Four matchup previews with Tiffany below, including Raiders/Chargers.
The Sunday Night Preview is after the jump. I know there will be a lot of questions about Westbrook. I doubt he'll play, but you never know. I would only wait for him if you have a capable option (Correll Buckhalter) to replace him in the late games.
I heard the anguished cry from across the room: The office Eagles fan was moaning. Football season had officially begun! Kevin Curtis is probably out to November. So what do fantasy owners do?
First of all, Anquan Boldin is not going anywhere. The Eagles will remain a pass-first team, and they will have to get increased production from Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, and DeSean Jackson. Hank Baskett will also get some targets. It's been a terrible camp for Brown, but someone has to catch passes here. I moved him up the WR rankings a few spots, and Jackson now looks draftable in deeper leagues. Smith gets a small bump too. He can be consistent if he stays healthy for once.
As for Curtis, I wouldn't drop him if you already had your draft. At best, he'll play for half the season though and his ceiling is somewhat limited. The increased chance for further injury makes him a late-round gamble. His new projections don't look good, but I still rate him as a 14th-round flier. A guy to stash.
It's been a crazy day for draft guide updates, but let's look at my other headlines to know from preseason Week 2.
1. After another nice preseason effort, Eddie Royal looks to be keeping that starting job for good. And it was interesting to see Andre Hall replace Selvin Young twice in the red zone. Vulture, anyone?
2. Rams lost two backup offensive linemen for the season. The starters were miserable protecting Marc Bulger again this week. I won't overreact to preseason efforts, but another game like this will be cause for conern.
3. Reggie Brown couldn't stay healthy for another game. He's at risk of losing some targets to DeSean Jackson, who continues to play well.
4. Kenton Keith was the fifth-string running back in Indy. He looks like a goner. Darius Walker didn't get a carry in Houston. I'm guessing the Texans Week 1 roster will include Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor and either Ahman Green or Marcel Shipp.
Tiffany doesn't dig Donovan McNabb this year, but I do. And is there really a difference between Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis? Also, L.J. Smith has fallen so far, he doesn't make the show. But I see him draftable in the final rounds as a solid TE2.
Eagles fans finally have something fresh to worry about. Donvan McNabb was shut down for the rest of OTAs Tuesday with shoulder tendinitis. This wouldn't be a story with most players, but McNabb is past getting the benefit of the doubt when it comes to injuries. Cue insane talk radio callers!
My head knows that it's not a big deal; Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are among the quarterbacks also on pitch counts. The difference is they rarely sit out for weeks at a time and they play 16 games every season.
The Jake Plummer saga in Tampa is done. Basically, the Bucs traded a late seventh-round pick for $3.5 million. That's a deal every owner in the league would welcome. Chris Simms also doesn't sound long for Tampa, taking shots at his head coach in the Tampa papers.
Since I feel horribly guilty when making it a normal work day without posting something here ... here is a link and a video that took up my morning hours. (We'll get to the afternoon another time).
I will be following up on the Mock Draft results starting tomorrow, along with some thoughts on the Michael Pittman and Musa Smith signings.
The video includes my picks for five emerging offenses this year. I love Houston and Jacksonville to step it up a notch in the passing game. Denver and Philadelphia are two traditional offensive powers that struggled in the red zone last year despite plenty of yardage. One thing these teams have in common: quarterbacks I believe in.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the latest round of Ocho Cinco blather was Adam Schefter's note that Cincy has already received an offer of two first-day picks for Johnson. (Is that the old first day - three rounds - or the new first day of two rounds? I'm guesing the former).
If someone is offering that much before the draft, the price should go up on draft day. And that means the Bengals would have to consider the offer, even though I think he'll stay put. So is this mystery team? Here are my five best guesses based on ammunition (draft picks) and need.
The longer this draft gets, the longer the writeups for the picks get. That's good because I'm struggling to keep it interesting here during magazine season. Andy G. has the honors for the Eagles. I heartily endorse the pick.
I've spent some serious time thinking about who to take in this situation and the more I thought about it the more i've become convinced that the Eagles will be moving up in this draft. The current list of available players is unacceptable for the Eagles. The most glaring needs that necessitate a 1st round pick are OT, WR and S. All of the top OT's are off the board and I don't want to reach for Gosder Cherilus.
I wrote the first draft of my Donovan McNabb outlook today. After looking at all my notes and numbers, I have to say there is a lot to be encouraged about.
He rushed for 166 rushing yards starting in Week 10, the third best among quarterbacks in the league.
While he didn't hit his 2006 peak at any point, nearly every passing number except touchdowns were towards the top of his career norms. He returned from ACL surgery with improved accuracy (rare) and made fewer mistakes (career best interception %, fourth best in the league).
If Sam Farmer wasn't such a well respected name in the journalism, this story about Favre returning would be easier to ignore. Okay, it still seems a little far-fetched. But the editors at NBC asked me to come up with five teams who would be interested in Favre if he returned. So what if it's all in fun and none of it is particularly likely to happen. It's April!
Asante Samuel gambles and he usually wins. That's his style on the field, and that was his style in negotiations with the Patriots last summer, only ending his holdout in exchange for a promise that New England would not use the franchise tag on him again.
The gamble paid off Friday, when the Eagles awarded him a six-year, $54 million contract, with $6 million in incentives. As a Patriots fan, I have watched Samuel's ups and downs. His play was occasionally brilliant but highly inconsistent for his first three and a half seasons. He was often hurt. Then he went on a well-timed (helloo contract) interception binge in the second half of 2006.
Speaking on NFL Network, Brian Westbrook formally apologized to fantasy footballers for laying down short of the end zone at the end of Philly's Week 15 win over Dallas. Of course, he said he would do it again. But it's nice to know he's thinking about us.
The rankings are up, the Fix is taped, and we're back at Pancake Blocks after a couple holiday half-days. Week 17 ahoy!
I am going to try to avoid looking at next year this week. We have all offseason to review '07 and look ahead to '08, and there are still plenty of fantasy championships this week, whether it's a good idea or not. Let's start with some quickie lists of guys likely to see a spike in value this week.
"It's a team sport," Lewis said, on the way out of the stadium. "Trying to be political. Trying to always say the right thing. Sooner or later, you get tired of making excuses. This is the NFL. You're going to give up points. It happens. But you have to ask: Is it the defensive side?"
Baltimore's offense actually racked up 418 total yards Sunday against Cleveland, they just couldn't capitalize in the red zone. But this outburst is a sign of a team that is used to playing the bully, and has been pushed around too often this year - on both sides of the ball.
If Reggie Brown can't beat press coverage by Sam Madison, well, he's just not a good NFL wide receiver right now. Brown had a similarly slow stretch in the middle of last season, and doesn't look consistent enough at this stage of his career to live up to his pre-season billing. (And yes, I'm trying to throw a reverse jinx on Brown because I stupidly played him over Patrick Crayton in one league).
The Giants have figured out how to fix their leaky secondary: Rush the passer like crazy. Donovan McNabb had his worst half of the season (which is saying something), with only 44 yards on 13 attempts against a shaky defensive backfield. The offensive line is a big problem, but McNabb needs a big half here going into a bye week for his owners to be confident that the Detroit game wasn't a fluke.
Brian Westbrook didn't practice at all this week. For most players, that would mean he's almost certainly out for Sunday night. But Westbrook isn't like most players. The Eagles are happy to play it as cautiously as possible with Westbrook, and the Philadelphia Inquirer would be surprised if Westbrook sat out, especially right before a bye week.
As a Westbrook owner, I'm not sure I could wait until SNF to find out his status unless I owned Correll Buckhalter or someone else in the night games. Thankfully, I have Kenny Watson in the same league as Westbrook, so I will wait it out and expect to use Westbrook. Ideally, we will get more news by Sunday morning.
I looked through our database and did find a week last year (Week 5) when Westbrook sat out practice all week, then started the game. So there is some precedent. He put up 86 total yards and a score that week against the Cowboys. Westbrook is worth waiting for if at all possible because 75% of him is better than 100% of most options.
I agree with most of what Bill Barnwell writes in his matchups column this week, including his impressive faith in Lee Evans.
One line made me pause, however:
The wideout best-positioned to benefit from that is actually Kevin Curtis, the best short-yardage receiver the Eagles have. Expect Curtis to operate over the middle and put up, oh, half the yardage he did last week while still being effective. Remember how I said Evans was one of the great buy low, sell high opportunities in history? Curtis will join him after this week.
As I suspected, a lot of the "minor" injuries endured Sunday by skill players are going to have uncertain recovery timelines.
So far, Brian Westbrook, Jake Delhomme, Brandon Jackson, Deshawn Wynn, Calvin Johnson, Carnell Williams, and Hines Ward have all received notice that their injuries won't require surgery.
Westbrook doesn't have any broken ribs, and Ward appears to have avoided a serious injury. Delhomme and Johnson will probably be among a large group of players whose status won't be decided until late in the week. It's annoying, but there is a bright side. My boss Rick says injuries are good for traffic.
LaMont Jordan isn't the only player to keep an eye on Friday and Sunday morning. Here's some of the future stars to watch for in Evan Silva's Last Minute Decisions column.
James Jones, Packers - Left practice with a hamstring pull, although Packers coach Mike McCarthy sounded optimistic that he could receover.
Greg Jennings, Packers - Hopes to practice Friday.
Brian Westbrook, Eagles - Would love to see him back on Friday.
Zach Thomas, Dolphins - History of concussion problems is a big concern.
Darrell Jackson, 49ers - Make sure he practices Friday.
Plaxico Burress, Giants - Expected to start
Ron Dayne, Texans - His absence would be great news for Ahman Green owners.
Donovan McNabb looks a lot worse Monday night than he did in the season opener against the Packers. The recevers aren't always open, but Donovan McNabb has missed many by a wide margin. I am reminded of Carson Palmer's recovery from ACL surgery last year.
Palmer's biggest problem wasn't getting back on the field and taking a hit. It was his accuracy. His mechanics had to be relearned post-surgery and Palmer missed throws he normally made. His completion percentage dropped 5%.
Donovan McNabb has never been a particularly accurate West Coast quarterback. He's only topped 60% in a season once in his career. I think the Eagles offense will find their way, but it's going to be tough if McNabb loses 5% like Palmer.
It's a quiet news day, like most Tuesdays. So let's stay on the Waiver theme and look at some players I couldn't jam into the column today. James asked about Tony Hunt of the Eagles.
Hunt is a player I love in dynasty leagues. For 2007, his redraft value may be limited unless Brian Westbrook gets hurt. With Correll Buckhalter more likely to get regular work, Hunt's only value would come in a touchdown only league. Hunt may vulture 4-6 scores, and that's worth enough for him to make the roster. Other than that, you can probably do better for a reserve pick.
The Eagles offense isn't playing particularly well, but Donovan McNabb owners should still feel good about what the see. Al Michaels said it - you can't really tell that McNabb is even coming off surgery. He's rolling out well and doesn't appear to be feeling the pass rush.
Daunte Culpepper is still struggling with footwork, looking awkward occasionally on the field, two years after his surgeries. McNabb's recovery time is going much faster.
Busy day. I spent the afternoon on draft guide cheat sheet adjustments so everything will look just right on draft day. Let me know what you thought about the live show and what you'd like to see next time.
I'll be popping in this weekend, but not sure what sort of blogging there will be. I will be watching Sunday Night Football, and here's a look at what to look for from a fantasy perspective in that. At the bottom of the post is a fancy-looking SNF schedule widget you can grab for your site, if you are into that sort of thing. Nifty.
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
* Donovan McNabb looked like his old self last week. Watch to see what his mobility looks like, and if his accuracy can remain on point.
* Will Tony Hunt continue to be the goal-line back in Philly and is he ahead of Correll Buckhalter on the depth chart?
* Pittsburgh's offensive line has a lot of moving parts. I want to see them play better for a first-team Steelers offense that has had their share of struggles in the preseason.
* Kevan Barlow is going to get cut by the Steelers. I want to scout Gary Russell and Carey Davis, the two young backs who look likely to make the team. Could be keeper league sleepers for the future.
Good luck with all your drafts and thanks for stopping by.
After the wall-to-wall coverage surrounding Carson Palmer's ACL recovery last year, it's a little surprising that Donovan McNabb's rehab has remained beneath the headlines.
But McNabb's debut performance this Friday against the Panthers is a huge moment for McNabb. And frankly, for fantasy leaguers.
If this ends up as as bad as it sounds, L.J. Smith may not be draftable in fantasy leagues this year.
* Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes are neck and neck for the Oakland starting job. Rhodes will miss the first four games of the season, but we're almost certainly looking at a committee after that.
* If I've learned one thing in the last month, it's that Keary Colbert will never die. Two Carolina newspapers report today that he's passing Drew Carter. Sure, it's Dwayne Jarrett's job eventually. But Colbert's re-emergence makes the whole trio worth avoiding.
* I usually dismiss strength-of-schedule as boderline irrelevent, but FootballOutsiders has created a highly useful article about it.
* Jason Wood asks a good question: Why is Steve Smith the consensus #1 WR? (I think the top-six are virtually interchangeable and Smith's rise is largely due to our desire for consensus.)
# 42. Eagles third receiver: Hank Baskett vs. Jason Avant vs. Greg Lewis
This is a “Just in case” battle. The Eagles spread the ball around way too much, especially to the running backs and tight ends, for the third receiver to have stand-alone value. But if Kevin Curtis or Reggie Brown get hurt, you are going to want to know who to pick up.
Lewis is probably the odd man out here. He’s had his chances and didn’t do much with them. Baskett and Avant is a fair fight between two second-year players. Baskett managed 464 yards as an undrafted rookie (who was traded in training camp), although the numbers are skewed somewhat by two touchdowns over 85 yards. We don’t have to question his speed at least.
There is dumb, and there is aggressively dumb. This Philadelphia Inquirer article proposing that a Donovan McNabb-for-Lance Briggs trade is possible before the season is the latter.
The line that got me was, "The question most Eagles fans are asking right now is: Why would the Bears make that deal?"
Huh? Briggs is a good system linebacker with one year on his deal. McNabb is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Any GM would make that trade, and they would throw in a first-day draft pick with Briggs to get it done.
Trading McNabb before the season would also be giving up on 2007 before it started. It couldn't possibly be a consideration. McNabb can seem a little sensitive to the criticism sent his way, but has reason to be paranoid.
The Colts are breaking in two starting cornerbacks, but I don't think it should be a problem. Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson are experienced and the system in Indianapolis is the star. I'd be a lot more concerned with their lack of run-stopping ability in the front seven.
On a day when Randy Moss was supposed to dominate the headlines, Kevin Curtis sprinted through the backdoor and stole the show.
Frankly, it was about time. Curtis won the Plaxico Burress Memorial Award for taking a ridiculous amount of free agent visits while firing his agent during the process. Curtis may be the fastest white guy in the NFL, but he won't be rushed into a decision.
In the end, he made a great choice. Sure, Curtis doesn't have the chance to be a "number one" receiver like in Tennessee or Minnesota. But he would have be an ill fit for that role anyhow. Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb will know just how to maximize Curtis' speed in a receiver-friendly offense.
The Eagles have extended A.J. Feeley's contract through 2010. Jeff Garcia will certainly enter free agency now, and probably won't be excited about the interest he gets from around the league. Tampa and Denver look like possibilities.
Of all the useless information culled from media day, this one is my favorite. Thomas Jones watches Anchorman three-to-four times a day. I'm guessing he's not married.
