Tiffany and I talked this week about value at every position. Veterans coming off bad years like Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger and young running backs like Ahmad Bradshaw and Ray Rice. I also talk tight end value, and well, yeah, just check it out.
Or don't. There's no way I'll know the difference.
Rashard Mendenhall received quite a bit of support in the Dynasty rankings comments from owners who believe that the Steelers will simply let Willie Parker walk when his contract expires after the season.
In the interest of full disclosure, I advised buying Mendenhall and selling FWP back in February. I believe in Mendenhall's talent, and, more importantly, I stand in awe of the Steelers' track record in developing first-round talent.
With the final pick in the Pancake Blocks Mock draft, Steelers rep KB brazenly fires a shot across Ray Lewis' bow:
The Steelers are often referred as a smash-mouth football team, however, they could not convert 3rd and short to save their lives last season. Mike Tomlin would like to be able to put games away in the 4th quarter and give Dick LeBeau’s stellar, aging defensive line a breather. The Steelers have the runners to get the job done; the offensive line is this team’s Achilles heel.
The return of “Steeler football” begins in the trenches. While OTs Max Starks and Willie Colon are only signed for next season, the Steelers would be wise to beef up the interior O-line.
Gregg Rosenthal and I have come to appreciate Mike Tomlin as an elite motivator as well as one of the best quotes in the NFL. The National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi sheds some light on the ingredients that go into Tomlin’s outstanding leadership style.
Ron Jaworski’s take on the Jay Cutler saga is similar to mine, only with less vitriol. Jaws believes Cutler looks “foolish” right now, but it would be a “no-brainer” for a team like the Bucs to acquire the young franchise quarterback.
Despite injuries costing Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall a combined 17 games, Pittsburgh's run-to-pass ratio last year was 460:506. Only three teams in the AFC (BAL, NE, TEN) ran more.
The Steelers' offseason moves indicate that they plan to maintain a balanced to run-first offense. They franchised LT Max Starks, a powerful run blocker but a liability in pass protection, and gave a pricey first-round tender to restricted free agent RT Willie Colon, who has one of the nastier mean streaks in the league.
Pittsburgh has not sought to shake up its line and is unlikely to upgrade at left tackle with the No. 32 overall pick. The Steelers could draft a project like UConn's William Beatty, but Starks is fairly certain to keep his starting position.
The NFL Network showed a replay of Super Bowl XLIII last night in its entirety. I was able to see a few things for the first time, since so much of the action came at the opposite end from my seat in the press box. This post isn’t remotely timely, but one of the most exciting fourth quarters in Super Bowl history should have a two-week shelf life … right?
A few final, random thoughts
It’s easy to say in retrospect, but Arizona went against their nature some by forgoing blitzes on Pittsburgh’s final two plays. The Steelers only left five in to block for maximum receivers, but Ben Roethlisberger felt virtually no pressure.
Before the winning touchdown, Pittsburgh had 15 plays inside the ten-yard line, and ten inside the five-yard line, with only one offensive touchdown. That nearly was the difference. Arizona’s defense made just enough big plays to keep them in the game despite the Harrison return.
The column is up and I'm back at my hotel for a quick stop before a morning flight. I'm not thinking straight enough to put together coherent thoughts on how the Steelers won, but here are a few stray things I learned after the game that I'd like to record before my goldfish-like memory forgets it all.
I stood right next to Dan Rooney as we both tried to get into a packed locker room well after the game. Even the owner of the team was having trouble going where he wanted. I’ve never met Rooney before, of course, but I said congratulations. I asked if championships were like kids or if you are allowed to have favorites. I hate that question, but it just came out. He said all championships are good, but the first one is the most special.
James Farrior said earlier in the week that he wasted too long with the media and missed a lot of the celebration the last time they won. This time, he made sure to finish up the minimum time on his podium, then run like hell out of the room while screaming in joy.
Gary Russell, despite being a rookie, seemed as overwhelmed and happy as any Steeler. Just beaming, continuing to say, “It’s better than I thought. And I’m speechless.” He said he didn’t get too caught up in his touchdown run because he had to get right back on the field for special teams.
I didn’t go into the locker room until after most of the podium pressers. It’s a strange place to be, with so many happy players trying to enjoy their moment while out-numbered by media. Chris Hoke and all the defensive linemen took turns taking pictures with the Lombardi trophy. Some players dressed and bolted as fast as possible to the team buses.
The most awkward scene in a locker room full of them was seeing ten people surround Ben Roethlisberger as he had a tearful conversation on the phone. Everyone was maintaining a respectful 5-10 feet, but it was like we were watching the “Ben Roethlisberger Show.”
Hines Ward teared up at the podium while holding his son and talking about what the Rooneys meant to him. He said he “couldn’t describe” the pain he played in. He said the injury was a 5-6 week injury. He held up well early, but blocking wore him down. Ward’s teammates have taken to calling him Papa Smurf. My wife calls him Hinesy.
The Cardinals out-gained the Steelers 129 to 27 by turning almost exclusively to the pass, which seems like a good idea, despite the final result of Kurt Warner's bone-headed pick. All nine Cardinals first downs are via the pass.
Most of the stats are close. The big difference is that Arizona didn't score off Ben Roethlisberger's interception. James Harrison scored a touchdown off Warner's throw that none of us will ever forget.
The Steelers get a chance to show they really can run the ball now with a two-score lead at halftime of the Super Bowl. If Willie Parker has a half-way decent second half, it's probably all over.
Already the press box is debating whether Tyree's play of Harrison's play is more amazing. I'd vote Tyree. Also I can confirm that that the sound-proof press box was the only place in the stadium not rocked by Bruce Springsteen. Many of us wanted to get out to listen, but it wasn't possible. So we were typing.
Karlos Dansby with his tenth career interception after Bryan Robinson tipped a Ben Roethlisberger pass. Dansby is a great player in the open field, so Mewelde Moore did a terrific job laying the wood on Dansby. And Dansby did a better job holding on to the ball.
Karlos Dansby with his tenth career interception after Bryan Robinson tipped a Ben Roethlisberger pass. Dansby is a great player in the open field, so Mewelde Moore did a terrific job laying the wood on Dansby. And Dansby did a better job holding on to the ball.
By the letter of the law, the chop block call on Edgerrin James was correct. It's questionable whether the linemen were engaged though when James hit the defender. That more or less killed a possible scoring drive for Arizona, with LaMarr Woodley's sack on Levi Brown pushing the Cardinals further backward. The game is moving very quickly. Both teams have had three possessions in 27+ minutes.
Arizona needs to stay out third-and-long situations to keep Dick Lebeau's blitzes at bay. On their third-and-17, James Harrison blitzed without getting touched, ending the play before it started.
I'm surprised Mike Tomlin didn't go for the touchdown from the one-foot line. He did a lot during the year with mixed results. Pittsburgh's short-yardage struggles were certainly a factor in the decision.
No one will ever accuse Neil Rackers of having weak leg. He just nailed a 60-yarder in warmups, and hit the crossbar from 65. So we know where he's good from.
Jeff Reed hit from 55 with at least five yards to spare. It's always amazing to see the kickers warm-up, because they simply never miss in practice.
The crowd is picking up, but it's a closed-air press box, so it's hard to get a feel of how loud it really is. When the Steelers came out, and the place exploded. The Cardinals came out, and one or two sections cheer. It sounds pretty loud - the towels are in full effect. I suspect it's way louder than last year, if only because most of the crowd is for one team.
Ben Roethlisberger to Jerome Bettis: "It's the Super Bowl. Everyone should be nervous." Except the writers!
Cardinals inactives: NT Alan Branch, CB Eric Green, FB Tim Castille, LB Victor Hobson, OL Elliot Vallejo, OT Brandon Keith, TE Jerame Tuman, and third QB Brian St. Pierre.
Two of the former Steelers on the roster (St. Pierre and Tuman) won't be able to try to beat their former team. J.J. Arrington will return kicks and play despite being listed as questionable. Defensive ends Antonio Smith and Travis LaBoy will play, as expected.
Steelers inactives: S Anthony Smith, third QB Dennis Dixon, CB Fernando Bryant, OLB Bruce Davis, OT Tony Hills, OT Jason Capizzi, DL Scott Paxson, and DE Orpheus Roye are out for Pittsburgh. No major surprises there. Smith told me about his plans to hit Larry Fitzgerald as much as possible in the game - he won't get the the chance.
Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin spent part of their day issuing non-denial denials to Mike Florio's report that Big Ben underwent an x-ray on his sore ribs Wednesday. This morning, ESPN's bottom line going across their Austrailian Open coverage and Mike and Mike confirmed the report.
In typical ESPN style, they didn't credit Mike Florio or mention who from ESPN has confirmed the report. "Ben Roethlisberger underwent a second x-ray Wednesday on the rib injury he suffered in the AFC championship game," simply ran across the bottom line.
Again, Roethlisberger is clearly well enough to play and probably play well. But Pittsburgh's odd refusal to recognize this story makes it appear they don't want it to become a bigger story.
I spent the day talking to both teams, scrambing to get to the Steelers in time to be shut down by Ben Roethlisberger, omitted from a quote sheet, and then trying to overcome a computer meltdown. I'll get Edge's thoughts about his new Lambo, my long chat with the grestest strength coach ever, John Lott, and my fawning Tulane Mewelde Moore love tomorrow. For now, it's another column for NBCSports.com. My last until Sunday! Here was the Larry Fitzgerald column I filed last night. And for all you Steelers fans out there, a writer can appreciate Kurt Warner and Fitz without "hating on" your team! After talking to Moore today, it would be cool to see him get a ring. Both of us couldn't think of a Green Wave that has one.
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The mood in Tampa has shifted dramatically today. The fans have arrived en masse. I got dinner last night with a few other writers near our hotel, and saw every possible ESPN personality at the restaurant. No one bugged them at all - that would not be possible tonight. The relatively empty downtown has been haunted only by media schlubs with an embarrasing pass dangling around their necks for the last five days. Now it's jamming. It's also raining, which is bad luck for the Coors Light girls who were scheduled to appear at the outdoor pool bar downstairs in our hotel. (No, I wasn't going to go. Yes, you can see the pool from the elevator, which is a nice bonus.)
James Harrison, who I have tried to stay away from all week because he frightens me, was not an admirer of any particular football player growing up. In fact, he doesn't really like sports.
"I really didn't watch sports. I still don't watch sports. I go home and I watch cartoons 24/7. I couldn't tell yu what's on ESPN or NFL Network or whatever it may be. Like this right here? I won't see this. I don't have a favorite cartoon but I have a group of cartoons that I like to watch like Adult Swim, Family Guy, American Dad and stuff like that. Or I can go old-school with Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, and a little bit of Pink Panther." (Agreed that you don't want too much Pink Panther.)
For some reason, this makes Harrison more terrifying to me.
While we're on the subject of Harrison, I got one oddly revealing tidbit from Steelers LB Lamarr Woodley. He said he expected Harrison to have a lot of coverage responsibilties in this game, while Woodley rushed the passer more. The news just sorta slipped out in the middle of a rant, so I don't think he's planting intentionally wrong seeds.
James Harrison, who I have tried to stay away from all week because he frightens me, was not an admirer of any particular football player growing up. In fact, he doesn't really like sports.
"I really didn't watch sports. I still don't watch sports. I go home and I watch cartoons 24/7. I couldn't tell yu what's on ESPN or NFL Network or whatever it may be. Like this right here? I won't see this. I don't have a favorite cartoon but I have a group of cartoons that I like to watch like Adult Swim, Family Guy, American Dad and stuff like that. Or I can go old-school with Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, and a little bit of Pink Panther." (Agreed that you don't want too much Pink Panther.)
For some reason, this makes Harrison more terrifying to me.
While we're on the subject of Harrison, I got one oddly revealing tidbit from Steelers LB Lamarr Woodley. He said he expected Harrison to have a lot of coverage responsibilties in this game, while Woodley rushed the passer more. The news just sorta slipped out in the middle of a rant, so I don't think he's planting intentionally wrong seeds.
"I don't know where that came from,” Fitzgerald started, but then didn’t exactly shoot down the reports.
"Someone asked me if I'd be willing to do something to help the team and I said absolutely. ... This is an amazing feeling and I'll do anything I have to do to get back to this point."
Fitzgerald is a very honest and open interview subject. He answered a question about helping the team; of course he wants to. Whether that’s feasible or necessary is another question.
Fitzgerald’s agent Eugene Parker, probably isn’t in love with the topic being out in the ether so publicly. Ultimately, Parker will have the biggest say here and would probably prefer that these conversations not go on during Super Bowl week.
It’s also worth pointing out that Arizona has a lot of cap room. They have every reason to want to keep Boldin happy, and NFL.com’s Adam Schefter cites league sources that believe Boldin will be happy to stay if the Cardinals give him a sufficient offer.
And why shouldn’t they? Boldin is a highly productive player in his prime, who is far more of a team leader than his recent reputation would suggest. We’ll hear plenty of Boldin rumors early in the off-season, but the most likely endgame is that he’ll return to the Cardinals.
I focused most of my media day energy on some goofy videos that we'll get up on the site over the next few days. That didn't leave a lot of time for "football" questions, but that's what the rest of the week is for. I found last year that the sessions with the players from Wednesday-to-Friday were a lot more useful for getting good info. With that said, here are a few stray thoughts from the proceedings.
Both teams were very loose, unlike the Patriots last season. Media Day is inherently trivial and silly, but most of the players, especially the lesser ones, seem to enjoy the moment.
More than any player, Larry Fitzgerald inspires awe from his teammates. Everyone had a crazy Fitzgerald practice catch story to tell, and we'll get those up on the site shortly. Apparently he pulled off a one-handed cross-hand grab with his fingertips that is hard to imagine.
Ryan Clark and Adrian Wilson got the nods for the players who can lay the most wood on the field. Early Doucet said he's cautious around Wilson even in practice, when he knows they can't hit at full speed.
I hesitate to draw any conclusions from these gab-fests, but nothing about the Steelers smack of overconfidence. They are ready to play, but their healthy respect for the Arizona offense seems genuine. They also have enough new or young players who have talked about getting their ring. It's a good mix of youth, talent, and experience.
Surprise funniest player: Steelers C Justin Hartwig. He'll be a star of the videos.
I've come to the conclusion that tight ends are the scariest looking dudes on a football team. Heath Miller comes to mind. The offensive linemen are bigger, but they are the best talkers and not in conventionally great shape. My favorite story about some of the ridiculous eating that linemen undertake was about Max Starks. It seems he's developed a way to sneak cheeseburgers into meetings by pressing them under his arms. Then when the coach isn't looking, he takes a bite and puts it back. Yummy.
There were a lot of comments from the male population at the stadium about the impressive female talent this year. I concur. Maria Menuonous was a personal favorite. I give a lot of credit to the beat writer who essentially was hitting on her after it was over.
Cardinals MLB Gerald Hayes complimented me on my sunglasses, which is the first time anyone has ever said anything complimentary about my appearance in my life. My wife, as usual, is to thank.
More than once, I saw a young defensive back tell Deion Sanders that he was their idol and ask for a picture. It's fun to see the pros acting like nervous kids.
The NFL Players have spoken: Madden '09 was a step backward.
I'm working on a column now that will try to be a little more coherent than this mess. Thanks for stopping by.
There is some thought that perhaps Edgerrin James won't get cut after all. He's been a nice story and all this post-season, but he's still a below average starting running back. Barring a 200-yard game in the Super Bowl, I don't think there is much chance he's back in 2009 at $5 million. A ring would bolster his Hall of Fame credentials, though
Ken Whisenhunt learned something about having a consistent message from Dick Lebeau. Expect me to talk about Dick Lebeau way too much this week as I join the Steelers players in trying to get this man into the Hall of Fame discussion next year.
It doesn’t take long to remember exactly why you arrived in Tampa this week. The minute I stepped off the plane last night, the Super Bowl welcome committee greeted me warmly, with brochures in hand. Super Bowl XLIII decals are on every elevator and hallway I’ve seen in the city. Bud Bowl and NFLPA ads are on the rest.
Spotting NFL Network's Rod Woodson at baggage claim seemed to be a good omen for the week. He looked conflicted wearing a Steelers shirt and a Falcons cap pulled low over his eyes, but couldn’t be nicer to the guy who asked for him to sign a “Football for Dummies” book.
Unfortunately, my bag never did arrive. It’s supposed to come this morning, which robs the rest of Tampa from seeing me in the same navy hoodie all week.
The media center is located right next to my hotel, so I'll be over there shortly to get the lay of the land. Be back in a few minutes first with some links from the morning.
SB Matchups by position: Special teams and coaches
Special Teams
Jeff Reed is an excellent field goal kicker, but punter Mitch Berger is one of the worst in the league and hurt Pittsburgh during the AFC Championship. (Although he can tackle!) Pittsburgh’s coverage teams aren’t bad, but their returns struggled during the regular season. Santonio Holmes has given them a big boost in the playoffs, though.
Neil Rackers is an up-and-down kicker, and he’s the highlight of Arizona’s special teams. Their coverage units didn’t excel all season. Like the rest of the Cardinals, they are playing better in the playoffs. J.J. Arrington and Steve Breaston are average on returns.
Where to start? James Harrison was a deserving Defensive MVP choice, but fellow outside linebacker Lamarr Woodley is now nearly as good a pass rusher. 12-year veteran James Farrior locks down the middle. Pittsburgh allowed the fewest yards-per-rush in football (3.3).
Like Pittsburgh, Arizona’s defense is built on creating pressure from the linebacker level. Karlos Dansby is a consistent playmaker that can also defend the pass. Chike Okeafor and Bert Berry can play standing up or with their hand down, although their very best days are behind them. Travis LaBoy is injury-prone and left the NFC Championship. This group has helped shut down Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Brian Westbrook in the playoffs.
Tackles Mike Gandy and Levi Brown protected Kurt Warner well all year, but the entire unit has improved their run blocking in the playoffs. Brown is a mauler that pushed Carolina and Philly around on the right side. This group communicated well in the first half to pick up Philly's blitzes. Ken Whisenhunt finally has the rugged unit he envisioned when he arrived in the desert.
Earlier this season, Pittsburgh’s offensive line looked like their fatal flaw. They improved week-by-week, and are no longer a liability. Left guard Chris Kemoeatu and C Justin Hartwig are run-blocking better. Left tackle Max Starks is still vulnerable to speed rushers, so keep an eye on him.
Hines Ward hurt his knee in the Conference Championship. With terrific, hands, toughness, and smarts, he is Ben Roethlisberger’s target when a play is absolutely needed. Ward’s status for the Super Bowl will be key because he draws double teams and the Steelers would prefer to keep rookie Limas Sweed on the bench. Santonio Holmes lacked maturity in his third season, but he’s a great playmaker who is peaking at the right time. Nate Washington is another deep threat with inconsistent hands.
Larry Fitzgerald is dominating like no receiver in NFL playoff history, already setting a record with 419 yards. He is the best in football at catching jump balls, but his improved route-running and ability to go over the middle make him complete. I'd put him and Andre Johnson as receivers 1 and 1A in the entire NFL. Anquan Boldin is usually exceptional after the catch, but is battling a hamstring injury. The Cardinals will need to get his mind right after a frustrating NFC Championship. Underrated second-year pro Steve Breaston topped 1,000 yards out of the slot. When fully healthy, this is the best wide receiver group in the league.
We may not have the best Super Bowl analysis, but we are determined to have some of the first! In lieu of a Skinny Posts morning, I'm working on some quick personnel writeups for NBCSports.com to see "Who has the edge" at various positions. I'll be posting these throughout the day, but here goes the quarterback and running back spots.
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Kurt Warner has thrown eight touchdowns and two interceptions during a dominant playoff run. Warner has struggled with turnovers in the past when under duress, but he has been well protected this season. His quick release and intelligence are blitz-killers, as Eagles coordinator Jim Johnson found out. He won’t be fazed by the moment.
On paper, Ben Roethlisberger’s up-and-down statistical season mirrors his career. But don’t forget that his career yards-per-attempt average is seventh in NFL history. He throws an awesome deep ball and sheds tacklers better than any quarterback alive. That gives him extra time to make plays out of the pocket, and while he takes a lot of sacks, he usually delivers when it counts.
Our pick: Roethlisberger (Barely. This was really tough)
"We didn't start this journey to get to Tampa," Mike Tomlin said while accepting the Lamar Hunt trophy for the AFC Championship.
"We got some business waiting on us there. We'll do like we always do. We'll get in the lab and go to work."
And with that, the long build-up to Super Bowl XLIII begins. The Whisenhunt Revenge Tour!
Ravens-Steelers III was a bloodbath, like you'd expect. The hits were vicious; the game dragging on like an ALCS Yankees/Red Sox game with both teams not giving an inch. Baltimore kept it close despite getting outplayed, but the difference at quarterback proved too great. The Ravens played Pittsburgh so tight in all three games, but there can be no doubt who the better team was. All the mojo in the world couldn't beat Pittsburgh's historic defense at home with a rookie quarterback.
This blog will get very Super Bowl-centric over the next week as I ready for my trip to Tampa. Thanks for stopping by.
Week 17 fantasy is often all about guessing who will rest their starters and how much. This season, with so much on the line, there really aren't that many situations to keep track of. I count four. Every other NFL team has long since been out of it or has something important to play for. Carolina's loss kept them in play. Same goes with Denver and Minnesota. The five teams who don't have anything to play for: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Arizona and the New York Giants. There is an outside chance Baltimore could be out of it. Here are my guesses about how they will treat Week 17.
1. Limas Sweed has been a big disappointment as a rookie. The physical Texas product was the first wide receiver off the board in some Mock Drafts last April, and wound up being one of ten wideouts to go in the second round. The pick was hailed as a steal, but he's struggled to get on the field as a pro with four catches. Tonight, with some chances, he made a weak effort to pick up a first down and let a punt hit him, causing a turnover. These sort of mental mistakes and soft play plagued him in the preseason. He's got a long way to go in his career, but it doesn't look good for dynasty leaguers.
2. Willie Parker isn't helped by the deteriorating Heinz Field. He's not a mudder, and Gary Russell threatens to steal all his short-yardage work. Parker did get a carry inside the five-yard line, but didn't go anywhere.
The Steelers passing game has been a huge disappointment all season. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't rank among the top-20 fantasy quarterbacks, Santonio Holmes isn't in the top-40 wideouts, and Heath Miller is outside the top-25 at tight end. Hines Ward, on track for his first 1,000-yard effort since 2004, is the only one thriving.
I could come up with a variety of shortcomings from each player, but it all comes back to the offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't have time to set up for deep passes to Holmes; Miller stays in to block too much when healthy. Roethlisberger threw 41 times the last two games, with great yardage and no touchdowns. The Steelers have turned into a dink-and-dunk team.
I have lost faith that they will turn it around. Their Thursday night matchup against the Bengals looks tasty, but Cincy's pass defense is the strength of its team. Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph make them average. I expect to see a lot of called running plays, just like Willie Parker wants. Willie may be a good sell high after that game because Pittsburgh finishes with New England, Dallas, Baltimore, and Tennessee. Roethlisberger and Holmes, usually drafted in the top-60 overall picks, should be on most fantasy benches during the fantasy playoffs.
Tony Kornheiser gets a lot wrong on these Monday Night games. The statement that galled me the most tonight was his statement that the Ravens defense isn't doing anything special, and that it's the Steelers offense that is to blame. While Pittsburgh has their share of problems, Baltimore's defense is back to being the best in the league.
I know they've only played the AFC North, but great defenses dominate inferior competition. That's what Baltimore has done in all three games.
I wrote in my MNF preview how impressed I was with Joe Flacco and how Willis McGahee has dominated the workload when healthy. Those trends have continued tonight. Baltimore is 20 minutes away from going 3-0 in the division.
Ben Roethlisberger's hand, which reportedly was swollen all week, is becoming a concern.
And of course the Steelers score 14 points in 15 seconds after I type up that last post. Will be fun watching to see how Joe Flacco responds now.
Between the column and the videos, every matchup is covered except two. Those two are below. I'll update the rankings in a while and then start pregaming for the debate.
Ravens @ Steelers
Baltimore is the most impressive defense in the NFL thus far. That could mean a long night for all Steelers. Since Rashard Mendenhall has failed to impress in practice, I'm not high on him proving RB2 value against Baltimore. Mewelde Moore will probably be very involved. ... Ben Roethlisberger is going to see a lot of blitzes and could get killed here. That will make it hard for Santonio Holmes to have time to get open deep.
The Browns are under more pressure than any team to win in Week 2. If they lose at home against Pittsburgh, they are already two games down in the division, with a trip to Pittsburgh to go. That's a rough start.
Vegas gave up on Cleveland, making them ridiculous seven point underdogs this week. I'm going with the home team, trying to build on a solid 9-7 start to the year. The video below has my fantasy picks for the game. Here's a hint: I'm not bailing on the big name offensive players in Cleveland and the Browns secondary is terrible!
The blog is going to remain quiet for the rest of the day as I travel to the wilds of New Jersey for my best friend's wedding. The speech is on my mind, especially since I'm used to people ignoring my presence with a microphone. But fear not: There's a fresh daily dose to devour (with an update on the Ryan Grant situation), Evan Silva's awesome IDP position battles, and far more new videos than anyone with a job has time for.
I'm going to post a few, including the Cowboys (with part of Tiffany's interview with Tony Romo and an intrusive T.O.), Steelers (with a surprise appearance by ... McLovin), and the Seahawks. The Colts and Redskins are also ready for viewing, with my optimistic look at Marvin Harrison. Have a great weekend everyone.
So Kevin Jones reversed course at the last minute and worked out in front of four NFL teams Saturday: Detroit, Miami, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. Cleveland reportedly asked for a tape of the proceedings. Now it appears Tampa is in the mix or at least Jones is interested in them. I touched on the topic in my minicamp notes some, but here is what we know about Jones.
Today's scouting reports from MLive.com about Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey confirm what shay bets they are in fantasy leagues. McDonald is the third receiver, Furrey the fourth. But if Calvin Johnson or Roy Williams get hurt, Furrey is likely to replace them in the starting lineup. With Mike Martz gone, the third receiver won't be worth drafting. So forget McDonald. And Furrey is only worth a look if an injury strikes.
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News from Adam Schefter that the Cowboys are eyeing Joe Horn. This makes no sense and smacks of Jerry Jones just looking for a big name. Horn isn't good enough to contribute in Atlanta. He's not close to the receiver Patrick Crayton is. This would be a mistake, and not just because the Cowboys are already fine at No. 2 receiver.
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Najeh Davenport is being shopped. I don't think the Steelers will find a taker, but it's just another guy who might get a job ahead of Shaun Alexander or Travis Henry.
New Marshawn Lynch developments, including a dancing pedestrian and Lynch's previous interactions with the police. Apparently Lynch has been tossed from a few local bars for ordering soda, then pouring ihis own liquor into the glass. Thrifty.
Regrets and apologies for the lack of content. I arrived in Dallas today, where myself and Rotoworld Grand Poobah Rick Cordella put the finishing touches on our first magazine this year. We'll be done by Thursday and head back to New York. It's looking good, but can't quite let up yet.
One of my toughest decisions this year was at tight end, where there is very little separating tight ends six-through-twelve or so. For our series of player battles, I'm picking out three that fell in the middle: Vernon Davis. vs. Jeremy Shockey vs. Heath Miller.
Pittsburgh up, with Matt G. making the pick. Matt took some heat for his comments about the Jonathan Stewart pick, although most of those comments came off looking worse than anything he wrote. At least people are passionate about the first annual Pancake Blocks Mock!
The facts everyone keys on:
- The Steelers gave up 47 sacks last year
- Their O-line is now sans Alan Faneca, a perennial pro bowler
One player I managed to overlook in the free agency recap column was my old buddy Mewelde Moore signing with the Steelers. Okay, he's not my buddy. But he did attend Tulane at the same time and has endured a criminally underused NFL career to date (4.9 yards-per-carry, 9.4 yards-per-reception).
Pittsburgh is a nice fit for Moore. He's better receiving the ball than both Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport and should get plenty of third-down work. Parker is probably never going to become a true every-down back. Comparing the signing bonuses, Davenport isn't necessarily a lock to make the team.
It was sad to hear that Myron Cope passed away today. I can't think of a non-player that is more beloved by a city than Cope is by Pittsburgh.
Cope is best known as the voice of the Steelers, but a lot of people forget he was one of the preeminant sportswriters of the 50's and 60's before going on the radio.
I can't fully do Ellis Hobbs justice in print, but we'll have the video later. The dude is a fireball of insanity. He had managed to get a hold of a local Boston affiliate's microphone, and punctuated every other sentence, no matter how mundane, by screaming, "ELLIS HOBBS, CHANNEL SEVEN NEWS" into the camera. A few highlights ...
On Lonnie Paxton: "I can only hope that I can feel what he feels someday. I live my life through him." (At that moment, he started a group hug)
On his record-setting field goal return: "I just pretended my mom was trying to get me ... Someday, I hope I can show to my grandkids, when they are wheeling me around in my wheelchair."
On fantasy football fans: "Leave me alone! I don't know what Tom's thinking! I don't know how his wrist is feeling! I'm not that kind of guy. I'm just a fish. I'm just a fish in a big pond. I'm just a pawn on the chessboard ... ELLIS HOBBS, CHANNEL 7 NEWS!"
Former Steeler Curtain All Pro Ernie Holmes passed away Thursday at the age of 59 in a car accident. It is a tragic loss for the Holmes and Steeler family and we send our condolences.
The fact that Holmes met his demise in a car accident must strike some fans as sadly fitting. Holmes was a great player, but he is perhaps best known for an incident that makes any T.O. drama look tame.
At a time when Holmes was broke and mentally unstable, he was on his way to the Steelers front offices to get some money. Most likely, he would have joined their traveling basketball team (imagine that). He couldn't get to the office in time, and on the way out of town became increasingly paranoid about the traffic around him.
The next few report sregarding Willie Parker's broken leg will be key. Broken fibulas can vary widely in recovery time. For some players, it's a simple break and they are fine in six-to-eight weeks. Considering Parker's huge workload this year, getting 80 fewer carries this season might not be the worst thing in the world for him long term.
Some breaks, especially if they include the ankle, are much trickier. As a Parker owner in a dynasty league that was planning to build my offseason by dealing him when his value was still high, I am hoping for the best.
I don't think the Steelers should be overly concerned about the injury. With poor passing game skills and a 4.1 average on the ground, Parker is pretty easy to replace. We've seen all season that running backs are the most easily replaceable position in football. Pittsburgh's sagging defense looks a lot more vulnerable.
I usually don't get carried away with weather forecasts, but watching Monday night's game in Pittsburgh has me spooked because of the field conditions.
It's clear that field will be a mess if it continues to rain Sunday night for the Bengals-Steelers game. And wouldn't you know, our friends at Weatherplus (who provide Season Pass and Fantasy Fix Live with forecasts) says there is a 70% chance of rain on Sunday.
Watching tonight's game, it's hard not to think about the last time a Miami-Pittsburgh game was delayed by weather. This was in 2004, when Hurricane Jeanne turned the Week 3 contest into a night game played in sloppy conditions. The Dolphins had Dave Wannstedt as their coach, A.J. Feeley as their quarterback, and Leonard Henry as their starting running back. Ricky Williams's excellent yoga adventure was just getting started.
That was Ben Roethlisberger's first NFL start, and the Super Bowl Champion Steelers often cited that weekend in retrospect as a pivotal time because of the bonding that took place while waiting out the storm in the team hotel. There wasn't a touchdown scored that night until the fourth quarter, when Ben Roethlisberger hit a diving Hines Ward in the corner of the end zone.
The way the field looks tonight, we could be looking at a similar lack of scoring.
One of the perks of this job is that I get to change my mind. I think I ranked Willie Parker and Willis McGahee too high initially this week. It’s more important to get it right, and after watching some more game footage and looking at the numbers, I could see benching either runner depending on your roster.
I’m not that concerned about Willie’s history against Baltimore. It’s history and too many factors change every season.
I’m concerned about the 2007 Baltimore rush defense, which has been excellent. Haloti Ngata is turning into a Pro Bowler and Trevor Pryce returns this week.
This will be also be a great test for McGahee, because his excellent season has come against terrible defenses. McGahee is good, but not great, and the offense around him is less likely than Parker’s to give him touchdown opportunities. McGahee is on my bench in my office league, but I have Westbrook and Kevin Jones in the lineup. I still wouldn’t bench either of these guys for talent that I don’t believe in. In the end, I still go with talent over the matchup once you cross a certain line.
For McGahee that line is going to be Thomas Jones. I’ll move him to 17th. For Willie, who I trust more, that line is Laurence Maroney. FWP will be moved down to tenth.
I was targeting this week for Santonio Holmes' breakout game, and Ward's injury should ultimately help him. The Cardinals will be focused on stopping the run and Holmes should dominate Ben Roethlisberger's attention now. Look for Nate Washington to get the start. If you needed a spot starter for one week, you could do a lot worse than Washington. He's a physical deep threat who made a ton of big plays last season.
Ward has only missed three career games, but they have all come in the last two years. Hamstring issues and a minor knee surgery late last season suggest that Ward's physical style may be affecting his play. Ward had 108 yards and a score through three weeks.
As I suspected, a lot of the "minor" injuries endured Sunday by skill players are going to have uncertain recovery timelines.
So far, Brian Westbrook, Jake Delhomme, Brandon Jackson, Deshawn Wynn, Calvin Johnson, Carnell Williams, and Hines Ward have all received notice that their injuries won't require surgery.
Westbrook doesn't have any broken ribs, and Ward appears to have avoided a serious injury. Delhomme and Johnson will probably be among a large group of players whose status won't be decided until late in the week. It's annoying, but there is a bright side. My boss Rick says injuries are good for traffic.
The Steelers misused Heath Miller last season. Or they didn't use him enough. With Bruce Arians taking over the offense, the team has spoken in the offseason about getting Miller more involved on passing downs.
His 38-yard catch down the seam of the Philly defense to the one-yard line showed off his Todd Heap-like skills. He has strength, hands, and enough speed. Perhaps an even better sign was that Miller was targeted on the next play in the end zone. He was often on the sideline in similar situations last year. Miller is one of our favorite post-hype sleepers this year, and he has a good chance to put up TE1 numbers.
The Steelers have talked in the offseason about getting Willie Parker more involved in the passing game, and that showed up in tonight's game. He has two catches, including a screen, early in the game. Also a good sign for FWP: He got the ball on the goal-line. Then he fumbled.
Parker fumbled seven times last season, so it's a problem he needs to avoid or the Steelers could consider going elsewhere near the stripe down the line. The Steelers don't have a logical vulture on the roster other than rookie Gary Russell, so Willie's job should be safe for now.
Busy day. I spent the afternoon on draft guide cheat sheet adjustments so everything will look just right on draft day. Let me know what you thought about the live show and what you'd like to see next time.
I'll be popping in this weekend, but not sure what sort of blogging there will be. I will be watching Sunday Night Football, and here's a look at what to look for from a fantasy perspective in that. At the bottom of the post is a fancy-looking SNF schedule widget you can grab for your site, if you are into that sort of thing. Nifty.
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
* Donovan McNabb looked like his old self last week. Watch to see what his mobility looks like, and if his accuracy can remain on point.
* Will Tony Hunt continue to be the goal-line back in Philly and is he ahead of Correll Buckhalter on the depth chart?
* Pittsburgh's offensive line has a lot of moving parts. I want to see them play better for a first-team Steelers offense that has had their share of struggles in the preseason.
* Kevan Barlow is going to get cut by the Steelers. I want to scout Gary Russell and Carey Davis, the two young backs who look likely to make the team. Could be keeper league sleepers for the future.
Good luck with all your drafts and thanks for stopping by.
Most training camp injuries are long forgotten by October. I suspect that will be the case with the injuries to Willie Parker and Thomas Jones.
Parker is healthy enough to play the final three preseason games for Pittsburgh. Missing a few weeks of practice in August certainly doesn't affect his projection. We did move Joseph Addai ahead of Parker recently for the fifth spot on our draft board, but that was only because Addai has such little downside.
There are so daily injuries training camp, and most of them only last a few days. We attempt to sift through the noise in our player news by only highlighting major players or major injuries, but the amount of information is still overwhelming. Here's my quick take on what injuries matter thus far during camp, and which ones don't.
LaMont Jordan (back) - Becoming an issue, but not a big one yet. He's about a week away from getting a downgrade.
Clinton Portis (knee) - Just don't know at this point, but it's hard to imagine him starting the year getting 20 carries a game. He hasn't eased any concerns.
Vernand Morency (knee) - A serious problem. Morency is going to struggle to be ready for Week 1, and a committee seems inevitable.
I will have to remind myself (and you) not to believe what you see over the next month of preseason. The game conditions are so different in every way, that performance (good and bad) just can't be trusted. The only time preseason matters is for position battle purposes.
Watching tonight's Steelers-Saints game, it wasn't hard to see one position battle on the Steelers taking shape. Cedrick Wilson backed off a mouth training camp with numerous big plays, including a 55-yard catch from Ben Roethlisberger in the game's first drive. His primary competition for the third receiver role, Nate Washington, dropped two passes.
Washington is a fabulous athlete has a lot more upside for fantasy purposes, but Wilson is off to a good start if he wants to hold him off.
Oh, and Drew Brees went 1-for-6, so don't draft him under any circumstances.
We're now posting two-fers of the Top 50 Position battles ...
# 18. Titans number two wideout: Roydell Williams vs. Courtney Roby vs. Justin Gage
We’re going to assume that David Givens misses the start of the season, if not the whole thing. We’re also going to assume Brandon Jones takes one of the starting jobs. Williams is reportedly the slight favorite going into training camp, but he’s been inconsistent to invisible throughout his career. The same can be said for Roby.
Only owners in deep leaguers are going to want to draft the winner of this battle.
Its not quite pitchers and catchers reporting, but the Steelers' veterans reporting Monday should get all you NFL newshounds excited. Most teams don't practice until this weekend, but we'll be knee deep in a mountain of daily updates before long.
I previewed the Steelers last week, with Ben Roethlisberger's healthy offseason the best sign for Pittsburgh's improvement. Ben might actually be underrated at this point. He has the highest yards-per-attempt (minimum 1,000) for any quarterback since Sid Luckman. I think the Steelers have a veteran team that compete for a title right now. Tell me if I'm crazy.
At Rotoworld, the start of camp means we'll have more people working the news, more columns (including camp Daily Doses), more Fantasy Fix shows, and more draft guide updates.
My plan today is to keep on top of the news, work on a column for tomorrow, and keep cranking out the position battles so that we're done by Sunday at the latest.
Been plowing through submissions for our newswriter job all afternoon - thanks to everyone who worked on samples. Let's get back to the battles countdown before signing off the blog for the day.
# 47. Steelers third receiver: Cedrick Wilson vs. Nate Washington
When Ben Roethlisberger wasn't wildly throwing to the opposition, he did a decent job wildly throwing to his teammates last year. Pittsburgh was the only NFL team that had four receivers over 500 yards in 2006. With Santonio Holmes emerging, a position that was a weakness only two years ago now looks like a strength.
The numbers indicate that the battle between Nate Washington and Cedric Wilson isn't as irrelevent as it sounds. Washington, in his first real season of action, exploded for 624 yards and four touchdowns. That was good enough to finish as RB48. Wilson has been serviceable since coming over from San Francisco, but he's always been miscast in Pittsburgh as a seam buster. After four straight seasons hovering around 500 yards, Wilson has plateaued. He's not going to help you in fantasy leagues.
That's why fantasy leaguers and Ben Roethlisberger owners should be rooting for Washington, an undrafted player out of Tiffin University. Washington's vertical game stats are eye opening. Out of 35 catches, 11 were for more than 20 yards, and four were for 45+. The Steelers love going deep and Washington could be their best option.
I wouldn't draft Washington in most leagues, but he could be a fantasy starter if Holmes or Ward ever get hurt. At worst, he's a solid injury fill-in if he can beat out Wilson. Perhaps my favorite thing about him is his inexperience. He stepped up huge for a second-year player out of a tiny school. His ascent might just be starting.
