Gregg raised a good point about job security with his Shaun Hill post earlier today. Which other quarterbacks will have to win early in the season in order to keep their jobs?
No-Brainers:
Kyle Orton, Broncos – Far from a lock to be a long-term answer in Denver, Orton’s contract is up after the season and Josh McDaniels could go in another direction.
Chad Pennington, Dolphins – The Miami papers have been all over this one. Chad Henne is ready, Penny is a poor bet to stay healthy and his contract is up after the season.
Jason Campbell, Redkins – The Redskins refuse to commit to Campbell beyond ’09. Another stretch of games like the second half of last season will land him on the bench.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders – Russell will start Week 1 regardless of preseason performance, but Jeff Garcia is looming if the offense stumbles out of the gate.
Shaun Hill – When you look at his performance and won-loss record, Hill has earned a long look. Alex Smith, though, has better tools and is the apple of the GM’s eye.
Gregg Rosenthal and I made two preseason bets last year. The one I lost was total fantasy points between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Though I remained a true Ronnie Brown believer before he exploded in the first seven games of 2007, I strictly adhere to the "Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule."
When Brown, Philip Rivers, and Carlos Rogers were all enjoying early-season success last fall, Gregg and I also discussed how much ACL surgery has evolved in just the past 5-10 years. No longer a death sentence for football players, it appears to be a mere hiccup.
What you missed when you were out drinking with your friends ...
This one was actually from last Thursday, but a great State of the Romo piece by Matt Mosley. I hate how good writers like Mosley get buried on ESPN.com's "blog" format because I usually miss stuff like this. Most interesting passage:
He has some remarkable leadership qualities and he's a tireless worker. Unfortunately, though, he's not much of a listener. It's great to be able to tune out distractions, but Romo runs the risk of tuning out everyone. Since Parcells, Sparano and former quarterbacks coach David Lee have left the building, Romo doesn't have anyone willing to put him in his place.
With the sun beginning to set on Tuesday, leaving just four days until the start of the 2009 NFL Draft, Phil comes through in the clutch with his prediction/recommendation for Bill Parcells' Fins at No. 25.
The Miami Dolphins are perhaps the neediest 11-5 team ever. Miami could use a WR to line up opposite of Ted Ginn, a SOLB to help the pass rush opposite of Joey Porter, a starting CB to fill the void when Andre' Goodman left, a stud NT to be Jason Ferguson's heir, and a thumper at ILB. Looking at the board at #25, Miami could go WR with Hakeem Nicks, CB with Sean Smith or Alphonso Smith, or OLB with Clint Sintim or Connor Barwin.
Sintim is probably the safest pick here having come from a 3-4 system and would be the prototypical SOLB to line up opposite of Porter. This would allow Cam Wake to slide into the backup WOLB role and learn for a year behind Porter.
With Goodman leaving, Eric Green signed as a journeyman, Will Allen's contract expiring next year, and 1st round bust Jason Allen at CB, Miami's biggest need is at CB. However Miami does have two 2nd round picks and could address whatever need isn't filled in the 1st round there. With a few CBs that are still attractive on board that should be available in the 2nd round, I'm going to roll the dice and select the safest player, which is OLB Clint Sintim.
Coach Tony Sparano confirmed Tuesday at the Owners' Meetings that the Dolphins consider Chad Henne their quarterback of the future and plan to play him extensively this preseason. Chad Pennington will start Week 1, barring injury, but Henne seems all but sure to see the field as a sophomore.
The No. 57 overall pick in 2008, Henne played in Lloyd Carr's pro-style offense at Michigan and was expected to adjust to the NFL game quickly. He beat out John Beck for primary backup duty, although Pennington was too steady for an in-season switch.
Miami has made no attempt to extend Pennington's contract, which runs only through 2009, and is not expected to do so this offseason. Pennington, 33 in June, posted a solid 19:7 TD to INT ratio last year. He was the runner-up for MVP voting in a decidedly poor year for MVP candidates. (FWIW, my pick would've been Adrian Peterson over Peyton Manning.)
Each week, I write up some borderline plays for a NBC P.R. release promoting Sunday Night Football. When I'm not too stuffed from eating late at my wife's place of work, I post them here.
Chad Pennington vs. Chiefs: The only quarterback Kansas City has held under 250 yards in the last eight games is JaMarcus Russell.
Brett Favre vs. Sea: Despite recent struggles, Favre should bounce back against the easiest defense in the league to score fantasy points against.
Kevin Smith vs. Lions: Saints The rookie is still running like his pants are on fire, regardless of the team's record. The Saints have nothing to play for.
By the time the fantasy playoffs hit, the waiver wire is usually not that useful. This week is an exception to that rule. With injuries to significant running backs, most playoff teams can still upgrade their rosters this week. Kellen Winslow's injury Both Tashard Choice and Brandon Jackson have a legitimate chance to start this week. Marion Barber's status looks shakier than Ryan Grant's, but Jackson would still be my pick. I like what I've seen from Choice and Jackson recently, but Jackson's matchups (Houston, Jacksonville) are far better than Choice's (Pittsburgh, NYG). It's hard to imagine any playoff team actually starting Choice, no matter what happens with MBIII.
Jackson is not the same guy that was a fantasy bust last season. He's improved in the pass game. He's more decisive with his cuts. The big-play ability is there. IF Grant is out, which I still don't expect, Jackson will be a top-20 play this week. Some other waiver options this week ...
From the same people who brought you Lance Moore, but didn't expect him to be remotely as good as he is, we humbly submit Dolphins receiver Devone Bess for your roster consideration. Bess is an undrafted rookie, which is rarely profitable in fantasy leagues, but it's clear he's a football player in the Parcellsiest sense of the word.
We've heard a lot about Bess all year in the Miami papers, and he's finally had the chance to produce the last two weeks: 14 targets, 8 targets, and 137 yards. With Greg Camarillo out for the season, Bess is the logical replacement to take over his possession receiver duties. Bess isn't tall or fast, but neither was Camarillo. They are both tough as Lance.
I went back to watch Bess' targets the last two weeks. He caught every one that was catchable. He fights to get high passes in traffic. He takes a hit and holds on to the ball, which comes in handy when Chad Pennington is throwing floaters your way. He catches the ball with his hands, which is another thing Pennington will remember after Ted Ginn dropped two crucial passes late last week. He converts third downs (3-of-4 last week for 61 yards.)
Bess was drawing linebackers and safeties before, so he'll have to beat better coverage now. Luckily he gets the Rams, Bills, and 49ers coming up. This post wouldn't exist if the schedule was harder. You'd have to be desperate to actually use Bess this week, but I know a lot of desperate owners out there. You could do worse if you are in a pinch for a WR3, especially in PPR leagues.
The earlier poll was such a massive hit, let's do it again.
One of the parts I love about this job is how much value can change in a week. Seven days ago, I'm pretty sure every Ronnie Brown owner would have dealt him for a young, rising star like Jonathan Stewart. After Stewart was stuffed by the Vikings and Ronnie went wild, it's a closer call.
These are two of my favorite players. I tried to remain steadfast in my belief of Brown's abilities during the preseason Ricky Williams hype, and it's great to see him recovering all his skills. But how high is his ceiling? Will the Dolphins staff let him be a true lead back? Who will get more touches the rest of the way: Stewart or Brown?
That's a lot of questions. You can answer by choosing below. My gut says Stewart's ceiling for 2008 is a little higher. I like the offense around him better, especially the line. These are both low RB2 players who should prove to be good draft values, but my money is on Stewart being more consistent.
1. Maybe they were fluky: Anthony Fasano didn’t have a catch Sunday. Dante Rosario only had a six-yard catch. Randy McMichael had two catches for 24 yards.
2. Marvin Harrison owners should be concerned that he’s pouting like the playoffs and that Anthony Gonzalez looks like the better player.
3. Reggie, Reggie, Reggie is averaging 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season. The receiving numbers and punt return touchdown absolutely save him, especially in PPR leagues, but let’s not get carried away talking about his maturation just yet.
4. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood learned what life can be like with a rookie quarterback facing a real NFL defense. They went from 313 yards and three scores to 60 yards. Thud.
Ah, the adventures of Ricky and Ronnie. We've had fun following these two from summer workouts in shorts to training camp battles. Stocks have risen, stocks have fallen. And for what?
Through two games, Ricky's numbers : 21 carries 52 yards and five catches for 16 yards. And three fumbles!
Ronnie Brown: 17 carries, 48 yards, one garbage time touchdown and five catches for 47 yards.
I may be winning my personal Ronnie vs. Ricky bet with an unnamed Rotoworld write, but what's the point? This team could run the ball better when Cam Cameron was in town. What in the name in Hudson Houck getting fired is going on around here? I'm not lucid enough at this hour to answer my own rhetorical questions. Thank you all.
1. The Cardinals quarterback decision won't be officially decided until Saturday at the earliest. Matt Leinart did well Friday, but Warner is still the likely pick.
2. Ben Obomanu, sleeper no more. That cements Courtney Taylor's starting job and gets Logan Payne on the team.
3. Darius Walker and Marcel Shipp are out in Houston, which is good news for Chris Taylor. Chris Brown could get axed today.
The Fantasy Fix Dolphins preview is up, complete with an awesome cameo from Ronnie Brown to start off the show. Brown has been the subject of some debate at Rotoworld headquarters. (Okay, I never actually see Evan Silva, Patrick Dahl, and Chris Wesseling. But we IM debate aggressively!). Will Ricky Williams split carries with him simply to start the year and then fade into a backup role? Or will this be an equal share all year? Will both of them stay healthy at the same time enough for it to matter? Is Ted Ginn only worth taking in leagues that award points for return yardage, like one I drafted this week?
It's that time of year. Depth charts are coalescing. Decisions are being made. Starters will actually play some extended minutes this week. The season is so close, you can smell the point spreads.
Tony Sparano, who is presiding over an entertaining camp in Miami, said it best when describing his decision to give Chad Pennington and Chad Henne all the snaps at practice recently.
"We're kind of out of the hurtin'-people's-feelings business right now. We're getting into the real deal."
And the real deal doesn't include a whole lot of Josh McCown, John Beck, and Ernest Wilford.
Terry Glenn is no longer a Cowboy, which solidifies Patrick Crayton’s value as a starter in Dallas. Crayton was inconsistent on a weekly basis last year, but he put up WR3 numbers and is a fine pick for depth in fantasy leagues. I like him as a WR4 because he's not steady enough to us each week. Miles Austin and Sam Hurd will battle for the third receiver job. Perhaps Glenn will reunite with Bill Parcells in Miami, who could use some receiver depth.
Apologies for the error on this post earlier. Had to delete it, including the funny comments. Our system went a little nutty.
The 2008 football season started, appropriately, on a Sunday. The Redskins began training camp yesterday, and lost one of their key defensive pieces, Philip Daniels, for the season. By the end of the day, they had acquired Jason Taylor to fill the gap. It's a fine deal for both sides, but it's better for Miami. That's mostly because I don't think Washington will be a contender this season in the toughest division in football.
Jason LaCanfora is all over the Taylor stuff at Redskins Insider, in addition to other Washington news. Antwaan Randle El is healthy again, although we still don't know his role exactly. One point J La raises is Jason Taylor's new position on the left side. That traditionally means fewer sacks. As an IDP owner, I liked him better in Miami. Back with some more links I saw while catching up in a bit.
I've always thought of the McCowns as the white trash Manning brothers. Now it's official.
The Associated Press reports that Josh McCown need six stitches recently because of an accident that occurred at home in Texas. McCown said he was holding up firewood when his brother Luke accidentally cut Josh's finger instead of the firewood.
This McCown-on-McCown violence should be good for a few punchlines (Texas Chainsaw McCown Massacre, anyone?), but there may be legitimate football implications. Josh is locked in a position battle with John Beck to be Miami's starting quarterback, and the injury was to McCown's throwing hand. The Palm Beach Post says the recovery could "cloud the picture", but it sounds like they are just speculating.
Luke McCown, who I think will eventually take Jeff Garcia's starting job in Tampa, appears to have escaped unharmed. Which proves the maxim: Be the guy holding the chain saw, not the firewood.
Finishing off another magazine. Unless big news happened, I try not to adjust my projections too much. Often, we can overthink things and tweak too much based on minor news.
One player that got a slight tweak downwards was Ronnie Brown. I thought the carry split between him and the other Miami backs was too uneven. The minor downgrade left him tied for RB14 with Brandon Jacobs. But I'm not a huge fan of ties, and want to make a choice. I know how I'm leaning, but what say you Pancake Blockers?
So Kevin Jones reversed course at the last minute and worked out in front of four NFL teams Saturday: Detroit, Miami, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. Cleveland reportedly asked for a tape of the proceedings. Now it appears Tampa is in the mix or at least Jones is interested in them. I touched on the topic in my minicamp notes some, but here is what we know about Jones.
With Evan Silva out of town, I've been filling in on the regular news page, so apologies for the quiet blog. Here were some links frm the morning I found interesting ...
Ronnie Brown's recovery continues to progress
The Dolphins are buying what Tony Sporano is selling. I like the Dolphins to "surprise" some people this year by gutting out six-to-seven wins or so.
The Jake Plummer saga in Tampa is done. Basically, the Bucs traded a late seventh-round pick for $3.5 million. That's a deal every owner in the league would welcome. Chris Simms also doesn't sound long for Tampa, taking shots at his head coach in the Tampa papers.
First things first: No pun intended with the title.
I have to admit I'm a sucker for Ricky Williams. He passes the test I have with movies; I consider one worthwhile If I've never seen any like it. And there is only one Ricky Williams.
It's the final night before a deadline, the ass-crack of dawn approaches, and yet it's just another night for the usual Rotoworld night owls. Pouliot is still cranking out blurbs on the greatest Single-A prospects, while Evan Silva has posted nine football items since midnight. I ask him why, and he says, "I can't sleep."
People always ask how they can get into fantasy writing. Be the type of person that wakes up to post blurbs at 3:30 AM because you can't help yourself. That's why Silva makes the Godzilla bankroll.
***
One of the big themes of this magazine and draft season is the questionable RB2s available. There are plenty of guys who look like solid values in the third or fourth round, but it's hard to choose any worthy of RB13-15 status. Ronnie Brown is one of my favorite candidates, but this article about Ricky Williams partially confirms my worst fears: Ronnie could be heading for a committee. Despite his claims, Ricky will not be a calming influence on Brown owners.
It makes sense. Brown hasn't topped 275 touches in his career. It would be asking a lot for him to carry the whole load in his first season after ACL surgery. Ricky, of course, is an even bigger question mark. But if Williams can stay healthy, look for Brown to ease into life under Tony Sparano. If he shows that he's strong enough, perhaps he'll get more carries as the season wears on.
What a day. Honestly I'm buried in other work (maybe taking this Managing Editor means way more responsibility. Hmmm ... ). But I can't pass up commenting on some of the big stories of the day. No matter how much my time is supposed to be spent on other things.
God bless Jeff Ireland if he was intentially messing with the media when he used the "pillar of defense" line. I still think he's just not experienced speaking publicly and it was a slip of the tongue.
I like how confident the Dolphins were that Jake Long was a left tackle. No doubt in their mind. They almost were incredulous at the line of questioning. I trust the judgement of Tony Sparano and Bill Parcells. And making Long the first pick as a left tackle makes more sense.
Tom Curran was up here at work today for a Mock Draft video we are taping, so I asked him about his report regarding Jake Long. Treating draft news skeptically this week is always a good idea, but that doesn't mean the report should be dismissed. The indications are strong and varied Miami is getting close. That doesn't mean they are close necessarily, but they are making sure that information is out there.
PFT's Mike Florio thinks it's all a smokescreen to get another player to jump, probably Vernon Gholston. We'll find out the truth this week, but don't assume it will be before Saturday. And then a week from now, we'll forget all about this. The beauty of Draft week.
And I've sent an email to the Jaguars pick owner, and have a backup in place if we need it.
Mock Drafts aren't usually built on original thought. They primarily look at other Mock Drafts, switch some names, teams, and needs around, and go from there. Even draftniks who spend the college season following the players tend to have similar rankings because they read each other, but don't know what NFL scouts are seeing or saying.
I've been sold on Mike Mayock's mock drafts since 2005, when he had Aaron Rodgers falling all the way to number 25 to the Packers. It's not just that he nailed a pick absolutely no one saw coming, it's that he had the confidence and research to make his own decision instead of following the masses. His pipeline to NFL teams probably doesn't hurt. He revealed his first top-ten Mock picks last week and there were a few stunners that should be taken seriously. Let's take a look ...
Today was the first day that teams could release players for the 2008 season, and Dolphins Kingpins Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland wasted no time. Here's what it all means.
1. John Beck is a lonely man
He has to be cleared medically to play again, which seems far from certain. If he gets clearance, he has to find a team that wants him. Baltimore and St. Louis are two possibilities. With Cleo Lemon headed for free agency, the Dolphins basically have only John Beck at quarterback. Quincy Carter, send in your resume!
2. That he's a tough-talking Parcells disciple. Early indications are that the pressers could be entertaining.
3. As an old line coach, the big uglies up front are going to be very important to him. And he doesn't have a bad group to work with. Samson Satele is a promising center. Miami's offensive line was perhaps the team's greatest strength in 2008.
4. When Sparano called plays for Parcells in 2006, the Cowboys finished fourth in points and fifth in yards. They leaned towards the run, but not dramatically. Their reliance on the deep ball led to finishing fourth in yards-per-attempt despite it being the final days of Drew Bledsoe and the first starts for Tony Romo.
This is one the key news weeks of the offseason, as we comb through the papers to get indications of where teams will head this offseason before everyone leaves this building. Here are some of interesting nuggets I saw this morning.
* From the Miami Herald, some of the thinking behind Cam Cameron's impending firing:
Anyone else think it's odd that Bill Parcells' introductory news conference is built so perfectly into Sportscenter's open? The second the anchor was done with the introduction, it was like the ESPN director cued Parcells to walk out. Of all of Parcells' great traints, controlling the media (and message) is near the top.
The rankings are up, the Fix is taped, and we're back at Pancake Blocks after a couple holiday half-days. Week 17 ahoy!
I am going to try to avoid looking at next year this week. We have all offseason to review '07 and look ahead to '08, and there are still plenty of fantasy championships this week, whether it's a good idea or not. Let's start with some quickie lists of guys likely to see a spike in value this week.
It's never boring with Ricky, is it? Just six carries into his latest comeback, Ricky is out for the season with a torn chest muscle. The injury reportedly occured when Steelers LB Lawrence TImmons stepped on Williams' shoulder blade.
There are a lot of ways to measure how disappointing top-shelf running backs have been this season,. Here's one that sticks out to me: Ronnie Browns is still ranked in the top-ten backs of the year.
He's ninth in standard scoring and seventh in points-per-reception leagues. Since you could use his starting spot in the last five weeks, it's easy to make the case that Ronnie is still among the Fantasy MVPs this season.
If you are in position to make the fantasy playoffs, you shouldn't be desperate enough to need Patrick Cobbs or Fred Jackson.
Cobbs carried the load for Miami last night when Jesse Chatman and Ricky Williams were hurt, and has a great matchup on paper next week against the Jets. And while Cobbs could be worth a flier in the deepest of leagues, the most likely outcome in Miami is that Williams, Chatman, or both will be back in the lineup by Sunday.
I feel the same way about the Buffalo situation. If Anthony Thomas is out, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Wright will probably split carries against the Redskins. That's not worth investing a roster spot in. Just wait for Thomas or Marshawn Lynch to return and roll with what you have.
Watching tonight's game, it's hard not to think about the last time a Miami-Pittsburgh game was delayed by weather. This was in 2004, when Hurricane Jeanne turned the Week 3 contest into a night game played in sloppy conditions. The Dolphins had Dave Wannstedt as their coach, A.J. Feeley as their quarterback, and Leonard Henry as their starting running back. Ricky Williams's excellent yoga adventure was just getting started.
That was Ben Roethlisberger's first NFL start, and the Super Bowl Champion Steelers often cited that weekend in retrospect as a pivotal time because of the bonding that took place while waiting out the storm in the team hotel. There wasn't a touchdown scored that night until the fourth quarter, when Ben Roethlisberger hit a diving Hines Ward in the corner of the end zone.
The way the field looks tonight, we could be looking at a similar lack of scoring.
Rotoworld news monster Evan Silva has the Ricky Williams situation well covered in Last Minute Decisions (which really you need to be reading every week if you love football.)
It made me realize I overlooked one key update to the rankings: What to do with Ricky? I don't want to start Jesse Chatman or Ricky Monday night, but if you are desperate to fill your flex position, don't view Williams as a huge downgrade if Chatman is out.
It doesn't sound good so far for Marshawn Lynch owners. With a Sunday night game, you should look for other options. And I don't mean Anthony Thomas.
It looks like Ricky will probably remain a Dolphin. It's amazing that Ricky has lasted long enough to see three coaching staffs (Dave Wannstedt, Nick Saban, Cam Cameron) and three decision makers in the front office (Rick Spielman, Saban, Randy Mueller - his old New Orleans GM).
It's not a great sign when Williams becomes one of the most stable parts of your organization.
First things first. I don't think Ricky Williams will have a major impact on fantasy football this season. He's thirty years old and hasn't played football all year. By the time he's in football shape, the fantasy season will be over. And Williams will probably be a backup no matter where he plays. With that said, he's worth a look in very deep leagues where you can afford a flier. Let's rank my top-five most likely destinations for Williams.
5. St. Louis - Scott Linehan has coached Ricky before and seems open to coaching him again. But do the Rams really need a veteran backup that badly? They'd probably rather develop Antonio Pittman and Brian Leonard.
4. New England - Bill Belichick probably doesn't care about Ricky's negative perception around the league. He knows through Nick Saban and many AFC East games what kind of player Williams can be. With that said, I just don't think the Patriots will feel their need is big enough at running back to bother. Is he really that much better than Corey Dillon?
3. Denver - Mike Shanahan wouldn't relish the P.R. hit he'd take going from Travis Henry to Ricky Williams, but that's never stopped him from taking chances before. The Broncos have shown interest in Ricky in the past.
Our friends at FootballDiner.com disagree. They are an England-based NFL fan website and are all over the Giants-Dolphins game with more original photos (including a rare Tom Coughlin smile) and interviews than Rotoworld has put together in five years. Kudos.
I imagine Chris Chambers owners were relatively happy with him so far this season. He was drafted as a WR3 and has performed like one. A year after gaining only 677 yards all season, he was on pace to top 1,100 for only the second time in his career. He hasn't scored, but surely that was coming. The status quo was going fine.
Following today's trade to the Chargers, owners are probably wondering what exactly they have. Instead of a target-hogging number one receiver, I see Chambers as a co-number two in San Diego alongside Vincent Jackson, but behind Antonio Gates. The Chargers throw less than the Dolphins, so Chambers will see a smaller share of a smaller pie.
* Cleo Lemon played well in relief of Trent Green, but didn't put many points on the board. I checked my notes from last year, and found the same notes on Lemon. He takes the check down, he looks calm, and he's can zip the ball in there at any level. He's just not particularly aggressive. Maybe time will help. I think Ronnie Brown's excellent season is going to open up opportunities with the play-action passing game.
Here are some of the game notes from this week I couldn't shoehorn into Goal Line Stand this week.
* The Texans have a high-percentage, low risk passing attack, but Matt Schaub isn't afraid to stretch the field when he gets a chance. Andre Davis caught a bomb early against the Dolphins, and Kevin Walter was targeted on two looong passes. It's a good sign for Walter that he was targeted on the first three plays of the game and deep so often. He's shown more in the last two weeks than he did in the first four seasons as a career.
I don't like any of these guys against the Jaguars this week, but the success of the Texans depth shows that this offense has turned a corner and will be dangerous when everyone is healthy. It's to Gary Kubiak's credit that Andre Davis looks suddenly relevant.
Busy morning today, while I get Goal Line Stand ready and tape a Fantasy Fix. I'll get back to some top-ten moving forward rankings and respond to some questions about the running backs in the afternoon, but first a word from Channing Crowder.
"He's still limping around,'' said Crowder, when asked about former teammate Culpepper. ``He's not 100 percent. He's still not the Daunte Culpepper of back with Minnesota.''
We need more genuine trash talking like this instead of the Chad Johnson jokefests (which I almost like). It's a true grudge match. It almost makes me want to watch Dolphins game to see how Culpepper fares in his first start as a Raider.
Joey Porter, not to be outdone, repeatedly said, "We will win Sunday.''
This is a rare game where an NFC team is a road favorite (and by more than a field goal). The matchup features each team’s strengths and weakness facing one another. The consistent Miami defense under Dom Capers defense takes on the Tony Romo show. Dallas’ rag-tag secondary tries to survive against Trent Green’s still-forming pass attack.
QB: Tony Romo: Must Play - The Cowboys are a big-play team. With Yeremiah Bell out for the year, the Dolphins should be vulnerable to some.
RB: Julius Jones: Strong Flex Play - Miami knew Washington was going to pound the ball, and they didn’t exactly stop Clinton Portis. Still, Miami’s strength should be their rush defense. The Cowboys say they will use Jones around the goal line more often, so we’ll have to see if it happens.
RB: Marion Barber: Strong Flex Play - I don’t love either Dallas running back as a RB2 in this matchup, but they are worth playing as flex options.
WR: Terrell Owens: Must Play - T.O. is a strong choice for our “perfect picks” on the 100K most weeks because he’s the favorite to lead all wideouts in touchdowns. Miami doesn’t have anyone who can physically match up with him.
Every NFL week is full of surprises; the ones early in the year just get more attention. Here's a quick list of players I'm watching closely this week.
1. Marshawn Lynch - After watching the Shortcuts of this game, I'm pretty sure he's for real. You can't teach breaking tackles. A good game against Pittsburgh would solidify his RB2 status.
2. Chris Brown - The Titans offensive line was fierce. Let's see if they can blow up the Colts.
3. Jaguars runners - Their offensive line got pushed around. Look for a better effort against the Falcons.
4. Saints offense - I know it was only one game. But I still want to see what they do against the Bucs.
Thanks for the feedback on Waiver Wired, which is up. Between some Season Pass work (coming today, people) and Tuesday's Fix, I didn't have time to add Jesse Chatman. Until now.
Chatman's talent level is is suspect, but he knows Cam Cameron's system and is going to get carries. If I was forced to use a waiver pickup in my Week 1 lineup for some reason (and good luck if you do), Chatman would get the call over Kenton Keith, Selvin Young, and the rest. That doesn't mean he'll be a better prospect over the full season than Young because the Miami offense is suspect, but he's certainly safer. For now, he looks like a competent RB4. Anyone that gets carries is worth owning over the Maurice Morris' of the world.
It comes down to what your team is looking for. On a thin roster where you need depth to possibly use for bye weeks, Chatman is a good pickup. If you are four strong at running back, I'd go with a higher ceiling back like Young or possibly Keith.
And thanks for being patient Pancake Blockers, the blog will be humming consistently all week long, including a Thursday Night liveblog
Monday was not a good morning for Ronnie Brown supporters, owners, and relatives. The Miami Herald said the starting job in Miami was an "unexpectedly open competition" between Ronnie Brown and ... Jesse freaking Chatman. Dolphins coach Cam Cameron cited Brown's relative inexperience in career carries, going back to Auburn.
Cameron wasn't happy that Brown couldn't score in the open field, a legitimate gripe, saying in another Herald article, "The expectation is when you're in the open field, that better be a house call. Everybody wants that.''
I looked at the Kansas City quarterback battle already, but here are some other notes from the Chiefs/Dolphins game. Since Rotoworld loves branding, the game notes will forever more be called "Skinny Posts."
* Trent Green had a better effort and moved the ball. But the Dolphins really focused on short drops and throws to make up for their offensive line. When Green tried to set up deep, he still didn't have much time. You wonder if that will affect Chris Chambers' ability to go deep.
* Cleo Lemon (8/11-52-0-0) also moved the offense early and finds open receivers underneath. But the Dolphins look like they are settling on Green. I have a feeling Miami will need multiple starting quarterbacks this year because of their line.
I thought it would be interesting to add up Brodie Croyle's combined numbers as a pro, adding up this year's preaseason snaps with last year's regular season and preseason.
CP-ATT-YD-TD-INT
20-42-213-1-5
Admittedly, it's a small sample size, mostly in games that don't count. But don't the Chiefs have to see something from Croyle in game action before making him a starter?
Very interesting game from a fantasy perspective on ESPN tonight. Two teams, Miami and Kansas City, that have as many questions on offense as anyone. Both quarterback jobs are up for grabs, plus rookies like Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn, and Kolby Smith can help their chances for playing time with positive outings.
* The Chiefs game and the practices between the Bengals and Saints remind me that "camp" is already ending for some teams. Many of the squads like Kansas City, Tampa, New Orleans, and Cincy that travel away from home will now return for regular practice at their home practice field. I personally applaud this passage of time. I'm already forgetting what the "offseason" was like, and by next week will be more than ready to get the real stuff going.
I broke out the preseason notebook Tuesday with the Falcons/Jets. Let me know if this is the type of thing you guys like in the future. Here goes a few notes from the Lions-Bengals and Jaguars-Dolphins.
Jaguars-Dolphins
* Miami's young offensive line was manhandled by Jacksonville. It was like they weren't there. Trent Green had some ugly throws, but no one would have played well. This could be a rare case of the preseason showing something if the trend continues. If Miami's line gets pushed around like this all August, I'd consider downgrading Ronnie Brown.
* Cleo Lemon threw a few beautiful passes, but they were against third-teamers. He needs a monster game this week for a chance to start, but he's still a big long shot.
# 24: Dolphins backup quarterback: Cleo Lemon vs. John Beck
Beck is the favorite, and likely the future starting quarterback in Miami. Since he's already 26 years old, the Dolphins will want to get him some starts late in the season if they are out of contention. That said, Lemon was fairly impressive in his appearances late last season and has played in Cam Cameron’s system. This battle could loom large if Trent Green gets his eggs scrambled again.
Criticizing the Sopranos series finale is like a Patriots fan questioning a Bill Belichick decision. I can't do it. It's not my place to doubt a near-genius at the top of his craft. The Sopranos was the greatest filmed entertainment I've ever seen, an 86-hour dissection of family, life in the 2000's, everything. The fact that it ended, like many of their episodes, on an existentialist bent, doesn't surprise me. I think the stunning two episodes leading up to the finale raised expectations too much for a bloody finale. David Chase usually fired his big guns before the last shows, when you least expected it, and that was the case in the amazing last season. I'm thankful we were able to watch it so long.
As I wonder if A.J. ever gets a chance to be the next great D movie producer, here were the links I found on a quiet Football Monday morning ...
Miami had their minicamp this weekend. Cam Cameron is rightly talking about a youth movement. That means two rookie starters on the offensive line. It also means Derek Hagan, suddenly Cameron's pet project, is going to get playing time. Hagan has a lot of potential. He makes the spectacular grab, but drops the easy one. I could see Miami getting rid of Marty Booker before the season and handing Hagan the starting job if he progresses.
Booker in trouble?
Ted Ginn is another candidate for the starting job. After all the concerns about his foot, he was reportedly flying by defenders at minicamp. Cameron compared him to Desmond Howard, which I'm not sure is a good thing. For fantasy leaguers, I wouldn't expect much out of Ginn as a rookie.
Daunte Culpepper is tired of being traded. So he's doing his best to make sure one doesn't happen.
“All I’m going to say to any team that’s interested in my services, just sit tight. Because I’m not going to agree to a trade," Culpepper said.
Cam Cameron practically admitted the Dolphins had a deal for Culpepper.
"There’s some things that Randy’s working on that if I comment could jeopardize our ability to work with him. That’s all we can say at this point.”
It's a tricky situation because Culpepper is his own agent. In the end, the Jaguars and the Dolphins could work out a deal, but Culpepper could make it very difficult on all parties by refusing to restructure his contract. I'm not sure Culpepper can really do anything in the end. He's still Miami property, at least for now. The two sides could work out a conditional trade that only goes into affect if Culpepper actually plays for the receiving team, like the Jake Plummer deal earlier this offseason.
We are hearing that Culpepper is headed to the Jaguars through our friend Ryan Houston at FFChamps.com. Any deal would require a physical, and we can't get the news confirmed elsewhere at this point. We will say Houston hasn't steered us wrong before.
If Culpepper was moved, he would provide leverage against Byron Leftwich entering the final year of his contract. Leftwich would remain the heavy favorite to be the team's Week 1 starter, but Culpepper would provide an attractive safety net. First we have to see if the trade actually happens. Then we have to see Culpepper play somewhere near close to 100% on a football field. It's been almost two years since that's happened.
Quiet day on the blog today because of a busy day in the real world. We taped two Fantasy Fix shows and Rotoworld.com has made a long-anticipated move to NBCSports.com's Stamford, CT. world headquarters. So I'm showing everyone where the utensils are stashed. It doesn't help that our Fix crew is moving in slow motion after Tiffany's birthday last night.
Still kept busy on the news page today (Just like a blog, without the mugshot).
It was a rough afternoon for the Dolphins. Daunte Culpepper is asking for his release and slamming the organization for rushing him back from his ACL tear and for droping him now.
Cameron wants no part of Culpepper
Culpepper has a point in relation to last year. It was clear early that Culpepper wasn't right, but he continued to play. He wound up undergoing more intensive surgery in November, the severity of which was covered up by the team. The team's doctors obviously didn't forsee the problems in his rehab before they gave Culpepper a big contract.
Culpepper's issues are in the past, though. Michael Silver's jarring article about the dissension among the Dolphins regarding the Ted Ginn draft pick could actually affect this season.
Ginn has enough pressure and criticism coming from the Miami fanbase and media. Knowing his own teammates don't want him can't help.
"With the ninth pick they took a guy who is basically a kick returner -- a hurt kick returner. Here were are in June, and he hasn't been in camp yet. Maybe he'll come in eventually and become a better route-runner and make some plays. But I couldn't believe it then, and I can't believe it now," defensive tackle Vonnie Holliday said.
Like most people, I was surprised by the Ginn pick. But the torrent of negativity surrounding the selection has been over the top. The two best offensive linemen in the draft were gone. They didn't believe in Brady Quinn. Give Ginn a year or two before calling him a bust.
One part of the Silver article that has to make Miami fans shudder is the line calling John Beck "extremely shaky" in minicamp. That's to be expected from a rookie quarterback, but Beck is the key to Miami's offensive future. Not Ted Ginn.
Miami’s Wideouts – Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, Ted Ginn, and Derek Hagan
Each player here will get a slight upgrade. The group is at risk of canceling each other out in fantasy leagues because they will split up Green’s attention. Green should provide better leadership than the Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington duo of 2006; just don’t expect the improvement to be dramatic.
I still wonder if Booker has a spot on this team if Ginn gets healthy in camp. His release or trade would clear up the picture.
Ronnie Brown
Brown may be the clearest winner in fantasy leagues. The prospect of Cleo Lemon and John Beck starting in Week 1 didn’t bode well for his running lanes. Green should make the Miami passing game respectable, which should take some pressure off Brown.
Chiefs Quarterbacks – Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard
This is what we expected all along, but at least Croyle and Huard will get a bigger share of practice snaps from now on. It’s clear that Herm Edwards wants Croyle to win the starting job, making him the favorite. Huard is coming off a career season and could delay the coronation with a big training camp. Kansas City’s skill players, including Tony Gonzalez, Larry Johnson, and Eddie Kennison, would probably perform better with a veteran at the helm.
Miami Quarterbacks – John Beck, Cleo Lemon, and Daunte Culpepper
Beck can now learn from one of the best as he prepares to take over the Miami job long-term. I expect him to be starting in December if the Dolphins fall out of playoff contention.
Lemon now looks slated to be a career backup. He showed last season that he’s a capable one.
Culpepper is the final part of this equation for fantasy leaguers. The former league MVP runner up is likely to get released or traded for a penny on the dollar in the next few days. Culpepper won’t like it, but he’ll spend his 2007 season rehabbing his image as someone’s backup. Atlanta makes a lot of sense on paper, although the Falcons may be leery of creating any controversy. Jacksonville has been mentioned, but that seems to be asking for trouble. I wouldn’t be shocked if Culpepper winds up on a championship-caliber team like Indianapolis as a true backup.
