July 24, 2008
Can Garrard trust his top receiver?
Jeremy Shockey's draft guide projection gets its own column. Jerry Porter's hamstring surgery gets a blog post.
Draft guide readers know I have Porter listed in the sleepers. He showed up very well on tape in a tough situation in Oakland, and is joining a great offense for his skills. My moles in Jacksonville told me that David Garrard was convinced Porter would put up huge numbers, the heir to Jimmy Smith.
Continue reading "Sticking with Jerry Porter" »
July 21, 2008
While the Redskins have started camp, the rest of the league doesn't all get into the swing of things at the same time until this weekend. Once that happens, we'll have more news affecting fantasy leaguers in a week than we had all offseason. It was mostly quiet while I was gone for a few days last week, but here are a couple items that caught my interest.
Kevin Jones could start the regular season on the PUP list. Any downgrade of Matt Forte because of Jones' addition should be minimal.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Recovering RBs" »
July 10, 2008
In the least surprising drug arrest since Nate Newton was pulled over crossing state lines, Matt Jones was reportedly caught with cocaine and marijuana early Thursday. (Bad combination. Jones' play on and off the field lacks some intelligence).
After I saw the news, I frantically went to our magazine outlooks to change Jones' blurb before we went to print. Then I realized Jones wasn't even in my top-100 receivers, so his profile already wasn't making the cut.
Continue reading "Matt Jones blows last chance with Jaguars" »
June 25, 2008
Steven Jackson gets hit on by his colon cleanser, trashes the Rams fanbase, and throws his teammates' blocking under the bus, all in one jam-packed Michael Silver article.
Beyond the easy jokes I made in his blurb, there were some interesting comments from Jackson about his teammates and the state of the Rams:
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Jackson cleanses " »
June 11, 2008
I spend an inordinate amout of time on this blog talking about Jaguars receivers, so I'll try to keep this one short. Those playing in deep dynasty leagues should not forget the name Mike Walker. He's a massive injury risk, but this article reminds us that he's probably got the best "number one receiver" skills on the team. I have some sources close to the Jaguars and they are uniformly convinced he is going to be a starter in the league for a long time - if he stays healthy. It probably won't happen this year, but he's worth stashing away.
June 05, 2008
Here's a teaser for our online draft guide and magazine: Reggie Williams is listed as a bust. He is going to be drafted way too early for a player who hasn't topped 629 yards in four seasons. Sure, he scored ten touchdowns last year, but that was in 38 catches! That's not sustainable (He had five career scores before last season).
Continue reading "Reggie Williams will be a bust whether the starts or not" »
April 22, 2008
My wife asked me last night what the point of a Mock Draft is. It was surprisingly difficult to come up with an answer, but I went with "entertainment value and you learn about the players." Saying it passes the time until next season would make sense too. With that in mind, Tony B. is up with the Jaguars
With Marcus Stroud being sent to the Buffalo Bills, Bobby McCray now a Saint, and Reggie Hayward a year removed from knee surgery and coming off of a relatively off-year, conventional wisdom says the Jaguars’ most pressing need is on the defensive line.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 26" »
April 17, 2008
Perhaps the most interesting part of the latest round of Ocho Cinco blather was Adam Schefter's note that Cincy has already received an offer of two first-day picks for Johnson. (Is that the old first day - three rounds - or the new first day of two rounds? I'm guesing the former).
If someone is offering that much before the draft, the price should go up on draft day. And that means the Bengals would have to consider the offer, even though I think he'll stay put. So is this mystery team? Here are my five best guesses based on ammunition (draft picks) and need.
Continue reading "Chad Johnson has bidders" »
March 01, 2008
With my wife out of town, Pancake Blocks is back to the working weekend. The action has slowed on Day two of free agency, but not by that much. Let's take a look at what's transpired since I last checked in here.
While Randy Moss might be frustrated, no other teams have stepped up to the plate. I can't think of many fits to be honest. Jacksonville made the most sense, but they are out of it following the Jerry Porter signing. Philadelphia, Denver, and Washington sound like fits but no contact has been reported. Which is possibly what is frustrating Moss. It reminds me of when Adam Vinatieri had no takers for a while because everyone assumed he'd return to New England.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Moss hanging around" »
February 26, 2008
Troy Williamson is going to be a Jaguar, and the Minnesota papers couldn't be happier. It's not good sign when the Vikings deal a former top-ten pick for a sixth-rounder, and the hometown guys call Jacksonville a sucker
My favorite Troy Williamson stat: he's never caught more than three passes in a game. The Jaguars may as well take a look at him, but I wouldn't expect that stat to change in 2008. He'll compete for a role on the outside, but even a roster spot can't be guaranteed.
January 15, 2008
Does Maroney's strong finish make him a better '08 fantasy pick?
Philip Rivers has played well enough in the playoffs to adjust my expectations for his 2008 season slightly. So who else has affected their value? I'll list some names and decide if their postseason effort mattered.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers - Here was the guy we expected to see all season. I think San Diego's maturation in the passing game has a lot to do with understanding Norv Turner's system. Jackson will be ignored after a lost year, but he still has potential to score a lot of touchdowns.
Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, Giants - Give credit to the GIants offensive line. Everyone looks like a superstar playing behind them. (Except for Reuben Droughns). Now that Bradshaw looks like a legitimate threat, Jacobs is going to wind up sharing carries with him and possibly Derrick Ward next year. Good for the Giants, bad for Jacobs. Although maybe lesser work can keep him healthy. 15 touches-per-game and a lot of scores would keep him a RB2.
Continue reading "Playoff adjustments" »
November 12, 2007
1. All 265 pounds of Brandon Jacobs was vultured by 220-pound short-yardage back Reuben Droughns. Jacobs had a strong day against a stout rush defense, but couldn't catch a break. An eight-yard score was called back by an unnecessary penalty.
2. Greg Jones stole two more touchdowns from his Jaguar teammates.
3. Najeh Davenport replaced Willie Parker on the goal line, although he failed to score.
***
This is admittedly a partial list. Who else did you guys see had touchdowns stolen on Sunday?
November 08, 2007
My look ahead to the fantasy playoff schedule this week forced me to look closer at the numbers and trends for defensive teams this week. Here are a few leftover thoughts to keep in mind when you are looking at matchups.
1. This is not the Jacksonville defense you remember. Same with Carolina
By nearly any measure, the Jaguars are an average defense at best this season. In fact, the numbers say they are below average against the pass. This is quite a surprise because they have been so consistent under Jack Del Rio, but don't look for improvement with Marcus Stroud ready to miss games. I wouldn't downgrade offenses playing them.
I think most owners know that the Panthers defense also hasn't been the same, but it's worth pointing out because they have been so consistently good over the years. They are average across the board right now.
Continue reading "Midseason Defense in Review" »
October 22, 2007
As part of the buildup to Monday Night Football, ESPN's Ed Werder recounted a conversation with Tony Dungy about Maurice Jones-Drew. Dungy said that Indianapolis was all set to draft MoJo last year until Jacksonville took him two picks earlier.
Dungy said the Colts were shocked that Jacksonville took Drew, because they usually take such huge (tall) physical players. The Colts settled on CB Tim Jennings, but imagine how sweet a backfield of Addai and Drew would have been. And how it would have crushed Addai's fantasy value.
October 17, 2007
Here are two of my favorite lines of the week.
From Mike Preston's Ravens mailbag:
Mike, there's no doubt Kyle Boller's one of the better backups in the league, but he just doesn't seem to have the confidence or the head to lead the team as a starter. With Steve McNair showing his age, do you think the Ravens will pursue another quarterback in the offseason?
Mike Preston: They better, because all the other teams in the AFC North have proven quarterbacks, or quarterbacks of the future on their rosters. In Baltimore, the Ravens have one quarterback who is physically challenged and one that is mentally challenged. Together, McBoller is a fairly decent quarterback.
Long live McBoller.
Continue reading "Apropos of Nothing" »
September 18, 2007
I don't like owning old receivers. I'd rather give up a year too early than a year too late. That's why I don't have guys like Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad on my team, although I know plenty of owners out there do.
These guys are edging towards irrelevence. Muhammad is known for his consistency, but has two catches for 15 yards in two games. Joe Horn has three catches for 48 yards. They are both slowing players on weak offenses. In Chicago, Bernard Berrian is clearly the top option. Roddy White appears to emerging in Atlanta.
Continue reading "Hot Seats: Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad" »
Jones has three catches in two games, and his coach is publicly questioning his body language. I had Jones ranked quite high early in the offseason until a source close to the team in Jacksonville begged me off it because of Jones' reputation for laziness. I'm glad I listened, although he was still ranked too high from the looks of it.
Jones shouldn't near fantasy lineups at this point, but he should still be owned as a WR5/6 in most 12-team formats. He was second on the Jaguars with five targets in Week 2, and it's worth seeing if he responds to Del Rio's challenge.
September 12, 2007
Every NFL week is full of surprises; the ones early in the year just get more attention. Here's a quick list of players I'm watching closely this week.
1. Marshawn Lynch - After watching the Shortcuts of this game, I'm pretty sure he's for real. You can't teach breaking tackles. A good game against Pittsburgh would solidify his RB2 status.
2. Chris Brown - The Titans offensive line was fierce. Let's see if they can blow up the Colts.
3. Jaguars runners - Their offensive line got pushed around. Look for a better effort against the Falcons.
4. Saints offense - I know it was only one game. But I still want to see what they do against the Bucs.
Continue reading "Surprises" »
August 31, 2007
It's Friday, I'm making sure the draft guide is up to date, so let's keep this short with some fantasy thoughts and non-fantasy football thoughts on the announcement of Byron Leftwich's dismissal in Jacksonville.
Fantasy Implications
1. We re-did the projections and David Garrard is now our QB15, atop of of a big tier with Matt Leinart and Brett Favre, but behind guys like Eli Manning and Jay Cutler. That seemed high to me at first because I'm not a huge fan of Garrard's passing skills. Then I looked at his fantasy stats when he's started.
2005 (6 starts): QB5
2006: (10 starts): QB14
Continue reading "Go Grab Garrard" »
August 26, 2007
The funny thing, I've always considered myself a Fred Taylor fan. Apparently, he disagrees.
If you are watching the Sunday night game tonight, check back here throughout. Not sure I can quite call it a liveblog because I have some other work to attend to, but I'll be checking in periodically. Hopefully your draft weekend went better than Michael Turner's.
And here's my preview of the Sunday night game, in case you missed it.
August 24, 2007
Let's look back at my questions regarding last night's game and see what we learned.
Jacksonville vs. Green Bay
* The Jacksonville wide receiver rotation. If Jack Del Rio is going to make a change, it's now or never.
Dennis Northcutt and Ernest Wilford remain the starters. Matt Jones remains in the slot. Reggie Williams played earlier than usual, but only gained nine yards on his two catches. He's probably going to get cut. I drafted Wilford with my final WR slot in a 14-team league last night.
Continue reading "Northcutt and Wilford Stick" »
August 23, 2007
Two games tonight. Here's what I'd look for, whether on television or in the game stories.
Jacksonville vs. Green Bay
* Can the James Jones magic continue?
* The Jacksonville wide receiver rotation. If Jack Del Rio was going to make a change, it's now or never.
* Can Brandon Jackson keep up his momentum from last week?
Continue reading "What to Watch Tonight" »
Best news of my week: NBC hooked me up with a big ol' fancy television at my desk to help me work, especially on Sundays. While I write a few things for tomorrow, I have the Jaguars-Bucs preseason game on in front of me.
It gave me a chance to look at Greg Jones. My first impression: He looks like a guy coming off knee surgery. The good news for him, and bad for Maurice Jones-Drew: Jones got two straight carries inside the five-yard line with the first team.
Continue reading "Could Greg Jones steal touchdowns?" »
August 15, 2007
Does Lemon have a chance?
I broke out the preseason notebook Tuesday with the Falcons/Jets. Let me know if this is the type of thing you guys like in the future. Here goes a few notes from the Lions-Bengals and Jaguars-Dolphins.
Jaguars-Dolphins
* Miami's young offensive line was manhandled by Jacksonville. It was like they weren't there. Trent Green had some ugly throws, but no one would have played well. This could be a rare case of the preseason showing something if the trend continues. If Miami's line gets pushed around like this all August, I'd consider downgrading Ronnie Brown.
* Cleo Lemon threw a few beautiful passes, but they were against third-teamers. He needs a monster game this week for a chance to start, but he's still a big long shot.
Continue reading "Preseason Notebook, vol. 2" »
August 13, 2007
With a week's worth of Fantasy Fix's in the can, I'm staying home in New York more than usual this week and breaking in my new HD DVR. Best use of wedding money possible.
I can never find enough time to watch as much tape as I'd like, but I'm taking some notes from the preseason games that I may post here later. First, a Matt Jones sequence I couldn't pass up. Jones didn't start the game (Ernest Wilford and Dennis Northcutt did), and played exclusively out of the slot.
Continue reading "Matt Jones' Light: Still Off" »
August 08, 2007
After I wrote about the Jaguars receivers yesterday, both local papers provided updates on Wednesday.
Matt Jones is currently being looked at as a slot receiver, which would diminish his fantasy potential. We may need to downgrade him slightly. I still wouldn't be surprised to see him win back a starting job before the season.
Reggie Williams is most certainly fighting for a roster spot, while Jack Del Rio compares his team to the Saints.
Continue reading "Jaguars WRs follow-up: Jones a slot receiver?" »
August 07, 2007
Not a good day for the once-vaunted class of 2004 wideouts. On a day when Michael Clayton (No. 15 pick) was demoted, Reggie Williams was listed as a third-stringer Tuesday on Jacksonville's depth chart. Here are the players in front of him: Dennis Northcutt, Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones, and Charles Sharon.
The first three names should be on the team, although Jones isn't completely guaranteed to start. Mike Walker is listed behind Williams, but he's a talented third-round pick who has impressed. Jaguars.com called him the most talented receiver on the team, and he's a fantastic dynasy league pick. He's going to be on the roster with a fourth spot. That leaves Williams, Sharon, and John Broussard left for one spot if they only decide to keep five wideouts. Sharon has been the story of the offseason. He has practice squad eligibility, but Del Rio may be interested in sending a message to his roster that no one is safe anymore. Broussard is a seventh-round pick who has also impressed.
There have been whispers around Jacksonville that not all the young receivers are safe, and Williams would be the most likely to go. I know one thing: He is no longer draftable in fantasy leagues. I thought he was developing into a productive pro last year, but the Jaguars appear to be tired of him.
August 02, 2007
We've written in inordinate amount about the Jaguars tight end battle this summer. A winner is emerging, and thankfully it's Marcedes Lewis.
At 270 pounds, Lewis might be too big to be a true seam stretcher in the mold of Antonio Gates. But his improved blocking and solid hands could make him a 45-catch, 550-yard, 5-TD type of fantasy option in the mold of Randy McMichael.
Lewis is yet another reason to wait on tight ends this season. I wouldn't take him as a starter, but he's a high upside TE2 in deep leagues. We'll upgrade him soon. His biggest downside is the competition in Jacksonville: Jermaine Wiggins and George Wrighster.
Wiggins is going to come off the bench. Love this quote from Mike Tice, who has a rare coaching habit of being forthright. He says Wiggins, "Does everything well but nothing great."
That's Wiggins' career epitaph.
July 18, 2007
#37. Jaguars TE: Marcedes Lewis vs. Jermaine Wiggins vs. George Wrighster
Big things are expected from Lewis as a first-round pick in 2006, but he may struggle to fulfill his potential this season. The lanky target missed most of training camp last year with an ankle injury, then didn’t catch up all season. He continued to miss time this offseason with a hamstring injury.
Perhaps that’s why Jack Del Rio and Mike Tice felt more comfortable bringing in human bowling ball Jermaine Wiggins. Wiggins isn’t flashy, but he has good hands, smarts, and a history of productivity. He is a favorite of Tice's from their days in Minnesota. Wrighster was the starter last season and caught a career-high 39 passes. He’s recovering from a torn labrum, though, and may be third in line going into camp.
The Jaguars passing game was re-tooled this offseason to go vertical. Frankly, its impossible to guess how the ball will be spread around. My guess is there is too much competition at tight end for one guy to rise above the fray and be a good fantasy option. Don’t draft Wiggins or Lewis, but watch to see if anyone creates separation in camp.
June 15, 2007
Busy editing the magazine today, a refrain that may be too common around here over the next two weeks. So let's go straight to the links. (Notice I'm using a * instead of bullet because the PFT Fantasy Mill doesn't like my html.
Wilford a starter again?
* Jack Del Rio lays down the gauntlet to Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. We've written about Jones before this summer, but it appears neither player will be a "starter" to open training camp.
That leaves Ernest Wilford and Dennis Northcutt, with super sleeper Mike Walker waiting in the wings. Someone named Charles Sharon is also in the mix. The news is a concern for anyone interested in drafting a Jaguar receiver, especially Jones. Jack Del Rio is probably trying to motivate the group, but he knows it's a do-or-die season. Donovin Darius' release may be a wake up call. One note of caution: All we heard about last summer was about Wilford, and he was behind Reggie Williams once camp got going.
* As a depressed dynasty league owner of Eric Shelton the last two years, I'll attach myself to any sliver of good news possible. Perhaps the dismissal of Dan Henning will help, but I'm not convinced he was somehow in the doghouse by mistake.
If Shelton could help the Panthers win, he'd be playing. Perhaps a release and a reuniting with Bobby Petrino in Atlanta would help him. Kudos to David Warner, who wrote the piece over at AOL Fanhouse for educating the masses on all kinds of football this summer on his blog.
* Mike Tomlin pencils in his starters. It's surprising Anthony Smith and Bryant McFadden are on the bench, at least for now. Ike Taylor is safely out of the doghouse.
* Thursday was Vernand Morency day in the local Green Bay papers. My gut tells me Morency will split carries with Brandon Jackson at best, but these pieces suggest otherwise.
* Wanted to talk at length all week about Michael Felger's article on Randy Moss. First, it's a huge loss for Patriots fans now that Felger is no longer on staff at the Herald. Hopefully he continues to pen pieces like this when he has time. Second, this is such a great example of how different writers can get drastically different impressions from offseason practices. Peter King was gushing about Moss in Sports Illustrated. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but Felger has been right about an awful lot over the years.
For the record, I don't really care how well Randy Moss practices in June if he's not a "distraction." I just hope he has juice left in his legs on Sundays.
* Paul Zimmerman writes that Tom Brady was "furious" about his lack of receivers last offseason - off the record. Thanks to Florio's excellent new vice Poohbah Michael David Smith for catching this.
* Minicamp season is just about wrapping up. Some places with good coverage this weekend to check out...
* The Newark Star Ledger on the Giants
* Redskins Insider, which has a painful sounding account of LaRon Landry's "groin contusion." Maybe Paintball should be played with a cup.
* Seahawks Insider wraps up the recent minicamp in Seattle.
June 08, 2007
Just got off the phone with our buddy Mike Dempsey on 1010XL in Jacksonville. He reported on his radio show that Culpepper and the Jaguars were talking about restructuring his contract Thursday night.
At some point during the process, Culpepper apparently decided Jacksonville was not the right fit for him. Or that he needs totest free agency. A failure to negotiate with Jacksonville should nearly kill any chance of a deal there. We have to think that Culpepper has a team lined up, but who?
Reports out of St. Louis indicate they aren't interested. There hasn't been a peep coming out of Baltimore. Culpepper is acting as his own agent and better know what he's doing, because there may not be a better situation for him than with the Jaguars.
Oh, and what do you think Byron Leftwich is thinking right about now?
Daunte Culpepper is tired of being traded. So he's doing his best to make sure one doesn't happen.
“All I’m going to say to any team that’s interested in my services, just sit tight. Because I’m not going to agree to a trade," Culpepper said.
Cam Cameron practically admitted the Dolphins had a deal for Culpepper.
"There’s some things that Randy’s working on that if I comment could jeopardize our ability to work with him. That’s all we can say at this point.”
It's a tricky situation because Culpepper is his own agent. In the end, the Jaguars and the Dolphins could work out a deal, but Culpepper could make it very difficult on all parties by refusing to restructure his contract. I'm not sure Culpepper can really do anything in the end. He's still Miami property, at least for now. The two sides could work out a conditional trade that only goes into affect if Culpepper actually plays for the receiving team, like the Jake Plummer deal earlier this offseason.
May 31, 2007
Is Jones tough enough?
Matt Jones is getting a reputation in Jacksonville for being soft. Lower leg injuries continue to bother the former quarterback, as he missed three weeks of OTA work because of hamstring injuries. Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford surprisingly opened the offseason as the team’s starters, which looks like Jack Del Rio trying to send a message to Jones. It doesn’t appear to have taken hold.
My initial projections for Jones were optimistic, but our buddy Mike Dempsey at 1010XL in Jacksonville doesn’t believe he’ll ever be consistent. Dempsey has kicked my fantasy teams around enough to listen closely. He also believes Mike Walker, the team’s third-round pick, has a big future with the team. Walker had a setback in his recovery from his ACL surgery that may slow down his rookie year, but he could start in 2008. When you throw Dennis Northcutt into the mix, it’s quite possible all the Jacksonville receivers will cancel each other out. Again.
The friction between Byron Leftwich and Jack Del Rio is getting a lot of attention in the press, but it’s not a huge story. Leftwich will have the job if healthy. Staying on the field has been his biggest problem the last two years.
March 23, 2007
I completed my first draft of tight end outlooks, rankings, and projections for our magazine this week. I've said this the last two years, but it's still true: The position is deeper than ever.
Solid veterans with some upside like Desmond Clark, Dallas Clark, and Daniel Graham had trouble cracking the top-15. High-upside sleepers like Eric Johnson, David Martin, and Alex Smith were around No. 20.
One player who I had a hard time projecting was Jags second-year TE Marcedes Lewis. He was a first-round pick with good hands and tight ends often experience serious improvement in their second year.
Continue reading "Lagging Lewis" »
|
