If I was a smart blog writer, I’d break up this top-ten busts of the year into ten posts, increase the amount of hits, set up some content in a slow time of year, and everyone would be happy. But I’m too impatient. Let's break it into two more posts, all in one day.

10. Cedric Benson, Bears - It’s never a good sign when fantasy owners are relieved by season-ending injuries. The Bears stayed faithful as long as possible, but it’s hard to imagine Benson being handed the unquestioned starting job next year, no matter what he says.

9. Travis Henry, Broncos - Like Benson, injuries were a factor. But the reality is that Henry suited up 12 times, and he didn’t top 51 rushing yards in his last seven games. What looked like a great marriage for Henry in Denver could end after one season.

8. Mark Clayton, Ravens - No one gave fantasy owners less on this list than Clayton. He was drafted as a solid WR3 (Average Draft Position among top 30 wideouts), and never showed up for his third season. The Baltimore offense doesn’t fully explain his struggles because Derrick Mason has a similar style game.

7. Vince Young, Titans - Statistically, it was hard to argue against Young going into the season. He was a top-five fantasy QB when he played as a rookie. Fantasy Nation’s gut didn’t love him, though. His ADP was eighth, we ranked him ninth. He finished 17th and only 26th in per-game average. Trust the gut.

6. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - Don’t let LJ’s solid three-game finish before his foot injury cloud his season. He was held to five fantasy points or less in half his games, and didn’t score until Week 5. He put his owners in a huge hole, he got hurt, and then he gave out false hope that he might help them in the fantasy playoffs.

We'll finish off the busts in the morning, along with the second half of the Top 30 keepers. Thanks for the patience. In the meantime, check out today's supersized Playoff prop bet edition of the Fantasy Fix, which unfortunately includes an Omar Epps impression. If that doesn't keep you from clicking, I don't know what will.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 03:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)

The last of the Dick Vermeil coaches in Kansas City are gone, which isn't a big surprise. Someone has to pay for that miserable of an offense, and it wasn't going to be GM Carl Peterson unfortunately.

Former Jets and Chiefs coordinator Paul Hackett sounds like the leading candidate to take over, but that doesn't jibe with an interesting throw-away line in Jason Whitlock's annual must-read Chiefs grades.

Continue reading "A ray of hope for L.J.?" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 11:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)

We're not usually in the business of breaking news at Rotoworld. Our goal is to have every scrap of NFL news posted to our site second, to aggregate everything faster than the competition so you don't have to.

This Larry Johnson post is an exception. Here's what we wrote:

Continue reading "On the Larry Johnson post" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 07:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (12)

I'm still not sure what to think about LaDainian Tomlinson this season. On one hand, he's resourceful. He's turned 3.4 yards-per-carry into a top-three fantasy scorer through the passing game (throwing and receiving), and the lack of quality competition at running back this year.

Another part of me wonders why Tomlinson couldn't crack 70 yards on 21 carries against one of the worst rush defenses in the league last week. We can talk about defenses loading up to stop LT2, but something isn't right when he's only cracked one run over 11 yards all season.

Tomlinson gets another chance to make his rushing numbers look healthy this week against Oakland. They have the 26th-ranked rushing defense and he has a great history against them. If Tomlinson remains stymied on the ground, I'd grow a little concerned.

Continue reading "Good matchups for Tomlinson, LJ" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 12:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Kansas City heads to Houston in Week 1, which would normally be a cause of celebration for all Larry Johnson owners. But Herm Edwards made some telling comments Tuesday about limiting LJ's workload early in the year. And then continuing to limit it throughout the year. Here's Herm:

Continue reading "Is LJ a shaky play this week?" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 09:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (11)

There are so daily injuries training camp, and most of them only last a few days. We attempt to sift through the noise in our player news by only highlighting major players or major injuries, but the amount of information is still overwhelming. Here's my quick take on what injuries matter thus far during camp, and which ones don't.

LaMont Jordan (back) - Becoming an issue, but not a big one yet. He's about a week away from getting a downgrade.

Clinton Portis (knee) - Just don't know at this point, but it's hard to imagine him starting the year getting 20 carries a game. He hasn't eased any concerns.

Vernand Morency (knee) - A serious problem. Morency is going to struggle to be ready for Week 1, and a committee seems inevitable.

Continue reading "What Injuries Matter" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 10:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (6)

LJ may have some familiar competition

Training camp has thrown its first curveball. Despite every indication that his career was over, Priest Holmes is expected to show up to Chiefs camp this week. The whole thing is curious, especially after reports this summer that Holmes was out of shape. NFL Network's Adam Shefter says he has medical clearance to play.

So what does this mean for fantasy leaguers?

First of all, this gives the Chiefs a bit of leverage in contract talks with Larry Johnson - but not that much. They certainly don't want to hand the starting job over to Holmes, who is turning 34 years old and hasn't played football in nearly two years.

Herm Edwards has also made it clear that he is favoring a youth movement at all positions, including running back. Kolby Smith and possibly undrafted rookie Marcus O'Keith were expected to have big roles. Will playing Holmes for one more year help Kansas City's future? GM Carl Peterson is loyal enough to invite Holmes to camp, but he's going to have to earn a role. Holmes is not guaranteed to make the team.

Continue reading "Priest Holmes Lives!" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 02:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (17)

The second part of Jason Whitlock's interview with Larry Johnson is an interesting read. Johnson has been a pain for some coaches, but it's clear he's a bright guy.

Whitlock writes about Kansas City's decision to dangle Johnson on the trade market and reveals something I don't remember seeing before. The Packers had the greatest interest in Johnson (which we knew), but weren't willing to give up Kansas City's asking price. The price? Their first-, second-, and third-round picks in April.

Well, of course a rebuilding team like the Packers aren't going to trade their entire first day of the draft for one running back. I doubt any NFL team would in these enlightened times, where draft picks are appropriately treated as gold. Thomas Jones was traded simply for a move up in the second round. The Ravens gave up two thirds and a seventh for Willis McGahee. (And I didn't even think that was a good deal for Baltimore.)

Carl Peterson knows the Packers weren't going to make that trade. And there's certainly no team out there right now who could make such an offer. I think he dangled Johnson to let him know that no one is irreplaceable. It was a negotiating move, and a fine one. But it also indicates that the Chiefs aren't that interested in losing Johnson. They want to make a deal, just their deal. The Kansas City Star says as much Friday. And that's why I think the Chiefs and Johnson will come to an agreement, whether it's in late July or late August. Both sides have too much to lose for any other outcome.

* Tom Curran and I talked about LJ and more in this week's Fantasy Fix.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Veteran holdouts are overrated. They get maximum media coverage and rarely affect what happens on Sundays. That probably won’t stop fantasy owners from freaking out Thursday following Larry Johnson’s statements that he’s prepared to hold out of training camp.

So does this impact L.J.’s fantasy value?

The short answer: Not yet. If Vegas were setting odds on Kansas City’s Week 1 starter at running back, Johnson would still be a 1:5 favorite. (Don't ask how I came up with that). He could skip the entire training camp and preseason, and it still probably wouldn’t affect his output. After 416 carries last season, any extra rest might be a plus. There’s a reason LaDainian Tomlinson practically sits out of football activities until September.

There is a slight risk that Johnson could sit out regular season games, and that’s because the Chiefs may be unwilling to give him big dollars. Johnson is known as a mercurial sort in the locker room, and Kansas City dangled him in trade talks before the NFL Draft. He is scheduled to make “only” $1.8 million in 2007 and smartly realizes this is the time to cash in. Before he breaks down.

Johnson has touched the ball 655 times in his last 25 games and he will be lucky to survive this season without getting hurt. The Chiefs’ overuse of Johnson is one of the factors that will be used against him in contract negotiations. It would hurt him on the open market. His poor blocking skills won’t do him any favors either.

The key for Johnson will be accepting that he’s not going to make LaDainian Tomlinson money. He will be lucky to get more than Frank Gore’s four-year, $28 million extension signed earlier this summer. There is also the possibility of a trade and signing like Deion Branch last year, but that shouldn't be a concern for fantasy leaguers. Almost any destination would probably help Johnson’s fantasy value, not hurt it.

The Chiefs hold almost all the cards here, and that’s why Johnson practically has to hold out as a negotiating ploy. Chiefs GM Carl Peterson is notoriously stingy. Surely he will point out that the Chiefs could easily retain Johnson’s services for the next 2-3 years by letting his contract play out and using the franchise tag. By 2009, the Chiefs will probably have used up the peak of Johnson’s career. Johnson is in a tough spot, and a “below-market” deal might still be his best chance to maximize dollars.

How does this affect the rest of the Chiefs?

One of our frequent commenters' “Dibble” asked Thursday whether this news raises rookie Kolby Smith’s value. As a dynasty league owner of Smith, I’d like to think so. But any bump is marginal. A holdout will give Smith extra time in training camp to prove that life after LJ in Kansas City will be fine. Perhaps a great month could help push the Chiefs to a trade, but I don’t see a match outside of Green Bay right now. And I don't see the Chiefs giving up on their best player so fast.

Smith still has to worry about beating out veteran Michael Bennett for the backup job. Both K.C. backups are squarely on the fantasy radar as fun late-round picks and possible handcuffs for Larry Johnson owners. But Herm Edwards does not want to go into Week 1 with a Smith/Bennett committee. And he probably won’t. Larry Johnson is the Kansas City offense presently and any missed time could grind the team to a halt.

There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Johnson as a top-five pick this season. His overuse last season was historical and he’s at risk of breaking down. His offensive line is a shell of what it used to be. Brodie Croyle will likely be starting his first NFL games. For Johnson’s fantasy owners, this holdout should be the least of their concerns.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 10:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)