June 08, 2009
We haven't heard a lot about the Colts' No. 3 receiver battle until this weekend. These articles indicate that Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie are the front runners, as expected. The winner is a longshot for major value, but would be worth a look in deep dynasty PPR and redraft leagues. I'm mostly interested in who would start if Anthony Gonzalez or Reggie Wayne got hurt. My guess is that Collie is more of a slot receiver, while Garcon could work the outside. Gonzalez's recent injury doesn't look serious at this stage.
***
In other minor depth chart news, Devery Henderson still appears to be running ahead of Robert Meachem, despite all the positive press Meachem has received this season. The quantity of options for Drew Brees on every down makes me worry that Lance Moore will take a step back this season.
Roman Harper finished first in my tackle-heavy scoring system among safeties in 2007. He dropped all the way to 15th at the famously fickle IDP position in 2008, but he's poised for a big bounceback this year. This article does a nice great explaining why, but I'll do it in two words: Gregg Williams.
Williams loves to use his safeties to attack the line of scrimmage, which leads to more tackles and big plays. He got the best out of Sean Taylor in Washington, and even turned cornerback Brian Williams into a decent playmaker last year. Harper showed that he's not always great in coverage last year, but he can be a Pro Bowl player and top-five IDP option when he's on the attack.
May 18, 2009
Peter King’s weekly column highlights the Colts offense following the retirements of offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd.
It's the end of an era in Indy, considering head coach Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Ron Meeks have also left the building. Fantasy-wise, though, the moves shouldn't induce panic.
Jim Caldwell is an offensive oriented head coach. Offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen was already rising up the coaching ladder, taking on assistant head coach duties in February. With Christensen and offensive line coach Pete Metzelaars having been groomed as replacements for seven and five years respectively, the succession plan has long been in place.
Continue reading "Colts offense remains a fantasy bonanza" »
April 22, 2009
This pick mysteriously disappeared for a few reasons overnight, but it's back! And it's still a nice selection.
Everyone is talking about the Colts needing a WR to replace Harrison or a run stopping DT. But the biggest whole the Colts have to fill is RB. I personally think the Colts will work hard to move back because there are not a lot of players that fit their style on offense or defense at this pick.
Even the next 2 RBs on the board on not the type of back they typically look for. However, Addai and Rhodes were simply pathetic last season. The Colts were 31st in total rushing offense and 32nd in ypc. The desperately need an upgrade at RB and while a running back can be had in the later rounds you can’t leave that to chance. The Colts are built to score points and being one dimensional on offense will be worse than addressing the run defense.
The Colts select RB Chris Wells.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Pick No. 27" »
February 25, 2009
We know the Giants don't want Marvin Harrison. Will anyone?
Harrison's production and ability to separate fell off dramatically as he turned 36 years old last season. The always-healthy future Hall of Famer did not respond well to off-season knee surgery. All my notes from '08 on Harrison have a consistent theme: Harrison did not separate against single coverage. If he couldn't produce in his perfect situation with the Colts, with tons of weekly targets, he's unlikely to produce a lot elsewhere.
John Clayton cites Chicago, Philadelphia, and Tennessee as possible destinations, and those make sense. But Harrison won't be a priority for any of those teams. He is not going to be one of those players signed in the first few days of free agency. His chance for maximum production would be to return to the Colts.
It remains to be seen, though, how he'll react to contract offers that may see him as a role player - a third receiver type off the bench. This is a first Ballot Hall of Famer with a lot of pride. It wouldn't shock me if Harrison decides it's not worth the trouble.
February 20, 2009
Marshawn Lynch was charged with three misdemeanors after getting arrested last week. They are all gun-related, and he won’t be charged with marijuana possession. (Officers originally looked at Lynch's car because they smelled marijuana.) Unlike Plaxico Burress, Lynch has already got some “good” news in his difficulties. This may be because of different gun laws in California or because his firearm didn't go off. A NFL suspension seems inevitable, but this seemingly will make jail much easier to avoid and possible limit the suspension. Long way to go still of course.
Great reminder from Mike Lombardi: "From this day forward, never — and I strongly mean never — believe that a player and a team cannot make up. Never believe that there is finality in anything as long as great money is involved."
Lombardi is using Shane Lechler as an example, but the same holds true for all the stories you read about Anquan Boldin, Julius Peppers, and other disgruntled stars over the next few months. Most of it is noise except for money-related issues.
The uncapped 2010 league year could make it harder for the Chargers to keep LaDainian Tomlinson. Anyone reading the article linked would also conclude that a long-term deal with Darren Sproles sounds unlikely.
Jim Caldwell is sending verbal warm and fuzzies to Marvin Harrison, but he’s not making any final decisions. It would be shocking if Harrison is on the 2009 roster. (I'm essentially in the 27th round of a dynasty draft now where we start 10 IDPs. Harrison is still on the board. Harry Douglas and Devery Henderson were the last two wideouts taken.)
The Chiefs offense will change under Todd Haley, but the return of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has to be good news for Tyler Thigpen’s chances for continued relevance.
The Saints are "dying for a power back." That can’t be good news for Pierre Thomas.
January 13, 2009
The elephant in the Titans locker room: What are they going to do with Vince Young next season. This is among the toughest quarterback decisions I've ever seen.
Kerry Collins doesn't want to be a backup anymore, and has essentially said he'd rather retire than be a backup again. The Titans want Collins back, presumably as the favorite to start. But a two-year, $4 million contract with incentives is not starter money. They shouldn't really promise Collins anything, but Mike Lombardi thinks Collins will get the starting job in writing. Wow. They should probably look hard at available free agents, including their own Chris Simms, but Jeff Fisher's loyalty to Collins will probably carry the day.
This Titans team was built to win now. They outplayed Baltimore and had a great chance to win it all in a wide-open year. I felt bad for Jake Delhomme Saturday, but I felt worse for Jeff Fisher. This could have been his year, and a future of Young/Collins contains no promises.
***
I wrote this in column form, but I'm planning to post a big set of links here every weekday during this offseason. It will usually be in the late morning, but could be early afternoon if other work interrupts. This blog could use some structure/direction and that's a start. Not sure if I like the Skinny Posts tag enough to keep it. May try a different name. Let me know what you think. Your links are after the jump.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: What to do with Kerry Collins" »
January 12, 2009
When the wind blows, Eli does too. It is a problem for Manning and the Giants that his passes seemed to flutter so much in the usual Meadowlands winds. Maybe they are better off going on the road in the off-season. That wind is one reason to avoid Jets/Giants quarterbacks in fantasy leagues.
MJD with a well-reasoned take on the worthiness of nine-win teams.
Time to start gearing up for the NFL Draft. Evan Silva's Bowl Season recap is the place to start.
With Tony Dungy's departure, there are only three active head coaches who have won a Super Bowl. That number will climb to four in February.
Mickey Rourke's acceptance speech at the Golden Globes: Kinda rambling and not as funny as Tracy Morgan's speech but a great moment nonetheless.
Tony Dungy is retiring, but offensive Coordinator Tom Moore is not. And that ends the discussion of whether Dungy's retirement will hurt the Colts in fantasy leagues. Many deserved tributes will be written about Dungy in the next few days, and I'm looking forward to his 5PM presser to hear him reflect on his last 13 wildly successful years as a NFL head coach.
But Moore runs the offense, with a hearty assist from assistant quarterback/thespian Peyton Manning. The Colts offense has some big questions this off-season. Assuming Marvin Harrison is cut, who fills the third receiver spot? How can they fix the offensive run blocking? Who will be brought in to team with Joseph Addai next season and is Addai still the starter?
The answers to those questions will impact fantasy leaguers more than Dungy's retirement. Jim Caldwell will take over for Dungy and has a background in offense, but is unlikely to tinker with the system that works so well.
January 05, 2009
The Natives are seriously restless in Indianapolis: Bob Kravitz breaks out the big words: paper tigers, one and Dungy, folding, underachievers. That was yesterday. Today, he's asking for Dungy to leave. As an impartial observer, I'm surprised the Super Bowl win didn't earn more affection. Do the Colts fans out there agree? Kravitz does point out one damning stat: Dungy and Manning are under .500 in the playoffs.
I may write more about this later in the week, but anyone notice how 5 of the 8 teams left have 3-4 defenses. And none of the teams use the Tampa 2 as their base defense. This is a year of massive linemen on both sides of the ball rather than speedy ones. Bill Parcells must be proud.
The dean of San Diego sportswriters, Nick Canepa, calls Saturday night's Chargers-Colts tilt the greatest ever played in the city. (The Chargers/Dolphins OT game in 1981 was at Miami). I can't disagree. Just a stirring contest filled with so many storylines.
I think this article was joking when it said that the Colts were unlucky that LaDainian Tomlinson was hurt. But I agree. I'm not sure the Chargers win that game with the regular season Tomlinson getting most of the carries.
“I don't think it had much of an impact, really,” Chargers T Jeromey Clary said. Just more proof that running back is the most fungible position in football. More on this later.
It looks like LT2 will miss this week, and probably the rest of the playoffs. I was already going to bury him in the late second or third round of my rankings next year, and groin surgery won't help his case. Now I suspect my low ranking of him won't be too out of the norm.
Reporter catfight between Jerry McDonald and Chris Mortensen! I'll take McDonald in this battle every time.
Interesting numbers about what teams were the most effective running behind which offensive line spot. More proof that Leonard Davis and Jeff Otah were awesome acquisitions over the last two years.
January 02, 2009
It feels weird to award Peyton Manning his third MVP when this was his worst season in a decade. But he threw for 17 TDs and two picks during the team's nine game winning streak, which started with victories over New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, and San Diego. Manning's play late to save wins against Minnesota, Houston, New England, and Pittsburgh makes the award feel well deserved. There just weren't many complete candidates.
The Giants offensive line would have been my first choice, with Manning second, and Matt Ryan third. Adrian Peterson had a chance until his fumbling problems late in the year, but it's tough to give the league MVP award to someone who often isn't on the field in crunch time because he's a liability on passing downs.
The Browns really seem to like Eric Mangini. If that gets in the way of hiring Scott Pioli, I believe they are making a big mistake.
God bless the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel for stat breakdowns from this. A couple thoughts here: Green Bay was devastated by the Cullen Jenkins injury because he was playing at an All Pro level. Donald Driver still has some of the best hands in football. And the Packers need to get younger at tackle.
Tony Gonzalez could be on the trade market again if the Chiefs change coaches. If I was Scott Pioli, the Kansas City job, with all its security, would be very intriguing.
Like anyone with thin skin, Brian Urlacher knows sarcasm is the best tool to quiet your critics. This was the season the league saw Urlacher go from a game-changing force to just a good linebacker, but I think the transition has evolved slowly this way for a while. Like Ray Lewis, Urlacher is only going to be as good as the tackles in front of him.
December 22, 2008
Week 17 fantasy is often all about guessing who will rest their starters and how much. This season, with so much on the line, there really aren't that many situations to keep track of. I count four. Every other NFL team has long since been out of it or has something important to play for. Carolina's loss kept them in play. Same goes with Denver and Minnesota. The five teams who don't have anything to play for: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Arizona and the New York Giants. There is an outside chance Baltimore could be out of it. Here are my guesses about how they will treat Week 17.
Continue reading "Week 17: To Play or Not to Play" »
December 19, 2008
Thoughts from a Colts win that disappointed many Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets fans who wish David Garrard could throw a touch pass in the red zone
1. Is there a more consistently entertaining recent rivarly in the NFL than Jags-Colts? I happened to watch both games in their entiriety this year and they were among the best two games of the year. The themes have repeated since the pre-Garrard era: The Jaguars hold the ball, push Indy around, and the Colts often find a way to come back. The Jaguars managed to respond in Week 3 after the comeback, but fell just short Thursday.
Continue reading "MoJo and Dallas Clark give '09 preview" »
December 18, 2008
1. Can you go back to Joseph Addai?
I think you can as a RB2, at least over other players with shaky matchups like LaDainian Tomlinson and Ryan Grant. We may not know Addai's status officially until gametime, but he's expected to start. The Colts should want him to get a decent workload tonight to get him ready for the playoffs. The Colts will rest their starters next week if they win. Jacksonville has played well against the run the last two weeks, slowing down Matt Forte and Ryan Grant, but they are mediocre overall.
2. Is this an Anthony Gonzalez game?
With Marvin Harrison out, it sure looks like it. Taking one option away from Peyton Manning is huge for Gonzo's targets, especially against a below average secondary. Gonzalez is up to No. 26 in my latest rankings. It helps Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark too.
Continue reading "Thursday night questions" »
November 12, 2008
Each week, I write up some borderline plays for a NBC press release. When I remember, I post them here.
Tyler Thigpen vs. Saints: Kansas City’s new spread attack has turned around a dead offense in a hurry. Thigpen is a factor in November! (And the Saints best cornerback Mike McKenzie is now out for the season). Mark Bradley, also a sneaky play last week, still qualifies.
Matt Ryan vs. Broncos: The best rookie quarterback since Dan Marino is ahead in his development compared to Brady Quinn. And the Broncos made Quinn look like a Pro Bowler.
Jerious Norwood, Falcons: Quietly leading the NFL in yards-per-carry again and has topped 50 total yards in three straight
Marvin Harrison vs. Texans: Everyone else has given up on Harrison except Peyton Manning. He’s still getting targets and favorable matchups, especially in the red zone. The matchup is right for a rebound.
Bobby Engram vs. Cardinals: Matt Hasselbeck wakes up the human third down conversion.
October 30, 2008
I wasn't sure how to feel about the Colts offense after Monday Night's loss to the Titans. On one hand, they protected Peyton Manning better than they have all season. The offensive line also blocked well for Dominic Rhodes. This was supposed to be a brutal matchup for the big men up front, and they held up well.
On the other hand, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison did squat. Peyton Manning oddly missed some passes. Some of his deep balls fluttered, although I suspect that was because of the wind. In the end, I'm not discouraged the Colts managed to put up 21 points. It was the Titans. And I love the Colts remaining schedule against the pass. The Colts get a favorable matchup against the Patriots Sunday night, and then the Steelers the following week. Then, nirvana:
Continue reading "Colts set up from strong stretch run" »
October 29, 2008
The Patriots head to Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday night for a game that should help alleviate any concern fantasy owners have with Peyton Manning. The running backs for both teams are less certain options. LaMont Jordan returned to practice Wednesday. If he makes it through the week, he hurts Kevin Faulk's chances to be a flex play. I'd rather use Jordan because his rugged style will be leaned on against the Colts. BGE's time in the sun is probably over if Jordan gets healthy. LaMont has a decent shot to stick as the Patriots starter for a while.
Joseph Addai should also return for this game. While he may split carries this week, I'd still use him as a RB2 against a Patriots team that will need to drop a lot of defenders in coverage. If Addai is a surprise last-minute scratch, you should have Dominic Rhodes waiting in reserve.
September 15, 2008
Week One Heroes who sunk
1. Maybe they were fluky: Anthony Fasano didn’t have a catch Sunday. Dante Rosario only had a six-yard catch. Randy McMichael had two catches for 24 yards.
2. Marvin Harrison owners should be concerned that he’s pouting like the playoffs and that Anthony Gonzalez looks like the better player.
3. Reggie, Reggie, Reggie is averaging 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season. The receiving numbers and punt return touchdown absolutely save him, especially in PPR leagues, but let’s not get carried away talking about his maturation just yet.
4. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood learned what life can be like with a rookie quarterback facing a real NFL defense. They went from 313 yards and three scores to 60 yards. Thud.
August 22, 2008
The more I hear about Peyton Manning's recovery, the less I enjoy what I'm hearing. Jim Irsay's comments the other day didn't sound great. The Colts recognize Manning could miss Week 1. Considering Manning's reputation and the original timeframe we heard, that was a surprise. Mike Lombardi's post about Manning threw gas on the fire, likely to scare the crap out of anyone drafting this weekend.
The reality is, we just don't know that much. We know it was supposed to be a four-to-six week recovery. He had surgery five weeks ago; that's a concern. But if all the speculation ever got past the rumor stage, national reporters would be trying to out-scoop each other. Lombardi would be on NFL Network tonight breaking the news.
Next week will be telling. If Manning hasn't practiced by next Friday, then the concern rises. But now we are just dealing in guesswork. I'd rather deal in what I know to be true, which is hard to find in fantasy football.
Continue reading "Knocking Manning" »
August 18, 2008
It's been a crazy day for draft guide updates, but let's look at my other headlines to know from preseason Week 2.
1. After another nice preseason effort, Eddie Royal looks to be keeping that starting job for good. And it was interesting to see Andre Hall replace Selvin Young twice in the red zone. Vulture, anyone?
2. Rams lost two backup offensive linemen for the season. The starters were miserable protecting Marc Bulger again this week. I won't overreact to preseason efforts, but another game like this will be cause for conern.
3. Reggie Brown couldn't stay healthy for another game. He's at risk of losing some targets to DeSean Jackson, who continues to play well.
4. Kenton Keith was the fifth-string running back in Indy. He looks like a goner. Darius Walker didn't get a carry in Houston. I'm guessing the Texans Week 1 roster will include Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor and either Ahman Green or Marcel Shipp.
Continue reading "More preseason headlines: Winning jobs" »
July 25, 2008
The big takeaways from Friday include Andre Johnson and Marvin Harrison practicing fully again. In Indy, Harrison's teammates said he looked like the same old Marv. Johnson has been running routes for weeks, and caught a bomb behind three Houston defenders Friday.
I'm not sure if Johnson's surgery affected his ADP, but we have continued to rank him second at wideout. This helps solidify that ranking. So does Harrison's return, which hurts Reggie Wayne. Harrison continues to fall in drafts as people overreact to summer reports. My friend Stephen chose him at 5.09 in a draft today. I've taken him at that spot or later. It's a part of the draft where other receiver options usually include Laveranues Coles, Lee Evans, and Dwayne Bowe are taken. To me, Harrison is a no brainer that deep. Could he burn you there? Sure. But anyone can burn you, and that's deep enough in the draft for risk to meet reward. Something tells me he may not continue to fall that far.
July 15, 2008
For a Patriots fan, I have an unnatural appreciation for Peyton Manning. All things considered, he's the best quarterback I've ever seen. Throw in my wife's Manning obsession and there is way too much Manning love in the Rosenthal household.
My belief in Manning's ability to play the hand that is dealt is why I'm relatively unconcerned with his recent surgery. It would be a shock if he's not ready for Week 1. And while he could be rusty, it would be an equal shock if he doesn't play well against the Bears, Vikings, and Jaguars in his opening three games before Indy's bye.
Continue reading "Manning isn't moving" »
May 02, 2008
When writing the Colts' outlooks for next year, especially for Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, I said that so much of their value hinges on Marvin Harrison. I didn't quite trust him to come back all the way. I thought there's a chance he doesn't come back at all. Of course, I was worried about his knees; not his 25 guns. This is going to be the story of the summer.
Kudos to WIP's Anthony Gargano, who must have a great connection with the Philly police. Some of the details he uncovered are unbelievable.
April 25, 2008
Okay, it's a little off-topic today, but we need something to post something while Rob dawdles with the Giants pick. (He says its coming and the Mock is basically over, so I don't mind.)
Marvin Harrison missed a total of two games between 1999-2006. In those eight seasons, he scored double digit touchdowns every season. Last year, he disappeared with a mysterious knee injury in Week 4 and basically never returned. Now he's 36. So where do we rank Harrison going into 2008? Right back in the top ten? As a WR2 with bust possibility? Or is he washed up?
He is someone that preseason reports will matter greatly, but we make two magazines before that. Would you put him ahead of Wes Welker? I have my ideas, but give me your position rank for Harrison below.
Continue reading "Tough to Rank: Marvin Harrison" »
April 11, 2008
This week in my NBCSports.com column, I wrote about five veterans who should be nervous on draft day that an incoming rookie could eventually steal their playing time.
Continue reading "Harrison's shelf life in doubt" »
February 15, 2008
I wrote up the first six rounds of my "Day After Super Bowl" Mock Draft earlier this week. Here are a handful of notable names that fell far into the mid-to-late rounds.
Edgerrin James, 7.01- Arizona should get someone to split carries, so this is about right. I don't they will cut him though.
Continue reading "Falling Big Names" »
January 21, 2008
Tony Dungy is returning to the Colts. The Colts say it's not necessarily for just one more season, although that seems likely. The situation is reminscent of Bill Cowher's final season in Pittsburgh, although Cowher didn't have a succession plan in place.
I can't think of a bigger story that has less fantasy impact. Whether Dungy stays or goes, the Colts offense is run by Tom Moore and Peyton Manning. That arragement will continue, whether Dungy or Jim Caldwell is the head coach.
January 14, 2008
LaDainian Tomlinson said an MRI revealed only a hyperextended knee, and that the injury wasn't serious.
Even odder, LT2 said that he would have returned to the game if the Chargers had trailed by more:
Continue reading "Tomlinson's odd injury" »
Patriots fans, myself included, are undeniably spoiled. It shows up during games when Gillette Stadium sounds like a library. And it shows up in the reaction wins.
Multiple articles Monday in Boston are complaining that the Patriots don't face the Colts this week. Bill Simmons comparisons to the '86 Celtics are soon to follow.
Bob Ryan can appreciate the last seven straight hard-fought wins by the Patriots after the pinball scores from earlier in the season. Again, we're comparing how we like to win.
Continue reading "Spoiled Pats fans get another gift" »
January 13, 2008
I'm still in shock after watching a playoff classic in Indianapolis, one of the best playoff games of the decade. I thought this Colts team had a great chance to defend their title, but now they are wondering if Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison will return next season.
Peyton Manning can't take the blame for this one; the Colts offense was hardly stopped all day. A Kenton Keith drop led to an interception on the goal-line, and Marvin Harrison's fumbled killed another drive. That's two red zone trips for zero points. The Colts had another late in the game when they were stopped on downs inside the ten.
If I had to pick a goat for this game, it was the vaunted Indy pass defense. This was a different kind of Colts team all season because of the consistency of their defense. The Colts were the best scoring defense in the league and second overall in pass defense.
On Sunday, LaDainian Tomlinson was average for a half, then left the game. Antonio Gates was hobbling. This team had San Diego right where they wanted them, and they gave up 21 second half points to Philip Rivers and Billy Volek throwing all over Tony Dungy's Cover Two scheme.
Last year, a shaky Colts defense suddenly manned up in the playoffs and carried the team to a title. This time, a just-as-sudden defensive collapse could have ended an era.
January 04, 2008
We noted the near misses, ranked #6-10, now it's time for the top five busts of the year.
5. Laurence Maroney, Patriots - Remember how fantasy owners used to curse the Patriots passing game because they spread the ball around too much? That happened to Maroney this year in the running game. Even before his injury, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk were outplaying him in their roles. His strong finish (6 tds in seven weeks) gave hope for 2008, but it defied any expectations that Maroney didn’t score until Week 11 on the highest scoring team of all time.
4. Marc Bulger, Rams - Plenty of owners took Bulger ahead of Tom Brady and Tony Romo, and with good reason. He was coming off a 4,300 yard season and had never averaged under 256 yards-per-game in his career. He didn’t even crack 200 this year, and only threw 11 touchdowns while doing his best late-career Drew Bledsoe impression. Hopefully a healthy offensive line leads to better play.
3. Marvin Harrison, Colts - I tried to avoid injured players here, but Harrison’s case was special for a lot of reasons. He had missed a total of two games in the last eight years. He played at a position where almost all the top picks performed well enough. Most excruciatingly, Harrison originally got hurt in Week 3, and the Colts said it was a minor bruise. He gained 24 yards the rest of the year while he strung owners along with a brutal week-to-week non-comeback story. You get the sense around the Colts that they weren’t happy with Harrison’s long rehab, and neither were fantasy owners.
Continue reading "Top Five Busts of the Year" »
December 27, 2007
Some running backs having more value than normal in this wild Week 17.
DeAngelo Willimas, Panthers- Finally starting to play over DeShaun Foster in key spots, and playing well. Could position himself for starting consideration in 2008.
Musa Smith, Ravens - The day has arrived! Too bad he'll be playing with Troy Smith.
Continue reading "Random RB Spikes" »
November 28, 2007
Not a great day for hopeful Marvin Harrison owners. An article on the Indianapolis Star website makes it sound like Harrison won't be helping anyone soon.
When asked if he thought Marvin Harrison would play this week, Peyton Manning paused, and said, "I wouldn't count on it."
I'm a little late to the party here, but I picked up Anthony Gonzalez in a few leagues this week and suggest you do the same if you need receiver help.
I've had my doubts about Gonzalez all season, but the time off with a thumb injury appeared to help him. He looked like a new receiver against Atlanta. With the Jaguars and every other team likely to double Reggie Wayne, Gonzalez should put up numbers worthy of a roster spot as a WR5/6 the rest of the way.
If you own Harrison, I'd wait to see what happens this week. If he doesn't practice, I don't think it's crazy to drop him. Would you really have any confidence using him during the playoffs? He will probably be limited even if he plays. It only took three years, but ranking ranking Reggie Wayne ahead of Harrison finally paid off.
November 02, 2007
I've heard a lot of complaining about the hype surrounding Sunday's Colts-Patriots game, which I don't exactly understand for a few reasons.
1. As the former Pacifist Viking points out, you can ignore the hype if you want to. Stop watching ESPN; you'll be better for it. Don't read about the game if you don't want to.
2. If you love football, how can you not love this matchup? These are quite possibly the best two teams of the last 12 years. The only time the Patriots approached this level was during 2004 AFC Playoffs. I believe this is Tony Dungy's best Colts time by far, which is why the betting line in this game is ridiculous. Maybe the Pats roll, but based on evidence from this season the line should be close to even.
I love the NFL far more than college football because of the excellence of the players and coaches. They are the best of the best, and these two teams are the best we've seen in a long time. If you can't appreciate the game played at it's highest level, well, you let the hype beat you down.
***
Dr. Z is still the best at breaking down games because he watches tape and doesn't parrot the usual Pro Bowl blather. Plus who else can give such details on Raheem Brock? A couple wildly positive lines in his breakdown caught my eye.
On Wes Welker: Might be the greatest hot receiver, or blitz-control guy, who ever lived. From a guy who literally wrote the books on football (The invaluable Thinking Man books), that's saying a lot.
On Logan Mankins: The NFL's best guard.
On Bob Sanders: A mini-Ray Lewis in Lewis' prime.
October 23, 2007
Joseph Addai owners looking forward to his return Monday night didn't enjoy what they saw: Kenton Keith playing early, Kenton Keith playing late, and Kenton Keith stealing a touchdown. Keith wasn’t just coming in for specific situations, rather taking whole series at a time.
Addai was a Fantasy MVP candidate a few weeks ago, but that will be tougher to maintain if he’s in a jobshare moving forward. That’s what I expect to see.
Continue reading "Colts inch back towards committee" »
October 22, 2007
As part of the buildup to Monday Night Football, ESPN's Ed Werder recounted a conversation with Tony Dungy about Maurice Jones-Drew. Dungy said that Indianapolis was all set to draft MoJo last year until Jacksonville took him two picks earlier.
Dungy said the Colts were shocked that Jacksonville took Drew, because they usually take such huge (tall) physical players. The Colts settled on CB Tim Jennings, but imagine how sweet a backfield of Addai and Drew would have been. And how it would have crushed Addai's fantasy value.
September 07, 2007
The optimist in me would point out that the Saints offense looked nearly as bad throwing the ball in Week 1 last season against Cleveland (30 attempts, 170 yards). The Saints fan in me knows this season will get better, but Sean Payton's magic may not work quite as consistently this season.
All right, things we learned
1. Eric Johnson (8-for-56) is going to be a nice PPR option, especially against zone defenses.
2. Anthony Gonzalez (one target) may not be a big part of the Colts offense for a while. Ben Utecht may have been on the field more.
3. When Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister combine for 78 yards rushing against the Colts, you know it's a brand new season.
Continue reading "Things we learned" »
September 06, 2007
Not a great night for Devery Henderson - or anyone one the Saints offense. Five targets, two catches, 11 yards, and an ugly drop late in the game. Henderson has had problems with drops and toughness throughout his career. It's why the Saints drafted Robert Meachem to replace him.
The thing that made me shudder as a Saints supporter is that Henderson shied away from contact, causing the drop. We've seen this before.
Update: As I'm writing this, Henderson catches a 24-yard pass. Better than nothing.
Very close watchers of commerical breaks may have just seen the national debut of Pancake Blocks on the John Madden Verizon V-Cast commerical. After some dude throws a football that eventually topples a lawn sculpture, Madden makes a face, and Verizon begins to show the exclusive fantasy football content available on V-Cast.
They show an NBC logo, then for about half a second, on about half of the screen in the phone, they show half of me and Tiffany talking. If you blinked, you missed it. Mrs. Pancake Blocks had to rewind on Tivo a few times just to tell it was me. Glad I didn't tell my parents or anyone else to watch, but cool nonetheless. Rotoworld Nation has come a long way.
Why would you punt on fourth-and-inches down three possessions in the fourth quarter? The idea should be to win, not protect the scoreboard. I'll never understand this. It's not like fourth-and-inches is a low percentage play.
The Colts knew what they were doing when they let Jason David go. Just like Nick Harper. Sure, Reggie Wayne (who just burned David for a score) and Marvin Harrison are going to make most cornerbacks look bad. But teams just don't let good players walk, especially moderately priced cornerbacks like David who sign offer sheets as a restricted free agent.
There has been a lot of talk about the defensive players Indy lost, from their cornerbacks to Cato June, but a lot of them were a big part of a bad defense. The Colts will find out if their young starters Freddie Keiahoe, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden are quality options. It's worth finding out because the old guys weren't that great.
One thing that Joseph Addai owners had to be concerned about was Indy's tendency to throw on the goal line. I watched Manning throw three straight inside the five during one preseason game, something that often happens in the regular season.
Well, this time Manning took one shot from the two-yard line before they called a run. And Addai punched it in. Maybe they will do it on first down more often in the future.
Maybe that playoff Colts defense is here to stay. Or maybe the Saints are slowly blowing a great chance to have a lead in a very difficult road game. The Saints defense has given up ten points and scored seven on their own. If not for a lucky bounce, this game would be a snorer.
Classic Joseph Addai half. Or at least the Joseph Addai I expect to see in 2007. He seemed active, but it's a surprise when you notice he has 88 total yards at halftime on 13 carries and a catch.
Do that again and you have a quiet 175 total yard day. He's a great slasher and always hits the right holes. Playing on the Colts practically guarantees him 100 total yards a game. He rarely does anything that wows you, though, and that's the difference between ranked in Big Three this year (LT2, Jackson, and Gore), and being ranked fourth. Addai owners won't mind one bit.
That's three catches for Eric Johnson. I'd tell you the amount of yards, but the play-by-play and box score is still having problems.
Watching Johnson work, it's not hard to see why he always gets hurt. He certainly isn't making anyone miss and he's a big target underneath who seeks out contact. The Colts have already leveled him twice, causing a fumble. A few more games like this and Johnson is going to be on the sidelines again.
Haven't seen Anthony Gonzalez on the field much tonight. John Madden made an interesting comment that the Colts want Gonzalez to be Brandon Stokley, but he's not yet.
I wasn't sure if Madden was trying to say that Gonzalez has been a slight disappointment thus far or just stating the obvious that Gonzalez is a rookie with a long way to go. Either way, I'm not buying him as a fantasy asset until 2008.
When I was talking about this game with people this week, I said no result would surprise me except a defensive struggle. While I'm sure this thing will loosen up, it's Offense 7, Defense 7 through 25 minutes
A nice early reminder that none of us know anything.
I doubt many fantasy owners enjoyed Jason David's long fumble return for a touchdown. Reggie Wayne loses a point, the Saints lose a possible drive, and a fantasy defense that almost no one could have active tonight.
Kudos if you did! Let me know.
The New NFL.com has been great, but their scoreboard is having some issues right now. Colts 1, Zephyrs 0.
The Saints decide to keep Jason David covering the left side of the field even when Marvin Harrison switches sides, and Harrison burns him for a 27-yard touchdown.
Big plays were a huge problem for the New Orleans defense last year. They probably will be again with David as a starter and Jason Craft behind him. You get the sense the Colts set that play up for a while with a lot of short stuff, then struck. And Harrison starts another year ahead of Reggie Wayne.
The Saints come out running, which shouldn't be so surprising. Reggie Bush gets more of the love early, but showed some of the problems he had in the first half all year.
He gets an inside run, but only goes two yards. He catches a swing pass, but backs up too much near the first-down marker, leaving the Saints in third-and-one. Bush then shows his versatility on an end-around he takes nine yards.
This game has all the makings of a shootout, but the Saints don't look interested. They want to grind out yards with runs and short passes.
Sheesh, that didn't take long. Joseph Addai goes down on the first play from scrimmage. He wound up walking off the field and looks okay, and Kenton Keith takes his first carry eight yards.
John Madden says Keith is not ready for a game like this, but the coaching staff had faith in him there.
Even if Addai returns quickly, Keith is going to get picked up in every league he's available now.
Devery's coming out party?
Let's try something new with a matchup preview for tonight's game.
Colts vs. Saints
QB: Peyton Manning - Must Start - Manning may not have a better matchup this year. Young safeties for New Orleans and a trio of stopgap veterans behind Mike McKenzie at cornerback (Jason Craft, Jason David, Fred Thomas).
RB1: Joseph Addai - Must Start - The Saints should sell out to stop Manning, which will leave Addai a ton of room.
RB2: Kenton Keith - Must Sit - Will be fun to scout him. Could play in short-yardage situations.
WR1: Marvin Harrison - Must Start - He's basically their goal-line receiver. Needs to put the stink of last postseason behind him.
WR2: Reggie Wayne - Must Start - Maybe Colts/Saints was a bad choice for the first matchup preview. Everyone is a must start.
WR3: Anthony Gonzalez - Must Sit - You should have better options than a rookie third receiver.
TE1: Dallas Clark - Borderline start- Four games over 50 yards in two years, but facing the Saints at home is as good as it gets.
Continue reading "Saints vs. Colts Matchups" »
The Week 1 rankings are up, so that should handle most of your start/sit questions. I do plan to tackle some matchup previews here that weren't discussed in Goal Line Stand or the Fantasy Fix.
With the Colts hours away from kicking off the season, it's time to look at the Scout.com article from Wednesday that helped explain why DeDe Dorsey was surprisingly cut by the Colts.
Continue reading "Dorsey Redux" »
May 29, 2007
This man needs a backup
Note:I started a team-by-team look at minicamp season in my column today. I'll finish the rest of the AFC here on the blog this week.
I have been driving the DeDe Dorsey bandwagon since mentioning him on the Fantasy Fix and an Offseason Lowdown column in March, and there is still plenty of room available. But it's starting to get a little more crowded.
After an Indiana News article called Dorsey and CFL star Kelton Keith co-favorites for the number two job in Indianapolis, Colts.com admits Dorsey is the favorite. The second-year pro impressed at the team's recent minicamp and has the versatility the Colts look for. While the team won't employ a straight commmittee approach like last year, the backup to Joseph Addai will probably get more work than your average handcuff. And since we're talking about the best offense in football, any backup to Addai will be a major late-round sleeper. ... Owners looking for a reason to believe the Colts passing game can improve this year should look no further than their defense. On paper, it could be worse than the unit that forced Peyton Manning to pass like crazy last year. 575 pass attempts is possible, which would lead to bigger numbers for Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne. ... Anthony Gonzalez missed the team's mandatory minicamp because of an NFL Rookie event. He should slot into the third receiver role before long, but keep an eye on Roy Hall, his old teammate at Ohio State. Hall is 240 pounds and will probably be converted into a catch-first tight end. Perhaps he'll give Dallas Clark a run for his job in a year.
February 04, 2007
Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday were campaigning for Saturday's block against Vince Wilfork on the game-winning touchdown in the AFC Championship to be dubbed "the block." Not a bad idea - Saturday cleared Wilfork off the screen.
Well Saturday just pulled off the same trick against Ian Scott on a first-and-goal from the eight, helping Dominic Rhodes get to the one-yard line. Just great leverage and toughness by Saturday, who made the Pro Bowl again. Rhodes scored one play later to help the Colts take their first lead of the night: 16-14.
The Colts have had their problems in this game, but moving the ball isn't one of them. That's 211 yards in 25 minutes. The Colts defense won't wear down if they aren't ever on the field.
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