners) since the plea is not a criminal charge, meaning Lynch will likely avoid a suspension.
As I wrote a few weeks ago, fantasy owners did not appear overly concerned about the incident given Lynch’s Average Draft Position. According to MockDraftCentral.com, Lynch’s ADP in National Fantasy Football Championship drafts has been 16 so far this year. That places him just outside the first round of NFFC drafts and he typically has been drafted among the Top 12 RBs.
We hosted an NFFC Draft Champions League draft last night and Lynch was the 24th player taken overall and the 14th RB selected. I consider that outstanding value for a player I believe will be a Top 10 RB this season.
With the threat of a suspension likely gone, I would expect Lynch’s ADP to rise a bit between now and the start of the season. However, if he remains a second-round pick, he will continue to represent strong value in NFFC drafts.
Chad Johnson
Remember all the bluster Johnson had when he insisted he wouldn’t play for the Bengals this season? Remember how he sniped at QB Carson Palmer and even his close friend, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, suggested the Bengals would be better off trading him?
Quicker than a Lindsay Lohan stint in rehab, Johnson reversed field. He now plans on reporting to training camp, playing for the Bengals this season and being best buds with Palmer. So much for the bluster.
The good news is those owners who have had drafts already and gambled on Johnson as a WR1 have seen their gamble pay off. And those who may have been hesitant to pursue Johnson in subsequent drafts now have the green light to take him without fear of a holdout.
Even though his production was a bit of a disappointment last season, Johnson still ranked eighth in the NFFC in WR scoring, averaging 18 points per game. He has topped 85 receptions in each of the past six seasons and he’s been a Top 10 WR in standard scoring leagues in each of those years. So even though his endless babbling and self promotion have grown tiresome, he is a proven No. 1 WR who brings strong production to any fantasy roster.
There’s always a chance Johnson’s grandstanding results in diminished production but I believe the threat of anything significant happening is minor. I’ve upgraded him to a Top 10 WR in our rankings and wouldn’t hesitate to grab him as my WR1 in any draft this year.
Javon Walker
While the news is good for Lynch and Johnson, the offseason just keeps getting worse and worse for Walker. First, he reported to minicamps out of shape and then he was robbed and assaulted during a recent visit to Las Vegas.
Fortunately for Walker, he did not apparently suffer any major injuries and the Raiders believe he’ll be ready for the start of training camp. But these incidents simply provide more ammunition when it comes to my disinterest in him this season.
He’s had two major knee injuries in the past three seasons. He’s only had two standout seasons in his entire career. And he’s going to a suspect offense with a first-time QB in JaMarcus Russell. All of that was reason enough to avoid Walker this year in my opinion. Even if he hadn’t shown up for minicamp work in questionable condition and even if he didn’t have a troubled trip to Vegas, I’d still plan on avoiding Walker in drafts this year if at all possible.
But when you combine his turbulent offseason with all of the other major red flags surrounding this guy, it simply gives me little reason to believe he’ll be a viable fantasy starter this year. If you’re targeting him, you’re a braver soul than I.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
June 11, 2008
By Tom Kessenich
Were it not for Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch may have been the most talked about rookie in the NFL last season. He was talented, productive and a valuable fantasy running back.
He’s been a hot topic during the offseason thus far, but unlike last year, the conversations haven’t been positive.
Buffalo police believe Lynch was driving when his car was recently involved in a hit-and-run accident. The victim was not seriously harmed, but Lynch’s legal woes may not be resolved anytime soon. And once they are, he still faces a possible suspension from commissioner Roger Goodell, who hasn’t shown a propensity to turn a blind eye to suspect off-the-field during his tenure thus far.
Fantasy owners are paying close attention to this situation given how Lynch has become a Top 10 running back in many preseason rankings. He has consistently been slotted in that range for our Fantasy Sports Magazine rankings since I first began putting them together back in late March. In fact, I have considered Lynch to be one of the biggest upside picks of any top running back this year.
But now? Well, my belief in Lynch hasn’t changed. As long as he’s on the field, I am confident he will excel. The question is will he be available for all 16 Bills’ games this season?
His ADP hasn’t been effected by the legal mess he’s in. According to Mock Draft Central.com, Lynch’s current ADP is 14.15. That is only slightly down from his ADP of last week (13.58). At this point, it appears fantasy owners aren’t about to panic with Lynch just yet.
I agree with that assessment. It's certainly possible a huge suspension could be headed Lynch's way if he's found guilty, I'm guessing it may be of the one or two game variety. Even if that occurs, I believe his talent and potential still make him a quality RB1 option – especially given how the Bills have talked about utilizing him more as an everydown back this season. And if you can grab him in the second round as your RB2 or as your RB1 after taking a stud WR in the first, all the better.
So while the news surrounding Lynch hasn’t been positive, the good news is it’s only June and we still have plenty of time to see how this situation will unfold. If you’re drafting this early, my advice would be to keep Lynch ranked where you had him before this mess. At worst, you lose him for maybe a game or two and you’ll still have a strong talent to anchor your RBs this season.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Director of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
June 01, 2008
By Tom Kessenich
The Denver backfield has long fascinated fantasy football owners. And given the success that backfield has produced over the years, it's easy to see why. Whether it's been Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Mike Bell or even Travis Henry, the Broncos' backfield has produced a number of viable fantasy RBs and a few elite ones.
So when the Broncos announce a new starter as has become their custom in recent years, the ears of fantasy owners perk up in anticipation. This year's newest sensation?
Selvin Young.
Well, Young isn't exactly new to the fantasy scene. He got his feet wet with a few weeks of fantasy production last season as he rushed for 729 yards on 140 carries (5.2 YPC) with one touchdown. Unfortunately for Young owners, he failed miserably to take hold of the starting job when Travis Henry got hurt. Instead, Young got hurt himself and lost carries to Andre Hall and later Henry in the final weeks of the season.
To me, that's the rub with Selvin Young. I'm not sure he's built for the rigors of being a starting RB in the NFL. He reminds me of Tatum Bell - a RB who's good for 10-15 carries a game but will not make it through an entire season if he's given 20 or more each week.
Consider some of these numbers for Young last season:
His best work came on his first five carries of the game when he averaged 6.5 YPC. His YPC average then dipped to 4.2 for carries 6-10 and 4.1 for carries 11-15. It did rise to 4.5 on carries 16-20 but the decline in production after his fifth carry of each game is difficult to ignore.
Also, based on last season's stats it's debatable whether Young is a strong finisher. He averaged 6.8 YPC in the first quarter of games and 6.0 in the second. However, his YPC fell off dramatically in the second half as he averaged just 3.5 YPC in the third quarter and only 3.8 YPC in the fourth. Those are not positive numbers given the importance of utilizing the running game in the second half to close out games.
So even though Young has been announced as the new starter for Denver when training camp begins next month, I'm not sure fantasy owners should rush out to draft him as anything more than a RB3. I got him as my RB4 in the Fantasy Index Experts League draft recently and was happy with him there. But if he was someone I had to depend on as a weekly starter, I think he's bound to disappoint.
The good news is you can get him cheap right now. His ADP on MockDraftCentral.com is currently 112 in NFFC drafts and the highest he's gone so far is 98th. So in an NFFC draft, you can currently grab him with a pick between the seventh and ninth rounds. His stock is surely going to rise now that he's been given the starting job heading into camp but there should be enough red flags surrounding his potential to prevent him from making a major rise up the RB rankings anytime soon.
If he does win the starting job, I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a season similar to the one Tatum Bell had in 2006 - opening with some strong games for a few weeks, only to suffer an injury and fall by the fantasy wayside as the rigors of the starting job proved too much for him to handle.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Coordinator of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
May 15, 2008
By Tom Kessenich
As fantasy prognosticators we don't get them all right. Nobody does. And we tend to remember our misses more than our hits. If you're a perfectionist in this business - and I definitely am - the predictions you miss on tend to nag at you.
But when we hit big, it tends to resonate for quite awhile. Case in point: Clinton Portis in 2005.
Heading into that season, Portis’ value was low as he was coming off a five-TD season for the Redskins. I’ve long been a believer in Portis’ talent and viewing preseason drafts it was clear to me then that Portis was representing outstanding value. He was a RB1 who could be had in the second or even third rounds of drafts. So I pimped his value hard on our NFFC message boards, practically begging people to jump all over his value if they had the opportunity in their drafts that year.
Plenty of people scoffed saying Portis was washed up and wouldn’t recover. The result? He rushed for 1,516 yards and 11 TDs and ranked sixth among RBs in standard scoring leagues.
So every year since many of our NFFC participants like to ask me who I think is this year’s Clinton Portis. And this year, there is one RB who has clearly cemented his status in my eyes for 2008.
Earnest Graham.
Graham was one of 2007’s best fantasy stories. A third-string RB to start the year, he finished as the No. 1 RB in Tampa Bay. In his nine starts, he rushed for 722 yards and scored seven touchdowns. Project those numbers out to a 16-game season and they come to 1,283 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Those look like Top 10 RB numbers, don’t they? They sure do to me. But Graham isn’t being viewed as a Top 10 RB in many of the preseason drafts I’ve seen so far. Not even close.
In our KP1 Expert League (12-team) draft he went 34th overall and was the 18th RB taken. In our NFFC Champions League (14-team) draft, he went 32nd overall and was the 18th RB taken. And in our KP Auction League (14 teams), he went for a meager $19.
These results don’t appear to be aberrations. According to Mock Draft Central.com, Graham’s current Average Draft Position is 35th and he’s the 21st RB being selected.
I’m telling you people – this is HUGE value for a RB who has no serious competition for carries and goal-line touches. Warrick Dunn is the backup and a quick look at his birth certificate shows that he just turned 90 in April, is coming off his worst rushing season since 2002 and has seen his YPC decline each of the past two years. Cadillac Williams’ situation is so cloudy due to another injury that many observers in Tampa Bay don’t think he’ll even play this season.
In a year in which so many teams are going to a two-back system, Graham represents one of the few undisputed featured backs on his team. He proved last season he can produce at a high level, score touchdowns, catch passes out of the backfield and put up standout fantasy numbers.
And right now, you can get all of that in the third round of most drafts. That’s sensational value. That’s a RB1 you don’t have to use a first-round pick to get, opening the door for many possibilities with your first two picks.
Just as I felt good about Portis in 2005, I feel real good about Graham this year. He will be this year’s Clinton Portis and his owners are going to be thrilled they grabbed the value when he presented himself to them this year.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Coordinator of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
May 12, 2008
By Tom Kessenich
Maybe it's the fact that we just had the NFL draft. Or maybe it's the fact that, here in Wisconsin, we seem to have skipped spring and summer and gone right from winter to fall. Or maybe it's the fact that it's not even mid-May yet and I've already taken part in five fantasy football drafts and one auction.
Whatever the reason, it feels like football season to me.
Greg Ambrosius and myself have just wrapped up our first football issue of the year (a second one will be finished before camps begin in July) and while plenty of things will change between now and the start of the season a few things have emerged in the drafts and auction I've participated in. Among the most interesting developments so far have been:
Marvin Harrison: Despite missing nearly all of last season with a knee injury, despite rumors his rehab is not going well and despite his possible involvement in a recent shooting incident, Harrison's value hasn't dropped as much as I anticipated. In our KP1 Experts League (12-team) draft he went 50th overall and in our NFFC Champions League (14-team) draft he went 46th. That's too rich for my blood, especially since we don't even know if he'll be able to play this season.
Fantasy Nation Loves All Day: Even though Chester Taylor is still around and despite the fact he was a non-factor in the passing game and finished last season horribly, Adrian Peterson's status as an elite fantasy RB has been cemented in the eyes of fantasy owners. All Day has typically been the No. 2 pick in drafts after LaDainian Tomlinson and I don't think that's going to change barring injury. He has some concerns - namely Taylor's presence and the fact he didn't catch many passes last season - but it's clear fantasy owners believe his talent is so strong he could overcome all that and pose a real threat to LT's status as fantasy's premier RB. I agree with that assessment. If I'm picking second right now, I'll go with Peterson's upside though I would be very tempted by Steven Jackson's potential as well.
The first round: LT and Peterson aren't the only players who have cemented their status as first-round picks in the early going. While the order has differed, the following players have been first-round locks in 12-team and 14-team drafts: Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Ryan Grant. I would expect Marshawn Lynch to join this list before long. So if you want one of those players, you'll probably need a Top 11 pick to get them with Lynch being the most likely player to drop at the present time. For those wondering where Brady has been going coming off his record-setting season, he went fifth in the KP draft and 14th in the NFFC draft (which awards six points for TD passes). He also had a staggering $44 price tag in our recent KP Auction for our first issue. That is also a 14-team league which uses NFFC scoring.
Tom Kessenich is the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Events Coordinator of the National Fantasy Football Championship. Click here to find out more information about the NFFC.
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