September 15, 2008
Week One Heroes who sunk
1. Maybe they were fluky: Anthony Fasano didn’t have a catch Sunday. Dante Rosario only had a six-yard catch. Randy McMichael had two catches for 24 yards.
2. Marvin Harrison owners should be concerned that he’s pouting like the playoffs and that Anthony Gonzalez looks like the better player.
3. Reggie, Reggie, Reggie is averaging 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season. The receiving numbers and punt return touchdown absolutely save him, especially in PPR leagues, but let’s not get carried away talking about his maturation just yet.
4. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood learned what life can be like with a rookie quarterback facing a real NFL defense. They went from 313 yards and three scores to 60 yards. Thud.
August 22, 2008
The more I hear about Peyton Manning's recovery, the less I enjoy what I'm hearing. Jim Irsay's comments the other day didn't sound great. The Colts recognize Manning could miss Week 1. Considering Manning's reputation and the original timeframe we heard, that was a surprise. Mike Lombardi's post about Manning threw gas on the fire, likely to scare the crap out of anyone drafting this weekend.
The reality is, we just don't know that much. We know it was supposed to be a four-to-six week recovery. He had surgery five weeks ago; that's a concern. But if all the speculation ever got past the rumor stage, national reporters would be trying to out-scoop each other. Lombardi would be on NFL Network tonight breaking the news.
Next week will be telling. If Manning hasn't practiced by next Friday, then the concern rises. But now we are just dealing in guesswork. I'd rather deal in what I know to be true, which is hard to find in fantasy football.
Continue reading "Knocking Manning" »
August 18, 2008
It's been a crazy day for draft guide updates, but let's look at my other headlines to know from preseason Week 2.
1. After another nice preseason effort, Eddie Royal looks to be keeping that starting job for good. And it was interesting to see Andre Hall replace Selvin Young twice in the red zone. Vulture, anyone?
2. Rams lost two backup offensive linemen for the season. The starters were miserable protecting Marc Bulger again this week. I won't overreact to preseason efforts, but another game like this will be cause for conern.
3. Reggie Brown couldn't stay healthy for another game. He's at risk of losing some targets to DeSean Jackson, who continues to play well.
4. Kenton Keith was the fifth-string running back in Indy. He looks like a goner. Darius Walker didn't get a carry in Houston. I'm guessing the Texans Week 1 roster will include Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor and either Ahman Green or Marcel Shipp.
Continue reading "More preseason headlines: Winning jobs" »
July 25, 2008
The big takeaways from Friday include Andre Johnson and Marvin Harrison practicing fully again. In Indy, Harrison's teammates said he looked like the same old Marv. Johnson has been running routes for weeks, and caught a bomb behind three Houston defenders Friday.
I'm not sure if Johnson's surgery affected his ADP, but we have continued to rank him second at wideout. This helps solidify that ranking. So does Harrison's return, which hurts Reggie Wayne. Harrison continues to fall in drafts as people overreact to summer reports. My friend Stephen chose him at 5.09 in a draft today. I've taken him at that spot or later. It's a part of the draft where other receiver options usually include Laveranues Coles, Lee Evans, and Dwayne Bowe are taken. To me, Harrison is a no brainer that deep. Could he burn you there? Sure. But anyone can burn you, and that's deep enough in the draft for risk to meet reward. Something tells me he may not continue to fall that far.
July 15, 2008
For a Patriots fan, I have an unnatural appreciation for Peyton Manning. All things considered, he's the best quarterback I've ever seen. Throw in my wife's Manning obsession and there is way too much Manning love in the Rosenthal household.
My belief in Manning's ability to play the hand that is dealt is why I'm relatively unconcerned with his recent surgery. It would be a shock if he's not ready for Week 1. And while he could be rusty, it would be an equal shock if he doesn't play well against the Bears, Vikings, and Jaguars in his opening three games before Indy's bye.
Continue reading "Manning isn't moving" »
May 02, 2008
When writing the Colts' outlooks for next year, especially for Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, I said that so much of their value hinges on Marvin Harrison. I didn't quite trust him to come back all the way. I thought there's a chance he doesn't come back at all. Of course, I was worried about his knees; not his 25 guns. This is going to be the story of the summer.
Kudos to WIP's Anthony Gargano, who must have a great connection with the Philly police. Some of the details he uncovered are unbelievable.
April 25, 2008
Okay, it's a little off-topic today, but we need something to post something while Rob dawdles with the Giants pick. (He says its coming and the Mock is basically over, so I don't mind.)
Marvin Harrison missed a total of two games between 1999-2006. In those eight seasons, he scored double digit touchdowns every season. Last year, he disappeared with a mysterious knee injury in Week 4 and basically never returned. Now he's 36. So where do we rank Harrison going into 2008? Right back in the top ten? As a WR2 with bust possibility? Or is he washed up?
He is someone that preseason reports will matter greatly, but we make two magazines before that. Would you put him ahead of Wes Welker? I have my ideas, but give me your position rank for Harrison below.
Continue reading "Tough to Rank: Marvin Harrison" »
April 11, 2008
This week in my NBCSports.com column, I wrote about five veterans who should be nervous on draft day that an incoming rookie could eventually steal their playing time.
Continue reading "Harrison's shelf life in doubt" »
February 15, 2008
I wrote up the first six rounds of my "Day After Super Bowl" Mock Draft earlier this week. Here are a handful of notable names that fell far into the mid-to-late rounds.
Edgerrin James, 7.01- Arizona should get someone to split carries, so this is about right. I don't they will cut him though.
Continue reading "Falling Big Names" »
January 21, 2008
Tony Dungy is returning to the Colts. The Colts say it's not necessarily for just one more season, although that seems likely. The situation is reminscent of Bill Cowher's final season in Pittsburgh, although Cowher didn't have a succession plan in place.
I can't think of a bigger story that has less fantasy impact. Whether Dungy stays or goes, the Colts offense is run by Tom Moore and Peyton Manning. That arragement will continue, whether Dungy or Jim Caldwell is the head coach.
January 14, 2008
LaDainian Tomlinson said an MRI revealed only a hyperextended knee, and that the injury wasn't serious.
Even odder, LT2 said that he would have returned to the game if the Chargers had trailed by more:
Continue reading "Tomlinson's odd injury" »
Patriots fans, myself included, are undeniably spoiled. It shows up during games when Gillette Stadium sounds like a library. And it shows up in the reaction wins.
Multiple articles Monday in Boston are complaining that the Patriots don't face the Colts this week. Bill Simmons comparisons to the '86 Celtics are soon to follow.
Bob Ryan can appreciate the last seven straight hard-fought wins by the Patriots after the pinball scores from earlier in the season. Again, we're comparing how we like to win.
Continue reading "Spoiled Pats fans get another gift" »
January 13, 2008
I'm still in shock after watching a playoff classic in Indianapolis, one of the best playoff games of the decade. I thought this Colts team had a great chance to defend their title, but now they are wondering if Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison will return next season.
Peyton Manning can't take the blame for this one; the Colts offense was hardly stopped all day. A Kenton Keith drop led to an interception on the goal-line, and Marvin Harrison's fumbled killed another drive. That's two red zone trips for zero points. The Colts had another late in the game when they were stopped on downs inside the ten.
If I had to pick a goat for this game, it was the vaunted Indy pass defense. This was a different kind of Colts team all season because of the consistency of their defense. The Colts were the best scoring defense in the league and second overall in pass defense.
On Sunday, LaDainian Tomlinson was average for a half, then left the game. Antonio Gates was hobbling. This team had San Diego right where they wanted them, and they gave up 21 second half points to Philip Rivers and Billy Volek throwing all over Tony Dungy's Cover Two scheme.
Last year, a shaky Colts defense suddenly manned up in the playoffs and carried the team to a title. This time, a just-as-sudden defensive collapse could have ended an era.
January 04, 2008
We noted the near misses, ranked #6-10, now it's time for the top five busts of the year.
5. Laurence Maroney, Patriots - Remember how fantasy owners used to curse the Patriots passing game because they spread the ball around too much? That happened to Maroney this year in the running game. Even before his injury, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk were outplaying him in their roles. His strong finish (6 tds in seven weeks) gave hope for 2008, but it defied any expectations that Maroney didn’t score until Week 11 on the highest scoring team of all time.
4. Marc Bulger, Rams - Plenty of owners took Bulger ahead of Tom Brady and Tony Romo, and with good reason. He was coming off a 4,300 yard season and had never averaged under 256 yards-per-game in his career. He didn’t even crack 200 this year, and only threw 11 touchdowns while doing his best late-career Drew Bledsoe impression. Hopefully a healthy offensive line leads to better play.
3. Marvin Harrison, Colts - I tried to avoid injured players here, but Harrison’s case was special for a lot of reasons. He had missed a total of two games in the last eight years. He played at a position where almost all the top picks performed well enough. Most excruciatingly, Harrison originally got hurt in Week 3, and the Colts said it was a minor bruise. He gained 24 yards the rest of the year while he strung owners along with a brutal week-to-week non-comeback story. You get the sense around the Colts that they weren’t happy with Harrison’s long rehab, and neither were fantasy owners.
Continue reading "Top Five Busts of the Year" »
December 27, 2007
Some running backs having more value than normal in this wild Week 17.
DeAngelo Willimas, Panthers- Finally starting to play over DeShaun Foster in key spots, and playing well. Could position himself for starting consideration in 2008.
Musa Smith, Ravens - The day has arrived! Too bad he'll be playing with Troy Smith.
Continue reading "Random RB Spikes" »
November 28, 2007
Not a great day for hopeful Marvin Harrison owners. An article on the Indianapolis Star website makes it sound like Harrison won't be helping anyone soon.
When asked if he thought Marvin Harrison would play this week, Peyton Manning paused, and said, "I wouldn't count on it."
I'm a little late to the party here, but I picked up Anthony Gonzalez in a few leagues this week and suggest you do the same if you need receiver help.
I've had my doubts about Gonzalez all season, but the time off with a thumb injury appeared to help him. He looked like a new receiver against Atlanta. With the Jaguars and every other team likely to double Reggie Wayne, Gonzalez should put up numbers worthy of a roster spot as a WR5/6 the rest of the way.
If you own Harrison, I'd wait to see what happens this week. If he doesn't practice, I don't think it's crazy to drop him. Would you really have any confidence using him during the playoffs? He will probably be limited even if he plays. It only took three years, but ranking ranking Reggie Wayne ahead of Harrison finally paid off.
November 02, 2007
I've heard a lot of complaining about the hype surrounding Sunday's Colts-Patriots game, which I don't exactly understand for a few reasons.
1. As the former Pacifist Viking points out, you can ignore the hype if you want to. Stop watching ESPN; you'll be better for it. Don't read about the game if you don't want to.
2. If you love football, how can you not love this matchup? These are quite possibly the best two teams of the last 12 years. The only time the Patriots approached this level was during 2004 AFC Playoffs. I believe this is Tony Dungy's best Colts time by far, which is why the betting line in this game is ridiculous. Maybe the Pats roll, but based on evidence from this season the line should be close to even.
I love the NFL far more than college football because of the excellence of the players and coaches. They are the best of the best, and these two teams are the best we've seen in a long time. If you can't appreciate the game played at it's highest level, well, you let the hype beat you down.
***
Dr. Z is still the best at breaking down games because he watches tape and doesn't parrot the usual Pro Bowl blather. Plus who else can give such details on Raheem Brock? A couple wildly positive lines in his breakdown caught my eye.
On Wes Welker: Might be the greatest hot receiver, or blitz-control guy, who ever lived. From a guy who literally wrote the books on football (The invaluable Thinking Man books), that's saying a lot.
On Logan Mankins: The NFL's best guard.
On Bob Sanders: A mini-Ray Lewis in Lewis' prime.
October 23, 2007
Joseph Addai owners looking forward to his return Monday night didn't enjoy what they saw: Kenton Keith playing early, Kenton Keith playing late, and Kenton Keith stealing a touchdown. Keith wasn’t just coming in for specific situations, rather taking whole series at a time.
Addai was a Fantasy MVP candidate a few weeks ago, but that will be tougher to maintain if he’s in a jobshare moving forward. That’s what I expect to see.
Continue reading "Colts inch back towards committee" »
October 22, 2007
As part of the buildup to Monday Night Football, ESPN's Ed Werder recounted a conversation with Tony Dungy about Maurice Jones-Drew. Dungy said that Indianapolis was all set to draft MoJo last year until Jacksonville took him two picks earlier.
Dungy said the Colts were shocked that Jacksonville took Drew, because they usually take such huge (tall) physical players. The Colts settled on CB Tim Jennings, but imagine how sweet a backfield of Addai and Drew would have been. And how it would have crushed Addai's fantasy value.
September 07, 2007
The optimist in me would point out that the Saints offense looked nearly as bad throwing the ball in Week 1 last season against Cleveland (30 attempts, 170 yards). The Saints fan in me knows this season will get better, but Sean Payton's magic may not work quite as consistently this season.
All right, things we learned
1. Eric Johnson (8-for-56) is going to be a nice PPR option, especially against zone defenses.
2. Anthony Gonzalez (one target) may not be a big part of the Colts offense for a while. Ben Utecht may have been on the field more.
3. When Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister combine for 78 yards rushing against the Colts, you know it's a brand new season.
Continue reading "Things we learned" »
September 06, 2007
Not a great night for Devery Henderson - or anyone one the Saints offense. Five targets, two catches, 11 yards, and an ugly drop late in the game. Henderson has had problems with drops and toughness throughout his career. It's why the Saints drafted Robert Meachem to replace him.
The thing that made me shudder as a Saints supporter is that Henderson shied away from contact, causing the drop. We've seen this before.
Update: As I'm writing this, Henderson catches a 24-yard pass. Better than nothing.
Very close watchers of commerical breaks may have just seen the national debut of Pancake Blocks on the John Madden Verizon V-Cast commerical. After some dude throws a football that eventually topples a lawn sculpture, Madden makes a face, and Verizon begins to show the exclusive fantasy football content available on V-Cast.
They show an NBC logo, then for about half a second, on about half of the screen in the phone, they show half of me and Tiffany talking. If you blinked, you missed it. Mrs. Pancake Blocks had to rewind on Tivo a few times just to tell it was me. Glad I didn't tell my parents or anyone else to watch, but cool nonetheless. Rotoworld Nation has come a long way.
Why would you punt on fourth-and-inches down three possessions in the fourth quarter? The idea should be to win, not protect the scoreboard. I'll never understand this. It's not like fourth-and-inches is a low percentage play.
The Colts knew what they were doing when they let Jason David go. Just like Nick Harper. Sure, Reggie Wayne (who just burned David for a score) and Marvin Harrison are going to make most cornerbacks look bad. But teams just don't let good players walk, especially moderately priced cornerbacks like David who sign offer sheets as a restricted free agent.
There has been a lot of talk about the defensive players Indy lost, from their cornerbacks to Cato June, but a lot of them were a big part of a bad defense. The Colts will find out if their young starters Freddie Keiahoe, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden are quality options. It's worth finding out because the old guys weren't that great.
One thing that Joseph Addai owners had to be concerned about was Indy's tendency to throw on the goal line. I watched Manning throw three straight inside the five during one preseason game, something that often happens in the regular season.
Well, this time Manning took one shot from the two-yard line before they called a run. And Addai punched it in. Maybe they will do it on first down more often in the future.
Maybe that playoff Colts defense is here to stay. Or maybe the Saints are slowly blowing a great chance to have a lead in a very difficult road game. The Saints defense has given up ten points and scored seven on their own. If not for a lucky bounce, this game would be a snorer.
Classic Joseph Addai half. Or at least the Joseph Addai I expect to see in 2007. He seemed active, but it's a surprise when you notice he has 88 total yards at halftime on 13 carries and a catch.
Do that again and you have a quiet 175 total yard day. He's a great slasher and always hits the right holes. Playing on the Colts practically guarantees him 100 total yards a game. He rarely does anything that wows you, though, and that's the difference between ranked in Big Three this year (LT2, Jackson, and Gore), and being ranked fourth. Addai owners won't mind one bit.
That's three catches for Eric Johnson. I'd tell you the amount of yards, but the play-by-play and box score is still having problems.
Watching Johnson work, it's not hard to see why he always gets hurt. He certainly isn't making anyone miss and he's a big target underneath who seeks out contact. The Colts have already leveled him twice, causing a fumble. A few more games like this and Johnson is going to be on the sidelines again.
Haven't seen Anthony Gonzalez on the field much tonight. John Madden made an interesting comment that the Colts want Gonzalez to be Brandon Stokley, but he's not yet.
I wasn't sure if Madden was trying to say that Gonzalez has been a slight disappointment thus far or just stating the obvious that Gonzalez is a rookie with a long way to go. Either way, I'm not buying him as a fantasy asset until 2008.
When I was talking about this game with people this week, I said no result would surprise me except a defensive struggle. While I'm sure this thing will loosen up, it's Offense 7, Defense 7 through 25 minutes
A nice early reminder that none of us know anything.
I doubt many fantasy owners enjoyed Jason David's long fumble return for a touchdown. Reggie Wayne loses a point, the Saints lose a possible drive, and a fantasy defense that almost no one could have active tonight.
Kudos if you did! Let me know.
The New NFL.com has been great, but their scoreboard is having some issues right now. Colts 1, Zephyrs 0.
The Saints decide to keep Jason David covering the left side of the field even when Marvin Harrison switches sides, and Harrison burns him for a 27-yard touchdown.
Big plays were a huge problem for the New Orleans defense last year. They probably will be again with David as a starter and Jason Craft behind him. You get the sense the Colts set that play up for a while with a lot of short stuff, then struck. And Harrison starts another year ahead of Reggie Wayne.
The Saints come out running, which shouldn't be so surprising. Reggie Bush gets more of the love early, but showed some of the problems he had in the first half all year.
He gets an inside run, but only goes two yards. He catches a swing pass, but backs up too much near the first-down marker, leaving the Saints in third-and-one. Bush then shows his versatility on an end-around he takes nine yards.
This game has all the makings of a shootout, but the Saints don't look interested. They want to grind out yards with runs and short passes.
Sheesh, that didn't take long. Joseph Addai goes down on the first play from scrimmage. He wound up walking off the field and looks okay, and Kenton Keith takes his first carry eight yards.
John Madden says Keith is not ready for a game like this, but the coaching staff had faith in him there.
Even if Addai returns quickly, Keith is going to get picked up in every league he's available now.
Devery's coming out party?
Let's try something new with a matchup preview for tonight's game.
Colts vs. Saints
QB: Peyton Manning - Must Start - Manning may not have a better matchup this year. Young safeties for New Orleans and a trio of stopgap veterans behind Mike McKenzie at cornerback (Jason Craft, Jason David, Fred Thomas).
RB1: Joseph Addai - Must Start - The Saints should sell out to stop Manning, which will leave Addai a ton of room.
RB2: Kenton Keith - Must Sit - Will be fun to scout him. Could play in short-yardage situations.
WR1: Marvin Harrison - Must Start - He's basically their goal-line receiver. Needs to put the stink of last postseason behind him.
WR2: Reggie Wayne - Must Start - Maybe Colts/Saints was a bad choice for the first matchup preview. Everyone is a must start.
WR3: Anthony Gonzalez - Must Sit - You should have better options than a rookie third receiver.
TE1: Dallas Clark - Borderline start- Four games over 50 yards in two years, but facing the Saints at home is as good as it gets.
Continue reading "Saints vs. Colts Matchups" »
The Week 1 rankings are up, so that should handle most of your start/sit questions. I do plan to tackle some matchup previews here that weren't discussed in Goal Line Stand or the Fantasy Fix.
With the Colts hours away from kicking off the season, it's time to look at the Scout.com article from Wednesday that helped explain why DeDe Dorsey was surprisingly cut by the Colts.
Continue reading "Dorsey Redux" »
May 29, 2007
This man needs a backup
Note:I started a team-by-team look at minicamp season in my column today. I'll finish the rest of the AFC here on the blog this week.
I have been driving the DeDe Dorsey bandwagon since mentioning him on the Fantasy Fix and an Offseason Lowdown column in March, and there is still plenty of room available. But it's starting to get a little more crowded.
After an Indiana News article called Dorsey and CFL star Kelton Keith co-favorites for the number two job in Indianapolis, Colts.com admits Dorsey is the favorite. The second-year pro impressed at the team's recent minicamp and has the versatility the Colts look for. While the team won't employ a straight commmittee approach like last year, the backup to Joseph Addai will probably get more work than your average handcuff. And since we're talking about the best offense in football, any backup to Addai will be a major late-round sleeper. ... Owners looking for a reason to believe the Colts passing game can improve this year should look no further than their defense. On paper, it could be worse than the unit that forced Peyton Manning to pass like crazy last year. 575 pass attempts is possible, which would lead to bigger numbers for Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne. ... Anthony Gonzalez missed the team's mandatory minicamp because of an NFL Rookie event. He should slot into the third receiver role before long, but keep an eye on Roy Hall, his old teammate at Ohio State. Hall is 240 pounds and will probably be converted into a catch-first tight end. Perhaps he'll give Dallas Clark a run for his job in a year.
February 04, 2007
Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday were campaigning for Saturday's block against Vince Wilfork on the game-winning touchdown in the AFC Championship to be dubbed "the block." Not a bad idea - Saturday cleared Wilfork off the screen.
Well Saturday just pulled off the same trick against Ian Scott on a first-and-goal from the eight, helping Dominic Rhodes get to the one-yard line. Just great leverage and toughness by Saturday, who made the Pro Bowl again. Rhodes scored one play later to help the Colts take their first lead of the night: 16-14.
The Colts have had their problems in this game, but moving the ball isn't one of them. That's 211 yards in 25 minutes. The Colts defense won't wear down if they aren't ever on the field.
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