July 02, 2008
Finishing off another magazine. Unless big news happened, I try not to adjust my projections too much. Often, we can overthink things and tweak too much based on minor news.
One player that got a slight tweak downwards was Ronnie Brown. I thought the carry split between him and the other Miami backs was too uneven. The minor downgrade left him tied for RB14 with Brandon Jacobs. But I'm not a huge fan of ties, and want to make a choice. I know how I'm leaning, but what say you Pancake Blockers?
June 05, 2007
This entry and my column today wraps up our Minicamp Tour that has taken place all over the Rotoworld/NBCSports.com family of networks over the last few weeks.
I'll get back to regular blog topics over the next few weeks while we polish off our second magazine. OTA and minicamp season will wrap up for the most part before the end of June in anticipation of the only truly "dead" time of the NFL calendar leading into training camp in late July.
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Craig Davis has impressed at early Chargers workouts, justifying for now a pick that surprised most analysts in April. San Diego has been looking for someone to replace Eric Parker in the starting lineup for a while, and Davis should fit the bill by 2008. He and Vincent Jackson would make for one of the most physical starting wideout combinations in the league. … This is a good season to grab Antonio Gates. His ADP will sink a round or so based on a slightly-down 2006 season. But the Chargers are planning to line him up out wide more often, and there is still a serious gap between Gates and the second-best fantasy tight end. … One slight concern for LaDainian Tomlinson owners will be whether San Diego tries to get their “money’s worth” out of Michael Turner this year. It would make sense to lighten LT2’s heavy load, especially early in the season, in anticipation of a playoff run. … IDP owners looking for value should focus on Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm, San Diego’s new starting inside linebackers. The scheme will make them look great, and their relative no-name status will keep them undervalued.
Who might be the next Mike Bell?
Broncos offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger can envision Daniel Graham catching 55 passes this season. His high was 38 in New England and he’ll be competing with Tony Scheffler for tight end targets in Denver, but there is potential for Graham to matter. His hands improved as a Patriot (to just-below-average) and he’s a better downfield threat than you’d think. A lot depends on Scheffler’s foot. If the second-year pro is 100% before Week 1, I think the tight ends might cancel each other out. … Brandon Marshall will start the offseason in the starting lineup as Rod Smith recovers from hip surgery. If Marshall plays to his potential, he shouldn’t lose the job all season. … Deep leaguers should take note: Cecil Sapp has converted from fullback and is now Denver’s third tailback behind Travis Henry and Mike Bell. The Broncos tend to have fantasy stars emerge from nowhere (Bell, Reuben Droughns), so he’s worth keeping an eye on.
June 04, 2007
Trent Green doesn’t believe he has a “fair chance to compete” in Kansas City because Herm Edwards told him that someone would have to beat out Brodie Croyle by a wide margin to secure the starting job. That’s sobering news for the Damon Huard fan club, of which I’m a member. It should also be a warning to those still ranking Larry Johnson second in fantasy leagues. It’s hard to score touchdowns with a bottom-five passing game. I hope Croyle proves me wrong, but he’s fighting an uphill battle considering the re-made offensive line and young receiver group.
Edwards mentions Jeff Webb and Chris Hannon every chance he gets. First-round pick Dwayne Bowe may very well be the team’s Week One starter, but he may rotate snaps with the second-year players. If Croyle starts for most of the year, I doubt any receiver on the Chiefs will be consistent. Even Eddie Kennison may be an end-of-the-bench fantasy guy. ... With Larry Johnson a risk to break down, keep an eye on the battle for his backup spot. It wouldn't be a shock if rookie Kolby Smith got the nod due to Michael Bennett's durability issues.
June 01, 2007
It’s a mystery who will be the Week 1 starting quarterback in Oakland next year. Some reports have said Josh McCown is locked into the role, but the Oakland Tribune thought Andrew Walter was ahead of him at minicamps. Neither player has much NFL success, so the coaching staff could get impatient quickly and throw JaMarcus Russell into the mix.
I’ve heard multiple outlets scoff at the starting combination of Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter, as if the Raiders are somehow going to be in trouble without a jogging Randy Moss and Alvis Whitted. Curry and Porter are an above-average duo and would produce 1,000-yard seasons in the right offense. I projected nearly 1,800 yards between them initially, but I’m a little nervous that the quarterback situation will sink the whole operation. … One thing the starters shouldn’t worry about is their teammates stealing receptions. Travis Taylor is probably the favorite for the third receiver role and is the definition of replacement level. Mike Williams could get bumped off the team if he doesn’t get healthy soon.
LaMont Jordan has reportedly looked solid at early OTAs catching the football. He needs to impress the new staff fast to get ahead of Dominic Rhodes and eventually Michael Bush. Bush won’t be ready for full contact work until training camp at the earliest. The Raiders are one of the key teams to watch in August because so much is uncertain.
LenDale White finally returned to practice Thursday, just in time for practices to end for three weeks. May stories tend to fade, so I’m more concerned with what Jeff Fisher thinks of him in mid-August. White's inactivity gave rookie Chris Henry a chance to show what he can do.
Keyshawn Johnson’s retirement is rough news for Vince Young. With an inexperienced wideout group, Young will be forced to rely on tight ends Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe. Scaife is solid, but has faded late in the season twice in a row. Troupe is in a contract year and has been a disappointment despite similar skills to Ben Watson. Tennessee’s roster demands that Troupe get one more shot, so we’re not giving up on him yet.
Brandon Jones is the only Tennessee wideout worth drafting. If I had to guess the other Week 1 starter, I’d say it will be either Courtney Roby or Roydell Williams. Williams is reportedly having a fine offseason. Justin Gage and rookie Paul Williams are also in the mix. David Givens looks likely to start the year on the PUP list and could miss the whole year. The Titans are doing their best to stack the deck against Young.
May 31, 2007
Is Jones tough enough?
Matt Jones is getting a reputation in Jacksonville for being soft. Lower leg injuries continue to bother the former quarterback, as he missed three weeks of OTA work because of hamstring injuries. Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford surprisingly opened the offseason as the team’s starters, which looks like Jack Del Rio trying to send a message to Jones. It doesn’t appear to have taken hold.
My initial projections for Jones were optimistic, but our buddy Mike Dempsey at 1010XL in Jacksonville doesn’t believe he’ll ever be consistent. Dempsey has kicked my fantasy teams around enough to listen closely. He also believes Mike Walker, the team’s third-round pick, has a big future with the team. Walker had a setback in his recovery from his ACL surgery that may slow down his rookie year, but he could start in 2008. When you throw Dennis Northcutt into the mix, it’s quite possible all the Jacksonville receivers will cancel each other out. Again.
The friction between Byron Leftwich and Jack Del Rio is getting a lot of attention in the press, but it’s not a huge story. Leftwich will have the job if healthy. Staying on the field has been his biggest problem the last two years.
May 30, 2007
Avoiding offseason hype is a habit of a successful fantasy leaguer. With that in mind, it’s best to try to ignore the buzz machine in Houston surrounding the new Matt Schaub-led passing game. Schaub is reportedly picking up the offense well, but Gary Kubiak was positive about David Carr at this time a year ago. Be especially leery of the puff pieces surrounding Kevin Walter, Houston’s new number two receiver. The guy has 47 career catches in four seasons. He’s a great blocker and willing learner, but that doesn’t show up in the box score.
Daniels may be the team's second best receiver
When Jacoby Jones was drafted, I thought the Lane University third-rounder would be the favorite to start opposite Andre Johnson. Early minicamp reports suggest Jones will take time to adjust to the NFL, which isn’t a huge surprise. It would surprise if Walter is still starting in Week 17. It would also surprise me if any Texan receiver besides Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels are worth owning in 12-team leagues this season. Even Daniels is borderline in a crowded tight end field. Jerome Mathis is struggling with hamstring issues again and Andre’ Davis has been dropped by three teams in three teams. This squad reminds me a lot of the Bills receiver group - one truly great young star and a whole lot of filler.
May 29, 2007
This man needs a backup
Note:I started a team-by-team look at minicamp season in my column today. I'll finish the rest of the AFC here on the blog this week.
I have been driving the DeDe Dorsey bandwagon since mentioning him on the Fantasy Fix and an Offseason Lowdown column in March, and there is still plenty of room available. But it's starting to get a little more crowded.
After an Indiana News article called Dorsey and CFL star Kelton Keith co-favorites for the number two job in Indianapolis, Colts.com admits Dorsey is the favorite. The second-year pro impressed at the team's recent minicamp and has the versatility the Colts look for. While the team won't employ a straight commmittee approach like last year, the backup to Joseph Addai will probably get more work than your average handcuff. And since we're talking about the best offense in football, any backup to Addai will be a major late-round sleeper. ... Owners looking for a reason to believe the Colts passing game can improve this year should look no further than their defense. On paper, it could be worse than the unit that forced Peyton Manning to pass like crazy last year. 575 pass attempts is possible, which would lead to bigger numbers for Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne. ... Anthony Gonzalez missed the team's mandatory minicamp because of an NFL Rookie event. He should slot into the third receiver role before long, but keep an eye on Roy Hall, his old teammate at Ohio State. Hall is 240 pounds and will probably be converted into a catch-first tight end. Perhaps he'll give Dallas Clark a run for his job in a year.
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