September 25, 2008
This is Robert Meachem, the Saint you don't want this week
If I was making a poll today, the question would be: How fun is it to spend the afternoon wiping out your hard drive and having your computer re-installed because the blue screen of death won't leave you alone?
My response: not fun.
Something that was fun: watching the Broncos/Saints on Shortcuts last night while my wife sat a room away quietly cursing me. I know I'm a sucker for Troy Brown wannabes, but I'm convinced Lance Moore can make a difference with Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston, and possibly David Patten out.
Moore works out of the slot, just like Shockey. Moore saw seven targets last week, four more than Robert Meachem has seen all season. Moore caught every one of them, one on a dive, one on a great leaping grab.
It's always dangerous to bet on the Saints' secondary receivers, because Drew Brees will spread the ball around. But he's long been a champion of Moore getting playing time, and has a trust factor with him. I like Moore as a WR3 this week in a game that should feature plenty of passing yards. Sean Payton, perhaps the most innovative offensive mind in football, always finds a way.
September 15, 2008
Week One Heroes who sunk
1. Maybe they were fluky: Anthony Fasano didn’t have a catch Sunday. Dante Rosario only had a six-yard catch. Randy McMichael had two catches for 24 yards.
2. Marvin Harrison owners should be concerned that he’s pouting like the playoffs and that Anthony Gonzalez looks like the better player.
3. Reggie, Reggie, Reggie is averaging 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season. The receiving numbers and punt return touchdown absolutely save him, especially in PPR leagues, but let’s not get carried away talking about his maturation just yet.
4. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood learned what life can be like with a rookie quarterback facing a real NFL defense. They went from 313 yards and three scores to 60 yards. Thud.
September 10, 2008
Another one bites the dust. Marques Colston was the latest victim of the Week 1 carnage, and fantasy owners will be scrambling to fill his WR1 production. I wouldn't look to fill it with Saints. David Patten is certainly worth owning, but he's the only wideout likely to be remotely consistent. Devery Henderson has failed in his other eight lives. Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson will also be competing with the three useful tight ends New Orleans has, not to mention the running backs. The Saints will spread it around.
If there are benefactors to this injury, they are already in people's lineups. Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey combined for 15 targets in Week 1, and that number could go up. Pierre Thomas and the Saints running game may also see more attempts, which could hurt Drew Brees slightly.
Sean Payton finds a way to get production in the passing game, so don't expect Brees to fall off a cliff. Just don't expect any of the Saints wideouts to suddenly turn into Colston. There are better pickups elsewhere.
August 25, 2008
While watching parts of the Saints-Bengals replay, I couldn't help but notice how much time Aaron Stecker logged with the first team. I also couldn't help notice how much quicker he looked than Deuce McAllister, who appeared to be moving in quick sand. Everyone's favorite sleeper (including myself), Pierre Thomas, looked even more explosive while ripping through tackles and shaking defenders with 81 total yards on nine touches. But all of Thomas' work came in the second half with the second team.
All four players appear locked in to roster spots. Thomas easily has the highest ceiling, but Sean Payton's usage patterns could be frustrating for owners expecting consistent production opposite Reggie Bush.
July 24, 2008
I have spent much of the off-season doubting one of my favorite players of the decade, Deuce McAllister. Players his age just don't come back from a second torn ACL plus a microfracture surgery in the same offseason. So it's only fair to note Thursday that McAllister was on the field for the start of training camp. As best we can tell, he's practicing without restrictions. It's uncertain. however, if there was contact in the drills.
McAllister reportedly weighs ten pounds less than he did when returning from injury two years ago. He still has a long way to go, and I remain skeptical, but it sounds like he's off to a great start. The Saints will give him every chance possible to make the team.
July 21, 2008
Jeremy Shockey can't complain about his offense anymore. Landing in New Orleans represents the absolutely perfect scenario to rehab his fantasy value. No team throws more than the Saints, and they desperately needed a second option behind Marques Colston to make tough catches over the middle. Shockey already knows Sean Payton's system, one that is built on short passes and yards after the catch. That's Shockey's specialty.
Saints tight ends caught 75 passes last year. Shockey's career high was 74, in his rookie season. If Shockey stays healthy, I would expect him to break that mark. He never stays healthy for long, though. He is coming off a broken leg and remains a huge injury risk. I will have a column tomorrow about what the trade does exactly to Shockey's ranking and projections. I have to work out the numbers still, but here's a preview: They are going up.
June 25, 2008
In this week's Fantasy Fix, I pick where I'd draft some of the Saints. (After talking trash on Reggie Bush, I still took him with the 37th pick in our Rotoworld Mock last night. Everyone has a value. I didn't realize one other player I had higher was there. Good thing it was a Mock!)
June 03, 2008
Let's wrapup my June-induced drawn out review of a recent Mock Draft by looking at some running back flier picks.
Continue reading "Mock Review: Running back fliers" »
May 23, 2008
OTA and minicamp season, like Spring, is in full bloom. Like the sudden shedding of clothing in Central Park, NFL writers and players are all too happy to shed the disappointment of last season. There are excuses why last year sucked, and measures have been taken to correct it. Optimism rules.
From time to time, I'll take a look at a popular subject of the offseason puff piece and decide whether it has any merit. Today's subject is Robert Meachem.
Continue reading "Puff Piece Detector: Robert Meachem" »
May 07, 2008
Some of you thought the Jamal Lewis vs. Michael Turner battle wasn't very close. I would argue that many of the same people thought Lewis was overrated as a fifth-round pick last year, but the people have spoken. Today's three-way battle is hopefully more interesting: Steve Smith vs. Marques Colston vs. Brandon Marshall.
This year looks promising for Smith, but he's annually overrated by us fantasy types because he's a great NFL player. He only topped 1,200 yards or eight touchdowns once in his career. Marshall and Colston have already equaled that total and play for better passing teams - especially Colston. There is some projecting here, but let's allow that Marshall is healthy well before most draft days, which is expected. Rank 'em in order if you please.
In the last 45 years, only three receivers have more yards in their first two seasons than Marques Colston: Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Torry Holt. No one has more receptions.
While we're here, may as well point out he's seventh in fantasy points and touchdowns over that span. This gives a good clue about our magazine battle for tomorrow. Carry on.
April 09, 2008
Scott K. has the honors with our tenth pick. He's writing from my favorite town in the country- New Orleans. Sorry about slowing the pace of the draft down the last two days. We'll go three picks today. So James, you are up and TC get ready
With no real holes on offense to fill worthy of a high pick, this pick has to be on the defensive side of the ball. With the premier defenders gone, the Saints have to decide between a quality linebacker, a pass rush specialist, or a cornerback work in progress. A trade down is a possibility, but impossible to predict. With the Saints signing of Bobby McCrary, Randall Gay, Aaron Glenn, and eventual trade for Lito Sheppard (fingers crossed), it makes this pick fairly easy.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 10" »
March 15, 2008
It's been a bad week for Deuce McAllister's value. The Saints delayed a roster bonus for McAllister a month so they could monitor his receovery before making a decision on his future. Now we find out he underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee in addition to the ACL surgery he had on his left knee.
McAllister now has undergone ACL and microfracture surgery on that right knee in the last few years. Trying to overcome one devastating knee surgery at McAllister's age is hard enough. Two at the same time is nearly impossible. Perhaps McAllister will stay on the Saints roster, but the odds are heavily against him helping them or fantasy teams in 2008 now. Pierre Thomas, who looked like the real deal in a Week 17 performance, suddenly looks like a big-time fantasy sleeper. I'd grab him in keeper leagues. Aaron Stecker is also on the roster for insurance.
March 10, 2008
Mock Drafts aren't usually built on original thought. They primarily look at other Mock Drafts, switch some names, teams, and needs around, and go from there. Even draftniks who spend the college season following the players tend to have similar rankings because they read each other, but don't know what NFL scouts are seeing or saying.
I've been sold on Mike Mayock's mock drafts since 2005, when he had Aaron Rodgers falling all the way to number 25 to the Packers. It's not just that he nailed a pick absolutely no one saw coming, it's that he had the confidence and research to make his own decision instead of following the masses. His pipeline to NFL teams probably doesn't hurt. He revealed his first top-ten Mock picks last week and there were a few stunners that should be taken seriously. Let's take a look ...
Continue reading "Mayock's Top Ten" »
March 06, 2008
Another option has emerged for Julius Jones. Seattle has expressed some interest, even after signing T.J. Duckett. There's a solid chance nothing will come of this, but it's yet another sign that Shaun Alexander is likely on his way out of Seattle this summer. Seattle's starting running back probably isn't on the roster yet. I'd bet on a first-round pick getting the call, but Jones is another possibility.
Adam Schefter mentioned another veteran who could be available soon. The Saints have until March 15 to decide whether they want to pay Deuce McAllister a roster bonus.
March 03, 2008
Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper talking on the phone is a fun Sportscenter story, but that's it. Culpepper isn't guaranteed an NFL job this year, much less dictating the terms of it. And while Moss is sure to find suitors, he's a unique case that will only fit a few teams.
Continue reading "Moss and Culpepper daydreaming" »
February 15, 2008
I wrote up the first six rounds of my "Day After Super Bowl" Mock Draft earlier this week. Here are a handful of notable names that fell far into the mid-to-late rounds.
Edgerrin James, 7.01- Arizona should get someone to split carries, so this is about right. I don't they will cut him though.
Continue reading "Falling Big Names" »
December 11, 2007
Tony Kornheiser asked Ron Jaworski during Monday Night's telecast why the Saints didn't play that well all year.
Jaws replied, "They didn't play Atlanta enough."
The Falcons have a dangerous lack of motivation and talent on defense, especially in their secondary. They can be exposed by creative passing attacks. And wouldn't you know, they face Jon Gruden and Ken Whisenhunt the next two weeks.
I love Joey Galloway and Jeff Garcia (assuming he plays) to go off this week, and wouldn't be surprised to see Ike Hilliard have a big day. If you are still playing in Week 16, your Cardinals receivers should explode.
Continue reading "Atlanta, Arizona defense can be picked on" »
December 05, 2007
When the Associated Press starts penning articles slamming you, the tide has officially turned. It's been a rough season for Reggie Bush in New Orleans, and the natives are restless. The Biloxi Sun-Herald ran an incisive article this week about the disconnect between Reggie and his teammates, focusing on Bush's attempt to leave the field early Sunday.
I'm surprised that this story didn't get bigger. When Randy Moss left the field early while a member of the Vikings, the story made headlines for days. Bush was walking out when there was still an offensive play left in a one-score game. And the play was designed for him! Sean Payton tracked Reggie down, but the damage to his image locally was done.
I am not that concerned with all the whispers about Reggie's "Hollywood" attitude. I am more concerned that his quarterback clearly isn't happy with him. And that his head coach felt forced to turn to Aaron Stecker to help salvage the running game after losing to Houston. In a rough season for Saint Reggie, that's more damning than any botched trick play.
November 26, 2007
Like many of the receivers who have lined up across from Marques Colston the last two seasons, David Patten has struggled to keep a hot streak going.
After playing like a WR2 for a four-game stretch (331 yards, one score), Patten has only seven catches for 83 yards the last three weeks. Guys like Terrance Copper, Devery Henderson, and Lance Moore have shown flashes in New Orleans, but not enough consistency to play them every week. Sean Payton's system makes them look great occasionally, but ultimately they aren't talented enough to be weekly fantasy options. Drew Brees is going to spread the ball around except for Colston.
New Orleans needs to address their receiver depth in the offseason again after drafting Robert Meachem last year. And fantasy owners who rode Patten's hot streak need to bench him for the playoffs.
November 06, 2007
Pat Dahl knocked out Waiver Wired, but here’s how I’d rank the popular pickups in a lot of leagues this week.
1. Justin Fargas – Who knows how long he can stay healthy, but you can’t ignore his YPC or starting status. I’d definitely take him ahead of Priest Holmes.
2. David Patten – He’s getting the numbers we expected to see from Devery Henderson. The way New Orleans’ passing game is clicking, Patten can keep it up as a legitimate WR3 option the rest of the way.
3. Priest Holmes – I still can’t get over the fact that we’re talking about Priest Holmes again. This is no longer a recommendation for cautious Larry Johnson owners to pick him up as insurance. Priest Holmes will be the first waiver pickup in many leagues this week (even if I disagree), and then he’s going to be in fantasy lineups this Sunday against the hapless Broncos.
I have no clue what’s going to happen.
How can you evaluate a ghost? Holmes wasn’t exactly on the top of his game when he disappeared two years ago and the Kansas City offense has gone downhill since. He’s going to get less carries than LJ was, and probably get fewer yards-per-carry.
Listening to Herm Edwards talk, I think that he’d like Kolby Smith get an equal-or-more share eventually.
4. Michael Robinson – Don’t assume Frank Gore will stay healthy when he returns. If knew Gore was out another week, Robinson might be ahead of LJ.
Continue reading "Waiver Ranks" »
October 31, 2007
I have been cautious about proclaiming the New Orleans "back" until we saw some consistency. Scratching out a low-scoring win at home against the Falcons didn't exactly inspire confidence.
With that said, I just watched the Shortcuts from the Saints-49ers game and could not have been more impressed. While Alex Smith played one of the worst quarterback games I've seen all year, Drew Brees played one of the very best against a secondary that has been playing well. Some of this may sneak into Goal Line Stand tomorrow, but here's what I noticed.
Continue reading "The Saints are back; 49ers not so much" »
October 09, 2007
We know Marques Colston's back is hurt because pregame reports Sunday said that he might not start the Saints game. He did wind up starting, and aside from the occasional snap (a few more than usual), Colston played the whole game.
Like the rest of the Saints, Colston's production has fallen hard this season. His four-catch, 31-yard effort Sunday was indicative of his season.
Colston has 22 catches for 216 yards and a score on the year. That will keep you afloat in PPR leagues, but owners didn't draft Colston to be Wes Welker light. It's not a good sign when Ike Hilliard has more big plays.
Colston amazingly has only one catch over 15 yards, which shows that he's not making plays after the catch like he did as a rookie when his yards-per-catch was five yards higher. I don't know how hurt Colston is, but I'm guessing it's a bigger issue than the Saints have let on. Owners in shallow 2WR leagues could consider benching him in the meantime.
October 03, 2007
Sean Payton was asked Wednesday if Aaron Stecker would take over Deuce McAllister's role in the offense, and Peyton made it clear that wouldn't be the case. Reggie Bush will pick up most of the running workload.
"Reggie will get more carries. Stecker will be involved and Pierre Thomas will be involved, but you'll see Reggie get more handoffs."
Peyton was later asked whether they would use Brian Westbrook as a model and said Bush could expect to see 18-20 carries a game.
Continue reading "Bush readying for carry increase" »
September 25, 2007
I am getting a lot of "Stecker or Leonard?" emails today. The decision isn't close, and I'd take Ron Dayne far before Stecker if he's available. For my thoughts on Leonard, head over to Waiver Wired.
Stecker is a terrific role player, and he's survived countless challenges over the last few years just to keep his roster spot. But he's ultimately a third-down back, and the Saints already have one that makes a few more dollars. Stecker will have a role, but it's not going to be bigger than it was in 2005, when he split the workload with Antowain Smith. Stecker averaged 58 total yards-per-game after Deuce was hurt in '05, and that number should decline.
Continue reading "The Greatest Pierre in the NFL" »
September 24, 2007
The Saints have problems up and down their roster right now. The pass defense is among the league's worst. The running game is inert and Deuce McAllister is hurt.
On offense, I'd argue that the offensive line is the biggest issue. Drew Brees hasn't been able to set his feet and step into a throw throughout the second half. Teams are getting pressure on New Orleans without sending extra blitzers. If that doesn't change, Brees' struggles will continue.
I doubt Devery Henderson owners had the guts to play him this week, but they will be interested to see if Henderson's benching last week had a lasting impact.
Henderson didn't start, but Marques Colston was the only wide receiver on the field on the first play. Henderson was back out there the next two plays, so it looks like he'll get a chance to redeem himself. As a Saints semi-fan, I've never been a fan of Henderson's play. But he has enough fantasy upside to hang on to for a few more weeks.
September 20, 2007
Some possible reasons ...
1. The league is catching up Sean Payton's schemes
I'm not smart enough to explain how Payton confused opposing defenses last year, but he out-coached some teams last year. He made Terrance Copper look like Sterling Sharpe. That's not happening anymore.
2. The Saints can't beat the Cover Two
Chicago, Indy, and Tampa all play the Cover Two. Maybe New Orleans will do better against different defenses, although Tennessee is almost certain to play two safeties deep against New Orleans as well.
Continue reading "Why are the Saints struggling?" »
September 18, 2007
I don't like owning old receivers. I'd rather give up a year too early than a year too late. That's why I don't have guys like Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad on my team, although I know plenty of owners out there do.
These guys are edging towards irrelevence. Muhammad is known for his consistency, but has two catches for 15 yards in two games. Joe Horn has three catches for 48 yards. They are both slowing players on weak offenses. In Chicago, Bernard Berrian is clearly the top option. Roddy White appears to emerging in Atlanta.
Continue reading "Hot Seats: Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad" »
September 14, 2007
The wide receivers for the Saints and 49ers are going to get upgraded slightly in our rankings because of injuries to their opposition this week. Brian Kelly, Tampa's oft-injured cornerback, looks to be out for the Bucs. Philip Buchanon is an accident waiting to happen, so look for better days from Marques Colston and Devery Henderson.
St. Louis' young cornerback Tye Hill is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a back injury. Hill had consistency problems, but the Rams' poor cornerback depth is going to be exposed big time. Darrell Jackson, Arnaz Battle, and Alex Smith should all enjoy better days this week. St. Louis will be among my favorite matchups each week to pick on, along with Detroit.
September 12, 2007
Every NFL week is full of surprises; the ones early in the year just get more attention. Here's a quick list of players I'm watching closely this week.
1. Marshawn Lynch - After watching the Shortcuts of this game, I'm pretty sure he's for real. You can't teach breaking tackles. A good game against Pittsburgh would solidify his RB2 status.
2. Chris Brown - The Titans offensive line was fierce. Let's see if they can blow up the Colts.
3. Jaguars runners - Their offensive line got pushed around. Look for a better effort against the Falcons.
4. Saints offense - I know it was only one game. But I still want to see what they do against the Bucs.
Continue reading "Surprises" »
September 07, 2007
The optimist in me would point out that the Saints offense looked nearly as bad throwing the ball in Week 1 last season against Cleveland (30 attempts, 170 yards). The Saints fan in me knows this season will get better, but Sean Payton's magic may not work quite as consistently this season.
All right, things we learned
1. Eric Johnson (8-for-56) is going to be a nice PPR option, especially against zone defenses.
2. Anthony Gonzalez (one target) may not be a big part of the Colts offense for a while. Ben Utecht may have been on the field more.
3. When Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister combine for 78 yards rushing against the Colts, you know it's a brand new season.
Continue reading "Things we learned" »
September 06, 2007
Not a great night for Devery Henderson - or anyone one the Saints offense. Five targets, two catches, 11 yards, and an ugly drop late in the game. Henderson has had problems with drops and toughness throughout his career. It's why the Saints drafted Robert Meachem to replace him.
The thing that made me shudder as a Saints supporter is that Henderson shied away from contact, causing the drop. We've seen this before.
Update: As I'm writing this, Henderson catches a 24-yard pass. Better than nothing.
Very close watchers of commerical breaks may have just seen the national debut of Pancake Blocks on the John Madden Verizon V-Cast commerical. After some dude throws a football that eventually topples a lawn sculpture, Madden makes a face, and Verizon begins to show the exclusive fantasy football content available on V-Cast.
They show an NBC logo, then for about half a second, on about half of the screen in the phone, they show half of me and Tiffany talking. If you blinked, you missed it. Mrs. Pancake Blocks had to rewind on Tivo a few times just to tell it was me. Glad I didn't tell my parents or anyone else to watch, but cool nonetheless. Rotoworld Nation has come a long way.
Why would you punt on fourth-and-inches down three possessions in the fourth quarter? The idea should be to win, not protect the scoreboard. I'll never understand this. It's not like fourth-and-inches is a low percentage play.
The Colts knew what they were doing when they let Jason David go. Just like Nick Harper. Sure, Reggie Wayne (who just burned David for a score) and Marvin Harrison are going to make most cornerbacks look bad. But teams just don't let good players walk, especially moderately priced cornerbacks like David who sign offer sheets as a restricted free agent.
There has been a lot of talk about the defensive players Indy lost, from their cornerbacks to Cato June, but a lot of them were a big part of a bad defense. The Colts will find out if their young starters Freddie Keiahoe, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden are quality options. It's worth finding out because the old guys weren't that great.
One thing that Joseph Addai owners had to be concerned about was Indy's tendency to throw on the goal line. I watched Manning throw three straight inside the five during one preseason game, something that often happens in the regular season.
Well, this time Manning took one shot from the two-yard line before they called a run. And Addai punched it in. Maybe they will do it on first down more often in the future.
Maybe that playoff Colts defense is here to stay. Or maybe the Saints are slowly blowing a great chance to have a lead in a very difficult road game. The Saints defense has given up ten points and scored seven on their own. If not for a lucky bounce, this game would be a snorer.
Classic Joseph Addai half. Or at least the Joseph Addai I expect to see in 2007. He seemed active, but it's a surprise when you notice he has 88 total yards at halftime on 13 carries and a catch.
Do that again and you have a quiet 175 total yard day. He's a great slasher and always hits the right holes. Playing on the Colts practically guarantees him 100 total yards a game. He rarely does anything that wows you, though, and that's the difference between ranked in Big Three this year (LT2, Jackson, and Gore), and being ranked fourth. Addai owners won't mind one bit.
That's three catches for Eric Johnson. I'd tell you the amount of yards, but the play-by-play and box score is still having problems.
Watching Johnson work, it's not hard to see why he always gets hurt. He certainly isn't making anyone miss and he's a big target underneath who seeks out contact. The Colts have already leveled him twice, causing a fumble. A few more games like this and Johnson is going to be on the sidelines again.
Haven't seen Anthony Gonzalez on the field much tonight. John Madden made an interesting comment that the Colts want Gonzalez to be Brandon Stokley, but he's not yet.
I wasn't sure if Madden was trying to say that Gonzalez has been a slight disappointment thus far or just stating the obvious that Gonzalez is a rookie with a long way to go. Either way, I'm not buying him as a fantasy asset until 2008.
When I was talking about this game with people this week, I said no result would surprise me except a defensive struggle. While I'm sure this thing will loosen up, it's Offense 7, Defense 7 through 25 minutes
A nice early reminder that none of us know anything.
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