Randy Moss probably isn't going to score 23 touchdowns again this season. His owners are now wondering if he's even going to score ten.
That question was front and center on my mind yesterday when I received an offer in one of my industry leagues: Moss for Jerricho Cotchery. It's a points-per-reception league, and that informed my decision to keep Cotchery. I'd be shocked if Cotchery doesn't catch 85 passes. I wouldn't be shocked if Moss caught only 65. Moss will rebound, and I'd still bet on a top-15 receiver finish. I would make the trade in a standard league, but I'm holding on to the sure thing in Cotchery. How much can change in three weeks!
Let me know if you would do the same thing.
* And to my emailer John: Yes, that means I'd trade Moss for Andre 1500.
1. The Cardinals quarterback decision won't be officially decided until Saturday at the earliest. Matt Leinart did well Friday, but Warner is still the likely pick.
2. Ben Obomanu, sleeper no more. That cements Courtney Taylor's starting job and gets Logan Payne on the team.
3. Darius Walker and Marcel Shipp are out in Houston, which is good news for Chris Taylor. Chris Brown could get axed today.
Musa Smith's signing doesn't change the dynamics of the Jets backfield much - yet. In his first day of practice with the team, Smith worked as both a fullback and a halfback. It's a nice signing for New York, who could use Smith's versatility in a few ways, especially near the goal line.
We've always believed Smith could be a feature back, but he's just battling to make the team in New York. Don't be surprised if he and Jesse Chatman battle for one roster spot. Smith is only going to be a fantasy option if Jones gets hurt. In that scenario, it's easy to imagine him as the more valuable partner in a committee with Leon Washington.
The Jets have worked hard to improve their running game this offseason. With an easy schedule, I think there will be some good fantasy value here. I drafted Thomas Jones in the sixth-round of FantasyGuru's magazine draft and am excited about his value as a RB3.
Our last pick showed that if you are going to be a GM, you better be ready to take some heat for your pick. I'll say this: coming out of college, Darren McFadden and Adrian Peterson's profiles weren't so different. McFadden could be the best playmaker in this draft, and the Chiefs sure need playmakers. I'm not saying the Chiefs would make the move, but that's not what this draft is about. Anyhow, let's move on to the Jets, surprised to be drafting so high in year two of the Tangini era. The writing is courtesy of John B.
The Jets wanted to avoid having an uphappy team captain, so they extended Laveranues Coles' contract on Friday. Coles deserves the money more than say, Kris Jenkins, but the deal is not without risk.
Coles is only turning 31 this year, but his body is older. Year-after-year of playing through injury caught up with him in 2007, when he essentially missed five games and gained his fewest yards since his rookie season. As an undersized receiver (193 pounds) who relies on toughness and physical play, there has to be some concern about an early decline.
Mock Drafts aren't usually built on original thought. They primarily look at other Mock Drafts, switch some names, teams, and needs around, and go from there. Even draftniks who spend the college season following the players tend to have similar rankings because they read each other, but don't know what NFL scouts are seeing or saying.
I've been sold on Mike Mayock's mock drafts since 2005, when he had Aaron Rodgers falling all the way to number 25 to the Packers. It's not just that he nailed a pick absolutely no one saw coming, it's that he had the confidence and research to make his own decision instead of following the masses. His pipeline to NFL teams probably doesn't hurt. He revealed his first top-ten Mock picks last week and there were a few stunners that should be taken seriously. Let's take a look ...
I wrote up the first six rounds of my "Day After Super Bowl" Mock Draft earlier this week. Here are a handful of notable names that fell far into the mid-to-late rounds.
Edgerrin James, 7.01- Arizona should get someone to split carries, so this is about right. I don't they will cut him though.
This is one of the quietest times in the NFL calendar, with early July being the only thing that comes close. In a few weeks the Scouting Combine hits, then free agency, then teams start their offseason programs shortly thereafter.
I usually take my vacation now, but I'm delaying it about six weeks this year to go see the Sox play in Japan, assuming I can get tickets this week. Instead, I'm mostly starting my advance work on our magazine, whose due date gets earlier each year.
One enjoyably odd exercise I'm participating in is a day-after Super Bowl Mock Draft done by email. First time I've ever done one before free agency, or the NFL Draft for that matter. I will write about the results for next week, but wanted to mention one decision I was just faced with. Late sixth-round, I need a running back and they represent the best value for my team.
This is one the key news weeks of the offseason, as we comb through the papers to get indications of where teams will head this offseason before everyone leaves this building. Here are some of interesting nuggets I saw this morning.
* From the Miami Herald, some of the thinking behind Cam Cameron's impending firing:
Tom Brady: Must Start - I have no idea what to expect in this game, but the Patriots passing game probably won’t be firing on all cylinders right off the bat this season with so many new parts. Brady averaged 228 yards a game against the Jets last year, with four total scores and two picks. Expect solid, unspectacular numbers again this week.
Laurence Maroney: Must Start - Workload shouldn’t a problem. Maroney was worked hard in his final preseason effort, and handled it well.
Randy Moss: Borderline WR2 - I’d consider benching Moss if you don’t start 3 WRs. Sure, he could explode for two scores. But he could also be limited to 30-40 snaps or aggravate his hamstring. I want to see something first.
Donte’ Stallworth: Borderline WR3 - I’m not huge on Stallworth this season because I feel like the Patriots will spread it around. With Moss shakier than normal, Stallworth gets a small boost. The Jets aren’t deep at cornerback either.
Wes Welker: Weak Play - Welker gets a huge bump in PPR leagues, but the upside isn’t there most weeks for a WR3 in standard leagues. He’ll be solid, but I respectfully disagree with Mr. Simmons that he’ll be a great fantasy sleeper. More like a great reserve to have for bye weeks.
Ben Watson: Borderline TE1 - Like most Patriots receivers, his role will change dramatically each week. The Jets shut him down three times last year.
Update:Looks like Revis is signing. Here's the post I wrote ...
Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum spoke on ESPN Radio Tuesday night, saying that the team has made significant progress with first-round pick Darrelle Revis.
The agents are in the Jets building, and Tannenbaum said they will work on hammering out the contract tonight. He didn't want to make any guarantees, but he's hitting the media circuit and it appears that the two sides have agreed to terms. Tannenbaum lauded Revis' agents for some "creative solutions.
One of the reasons I wanted a blog, other than the gigantic picture of my face, was it could be a place to share some notes from watching game tape that didn't make a column. So here goes installment from the games last weekend. Tell me if this
Falcons vs. Jets
* Atlanta opened with four wideouts and had at least three on the field on most of their downs. There were four wideouts on the field very often. One wonders how this will affect Alge Crumpler when healthy. It can't help. Bobby Petrino showed a ton of different formations for the first preseason game.
* Roddy White was targeted on the first three passing plays, and six times in the first half of the game. Including an incomplete bomb. Joey Harrington looked like he had just won the Super Bowl after the first two completions. Michael Jenkins and Laurent Robinson shared slot duties.
White burned me last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he leads the Falcons in receiving yards, Not sure if that's worth drafting, though, except in deep leagues.
Most training camp injuries are long forgotten by October. I suspect that will be the case with the injuries to Willie Parker and Thomas Jones.
Parker is healthy enough to play the final three preseason games for Pittsburgh. Missing a few weeks of practice in August certainly doesn't affect his projection. We did move Joseph Addai ahead of Parker recently for the fifth spot on our draft board, but that was only because Addai has such little downside.
Eric, "The Penguin", Mangini is not letting up in his second season as a coach. Mangini became well known for a grueling first training camp last season.
"If anything, he has put his foot more on the gas," Jets receiver Laveranues Coles said yesterday. "I look at the calendar every day, and I'm just dreading the fact that (training camp) has to come around."
I remember Jim Mora (Sr.) once saying that coaches should always err on the side of working their team too hard in their first training camp. You can always ease off the pedal. Looks like Mangini isn't ready for that.
Jerry Jones, promotion maven that he is, likes the fact that Tony Romo likes the fact that Tony Romo has a colorfull off-field life. That's great, but the implication in this story that Romo's star wattage and Hispanic Heritage somehow had something to do with his "franchise quarterback" status is either insulting or ridiculous if true.
The forgotten members of the New England receiver group are Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell. Gaffney especially got a rough shake. He had the best stretch of his career in the playoffs last year, gaining 244 yards with two scores in three games. Now he has a serious uphill battle just to make the team.
I understand the Patriots needing to upgrade, but a lot of articles imply that the team came up one wide receiver short of the Super Bowl last year. To repeat: the Patriots averaged 32 points in the playoffs last year, including 34 in the AFC Championship. Their defense, especially at inside linebacker, was the problem.
Someone also needs to tell Kelley Washington that he's a roster cut walking if everyone stays healthy.
It's early, but the reports about Pittsburgh second-round LB LaMarr Woodley are outrageously positive. First-round pick Lawrence Timmons has barely seen the field, so Woodley looks more likely to start in Week 1 at this point.
A position coach on Woodley, "Compared to the other guys we've had here and trying to make the transition with them, he's further along than anybody we've had."
Could Dwayne Bowe take Eddie Kennison's starting spot? Admittedly, I assumed Bowe would play opposite Kennison, not replace him. Herm Edwards is all about the youth movement this season and it's not hard to imagine a scenario where Bowe is starting opposite Jeff Webb late in the year.
My first thought on the Thomas Jones trade was that it was a great move for the Jets. My second thought was that it was only so-so Jones' fantasy owners. It's good to get away from Cedric Benson, but I doubt the 2007 Jets is a better situation than the 2006 Bears. The only person this trade helps in fantasy leagues is Benson.
The Jets will know how to use Jones' versatility and make him effective per-touch. Jones will be happy because he's making big money the next two years. But I suspect he'll get the ball even less than in Chicago.
