August 20, 2008
Stray thoughts about rounds 9 and 10 of the Mock Draft I wrote about today
* Interesting to see Anthony Gonzalez's value falling some with Marvin Harrison enjoying a healthy camp. There are only so many passes to go around.
* Chris Perry wouldn't go in the ninth round if we re-did the draft tonight now that he's the starter. I've been writing about him all off-season, so I'm enjoying the development. Especially since I acquired him in my dynasty league for a move down in the fourth round rookie draft and the Bucs Alex Smith. Hot damn! Better trade him before he gets hurt.
Continue reading "Draft Notes ... and Steve Jack is back" »
June 26, 2008
This time, it was Krause Publications' draft for their second magazine. It was a PPR draft, with six points per passing touchdown. I can't give away all the goodies, but here are a few picks in the first three rounds that caught my eye.
1.08: Peyton Manning: Gets a huge bump in this scoring format
1.11: Larry Johnson: Just not slipping out of the first round
2.07: Jamal Lewis: Ahead of PPR studs like Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Chad Johnson
2.11: Reggie Bush: Risky, but not that crazy in this format.
3.08: Darren McFadden: I don't love it, but may catch a lot of passes.
3.09: Willie Parker: Not taking as big a hit as I expected.
3.11: Brandon Marshall: Recent arrest didn't hurt him much.
Continue reading "Another Day, another Mock Draft" »
June 03, 2008
Let's wrapup my June-induced drawn out review of a recent Mock Draft by looking at some running back flier picks.
Continue reading "Mock Review: Running back fliers" »
Here’s a look at where some of the backup quarterbacks fell in the final six rounds of the Mock Draft I wrote about last week. The wideout fliers got a lot of comments, let's try to keep these to football as best we can.
10.05. Eli Manning: Industry veterans not buying the playoff maturation. If nothing else, he’s a safe pick this late.
12.02. Aaron Rodgers: And here comes to the QB2 run. Just love the value here.
Continue reading "More Mock Review: Eli gets no love" »
May 30, 2008
Continuing with the Mock Draft article, here are some late-round players that I was surprised to see drafted where they went - good and bad.
10.02: Devin Hester: Even with special teams touchdowns counting, I still don't actually playing him in a given week.
10.07: Anthony Gonzalez: The hype not quite what I was expecting ... yet. He went after D.J. Hackett and Isaac Bruce.
11.01: Jabar Gaffney: I just don't see it. And I watch the Patriots every week. I'd rather go Chad Jackson in the 16th.
11.08: Sidney Rice: I like him at this spot a lot more than Bernard Berrian 40 picks before.
Continue reading "Late-Round WR Surprises" »
Underpromise and overdeliver. I've heard this phrase a lot recently, embarrassingly on Top Chef, which the wife got me into. (And I've jumped on the bandwagon with resounding force. Shut up).
I have not lived up to this screed this week I realized. I said I would follow up on my Mock Draft writeup with analysis of the second half of the draft and failed. Here's my penance, with a look at the ninth round. I'll look at my favorite fliers and most interesting late-round picks later today.
Continue reading "Ninth-Round Analysis" »
February 19, 2008
Post-Hype Goodness?
I've milked about as much material from my recent Mock Draft as possible, so let's wrap it up with some interesting late-round picks.
Kevin Jones, 10.01 - It's hard to project an injury so far out. But Jones' torn ACL is probably less severe than the foot injury he recovered from last year. The danger is that Detroit will get serious competition for carries this year.
Julius Jones, 10.03 - Depends on where he lands, but Jones has a solid chance to have a big role next year.
Continue reading "Late Value" »
After focusing on player movement in my column today, let's get back to fantasy with my first Mock draft of the offseason. Last time around, I looked at some big names that fell. Now let's forecast some names who may be on a lot of "sleeper" lists because they are climbing the rankings this year. For this post, we'll focus on mid-round risers.
Santonio Holmes, Steelers: 5.01 - Not sure if he's already made "The Leap" but a lot of people will be expecting more progress. I absolutely love Holmes, but any higher than this is too early. Plus hanging out with McLovin too much could slow down his offseason training.
Continue reading "Mid-Round Sleeper preview" »
February 15, 2008
I wrote up the first six rounds of my "Day After Super Bowl" Mock Draft earlier this week. Here are a handful of notable names that fell far into the mid-to-late rounds.
Edgerrin James, 7.01- Arizona should get someone to split carries, so this is about right. I don't they will cut him though.
Continue reading "Falling Big Names" »
August 22, 2007
Two rounds to go, although kickers and defense are all that's left for me. Here's a look at my team so far. Remember, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF, and points-per-reception. It's a heavy WR league.
QB: Marc Bulger, Jason Campbell
RB: Willie Parker, Thomas Jones, DeAngelo Williams, LenDale White, Adrian Peterson (CHI), Najeh Davenport
WR: Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, D.J. Hackett, Jerry Porter, Wes Welker, Maurice Stovall, Roddy White
TE: Jason Witten
Continue reading "Say Goodnight" »
Vernand Morency goes at 10.05. Greg Jennings makes it all the way to 10.08. The bad vibes from his training camp is having an effect. The Vikings of all teams go in the tenth round. And yes, defenses score a lot in this system. But position scarcity doesn't change.
With 10.11, gotta love seeing a team take Michael Turner, just to screw the LaDainian Tomlinson owner on the turn who was remaining patient. That should be worth something.
Jacoby Jones goes in the eleventh! Ahead of Matt Jones. Can my man James Jones be next?
The picks are slowing down, a bad trend since we're not even half-way through and I'm already getting the silent treatment by the better-looking members of this apartment.
Chester Taylor is taken in a great value at 8.11. There will be quality running backs late in PPR leagues. Warrick Dunn goes two picks before him, Kevin Jones after. Mike Furrey, Matt Hasselbeck follow.
I have no idea if you can follow the draft, but here's the league site for those who asked. SOFALeague.
Three defenses go in four picks. Huh?
Anyhow, eighth round, do I go for a ridiculous luxury pick and take LenDale White as my RB4 ... or go with Chris Cooley, my second ranked tight end. Five tight ends are off the board.
Update: Cooley goes. Do you go luxury with LenDale or safe with Jason Witten or a fourth receiver?
Santana Moss and Calvin Johnson go before me, and I snap up DeAngelo Williams in the middle of a RB3 run that includes Julius Jones and Fred Taylor. Still plenty of quality option available, but my WR3 spot has been empty since round three. Jon Kitna is the first QB gone in a while at 6.08. Tony Romo goes two picks later. Brandon Jackson could make me regret passing on him at 6.10, but I think DeAngelo has the edge in a PPR league.
Todd Heap starts the seventh round, reminding me tight ends still exist.
Carson Palmer is stolen at 5.04. Gulp. Drew Brees also goes before me, and I take Marc Bulger over Tom Brady, proving I'm truly unbiased. Or stupid. Vince Young and Donovan McNabb go next in a wild quarterback run.
I was planning to take DeAngelo Williams or Cotchery with my next pick, but Cotchery goes. Jamal Lewis starts the sixth round. Still plenty of good RB3s on the board like DeAngelo Williams, Julius Jones, Brandon Jackson and LenDale White. I have to decide whether to sew up my WR3 with Santana Moss or Calvin Johnson or take a back.
In the most surprising pick of the draft, Rotoworld favorite LaMont Jordan goes at 4.10. Braylon Edwards with another surprise at 5.01. Receivers flying off the board in this format.
My choice: a QB1 (Carson Palmer on as I write)
a RB3: (DeAngelo Williams, Chester Taylor, Julius Jones)
or
a WR3: (Jerricho Cotchery, Calvin Johnson, Santana Moss)
What do you think?
We're into the fourth round and Carnell Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber, and Housh just went off the board. I'm surprised to see so many other receivers (Javon Walker, Donald Driver, Lee Evans) go in front of Marques Colston and Boldin.
I am really tempted to take Carson Palmer at 4.07 (still only Manning has gone), but would rather wait until 5.05 if I go for a quarterback. Colston and Adrian Peterson go in front of me, leaving Boldin, a nice WR2 in this format.
Damn, Brandon Jacobs goes at 3.03 to FFToday. Antonio Gates and Larry Fitzgerald (who I would have taken) go in the two picks before me. I have the choice between Thomas Jones and Anquan Boldin/Marques Colston and go with Jones. I love both the big wideouts in PPR leagues and would love to see Boldin get back to me, but Jones should catch plenty of passes as well. Happy to get my 17th RB in this format here.
Peyton Manning goes at 2.11. Surprised to see Mo-Jo go at 1.09, but he gets big edge in this format.
FootballGuys, in a savvy move, takes Roy Williams and T.O. and the 2nd/3rd turn after grabbing Tomlinson in round one.
I had a tough decision in round two. Ronnie Brown was my highest running back available, with Brandon Jacobs next. Steve Smith was taken one pick before me or he would have been a cinch. I've been talking about taking the safe WR1 this year over the shaky RB2 and that's doubly true in a PPR league where you start 3 WRs. I'm hoping Jacobs somehow gets back to me. I take Reggie Wayne.
LJ goes fourth, Addai fifth. I thought about Reggie Bush with the pick because it's a PPR league, but Parker is the pick. Now the draft really starts ...
I like eight running backs in points-per-reception leagues before a big decline, so the seventh spot is a fine place to be. I would love Joseph Addai to slip to me, but I suspect I'll wind up with Willie Parker. Life will get harder in round two: a tier one wideout or a second tier running back. We're currently being delayed.
August 03, 2007
So it looks like all the Cecil Sapp hype is having an effect on Mike Bell's draft stock.
After narrowly passing him up in my last round of my Mock Draft, I ended up getting him 24 picks later with the 139th pick of the draft. I've been watching Sapp as closely as anyone, but this is still a great value for a young running back like Bell. Denver has needed to use multiple running backs for the last three years and Mike Shanahan loves playing depth chart games.
There is risk, but it's worth it this late. At some point, you have to look beyond this week and see the big picture. Bell is a nice RB4.
Note: I'm taking off for a wedding in Boston shortly. If the "scheduling" posts fuction worked, I'd spread out the next couple entries. But it doesn't.
August 01, 2007
Apologies for the late start here, probably will happen a lot on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday during camp while I'm preparing the Daily Dose. My take on the Culpepper signing is there. We also posted the annual Post-Hype All Star team on Tuesday. Rotoworld had its highest traffic day in history, but I think it had just a little more to do with the MLB Trading Deadline.
***
So I went with Ben Watson, then Matt Jones over Mike Bell in the draft I wrote about last night.
There were three picks before my Jones pick came up and they went like this: Brandon Jones, Ronald Curry, Jerry Porter. If I was a little more paranoid, I'd think someone out there was reading this blog because those were three of the top four wideouts I listed.
Anyhow, the Cecil Sapp emergence in Denver has me just spooked enough to wait on Bell. I didn't like the next tier of wideouts and made sure I got a fourth receiver I was happy with.
Back in a few with a Patriots player who should be concerned.
July 31, 2007
One of the keys to drafting in the middle round is taking stock of how thin each available position is. I am about to be on the clock once again in the draft I've written about all week. The picks are 7.13 and 8.02 in a 14-team league.
Here's my squad so far ...
QB: Donovan McNabb
RB: Steven Jackson, Jerious Norwood, LenDale White
WR: Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, D.J. Hackett
TE:
Continue reading "Mining Mid-Round Value" »
July 30, 2007
Here's what I decided on in my draft last night. LenDale White was a no-brainer with my 6.13 pick. I needed a third running back badly, and he was the only player left in my RB3 tier.
With the 7.02 pick, I had to choose between D.J. Hackett, Santonio Holmes, and Chris Cooley. Only three tight ends were off the board, but I knew a run was likely to take place before I get to pick again. Despite ranking Cooley second in our draft guide, I went with Hackett. We start three wideouts and I didn't want to get behind building quality depth. A great wideout will help you more than a great tight end, and Hackett can be great. I suspect a quality TE option like Jason Witten will fall back to me. L.J. Smith and Heath Miller (at a later pick) are quality worst-case scenarios.
Occasionally, I will go against the Rotoworld rankings during a draft. Choosing Hackett over Holmes was one of those times and it's caused Hackett has proven himself over the last two years as one of the very best reserves in the league. He's entering his prime, and is quite possibly the top receiver on pass-first offense. There is very little downside. Holmes is a second-year player that I am enamored with. But he's riskier because of his age and the unpredictable Pittsburgh offense.
Hackett is getting a slight upgrade in the Rotoworld draft guide shortly.
July 29, 2007
I'm just about to be on the clock again in rounds 6 and 7 of the industry draft I've been writing about over the last week. My team thus far...
QB: Donovan McNabb
RB: Steven Jackson, Jerious Norwood
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne
This is a 14-team league, no points-per-reception, 2 RB, 3 WR, no flex player. I thought I was about to have a tough decision, but three of my favorite value picks just came off the board in a row (Brandon Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Jerricho Cotchery) were just taken off the board before I'm up. Guys like LaMont Jordan and Julius Jones are long gone, so I'm set to take LenDale White as my RB3 if the guy in front of me doesn't. Hopefully he's not reading because my RB situation goes from thin to desperate if White is gone. I'm actually confident in the pick based on what we're hearing out of Tennessee in camp.
After White and Jackson, I see a big drop-off to players like Ladell Betts and Vernand Morency. The value just won't be there. My choice will come down to: Take my second-ranked tight end (Chris Cooley) or the best WR available (we start 3).
The wideouts on the board will include D.J. Hackett, Santonio Holmes, Kevin Curtis, and Ronald Curry.
So what would you do?
July 27, 2007
So I had a quandry in my draft last night and asked for help. You guys came through huge.
After initially leaning towards grabbing Caddy and the highest ranked receiver left, I went WR-WR. Just like "J" and an anonymous reader suggested. IF I had decided to take Williams, it would have been with my second-round pick. I see Wayne and Harrison as interchangeable, and would not have anticipated the guy on the turn taking both.
Continue reading "Taking Top Tier Wideouts" »
I'm on the clock in what is probably my favorite "industry" league I do all year, FFWebmasters. Lots of good site owners.
The league is standard (non PPR) scoring, but is 14 teams. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF, no flex.
The draft plays out one pick at a time, we have a 12-hour clock and can trade picks, but not much of that goes on. We're almost through two rounds in roughly 28 hours.
I was lucky enough to receive the second pick of the draft and took Steven Jackson. Really wrestled with taking Frank Gore. I'm a sucker for the Inconvenient Truth. Convinced he's a Hall of Fame talent if he can stay healthy. Wouldn't be surprised if Gore is the RB1 this year, but Jackson just feels safer this season. I'm trying to hit more doubles with draft picks this season (less risk) rather than always swinging for the fences as is my wont.
Continue reading "Mock Draft: You make the call" »
June 27, 2007
Round 11 starts with Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad. It looks like I'm not the only one who doesn't want to touch these guys this year.
Leinart, Roethlisberger, and Eli go in round 11. You can wait for your QB2, even in a league like this one that gives six points per touchdown.
Porter and Mike Furrey solid values in round 11. Anthony Gonzalez... I don't understand the fascination with a rookie third receiver.
Damn, Brandon Marshall taken one pick ahead of my in round 12, Maurice Stovall the same in round 13. Both were my sleepers lined up. Take the players you want.
Robert Meachem is a fun twelth round pick. Tab Perry is an odd one.
I take Lorenzo Booker in round 12, who was near the top of board even I didn't own Ronnie Brown.
First kicker goes at the end of the fourteenth - Vinatieri.
Some players that may undrafted because I'm down to just needing a kicker and defense: Patrick Crayton, Michael Pittman, Mark Bradley, Kolby Smith.
Thanks for stopping by today. I will write up this whole draft for a future column. I want to do another live Mock in the future, but tomorrow is out because I'm swamped here with the magazine.
My final team ... We start 3 WRs and a flex. It's PPR and with my team I'm probably starting four each week.
QB: Tony Romo, Eli Manning
RB: Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Lorenzo Booker, DeDe Dorsey
WR: Anquan Boldin, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Isaac Bruce, Ronald Curry, Wes Welker
TE: Antonio Gates
DEF: Raiders
K: Neil Rackers
Solid, unspectacular team. I like the receiver depth. Need a little juice and running back depth. The Romo pick is the only thing I'd do differently. It's definitely a PPR team, with a lot of players who have extra value in this format like Boldin, Cotchery, Coles, Brown, Bruce.
Gotta love a 90 minute, 16 round draft. ... And the Pizza is here. I can't believe I get paid for this.
Probably won't post again till Thursday, thanks for stopping by.
Maybe I'm blogging too much and not paying attention enough to the draft. That Romo pick was the only mistake of the draft. Going against my board is a bad idea, and there were enough QBs available on the way back. Jordan, easily my top RB left, was gone. That left LenDale White and Brandon Jackson as possible RB3 picks.
I take White, then Ronald Curry in round nine as my WR4. A little light on RBs here. Some great TEs still be taken late - Cooley in round 8!, Witten in round 9. Kitna goes in round ten!
With three WRs and a flex in a PPR league, we basically start four wide receivers. Or I will anyway. So I draft Isaac Bruce or Jerry Porter because the value just isn't there at running back.
I smell a QB2 run coming (get this one right) and take Eli as my backup late in round 11.
McNabb was off the board, so my next pick came down to Tony Romo, Jerricho Cothery, Braylon Edwards, and LaMont Jordan. We start three WRs and a flex in this league and I had Cotchery and Edwards a tier ahead of everyone else left, so I went with Cotchery. Go Jets!
I also figured Jordan and possibly Romo will slip to the next round. Tatum Bell went at the top of round seven, only a few picks after Kevin Jones. I dont want Bell at all.
D.J. Hackett went in the early sixth. Ahman Green and Julius Jones in mid-sixth. There will be quality running back options available in middle rounds this year. They are all tightly bunched after those first 15 or so, which means plenty will slip.
The second tier of tight ends go in the early sixth, making me feel good about my Gates pick.
** As I was typing this, I go drastically against my board for the first time all day and take Tony Romo over LaMont Jordan. I see the QBs about to go, and don't want to chance having Eli Manning as my QB1. Still, does this mean I don't really have faith in my boy Jon Kitna, who is still out there?
I would be a very happy man if LaMont Jordan slips another round.
So I grabbed Lavaeranues Coles as my WR2 in the fifth round. Boldin is my WR1. Brown and Addai are the RBs, Gates is my TE. I was debating between Bulger and Coles, especially because we get 6 pts. per passing TD in this league. But Bulger went two picks ahead and made my choice easy. According to my board, I'm getting good value, which is all you can hope for.
I get the sense there is more disagreement about touts than usual after the top 20 picks or so this season.
Going to have to decide between Donovan McNabb and the best RB/WR in a bit. Hopefully.
Back with some interesting picks in a bit.
With a mid-fourth round pick, I can't believe Brandon Jacobs and Marques Colston are still on the board with only two picks before me.
Of course you know what happened. They both went. I put my money where my mouth is in our magazine and drafted Antonio Gates. I never take a TE early, but it's a good year to take him in the fourth round. Still a huge gap till the next guy. I have Chris Cooley as the number two tight end with an early sixth-round grade. Gates is 29th on my list. If I didn't take him, I wouldn't have thought TE until round 8. My WRs are going to be a bit thin.
Must stick to board. I had Brown tenth in PPR leagues and went with him. Early surprises ...
Travis Henry at tenth in this format. Edgerrin James in the late second round, Marshawn Lynch in the mid-third. Javon Walker in the top 30. This is a great group of site owners mostly.
I realized there is no way to look for advice, so I'll just chime in with how it's going occasionally. The limit to the picks is 60 seconds and most people aren't waiting that room. We are working after all. My gambit on Brown paid off because I still had the choice of Anquan Boldin or Andre Johnson in the third round, not that huge a step down from Wayne/Holt. I hope.
Big Run on receivers after me. Plenty of quality running backs slipping. Only Manning off the board as a QB in the first three rounds.
One of the defining features/questions of every draft is whether you take a wideout or a running back in the second round. This season, I think presents a better year than most to take a top receiver. There is a cut-off in the running backs somewhere after the top 12-15 when it's worth it. My cut off is around my RBs that are ranked 12-14: Travis Henry, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee.
Basically, do you want to take sure things like Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, and Larry Fitzgerald or cloudy situations like Clinton Portis, Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams.
In this format, which awards points-per-reception, I think I'm going to be into my wide receivers with the No. 18 pick. We'll see. Draft is being held up right now. I really should be editing our magazine, yet I'm doing a draft. And blogging about it!
Dang, got so busy setting our rankings, the draft is started already. I have the seventh pick, .5 PPR for RBs, PPR for WRs, TEs league.
So I had the seventh pick. LT2, Steven Jackson, Alexander, LJ, Gore, Westbrook went ahead of me.
My board had Addai, then Bush. Nice spot to be. I stayed with the board. The Alexander pick IMO is a huge mistake in this scoring system. The real question now is... do I take another RB with my second-round pick or go for a receiver?
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