Don't expect Selanne to average a point a game over the last 25 games, as other fantasy experts are predicting. Chances are he won't as players who come back after missing most of a season tend to hit a wall early on in their campaign. With the exception of Mario Lemeiux, who came back in December 2000 after a three-year plus retirement and managed to score 35 goals and 76 points in 43 games, most players tend to have a weak return. This season Scott Niedermayer returned to action after missing the first 44 games of the season after retiring following the Ducks Stanley Cup victory last season. Niedermayer got off to a great start with two goals and 11 points in his first 14 games before hitting the wall. In his last eight games before tonight (in which he notched a goal) Niedermayer was scoreless and compiled a minus eight rating.

Most players who return part way through a season tend to be injured and have a tough time coming back. The only reasonable time period to look back on players who missed a season were those who sat out the lockout year and did not play in Europe.

Sergei Fedorov sat out the lockout season and had his point total drop from 65 in 2003/04 to 44 in 2005/06. He has not come close to the 65 total since.

Keith Tkachuk went from 71 points to 36 points after the lockout. It is true that he was injured after the lockout season, but there was an abnormal amount of groin injuries that season from players who did not play the previous year in Europe.

Jarome Iginla is another prime example. In a season when scoring was up significantly because of the new rule changes brought in after the lockout, Iginla., who didn't play anywhere in 2005, went from 73 points and a share of the Rocket Richard Trophy with 41 goals to 67 points including 35 goals.

Chances are that Selanne will drop from the 1.15 points per game of last season and the 1.13 points per game of the season before. I wouldn't be surprised if Selanne fails to reach 18 points in the final 26 games. He may play well for a few weeks, but his lack of game conditioning will eventually catch up with him.