April 27, 2008
The Browns continue to trade away picks, moving up twice to grab inside linebacker Beau Bell (nice IDP prospect), then send next year's third-round pick for Martin Rucker. Odd pick. Rucker is a no block, all catch tight end with a high ceiling. Does that indicate anything about how the Browns see Kellen Winslow's future?
Tashard Choice gives Dallas options at running back if Marion Barber ever leaves. He is a complete back I was watching closely in this draft. This isn't a great landing spot for him in the short-term for fantasy leagues, as he'll be their third back.
I don't know enough about Kevin Smith to say if he'll succeed or not. 450 carries last year is a concern. But getting drafted by Detroit makes him a serious fantasy sleeper because he'll have a chance to start sooner than later.
Jamaal Charles is a very interesting pick by Kansas City. While he's more of a third-down threat, they could have flexibility to dump Larry Johnson next year if he doesn't bounce back quickly. He adds some explosiveness to the backfield that LJ and Kolby Smith lacks.
Continue reading "Third-round thoughts" »
Wow this is going fast today. I got up to Stamford, CT. at work in time to see the first picks off the board. We'll be doing analysis on all skill position picks on the news page. I will stop by with some thoughts after each round.
April 26, 2008
3:05: At least the Dolphins didn't take all ten minutes. Jake Long was welcomed to the AFC East with a chorus of boos. The seventh pick can expect the same. I'll keep updating this blog entry for a while rather than posting new entries each time. So refresh often! And check out our news page, where we'll have all the immediate reaction and analysis to each pick.
3:11: I hope the Rams took Chris Long because they think he's a better player than Glenn Dorsey. Not just because he fits their roster better.
Continue reading "NFL Draft Liveblog" »
Maybe the top four will really fall how ESPN is reporting (Long, Long, Ryan, McFadden), but I'd be wary of assuming anything today. Teams may still be sending out smokescreens and I expect a lot of surprises. I don't buy that Glenn Dorsey will fall to five, but we'll see.
April 25, 2008
Almost there. Let's take a look at a few of the latest developments at the top of the draft.
I was stunned to hear that Jammal Brown was being offered by the Saints in a bid to move up to take Glenn Dorsey. Dorsey looks like a stud, but trading a third-year starting left tackle who has been an All Pro to move up eight spots? Brown is coming off a down year, and the Saints may not love his attitude. Honestly, this makes me re-evaluate Brown's value. They know more than we do. With that said, it seems like a good deal for the Rams. But they probably won't have the stones to take it.
Continue reading "Draft Eve" »
April 21, 2008
Tom Curran was up here at work today for a Mock Draft video we are taping, so I asked him about his report regarding Jake Long. Treating draft news skeptically this week is always a good idea, but that doesn't mean the report should be dismissed. The indications are strong and varied Miami is getting close. That doesn't mean they are close necessarily, but they are making sure that information is out there.
PFT's Mike Florio thinks it's all a smokescreen to get another player to jump, probably Vernon Gholston. We'll find out the truth this week, but don't assume it will be before Saturday. And then a week from now, we'll forget all about this. The beauty of Draft week.
And I've sent an email to the Jaguars pick owner, and have a backup in place if we need it.
April 07, 2008
NFL Network's Mike Mayock unveiled his new Mock Draft Friday, with a few surprises. I may discuss those later, but I wanted to mention something Mayock and two NFL Network analysts said Friday: That the Jets were hoping Matt Ryan fell to them at six.
It's surprising how little this has been said because the Jets do need a quarterback. There were high hopes about Kellen Clemens coming out of college, but his ugly first stretch as a starter raises serious questions. NFLN analyst Mike Lombardi doesn't believe Clemens can throw to the outside, especially in the Meadowlands. If the Jets brass truly believes they are safe through 2009 regardless, as their owner said, then Ryan makes a lot of sense if both rush linebackers are off the board.
March 10, 2008
Mock Drafts aren't usually built on original thought. They primarily look at other Mock Drafts, switch some names, teams, and needs around, and go from there. Even draftniks who spend the college season following the players tend to have similar rankings because they read each other, but don't know what NFL scouts are seeing or saying.
I've been sold on Mike Mayock's mock drafts since 2005, when he had Aaron Rodgers falling all the way to number 25 to the Packers. It's not just that he nailed a pick absolutely no one saw coming, it's that he had the confidence and research to make his own decision instead of following the masses. His pipeline to NFL teams probably doesn't hurt. He revealed his first top-ten Mock picks last week and there were a few stunners that should be taken seriously. Let's take a look ...
Continue reading "Mayock's Top Ten" »
February 20, 2008
We're going to be blogging about the Combine the next few days, and the cornerback group might be the most interesting position to watch.
There is no clear cut leader to be the first pick drafted. A lot of the slavish Mock Drafts seem to think Mike Jenkins and Aquib Talib are possible top-ten picks.. Mike Mayock, who has been all over Leodis McKelvin of Troy, now has moved Brandon Flowers of Virginia Tech to the top of his cornerback board after watching more tape.
Continue reading "No consensus at cornerback" »
February 13, 2008
There is a lot disagreement about the the order of the top running back prospects this season, but there is a consensus that we should see four backs taken in the first round: Darren McFadden, Reshard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones.
Watching Mike Mayock's top-five backs, it's clear there is a steep drop-off after the top four, probably into the third round. Running backs often emerge from deep in the draft, but the players will be prospects or third-down back types. If you are in a dynasty league draft, this tier drop makes the top of the first round even more valuable this year.
Mike Mayock isn't a big fan of Darren McFadden, and his ranking of McFadden outside his top 20 prospects created quite a stir around the blogosphere.
Mayock detailed the reasons why on Tuesday while ranking his top-five running backs. McFadden has a great burst and bounce getting to the outside. Mayock worries about McFadden because of his small lower body, and that his "legs go dead" when he's hit. He's not ready to get yards-after-contact in the NFL.
Continue reading "McFadden not likely to fall far" »
February 12, 2008
Our favorite Draft guru, NFL Network's Mike Mayock, broke out his top-10 overall picks for the first time on Monday.
I will talk about his top ten shortly and his comparisons of Matt Ryan to Ben Roethlisberger, but the most interesting part of his top ten was the name that wasn't there - Darren McFadden.
"I just watched three tapes and I wasn't as impressed as I expected to be," Mayock said. "Great burst, great acceleration, but I wouldn't touch him in the top 20 picks."
Continue reading "Mayock doesn't see McFadden in top-20" »
April 28, 2007
Just finished a video that will be up tonight.
A few surprises in the second round...
The Eagles paid a high price to get a quarterback behind Donovan McNabb. Perhaps they aren't confident he'll stay healthy.
I didn't like the Ted Ginn pick, but it's not as bad after seeing the Dolphins take John Beck in the second round. They had their young quarterback of the future in mind and took him.
Drew Stanton may have the most upside of the second-round quarterbacks. He could be starting under Mike Martz by the end of the year in Detroit.
Aaron Gleeman had a good point: It's amazing that the Vikings weren't afraid to take a South Carolina receiver. But I like the Sidney Rice pick - he has great hands.
The Jets don't have another pick until round seven after trading up to take David Harris. I love the pick, but it's a surprising that a team with so many defensive needs felt comfortable taking only two players in the first six rounds.
The Falcons got a steal in Chris Houston. He should start over Jimmy Williams right away and give Atlanta a promising secondary.
I thought the Bengals might draft a running back, but taking a second-round pick as Rudi Johnson insurance says a lot. Kenny Irons is a similar player and could replace Johnson in 2008. Chris Perry's future is in doubt.
Chris Henry was the ultimate workout wonder and made it all the way up to a second-round pick for the Titans. Lendale White owners can't be happy that the Titans don't have confidence in him. Henry is a similar player - a bruiser. That said, at least they didn't trade for Michael Turner. I'm guessing Turner ends up in Green Bay.
Piecing together reports, it sounds like the Browns were offering every team in the second half of the first round a deal to move up for Brady Quinn. But not the monster offer that the Browns ended up sending to Dallas.
At some point, the Ravens got on the horn with Dallas and was close to completing a deal to get Quinn. The Ravens reportedly were even on the phone with Quinn. The Browns, hearing this, clearly upped their ante and sent next year's first round pick. Done deal, and the Ravens are still stuck with Steve McNair and Kyle Boller.
The Ravens then were waiting for the No. 29 pick to come up. NFL Network's Adam Shefter says they were locked in on T Joe Staley. At least until San Francisco swooped in, trading a fourth-rounder AND next year's first-round pick to the Patriots for the 28th pick (which is an absolute steal by the Patriots).
The Ravens took Ben Grubbs, a safe road-grader who will upgrade their rush defense. But it was a consolation prize during a disappointing day.
Dwayne Bowe has a chance to start right away at wide receiver for the Chiefs. He adds a necessary element of physical play to a small unit. Samie Parker's time in Kansas City is probably ending after one more year and Eddie Kennison is near the end of the line.
Texas S Michael Griffin will be starting at safety for the Titans. Whether it's on the strong side or not will change the complexion of IDP drafts. Chris Hope was a stud last season while he had to clean up the mess of the Tennessee corners not named Pacman. Whoever starts at strong safety this year should be a high pick.
And the fact that the Titans didn't take a receiver makes it very likely that Mike Williams is on the way to Tennessee.
If Tennessee really has deals pending for Michael Turner and Mike Williams, that makes running back and wide receiver lesser position of needs.
They could use a quality safety like Reggie Nelson or a defensive tackle like Alan Branch. Wide receiver is still a huge position of need whether Tennessee gets Williams or not. Robert Meachem and Dwaye Bowe are still out there.
My guess is that the Browns will move back into the first round to draft him or Kansas City will take him at pick 23.
Justin Harrell was a big surprise to me going to Green Bay. It's a small vote of confidence for Greg Jennings to pass on Robert Meachem. They also need a running back unless they can score Michael Turner.
The Jets reportedly wanted to move into the first round all day to draft a cornerback. They waited until the fourteenth pick to nab Pittsburgh corner Darrelle Revis.
The pricetage was basically a second-round pick.
Revis reminds of a player who grew up in Pittsburgh and was coached by Eric Mangini - Ty Law. He's physical, is a sure tackler, and can play in a versatile defense. I like the move. He was the top cornerback on the board and he plays a huge position of need for the Jets.
At least in terms of fantasy value...
1. Chester Taylor, Adrian Peterson (will split carries)
2. Mike Furrey, Roy Williams
3. Anthony Thomas
4. Marty Booker, Derek Hagan
Tarvaris Jackson
Charlie Frye
Derek Anderson
Jamal Lewis
Jon Kitna
Edgerrin James
Trent Green
Cleo Lemon
Was the Dolphins passing on Brady Quinn. Give credit to NFL Network for saying it was at least possible over the last 24 hours.
I'm not a huge Quinn fan, but Ginn has warts as well. He's undersized and still slightly hurt. The Dolphins needed a franchise quarterback, whether they get Trent Green or not. The Browns, Vikings, and Dolphins made strong statements by passing on Quinn. The talent evaluators just didn't love him.
I wonder if the Texans wish they didn't acquire Matt Schaub. And if the Panthers wish they didn't sign David Carr.
Jon Gruden is saying that the Bucs aren't trading Gaines Adams. Now that's a fast press conference. Look for Calvin Johnson and Adams to stay right where they are unless the Falcons do something crazy when they get on the clock.
“Monte’s (Kiffin) jumping through the ceiling,” Gruden said. “He said we haven’t drafted a defensive player No. 1 since 1976.”
Unless the Cardinals surprise everyone, there won't be a trade in the top-five picks. Again. It's just too costly when you consider the contracts and picks involved. All that rumor an innuendo from the last month was hot air.
The Rotoworld news page will act like a blog today. For the fifth straight year, we'll have pick-by-pick analysis of every first day pick. Evan Silva and I will break down how each rookie fits in his new system and affects his new teammates. Refresh often.
I will check in here on the blog throughout the day with big picture thoughts. I'm up at NBC today, so we'll be shooting a video after the first round that will be posted tonight. Then I can start rewriting and re-projecting all the magazine outlooks that are about to look outdated. Should be a blast today, one that I realize how lucky I am to have this job. Stick around.
It looks like Jamarcus Russell to the Raiders, Calvin Johnson to the Browns, and now ESPN and NFL Network say that the Browns will draft Joe Thomas.
That means Brady Quinn is going to fall, probably all the way to Miami at number nine. My first thought. What does it say about Quinn when Charlie Weis' buddy Romeo Crennel passes on him with a major hole at quarterback?
I think it means the Browns are committed to improving their offensive line first. And that Joe Thomas is going to help the team more than a rookie quarterback in 2007.
April 27, 2007
1. It's hard to take Jesse Palmer of NFL Network seriously because of his faux-hawk. But he's a good analyst, just like he is while doing color for games on Fox. This remains mildly disturbing.
2. Through Adam Shefter, the Lions say they will draft Calvin Johnson with the second pick of the draft. I believe them. I think they will listen hard to any monster offers after drafting Johnson, and that it's the only move to make. I wondered earlier this week if Millen would let his past draft mistakes effect him for fear of a P.R. hit. The answer appears to be no.
Now Shefter says the Lions would move the pick if a blockbuster offer comes along, but I'm not sure anyone has the ammo. Tampa has a thin, aging defensive roster. To use three first-day draft picks on another wide receiver when this roster is so thin would be selling Monte Kiffin down the river. Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen know they need to win this year, but even Jerry Rice couldn't have saved the 2006 Bucs.
The Falcons are the most logical team to make the move because of Arthur Blank. But they are another roster that has very little depth at any position. I could see them rolling the dice, but the price is going to be high. Of course this is all assuming the Raiders don’t take Johnson first. Fun draft.
3. Maybe this is all wishful thinking because I'm a Jon Kitna owner in my keeper leage.
4. It's ridiculous I'm watching NFL Network when Matsuzaka is pitching in Yankee Stadium.
5. It's wrong that I live a few miles from Radio City and I'm going to Connecticut before the draft (NBCSports.com world headquarters).
Last minute mock draft coming in the morning before I head up.
Last year on the Friday before the draft at 7:51 P.M, I wrote the final edit of one of the most surprising posts since I started writing for Rotoworld in 2003.
Mario Williams, not Reggie Bush, was going to be the first pick in the draft. As late as, oh Friday morning, absolutely none of the talking heads were predicting this.
So are we headed for another stunner tonight? Rumors are flying that the Raiders could make Brady Quinn the top pick of the draft. Of course it could be a negotiating ploy or flat-out wrong, but it sure is interesting. It would be satisfying for everyone's Mock Draft to be destroyed already. Again.
1. Trent Green, Chiefs
2. Randy Moss, Raiders
3. Lance Briggs, Bears
4. Michael Turner, Chargers
5. Marty Booker, Dolphins
6. Shawn Springs, Redskins
7. Justin McCareins, Jets
8. Kris Jenkins, Panthers
9. Darrell Jackson, Seahawks
10. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
|
