July 28, 2009
Evan Silva admitted this morning that my Chris Johnson crush is wearing off on him as he recently selected the high-ceiling back in two industry drafts. With LenDale White due to see fewer touches this season, Johnson is a savvy first-round selection.
We already know that the Titans want to expand Johnson's role. Coaches Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger spent part of the offseason plotting creative ways to get the ball in Johnson's hands in space. If Nate Washington and Justin Gage can carry over their impressive play from OTAs, defenses won't be able to keep an extra defender in the box.
That's all well and good, but how do we know LenDale's carries will decline?
Continue reading ""Keep the Lead" LenDale losing value" »
July 05, 2009
I like the Fourth of July because it marks the passage of time. Years blend together in my mind, but I usually remember where I was every Independence Day.
This will be one that I stayed in most of the day working on our second magazine before finding out Steve McNair was shot to death. I pitched in on PFT for a few posts with details and reaction to the news, trying to find the right words.
(A last-minute trip to Daisy May's BBQ and the fireworks were a late save of holiday cheer. Like the Hudson setup.)
I didn't know Steve McNair personally, but it's amazing how something like this just takes your breath away. Stops you in your tracks.
(I have successfully avoided almost all Michael Jackson coverage. I understand his cultural impact, but it just doesn't impact me much. When I questioned the coverage, my wife reminded me how I feel when a favorite author or athlete dies. Point taken.)
McNair was an easy athlete to love following. He was a gifted player and leader. He wore his effort on his sleeve. His teammates have done an appropriate job memorializing what kind of man he was on the field. Off the field, he was the type of person that garnered respect from those who knew him the best.
The staggering circumstances surrounding his death will be the focus for now. It's dramatic nature makes that understandable. People will have opinions on what happened, why it happened, and will judge the situation before it's fair, if it ever is.
I don't know or understand enough for all that. I do understand what I saw from McNair on the field, and in his interactions with the media.
I'll remember his early prime, from 1997-2000, when his legs did a lot of the work for him. And then his peak years, from 2001-2003, when he combined his toughness with great accuracy and efficiency throwing the ball.
I'll remember those Titans teams as proof that consistent excellent play and toughness do not guarantee a Super Bowl trophy.
McNair lost to Super Bowl champions four times this decade. He came up a yard short against the Rams, was stuffed by the Ravens, and nearly beat the Patriots in Foxborough in 2003. (The Drew Bennett drop game or the "Froze our ass off" game depending on where you watched.) His final playoff appearance was a loss to the Colts after an overachieving season in Baltimore.
McNair's fantasy value reflected his persona: dependable, rarely flashy. He finished as a top-nine quarterback five times out of six healthy finishes during his peak, but never ranked higher than fifth.
He was such a steady public figure that the sudden end to his life is that much more difficult to register.
Back to fantasy in a few the morning.
June 09, 2009
Gregg raised a good point about job security with his Shaun Hill post earlier today. Which other quarterbacks will have to win early in the season in order to keep their jobs?
No-Brainers:
Kyle Orton, Broncos – Far from a lock to be a long-term answer in Denver, Orton’s contract is up after the season and Josh McDaniels could go in another direction.
Chad Pennington, Dolphins – The Miami papers have been all over this one. Chad Henne is ready, Penny is a poor bet to stay healthy and his contract is up after the season.
Jason Campbell, Redkins – The Redskins refuse to commit to Campbell beyond ’09. Another stretch of games like the second half of last season will land him on the bench.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders – Russell will start Week 1 regardless of preseason performance, but Jeff Garcia is looming if the offense stumbles out of the gate.
Shaun Hill – When you look at his performance and won-loss record, Hill has earned a long look. Alex Smith, though, has better tools and is the apple of the GM’s eye.
Continue reading "Short leash signal callers" »
April 30, 2009
I can't help but follow up on Chris' post yesterday after doing some work on my running back outlooks. While the Saints reportedly were interested in trading up for Beanie Wells, their need for a big back was vastly overstated.
Pierre Thomas was the hardest player in the NFC to stop for no gain or a loss of yardage last year. That's a pretty important short-yardage skill. He also led the NFC in % of touchdowns on runs inside the ten-yard line and first downs/carry. Go through almost any short-yardage metric and Thomas did very well. They don't need a bruiser.
On the flip side is one of our favorite players: Chris Johnson.
Continue reading "Chris Johnson, All Day thrive despite Stuffs" »
April 23, 2009
The Titans don't have many needs, but they could certainly use a young corner. Dooger has found a hard-hitting, athletic Demon Deacon to fill the role:
With no major holes on either side of the ball, the Titans have the luxury of selecting the best player available. Yes, they lost Albert Haynesworth in free agency, but I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by how well last year's 2nd round pick Jason Jones will fill that hole. It's never a bad idea to replenish the talent on the D-line (especially since the Titans' starting ends, Kyle Vandenbosch and Javon Kearse, are both entering the final year of their contracts), but the Titans are commited to choosing the best overall player in round 1 and the value just isn't there at defensive end.
Nick Harper is 34 years old. He is reliable in run support and covers short routes well, but he is the weakest point on a very strong Titans defense. The loss of Hayneworth likely means less pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which will require better play from the Titans secondary, particularly on deep routes.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock: Pick No. 30" »
March 24, 2009
Gregg Rosenthal and I have come to appreciate Mike Tomlin as an elite motivator as well as one of the best quotes in the NFL. The National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi sheds some light on the ingredients that go into Tomlin’s outstanding leadership style.
Ron Jaworski’s take on the Jay Cutler saga is similar to mine, only with less vitriol. Jaws believes Cutler looks “foolish” right now, but it would be a “no-brainer” for a team like the Bucs to acquire the young franchise quarterback.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Tomlin's leadership" »
February 26, 2009
D.J. Hackett went from a Rotoworld favorite to released in favor of Dwayne Jarrett in just over a year. Hackett’s inability to stay healthy marred his chance to ever become a true difference-maker in Seattle, and it kept him off the field in Carolina. At 28, he’s still young enough to rebound, but there isn’t much proof that he can stay healthy for a full season.
His best chance for relevance is in a West Coast system, where he fit well as a split end. Seattle is desperate for receiver talent, so a reunion with the Seahawks makes a lot of sense. Hackett needs someone other than Rotoworld to believe in him or he’s dangerously close to slipping out of the league.
Unlike Hackett, Drew Bennett had one season where he truly mattered in fantasy leagues. That was a long time ago, however, and his disastrous stint with the Rams is a cautionary tale for spending big money in free agency. Bennett is unlikely to be a fantasy difference-maker again, but he has a chance for relevance if he returns to Mike Heimerdinger and the Titans. That reunion should go better than the Justin McCareins revival. It can’t go worse.
February 19, 2009
Bo Scaife was the top potential free agent tight end, but now he’s not going anywhere. It’s a smart for Tennessee, who gets a small silver lining for not having the option to franchise Albert Haynesworth.
Scaife was the number 16 fantasy tight end in standard leagues in two of the last three seasons. He was a borderline TE1 in PPR leagues with a team-leading 58 catches. I like Scaife as a player, but that’s roughly his fantasy ceiling. Not too exciting.
Awesome job by Florio and collegefootballtalk.com to award their national championship to Utah.
The Ravens seem likely to go after a receiver or two this off-season, whether through the draft or free agency. I was a huge champion of Mark Clayton, but the bloom is off the rose there. I was surprised to see how quickly he was taken in my partial re-draft in my dynasty league.
We give the Raiders a lot of crap in this space, so let’s applaud them for a strong start to the offseason. They re-signed cornerback Chris Johnson at a below market rate. They re-signed one of the best punters in football, Shane Lechler. And they are close to getting an improbable deal done with Nmandi Asomugha, which would greatly lower his cap figure. (They will franchise him without a long-term deal.) I even like them planning to take Jerry Porter back at a reduced rate.
Couple those moves with the wise decision to keep Tom Cable, helping their continuity, and Oakland has some positive momentum for the first time in a long time.
February 18, 2009
Jerry Jones’ latest statements hinted that Terrell Owens may not be released after all. With nearly every national football writer predicting the opposite, the star-crossed Cowboys owner/GM may just be trying to keep the media wolves at bay.
Owens has a roster bonus due in June, so the Cowboys could make sure he’s on his best behavior before making a final decision. What’s clear is that a faction in Dallas, reportedly led by Stephen Jones and Jason Garrett, does not love them some T.O. Let’s say, for the sake of February chatter, that this faction wins out and Owens is released.
Where would Owens go? More importantly, who would be desperate and crazy enough to want Owens?
With a hearty assist to the geniuses at Beckett’s publications, here’s Rotoworld’s best guess for potential Owens landing spots.
1. Raiders: Owens will go where he’s paid the most – period. And Al Davis showed with Javon Walker that he’s not afraid to overspend to get JaMarcus Russell some help. Davis also isn’t the type of owner to worry about chemistry much.
2. Ravens: They have a huge need at the position and have shown prior interest. They also have a veteran locker room that could handle Owens. The trickiest part of the equation here might be the salary cap. Baltimore also wants to find room for Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Bart Scott.
3. Redskins: The Fighting Cerratos don’t really have the cap room, but they have to be near the top of the list of teams crazy enough to do it. Dan Snyder also invested three picks at receiver in the 2008 draft, with initially poor results. Owens would fix the position quickly and amp up Washington’s NFC East rivalries.
Continue reading "Teams that could take on T.O." »
February 13, 2009
NFL Network’s Steve Wyche has sources that say T.J. Houshmandzadeh is as good as gone in Cincy. Despite Mike Lombardi’s evaluation, I’d take him over Antonio Bryant and any other free agent receiver. The Titans, Bucs (If Bryant leaves), and Eagles were mentioned by Wyche as possible landing spots. Those all make sense, but the Eagles may feel comfortable with DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and Jason Avant now. The Titans have a big receiver need and were reportedly willing to give up a high pick for Torry Holt last year. Housh would be perfect there.
Off the top of my head, here’s how I’d rank possible landing spots, not including Cincinnati.
Continue reading "Where will Housh land?" »
February 12, 2009
The next Jets quarterback probably isn’t on the roster yet. But all the attention on Kellen Clemens (An NFL Network interview, newspaper articles) seems misplaced. If I was betting on a quarterback on the roster to play a big role in the Jets’ future, it has to be Brett Ratliff.
Redskins Head Vinny Cerrato in Charge, acting in something called Kindergarten Ninja back in 1994. We all owe Dan Steinberg a big debt of gratitude for finding this.
(Incidentally, there was far-from-confirmed scuttlebutt in Tampa that the Redskins still may have some changes coming, including in the front offices.)
Mel Kiper has lost his mind, saying he’d rather have Matt Cassel than Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers. Seriously, I respect that Kiper does his homework when you watch the draft. You can learn something when he gets into the details of a player, but I can’t take his evaluations that seriously.
The Seahawks are going zone-blocking and run-happy. That’s good news for whomever they draft at running back, and bad news for Matt Hasselbeck. A rebound back to QB1 status for Hasselbeck seems unlikely.
The Patriots haven’t talked to Vince Wilfork about an extension yet, but they will eventually. There is no chance they will let him get away; no player on the roster other than Tom Brady is more integral to their future success.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Vinny, the Kindergarten cop" »
January 26, 2009
There is some thought that perhaps Edgerrin James won't get cut after all. He's been a nice story and all this post-season, but he's still a below average starting running back. Barring a 200-yard game in the Super Bowl, I don't think there is much chance he's back in 2009 at $5 million. A ring would bolster his Hall of Fame credentials, though
Ken Whisenhunt learned something about having a consistent message from Dick Lebeau. Expect me to talk about Dick Lebeau way too much this week as I join the Steelers players in trying to get this man into the Hall of Fame discussion next year.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Will Edge stay" »
January 14, 2009
Although the Kansas City Star has a few facts on Scott Pioli wrong, (He never interviewed with the Seahawks and Giants), Jason Whitlock is in his corner! And Joe Posnanski is right there with him.
Some people are surprised about Bill Belichick's glowing, personal comments about Pioli, but they shouldn't be. For one, Belichick isn't shy about praising the few people that get his unbending respect: Randy Moss, Mike Vrabel, Tom Brady, Mike Shanahan, etc. And as Belichick said, Pioli was one of his best friends for almost 20 years and the person Belichick probably feels is as responsible for the Patriots success as anyone, including Brady and Bob Kraft. At nine years, Belichick/Pioli were the longest running coach/personnel man combo in the league.
As a Patriots fan, I feel pretty confident Josh McDaniels will be a good head coach. I never felt that about the three wisemen: Mangini, Weis, and Crennel. But I'm almost sure Pioli will turn the Kansas City franchise around. He had plenty of autonomy in New England and Belichick/Pioli learned to think as one anyhow. Pioli will bring his successful framework and system of acquisition to Kansas City, a team that never had a long-term vision. Now he just needs to find a coach.
***
Mike Lombardi has inside knowledge of what "program" Pioli will want to run. He thinks Kirk Ferentz of Iowa would fit, but Ferentz may not be willing to go pro.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Pioli moves on" »
January 13, 2009
The elephant in the Titans locker room: What are they going to do with Vince Young next season. This is among the toughest quarterback decisions I've ever seen.
Kerry Collins doesn't want to be a backup anymore, and has essentially said he'd rather retire than be a backup again. The Titans want Collins back, presumably as the favorite to start. But a two-year, $4 million contract with incentives is not starter money. They shouldn't really promise Collins anything, but Mike Lombardi thinks Collins will get the starting job in writing. Wow. They should probably look hard at available free agents, including their own Chris Simms, but Jeff Fisher's loyalty to Collins will probably carry the day.
This Titans team was built to win now. They outplayed Baltimore and had a great chance to win it all in a wide-open year. I felt bad for Jake Delhomme Saturday, but I felt worse for Jeff Fisher. This could have been his year, and a future of Young/Collins contains no promises.
***
I wrote this in column form, but I'm planning to post a big set of links here every weekday during this offseason. It will usually be in the late morning, but could be early afternoon if other work interrupts. This blog could use some structure/direction and that's a start. Not sure if I like the Skinny Posts tag enough to keep it. May try a different name. Let me know what you think. Your links are after the jump.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: What to do with Kerry Collins" »
January 12, 2009
Deion Sanders has been saying throughout the last few weeks that Donovan McNabb could care less about Eagles fans and probably still wants out after the season. This has riled up some people in Philadelphia, but it hardly seemed far-fetched. Given a chance to comment after Philly's win Sunday, McNabb essentially said that Sanders was on point. (Skip to 2:35 if interested).
"You know what Deion. Continue on with what you are saying. I'm having a ball."
McNabb is probably going to want a new contract after the season, and a Super Bowl trophy would be one hell of a negotiating tool. Even during the best of days , the McNabb Eagles have an edge to them. It's working.
***
This is why outsiders don't like the Philly media. Phil Sheridan starts his column with this line: "The impossible suddenly looks probable."
Tear them down all year, then hand them the title with two very difficult games to go. Vegas currently lists Philly as 11-5 to win the title, which sounds about right. Pittsburgh is the favorite at 3-2. And I nailed three of the final four teams!
Eagles Nation is using their good fortune as a reason for some well-reasoned introspection.
Continue reading "McNabb has no problem with Deion" »
December 22, 2008
Week 17 fantasy is often all about guessing who will rest their starters and how much. This season, with so much on the line, there really aren't that many situations to keep track of. I count four. Every other NFL team has long since been out of it or has something important to play for. Carolina's loss kept them in play. Same goes with Denver and Minnesota. The five teams who don't have anything to play for: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Arizona and the New York Giants. There is an outside chance Baltimore could be out of it. Here are my guesses about how they will treat Week 17.
Continue reading "Week 17: To Play or Not to Play" »
November 13, 2008
As a Chris Johnson owner in my two money leagues, I was eager to see how he'd fare on the road against a quality defense last week. This is really the last test of true fantasy stardom. The previous time in a similar situation, against Baltimore, he finished with only 46 total yards on 20 touches. That looked like a huge day compared to last Sunday, when the Bears held him to 23 total yards on 16 touches. I benched Matt Forte for Johnson in both leagues and it cost me one win.
So Johnson hasn't passed that test. There are many reasons for it, starting with Chicago's non-stop safety blitzes that totally disrupted the Titans running game. Chicago made the Titans throw the ball and eventually they obliged. LenDale White pilfered a potential performance-saving touchdown from Johnson, although Johnson was in on the goal line early in the game.
Whatever the reasons, Johnson isn't quite at top-five must start level yet. And you know what? I'm not that concerned. He has six games left, and four are plus matchups: Jacksonville, Detroit, Cleveland, and Houston. He should do his thing those weeks. The two tough matchups are at home. He faces the Jets in Week 12 and the Steelers in Week 16. Johnson's margin for error in tough matchups is a little lower than you'd want because White will steal some scores and the rookie is unlikely to top 20 touches. He also isn't as involved in the passing game as he could be, like Forte.
You can consider other top-15 options in place of Johnson in those two weeks - I will be benching him in those games for Matt Forte - but don't let the Bears game scare you away from Johnson's talent. This isn't the time to cash in your chips.
September 09, 2008
Vince Young is hurting in a few ways. And according to the Nashville Tennessean, the Titans may be preparing for life without him. Kerry Collins may keep the Titans job even when Young gets healthy. And that assumes Young even wants to come back, which is in some doubt. While his mother rightly asks for some "space" and "love," the NFL waits for no one.
It's a sad story for a kid who probably rose too far, too fast. He doesn't seem ready for the responsibilities he's been given. Some time away might be good for him. Fantasy leaguers should see how this week shakes out, but Young won't be worth hanging onto if this is indeed Kerry Collins' team. It's also sad that I can call a 25-year-old a 'kid" now.
These late night posts brought to you by my wife's trip to her parents
August 07, 2008
Check around your favorite team's official website this week and you'll see a new page up: Depth Charts! Teams are required to give their first depth charts of the season before their first preseason game - this week. These are fun to look at, but the coaches plead with us not to take them seriously. Sometimes, they are ridiculous. Like the Falcons putting Matt Ryan fourth at quarterback. Sometimes, coaches use them as motivational tools.
Whatever the reason, there are always a few eye openers. Here were the ones that caught my eye this week:
Continue reading "Depth Chart Shenanigans" »
June 25, 2008
Steven Jackson gets hit on by his colon cleanser, trashes the Rams fanbase, and throws his teammates' blocking under the bus, all in one jam-packed Michael Silver article.
Beyond the easy jokes I made in his blurb, there were some interesting comments from Jackson about his teammates and the state of the Rams:
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Jackson cleanses " »
May 22, 2008
Certain teams love to load up at certain positions. Tampa loves quarterbacks, Jacksonville prefers quantity over quality at wide receiver, and Tennessee just can't stop picking up running backs.
Ron Dayne is visiting the Titans today. It's not like he'll compete to start, but LenDale White owners should be hoping Dayne doesn't sign. You don't want Jeff Fisher to get confused when he's looking for a pudgy back to put in near the goal line.
May 20, 2008
This week's Fix looks at guys with the opportunity to bounce back this season. I'm not necessarily saying that they will, just that they are set up with excellent chances.
I know the one minute video is tough to bear (especially in these dark non-Tiffany summer days), so my list from the video is after the jump
Continue reading "Four Guys with the chance to bounce back" »
May 15, 2008
That's what Mike Heimerdinger calls his receiver group. 'Dinger will throw out last year's numbers when coming up with his depth chart. Here's Jim Wyatt's take on their receiver ranks.
Continue reading "One Giant Wad" »
April 28, 2008
I spent most of my morning working on a column of dynasty rookie rankings to be posted tomorrow. Along those lines, Rotoworld dynasty pro Chris Wesseling selected his 15 dynasty tumblers of the weekend. Willie Parker owners are just now cleaning off the footprint on their stomachs.
It's a great list, with my only small complaint being LenDale White being ranked fifth, four spots ahead of Chris Henry. Chris Johnson isn't going to help White, but I think there are enough carries to go around. White finished sixth in the NFL in carries last year despite Henry's presence and Chris Brown topping 100. I figure Johnson just replaces Brown's carries. And Henry remains a bust.
April 18, 2008
If you liked debating about backfield committee's, you'll love this pick
The chatter you will hear when the Titans are on the clock will be the inevitable cries for a WR. I can already see Kiper pontificating about how the Titans need to add some weapons to aid in Vince Young’s development. I am even convinced that after watching Lendale plod for just over 1000yds and his receivers lumber through their routes, that smash mouth Jeff Fisher realizes he needs to add some speed and playmakers as well.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No.24" »
April 10, 2008
The last two players in our Tough to Rank series were Javon Walker and Derek Anderson. Didn't get too many specific numbers for Anderson, although I got the diverging opinion (Top-five to outside the top-ten) that I'd expect. People don't seem too worried about Brady Quinn.
Walker got a shockingly low average of WR 40.5, showing the Pancake Blocks reader's infinite wisdom. He'll get drafted in the top-25, but Rotoworld has him pegged much closer to his Tough to Rank score. Today, we'll look at Vince Young.
Continue reading "Tough to Rank: Vince Young" »
March 05, 2008
Once upon a time, Julius Jones was getting taken near the first round of fantasy drafts. Sorry about that one. Now he's the most interesting running back left on the free agent market. Let's rank where he could end up by projected 2008 fantasy value.
4. Tampa Bay - The Bucs have "expressed interest" but haven't visited with Jones. He could caddy for Earnest Graham there, but they already have a speed threat with poor instincts - Michael Bennett. Julius could hope following his brother's career path leads to similar results.
3. Tennessee - Bad sign for Chris Henry that the Titans are hosting Jones on Wednesday. LenDale White will keep his starting job, but the Titans would like some speed off the bench. Jones would be an RB4 in fantasy leagues here.
Continue reading "Pick a home for Julius Jones" »
February 07, 2008
I cleaned out my inbox after my trip, and found a good question on what new/old Titans offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger could have on the team's fantasy fortunes.
'Dinger's hire is good news for LenDale White and Vince Young. The Titans, under Heimerdinger, were a power running team that finished in the top 11 in rush attempts each season, finishing in the top four twice. They weren't that successful per-play, but they loved to grind the ball. That fits White's style well, and could mean 325+ carries if he stays healthy. White just went in the middle of the fourth round of a day-after season Mock Draft I'm in the middle of. He could be a great value again.
Continue reading "Heimerdinger should help Titans" »
January 16, 2008
One of the worst-kept secrets surrounding the 2006 draft was that Titans offensive coordinator Norm Chow wanted to draft Matt Leinart over Vince Young, and most believed that coach Jeff Fisher felt the same way. Owner Bud Adams, a Texas native, wanted Young and got his man. That's an awkward way for any coordinator-QB relationship to start, and its inevitable end came Wednesday when Chow was fired.
Continue reading "Vince Young: Offensive coordinator killer?" »
January 07, 2008
Links while recovering from a solid B+ slate of Wild Card games, now only five days away from the best weekend of pro football of the season.
* The dark last days of Cam Cameron. Some jaw-dropping stuff in here about Joey Porter just lambasting Cameron in front of the team Cameron seems like the ultimate coordinator that is not head coach material.
* The Tennessee papers were surprisingly negative about the Titans this morning, but I can see their point. They had a great opportunity, and they gave it away. The defensive breakdowns were tough to overcome. Keith Bullock points the finger at the offense.
Finnegan's wake: Cortland has a career-making first half only to be filleted for 30 minutes after halftime.
Continue reading "Linked: Post Wild Card weekend" »
The Titans needed to play a perfect game Sunday to beat the Chargers. They came up a few plays short.
Some that immediately come to mind were Chris Brown's fumble in the first half and Ron Bironas' missed field goal in the second half. For the Titans to defeat a much-more-talented team, they needed to capitalize in the red zone. Albert Hayesworth's penalty and the defensive breakdowns in the secondary were also problematic.
As always, Jeff Fisher had his team playing its guts out. They went further than they had any right, mostly on the back of a strong defensive line and a no-name secondary. In a year-to-year league where it's dangerous to assume teams are on the "upswing", the Titans have a young roster that should be solid for years to come.
Vince Young needs to show growth next season, but he will play better if they get him some receivers. LenDale White proved to be the opposite of his reputation: a hard-charging, no-nonsense player who fought through injuries.
Kudos to the San Diego Chargers for that second-half effort. They won a game with very little help from LaDainian Tomlinson, who had more pouts than big plays. They dominated a strong defense with a 17-0 second-half score, mostly on the arm of Philip Rivers. Every football writer in the country was ready to pounce on San Diego if the halftime score held up, but they played a nearly perfect 30 minutes.
January 04, 2008
What a miserable week for the Titans after making the playoffs Sunday night.
* LenDale White's grandmother passed away, and his knee is ailing.
* Their starting tight end, Bo Scaife, is now out for the season with a lacerated liver.
* A starting wideout Roydell Williams suffered a rare practice injury, breaking his ankle on Wednesday.
* Their quarterback started a small controversy, aided by Rotoworld Grand Poobah Rick Cordella, when he raised the possibility of collusion during a radio appearance.
* Vince Young didn't practice fully all week, and will officially be a game-time decision. Even though it would be a shock if he sat.
*
I never count a Jeff Fisher team out. They max out their ability, and have already made it further than they should have. I desperately want the Titans to put a scare into San Diego, but I fear that all the important action of the weekend will be over by halftime of Sunday afternoon's game.
***
While I'm incorrectly predicting games, I also like the Redskins and Jaguars to win on the road, with Tampa holding off the Giants.
January 03, 2008
If I was a smart blog writer, I’d break up this top-ten busts of the year into ten posts, increase the amount of hits, set up some content in a slow time of year, and everyone would be happy. But I’m too impatient. Let's break it into two more posts, all in one day.
10. Cedric Benson, Bears - It’s never a good sign when fantasy owners are relieved by season-ending injuries. The Bears stayed faithful as long as possible, but it’s hard to imagine Benson being handed the unquestioned starting job next year, no matter what he says.
9. Travis Henry, Broncos - Like Benson, injuries were a factor. But the reality is that Henry suited up 12 times, and he didn’t top 51 rushing yards in his last seven games. What looked like a great marriage for Henry in Denver could end after one season.
8. Mark Clayton, Ravens - No one gave fantasy owners less on this list than Clayton. He was drafted as a solid WR3 (Average Draft Position among top 30 wideouts), and never showed up for his third season. The Baltimore offense doesn’t fully explain his struggles because Derrick Mason has a similar style game.
7. Vince Young, Titans - Statistically, it was hard to argue against Young going into the season. He was a top-five fantasy QB when he played as a rookie. Fantasy Nation’s gut didn’t love him, though. His ADP was eighth, we ranked him ninth. He finished 17th and only 26th in per-game average. Trust the gut.
6. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - Don’t let LJ’s solid three-game finish before his foot injury cloud his season. He was held to five fantasy points or less in half his games, and didn’t score until Week 5. He put his owners in a huge hole, he got hurt, and then he gave out false hope that he might help them in the fantasy playoffs.
We'll finish off the busts in the morning, along with the second half of the Top 30 keepers. Thanks for the patience. In the meantime, check out today's supersized Playoff prop bet edition of the Fantasy Fix, which unfortunately includes an Omar Epps impression. If that doesn't keep you from clicking, I don't know what will.
November 15, 2007
I'm not sure who is going to get the carries in Denver Monday Night, but I know the Broncos will have a lot easier time running if Albert Hayesworth is out. My favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, Albert Haynesworth, missed a light practice Wednesday and is uncertain about his status.
Travis LaBoy was also out last week against the Jaguars, and Tennessee's stout defense just wasn't the same. Selvin Young and Travis Henry should keep an eye on Haynesworth in addition to Henry in practice reports this week.
October 19, 2007
Before the season, I wrote that the fates of the impressive 2006 rookie quarterbacks (Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler) would help define this fantasy season. Quarterbacks usually take their biggest leap in their second season, but all three of these guys have struggled.
* Matt Leinart was ineffective, stuck in a rotation, and then broke his collarbone.
* After being a top-5 fantasy quarterback when he played last year, Vince Young is the QB25 this year and may miss this week's game.
* Jay Cutler has been erratic. And while I believe his numbers are encouraging except for an ugly TD:INT ratio (4:6), he just took a major hit with Javon Walker out indefinitely.
Continue reading "Cutler, Walker, Young continue slide" »
September 24, 2007
This is the third Titans game I've watched this year, and there is no doubt in my mind that Albert Haynesworth is the best defensive player I've seen all year. He has absolutely dominated the games against Jacksonville and tonight against the Saints. He made his share of plays when matched up against Jeff Saturday of the Colts.
Haynesworth, who is in a contract year, will be a good test of how important "character" really is to front offices. He's had problems throughout his career, but might be the premier free agent available if he hits the market this offseason. My guess is he'll get paid monster dollars, baggage and all.
I couldn't catch who started at wideout, but I know that four wide receivers all played within the first four snaps: Brandon Jones, Eric Moulds, Justin Gage, and Roydell Williams.
Jones and Williams, both draft picks in 2005, clearly have the most potential. It's going to be hard for both of them to have consistent fantasy value if the snaps are cut up four ways. Jones is the only one worth owning in most leagues.
September 12, 2007
Every NFL week is full of surprises; the ones early in the year just get more attention. Here's a quick list of players I'm watching closely this week.
1. Marshawn Lynch - After watching the Shortcuts of this game, I'm pretty sure he's for real. You can't teach breaking tackles. A good game against Pittsburgh would solidify his RB2 status.
2. Chris Brown - The Titans offensive line was fierce. Let's see if they can blow up the Colts.
3. Jaguars runners - Their offensive line got pushed around. Look for a better effort against the Falcons.
4. Saints offense - I know it was only one game. But I still want to see what they do against the Bucs.
Continue reading "Surprises" »
September 11, 2007
One player I left out of Waiver Wired was Chris Brown, primarily because I thought he was owned in all leagues.
But a few emailers tell me I'm wrong, and a little research shows he's available in roughly 40% of fantasy leagues.
Continue reading "Chris Brown" »
August 31, 2007
Let's look back at my keys for Thursday night and see if we learned anything
Clinton Portis - Redskins Insider says Portis got his wish by sitting out the game. It's not a huge concern on it's own, but this is different than LT2 or Westbrook sitting out. They have practiced more than five times all camp and aren't coming off multiple surgeries.
Oakland quarterback battle - Daunte Culpepper appears to have the edge, but it's not by much. We may not know for sure until gametime.
Tennessee skill players - In a surprise, the Titans played their starters into the second half. And LenDale White was one of those starters, playing well, and delivering an awesome block to spring Vince Young for a touchdown. A committee looks likely early, with White the lead back.
Brandon Jones started over Roydell Williams and caught a touchdown pass. Jeff Fisher has been playing games with this spot, but Jones now appears likely to get the call in Week 1. Wait to see how it shakes out, but hold on to Jones.
Continue reading "Thursday Night Lights" »
August 25, 2007
I'll admit that Brandon Jones has been one of my favorite "sleepers" since I first saw him play in 2005. He has great hands and superior physical skills. While James Jones has ripped through the preseason this year, I tried to think of another similar preseason star at wideout, and Brandon Jones was the first that came to mind.
Jones' development was slowed by a torn ACL as a rookie, but he looked to be on track to be the number one receiver in Tennessee this year. The local papers have hinted around at a disappointing summer, and Jeff Fisher confirmed it last night. Roydell Williams and Eric Moulds started at wideout.
Continue reading "Brandon Jones: Sleeping" »
August 23, 2007
So LenDale did return to practice. Maybe he heard the message loud and clear.
White is a little too confident he'll be the Week 1 starter, but I do think that's the direction Jeff Fisher will go if White has a big weekend. Which gives me an idea for a later post: The most important people to watch in preseason Week 3, which is the only true dress rehearsal of the month.
* Incidentally, kudos to Florio for breaking the Pete Kendall to Washington trade. Nice move by the Redskins to shore up a solid offensive line.
August 22, 2007
LenDale White is one of Rotoworld's favorite value plays this season, but he's missing practices at a bad time. White has been out for more than a week, and Titans RB coach Sherman Smith threw down the gauntlet Monday, challenging White to get back on the field. Missing practices wouldn't be a huge deal for a veteran, but it's a consistent problem for White as a pro.
Continue reading "LenDale better hurry up" »
August 15, 2007
It's rare to hear truly threatening trash talk in today's NFL, but Keith Bulluck provided some true bulletin board material for the Patriots on Tuesday. Too bad it's only the preseason.
"It is only a preseason game, but No. 87 (Caldwell) needs to keep his head on a swivel, that's all I've got to say ... He is probably the sixth receiver, so I don't even know if he'll be in when I'm in. There are no personal vendettas or anything like that, there is just one person in particular that sticks out in mind. If he is (in the game) I'll know. Trust me."
Continue reading "Bulluck ready for payback" »
August 02, 2007
I’m writing up a two-part column projecting the amount of carries for each team around the league. I have the Titans pegged around 385 carries from the running backs, which is a little above average. Jeff Fisher likes to pound the ball, but a below average offense should keep the totals in check.
It’s time to reassign the carries after Chris Henry’s poor camp. He’s looks to be a distant third to two veteran runners, LenDale White and Chris Brown. We had him projected for 110 carries, which made him the 45th ranked running back. I see a lot of owners drafting him as a sleeper in the ninth-round or so. At this point, I think it’s throwing away a pick. This kid is too raw. I’m taking 55 carries from him, and splitting them up between White and Brown. Here’s how I’ll give the carries now.
Continue reading "Projecting Change: Titans RBs (again)" »
August 01, 2007
The best catch of training camp was made by Courtney Roby in Tennessee Tuesday. Or at least the best pictures. Nice job there by George Walker of the Tennessean.
Roby, incidentally, is now running with the first team over Roydell Williams. With Eric Moulds playing well, it will be interesting to see who starts at wideout for the Titans in the preseason.
July 26, 2007
I don't blame the Titans for signing Eric Moulds. He's a player on the downside of his career, but 138 catches over the last two seasons cannot be ignored. Tennessee's entire roster of wideouts except David Givens (who may not play this year) barely has that many catches over their combined careers.
Moulds' 9.95 yards-per-catch during 2005-2006 also can't be ignored. That's a figure that indicates he couldn't make Jeff Fisher miss in the open field. His dial-up speed is why two wideout-needy teams have dumped him in two years, in addition to his formerly high salary. Moulds isn't guaranteed to make the Titans, but he will give Vince Young a target who will run his routes correctly. The same probably can't be said for Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby, and the Tennessee rookies.
Continue reading "Titans add Eric Moulds to Quagmire" »
July 24, 2007
We're now posting two-fers of the Top 50 Position battles ...
# 18. Titans number two wideout: Roydell Williams vs. Courtney Roby vs. Justin Gage
We’re going to assume that David Givens misses the start of the season, if not the whole thing. We’re also going to assume Brandon Jones takes one of the starting jobs. Williams is reportedly the slight favorite going into training camp, but he’s been inconsistent to invisible throughout his career. The same can be said for Roby.
Only owners in deep leaguers are going to want to draft the winner of this battle.
Continue reading "Davenport vs. Barlow/Williams vs. Roby" »
June 22, 2007
LenDale has company
The Titans and Bucs wrapped up their minicamp season this week, leaving only the Broncos with any on-field work left before training camp. Here's what I took from Tennessee's session.
The Titans will open training camp not knowing their starters at running back, wide receiver and tight end. Let's look quickly at where each position stands.
1. Running Back - LenDale White, Chris Brown, Chris Henry, and Quinton Ganther
I still think White is the favorite to start, but it's clear Brown will have every opportunity to enjoy a major role. My guess is that Brown starts the season behind the best young player, probably White. As our new writer Brian Flood wrote, the backup in Tennessee is probably the best fantasy bet because he'll be cheap.
2. Wide Receiver - Brandon Jones, Courtney Roby, Roydell Williams, Paul Williams, Justin Gage, David Givens
Givens could start the year on the PUP list and possibly may miss the season. Jones has a starting job locked up, but reportedly hasn't had a great summer. He's still a fine prospect and a nice sleeper pick. We have no idea how the rest of this group will shake out and we're not sure it will matter for most fantasy leaguers. The coaching staff doesn't seem to know yet if anyone here will step up.
3. Tight End - Bo Scaife, Ben Hartsock, Ben Troupe - It looks like Hartsock will improbably start for the Titans because of his blocking skills. He still has no fantasy value. That leaves Scaife and Troupe to battle for the "pass-catching" tight end job in the offense. There is some potential for the winner of that battle for be a quality TE2.
All of this uncertainty is rough news for the development of Vince Young this season.
***
My wife's birthday takes center stage this weekend, and I'm also preparing to head to Dallas next week to put our second magazine to bed. Thanks for stopping by and making this a record week of traffic on the blog. See you Monday.
June 19, 2007
Chris Brown’s return to the Titans makes a muddled situation in the Tennessee backfield … muddier. They are the only team in the league where any one of three players could start at running back in Week 1 – Brown, LenDale White, or Chris Henry. This is truly an open competition.
Make no mistake: Brown’s re-signing was necessitated by the slow development of Chris Henry and especially LenDale White. Both of the younger backs are under contract for at least three more years and fit the power-running ideal that Jeff Fisher has preferred since the days of Eddie George. Brown, an upright speedster, never fit the mold and the Titans probably expected to wave goodbye to him this summer. The young runners wouldn’t allow it.
White has obvious talent and looked solid on Sundays as a rookie, but he’s been hurt and overweight since the day he was drafted. Henry is a bigger mystery, a classic workout wonder who shot up the draft boards with a big NFL Combine performance and little production at Arizona. The little we’ve heard about Henry this spring has been negative. While most rookies are subjects of puff pieces and coaches praise at minicamps, Henry has noticeably failed to make an impact. He had a chance to seize control of the starting job with White on the sidelines and failed. Enter Brown.
Who is Chris Brown?
The veteran hasn’t been the same since suffering a turf toe injury midway through 2004. Brown burst on to the fantasy football scene that year with four 100-yard games in his first five starts on the strength of big plays. He only had two the rest of the season and zero since as a myriad of injuries, mostly to his toe, have slowed him down. Brown’s upright running style also makes him an easy target for defenses and unlikely to hold up as a primary runner for 16 games. I doubt Jeff Fisher plans to use him that way.
When re-doing my projections for the Titans, I see Brown settling into a backup/third-down role. His speed can provide a change-of-pace off the bench to the winner of the LenDale White-Chris Henry battle. If the youngsters struggle, the division of carries may look more like a committee, although Fisher has been reluctant to go that route in the past. He’s more likely to flip-flop primary backs depending on performance.
With our magazine going to print next week, that leaves my projection for Brown as the following.
RSH/YD/TD/REC/YD/TD
90/350/1/18/144/0
That doesn’t look like much, but it places Brown as our 58th ranked RB in standard scoring, and slightly higher in points-per-reception leagues. If you were drafting today, he should be one of the last running backs selected.
You probably don’t have to draft today. These Titans projections are going to change one way or another before Week 1. If Brown is immediately running with the first-team at minicamp, the projection may change tomorrow.
What about the young guys?
The Titans would love to be a run-heavy team. I have them slotted for 375 carries from their running backs. That leaves 285 for White and Henry. I currently have White slotted for 180 and Henry pegged at 105.
Despite all his problems, White is the best bet for fantasy value entering training camp. He has a year of experience on Henry and was productive in college. He looked like he belonged last season.
Continue reading "Projecting Change: Brown, White, and Henry" »
June 11, 2007
Criticizing the Sopranos series finale is like a Patriots fan questioning a Bill Belichick decision. I can't do it. It's not my place to doubt a near-genius at the top of his craft. The Sopranos was the greatest filmed entertainment I've ever seen, an 86-hour dissection of family, life in the 2000's, everything. The fact that it ended, like many of their episodes, on an existentialist bent, doesn't surprise me. I think the stunning two episodes leading up to the finale raised expectations too much for a bloody finale. David Chase usually fired his big guns before the last shows, when you least expected it, and that was the case in the amazing last season. I'm thankful we were able to watch it so long.
As I wonder if A.J. ever gets a chance to be the next great D movie producer, here were the links I found on a quiet Football Monday morning ...
Miami had their minicamp this weekend. Cam Cameron is rightly talking about a youth movement. That means two rookie starters on the offensive line. It also means Derek Hagan, suddenly Cameron's pet project, is going to get playing time. Hagan has a lot of potential. He makes the spectacular grab, but drops the easy one. I could see Miami getting rid of Marty Booker before the season and handing Hagan the starting job if he progresses.
Booker in trouble?
Ted Ginn is another candidate for the starting job. After all the concerns about his foot, he was reportedly flying by defenders at minicamp. Cameron compared him to Desmond Howard, which I'm not sure is a good thing. For fantasy leaguers, I wouldn't expect much out of Ginn as a rookie.
Continue reading "What do you want, a boutonniere?" »
June 01, 2007
LenDale White finally returned to practice Thursday, just in time for practices to end for three weeks. May stories tend to fade, so I’m more concerned with what Jeff Fisher thinks of him in mid-August. White's inactivity gave rookie Chris Henry a chance to show what he can do.
Keyshawn Johnson’s retirement is rough news for Vince Young. With an inexperienced wideout group, Young will be forced to rely on tight ends Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe. Scaife is solid, but has faded late in the season twice in a row. Troupe is in a contract year and has been a disappointment despite similar skills to Ben Watson. Tennessee’s roster demands that Troupe get one more shot, so we’re not giving up on him yet.
Brandon Jones is the only Tennessee wideout worth drafting. If I had to guess the other Week 1 starter, I’d say it will be either Courtney Roby or Roydell Williams. Williams is reportedly having a fine offseason. Justin Gage and rookie Paul Williams are also in the mix. David Givens looks likely to start the year on the PUP list and could miss the whole year. The Titans are doing their best to stack the deck against Young.
May 30, 2007
Lots of links today, many from this morning, and a few tasty leftovers from the holiday weekend.
I crave information, basically anything related to football. There is a line, however, where it all becomes too much. Finding out how many beef sticks Tank Johnson eats in jail crosses the line. Do people really care about this?
Jeff Garcia and Jon Gruden have had a crush on each other for a while. This probably won't end well for either guy. Or Chris Simms.
The other man
This is the type of ridiculously positive article you expect on a team site. But since it's about Maurice Stovall, a player I own, I'm eating it up. The kid may struggle to stay healthy because he runs so upright, but he looked like he belonged last year.
Speaking of team sites, it was pretty surprising to see ChicagoBears.com declare that Michael Okwo is more talented than Jamar Williams. Okwo remains the long-term favorite to take Lance Briggs' job.
Any article that ends with a player wanting to get a mullet is going to get a link here. Although Jared Allen has a long way to go to match this one.
Continue reading "Linked" »
May 29, 2007
Another day, another article hammering Lendale White for his lackadaisal work ethic. This time, it's Jeff Fisher getting on LenDale's case.
“Everybody else managed to make it back, he didn’t,” Fisher said. “Maybe there are things that are more important to him than things that we are doing. I’ll assume he’ll be back at some point today. He had some kind of flight problem or something like that,” Fisher said. “No one else seemed to have flight problems. ... I’ve been on record with being disappointed with him. I hope to have him back on the practice field, but again everybody else was here and he wasn’t. I’m anxious to hear what kind of excuse he has.”
Fat, lazy, and stupid is no way to go through an NFL career. And White is going to make it roughly as far as his old teammate Mike Williams if this keeps up.
After canvassing some opinion across Fantasy Nation, especially the people that work in the industry, I can't imagine White's stock getting much lower unless he gets released. And that's why it may be time to go after him in keeper leagues.
Unlike Williams, White looked very capable between the lines when he played as a rookie. He is only 22 years old and his only competition for carries this season is Arizona's Chris Henry, who has very little track record.
It's late May, and the impact of minicamp stories are always overblown. Just about everything from this summer will be forgetten when real practices with tackling start in August. White may not 'get it' by then, but he will be a great candidate to be undervalued in fantasy leagues if he does.
I make a habit of going after reclamation projects on my fantasy teams. Swimming against the popular current for talented players is the best way. It doesn't always pay off, but acquiring premium talent on the cheap pays dividends in the long run. White owners may be ready to panic and sell him for a third receiver or backup running back. I'd take a shot.
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