August 18, 2008
Throughout the off-season, Ahman Green has virtually been ignored by Fantasy Nation. I've never seen a projected starter get so ignored in drafts. We had him ranked 48th at running back. Looks like even that was too optimistic.
After getting hurt in the first play of the preseason, Green may not make the Texans. Says Houston Chronicle scribe John McClain:
Coach Gary Kubiak said Sunday that they knew Ahman Green would be out for three weeks when he suffered the groin injury. That means he might not play in preseason. If Green doesn't play in preseason to go with being injured for much of last season, I don't think they'll go through that with him again. I think he'll be gone.
I don't think Kubiak and Rick Smith would have signed Shipp if they thought they were going to keep Green and Chris Brown. At least Brown gained some yardage against the Saints.
I agree with McClain. While Shipp is hardly guaranteed to make the team, signing him gives them options if they are preparing to move on without Green. Green is owed $4.5 million this season. They may as well go cheap and roll with Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor, and possibly Shipp. Those four players don't combine to make Green's salary. Signing Green was a huge mistake last season, and the Texans may as well cut their losses now.
July 25, 2008
The big takeaways from Friday include Andre Johnson and Marvin Harrison practicing fully again. In Indy, Harrison's teammates said he looked like the same old Marv. Johnson has been running routes for weeks, and caught a bomb behind three Houston defenders Friday.
I'm not sure if Johnson's surgery affected his ADP, but we have continued to rank him second at wideout. This helps solidify that ranking. So does Harrison's return, which hurts Reggie Wayne. Harrison continues to fall in drafts as people overreact to summer reports. My friend Stephen chose him at 5.09 in a draft today. I've taken him at that spot or later. It's a part of the draft where other receiver options usually include Laveranues Coles, Lee Evans, and Dwayne Bowe are taken. To me, Harrison is a no brainer that deep. Could he burn you there? Sure. But anyone can burn you, and that's deep enough in the draft for risk to meet reward. Something tells me he may not continue to fall that far.
July 21, 2008
While the Redskins have started camp, the rest of the league doesn't all get into the swing of things at the same time until this weekend. Once that happens, we'll have more news affecting fantasy leaguers in a week than we had all offseason. It was mostly quiet while I was gone for a few days last week, but here are a couple items that caught my interest.
Kevin Jones could start the regular season on the PUP list. Any downgrade of Matt Forte because of Jones' addition should be minimal.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Recovering RBs" »
June 03, 2008
Let's wrapup my June-induced drawn out review of a recent Mock Draft by looking at some running back flier picks.
Continue reading "Mock Review: Running back fliers" »
May 28, 2008
Jacoby Jones was the quintessential training camp hero last season. By the time he was through, the third-round rookie out of Lane was consistently getting drafted in fantasy leagues. (At the NFFC last summer, I saw an owner take James and Jacoby Jones in rounds nine and ten. Ouch.)
Once the real games started, Jones disappeared. A shoulder injury was a big factor and the Texans have indicated he wasn't particularly mature. Kevin Walter and Andre Davis took turns surprising fantasy owners. Jones is not going to get drafted this year, but he actually has a better chance of making fantasy noise. The Texans are my favorite emerging offense, and the number two role behind Andre Johnson is not locked up. I'd watch Jacoby closely this summer.
May 27, 2008
Since I feel horribly guilty when making it a normal work day without posting something here ... here is a link and a video that took up my morning hours. (We'll get to the afternoon another time).
I will be following up on the Mock Draft results starting tomorrow, along with some thoughts on the Michael Pittman and Musa Smith signings.
The video includes my picks for five emerging offenses this year. I love Houston and Jacksonville to step it up a notch in the passing game. Denver and Philadelphia are two traditional offensive powers that struggled in the red zone last year despite plenty of yardage. One thing these teams have in common: quarterbacks I believe in.
May 02, 2008
If it seems like I'm leaning on you guys more than ever while preparing this magazine, well, it's because I believe in the wisdom of the Pancake Blocks crowd. I love getting informed opinion to consider when making tough choices. It doesn't mean I go along with it all of course, but I do value it highly.
One of the toughest decisions I'm wrestling with currently is near the top of my receiver rankings. I won't say exactly where, but the battle is between Braylon Edwards and Andre Johnson. My gut says one thing, my numbers say another. They are both true game-breakers who have put themselves firmly among the receiver elite. But if you're on the clock today, who are you taking?
April 15, 2008
Jimmy has the honors with the Texans
I was really hoping to have Williams or even Albert available here to improve the O-line. The Texans still may take a left-tackle here. I do not think the Texans will take a RB in the first round as there are more pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball. We need to improve our pass defense by either applying more pressure on the QB or possibly covering receivers (just a thought).
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 18" »
April 09, 2008
Perhaps the most overlooked acquisition of the offseason was Houston's addition of assistant head coach/offense Alex Gibbs. I was reminded of this by the annually underrated weekly team reports on The Sporting News.
Gibbs, the Godfather of the Denver (and Atlanta) zone running scheme, will convert Houston from a part-time zone team to an every-down affair. Their running back battle (Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Chris Taylor) will probably add a rookie. That rookie, and whoever emerges as the Week 1 starter, is going to be a fine fantasy sleeper if only because of Gibbs.
March 14, 2008
After getting a look at Chris Brown's contract, he's almost a lock to make the Texans roster. He could be the favorite to start and I suspect Ahman Green's roster spot is just as precarious as someone like Chris Taylor.
Green got a $5 million signing bonus last year, so the Texans would have to eat $3.75 million of that bonus on the cap if they dealt him. But add up Green's big salary and roster bonus ($4.3 million) and they would actually save cap room (and real $$) if they cut him before Week 1. In the end, Green's contract won't save him if he isn't performing.
March 13, 2008
Every time I think Chris Brown has slipped into fantasy relevance for good, he gets a better job than he deserves. Last year, he was signed in Tennessee when the Titans got buyer's remorse on Chris Henry. He wound up blowing up in Week 1, then did his usual fade.
This time, Brown landed in a perfect place for his skills - Houston. His homerun ability could play well with the Texans' zone blocking scheme. He can't carry the ball 20 times a game, but he could give Gary Kubiak 10-15 productive touches. He has career marks of 4.3 yards-per-carry, 9 yards-per-catch.
Continue reading "Chris Brown still somehow matters" »
March 12, 2008
The blog has been quiet lately as I've helped out on our baseball video previews and started to get ready for a Japan trip to see the in-laws and watch some Red Sox International. Then this place will really get quiet, although the timing feels right as we head into the Donnie Nickey/Dan Klecko/Danny Clark phase of free agency. Here are a couple loose thoughts on the events of the past few days ...
The Texans could be posturing or they could really be hesitant to draft a first-round running back. Considering their system, I'm betting the latter. Chris Taylor sounds like a nice deep dynasty league pickup.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Hackett, Boldin, and Darling" »
December 31, 2007
This is one the key news weeks of the offseason, as we comb through the papers to get indications of where teams will head this offseason before everyone leaves this building. Here are some of interesting nuggets I saw this morning.
* From the Miami Herald, some of the thinking behind Cam Cameron's impending firing:
Continue reading "Offseason starts for 20 teams" »
December 27, 2007
Some running backs having more value than normal in this wild Week 17.
DeAngelo Willimas, Panthers- Finally starting to play over DeShaun Foster in key spots, and playing well. Could position himself for starting consideration in 2008.
Musa Smith, Ravens - The day has arrived! Too bad he'll be playing with Troy Smith.
Continue reading "Random RB Spikes" »
December 13, 2007
Mitchell Report fever is blinding everyone from the huge sports story of the day: Texans-Broncos on Thursday Night Football!
I'm oddly excited about this game, and not just because of the NFL Network spots. Let's go through the reasons ...
Continue reading "Thursday Night Preview" »
November 06, 2007
Pat Dahl knocked out Waiver Wired, but here’s how I’d rank the popular pickups in a lot of leagues this week.
1. Justin Fargas – Who knows how long he can stay healthy, but you can’t ignore his YPC or starting status. I’d definitely take him ahead of Priest Holmes.
2. David Patten – He’s getting the numbers we expected to see from Devery Henderson. The way New Orleans’ passing game is clicking, Patten can keep it up as a legitimate WR3 option the rest of the way.
3. Priest Holmes – I still can’t get over the fact that we’re talking about Priest Holmes again. This is no longer a recommendation for cautious Larry Johnson owners to pick him up as insurance. Priest Holmes will be the first waiver pickup in many leagues this week (even if I disagree), and then he’s going to be in fantasy lineups this Sunday against the hapless Broncos.
I have no clue what’s going to happen.
How can you evaluate a ghost? Holmes wasn’t exactly on the top of his game when he disappeared two years ago and the Kansas City offense has gone downhill since. He’s going to get less carries than LJ was, and probably get fewer yards-per-carry.
Listening to Herm Edwards talk, I think that he’d like Kolby Smith get an equal-or-more share eventually.
4. Michael Robinson – Don’t assume Frank Gore will stay healthy when he returns. If knew Gore was out another week, Robinson might be ahead of LJ.
Continue reading "Waiver Ranks" »
November 05, 2007
So much for Joe Echemandu. Ahman Green predictably got hurt Sunday, but it was Ron Dayne who picked up the slack. I've had a soft spot for all things Dayne for a few years now, but even I had given up in a few leagues after Dayne entered Week 9 with a 2.86 yards-per-carry average.
Nothing that the Raiders couldn't solve. Dayne even ripped off a 39-yard run! If you are wondering how big a hole that must have been, well it was pretty huge.
Continue reading "Don't anger Ron Dayne" »
November 01, 2007
With the exception of Matt Schaub, The Texans are getting healthy in a big way this week.
Ahman Green, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels all practice Thursday, and Gary Kubiak was optimistic following the practice. It looks like AJ and Daniels will play, although Kubiak wanted to see how Johnson looks tomorrow. He was even more cautious regarding Green, wanting to see him practice two straight days without knee swelling getting in the way.
Continue reading "Texans getting healthy" »
October 30, 2007
Running out the door, but a couple quick thoughts on the day's news. DeShawn Wynn still has a chance in the NFL, but the constant injuries make him unreliable. He will be in the mix for work next season, but nothing is guaranteed. At least he showed more than Brandon Jackson. And Ryan Grant just went from a very good pickup to a great one.
* Matt Schaub is likely to miss this week's game, but I'd hold on to him in most fantasy leagues. They were third in the NFL in YPA heading into last week. Once AJ is back, Schaub will be a top-15 quarterback.
* Early Week 9 rankings are up on Season Pass. Tiffany and I taped another Fantasy Fix.
See you tomorrow.
October 09, 2007
It comes from John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, who can understand the play from both sides. It's football, it's unfortunate, but it happens.
Later in the blog, McClain wonders if the Texans will work out Hoyle Granger or possibly Earl Campbell to see if they are any faster than Ron Dayne. After just watching the Houston tape, unfortunately I have to agree. Our man looked like he was running in quicksand, although the Texans are happy to feed the ball in short yardage.
September 21, 2007
Got a chance to watch the Shortcuts version of Houston-Carolina this morning. A couple thoughts from the game.
DeAngelo Williams plays more when the team is behind - Williams had ten looks (targets +touches) in the second half, while DeShaun Foster had five. Foster's second lost fumble in as many weeks won't help him stay on the field. Maybe Williams will be a bigger factor when they head to Atlanta this week.
Houston's line plays better - The Texans were stuffed in Week 1 against Kansas City, but Ahman Green had nice holes to run through. If it was a closer game, Green would have put up big totals. Houston's defensive line, especially Amobi Okoye, also had a big game. This group is for real.
Continue reading "Thoughts on Texans, Panthers" »
September 20, 2007
Profootballtalk.com has an entry Thursday that league "scuttlebutt" expects Andre Johnson to miss five weeks. Mike Florio cautions that he's not reporting the news as fact, just that people around the league expect AJ to miss that time.
It's the type of post that is interesting, but not substantial enough to post in our news section. So I thought I'd post it here.
***
Continue reading "When will Andre Johnson return?" »
September 17, 2007
The Texans are saying Andre Johnson is unlikely to play this week against the Colts, but don't forget that it's only Monday. As we saw last week, things can change a few times in the span of a week.
Gary Kubiak on the matter:
Continue reading "Andre Johnson Injury" »
July 27, 2007
Another reason to avoid Kevin Walter
I originally wrote this Keenan McCardell reaction article on Monday night, before the signing was disputed, reported again, disputed, and now is official. I'm now struck with how similar the situation is to Eric Moulds' signing. An old guy you don't want signed, making the younger options on the team less desireable.
Its not like we needed another reason to avoid drafting Kevin Walter. The nominal Texans starting receiver across from Andre Johnson received a fresh dose of competition Monday with the news that Houston has agreed to terms with Keenan McCardell.
For fantasy leaguers, the receiver spot across from Johnson has long been a sinkhole to be ignored. McCardell’s signing cements that tradition being upheld in fantasy drafts this month. McCardell essentially replaces Eric Moulds on the Houston roster as the heady, slow veteran. The Chargers gave up on McCardell by the end of last season, when he had 36 catches and finally started showing his age. It’s uncertain if he’ll also take Moulds’ spot in the starting lineup, but I don’t think Houston signed him to be inactive on Sundays.
So what about Walter and Jacoby Jones?
Continue reading "Making a bad situation worse" »
July 24, 2007
The new column is up. I look at the top ten touchdown vultures in the NFL heading into training camp.
I wrote a whole breakdown last night of the Keenan McCardell news from yesterday after The Washington Post said he agreed to terms with Houston, but McCardell denies it. Something tells me he will still end up with the Texans, but we'll hold off on posting anything for now. More position battle goodness and some Atlanta quarterback speculation coming up.
June 05, 2007
Contender for best team blog on the web, Redskins Insider returns from a brief vacation with a trio of posts Monday.
Lots of great stuff in there, from updates on Alex Brown and Lance Briggs trade situations, to doubts about Clinton Portis' readiness for the preseason. Rocky McIntosh, who I expect to have a huge season, is having a nice offseason.
Matt Hasselbeck has a good point regarding the new positions for his receivers. It's not a huge adjustment in practice because Darrell Jackson barely practiced anyway. I only hope D.J. Hackett can keep up his level of production at the split end spot. He's talented enough to make any position work and should have a chance to catch more touchdowns that way.
As a Patriots fan, I couldn't agree more with the sentiment in this article. Where are the Patriots going to manufacture their disrespect from? Their best seasons (2001, 2003, 2006) are traditionally the ones in which they sneak up on the NFL a bit. 2004 was really the only season where they stayed at the top of the mountain the whole way. The most disappointing years in the Belichick era (2002, 2005) were ones with great expectations.
I'm not worried about the 2007 team, but it could take the team a while to gell. As usual. If there is one defining trait of the Belichick era, it's that they close stronger than they start. And with a much harder schedule, it's not hard to imagine a disappointed fanbase despite a 11-5 record. We've become way too spoiled.
Could Kenny Irons be used in tandem with Rudi Johnson? Maybe Irons isn't the Rudi clone I thought. He certainly has some of the skills you would want to use on third downs. The Bengals would probably get a better running game if they decreased Rudi's carries by 50-75. The idea could make Rudi a slightly riskier pick at the end of the first round in fantasy leagues.
Keenan McCardell could ruin any fantasy potential that Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones have this season.
Some interesting notes at Bears practice Monday. Greg Olsen is standing out with Desmond Clark absent. Adam Archuleta and Alex Brown are working with the second team, at least for now. Lovie Smith likes sending messages in offseason practices. He's not happy with Brown's trade request and Arch won't be handed anything.
May 30, 2007
Avoiding offseason hype is a habit of a successful fantasy leaguer. With that in mind, it’s best to try to ignore the buzz machine in Houston surrounding the new Matt Schaub-led passing game. Schaub is reportedly picking up the offense well, but Gary Kubiak was positive about David Carr at this time a year ago. Be especially leery of the puff pieces surrounding Kevin Walter, Houston’s new number two receiver. The guy has 47 career catches in four seasons. He’s a great blocker and willing learner, but that doesn’t show up in the box score.
Daniels may be the team's second best receiver
When Jacoby Jones was drafted, I thought the Lane University third-rounder would be the favorite to start opposite Andre Johnson. Early minicamp reports suggest Jones will take time to adjust to the NFL, which isn’t a huge surprise. It would surprise if Walter is still starting in Week 17. It would also surprise me if any Texan receiver besides Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels are worth owning in 12-team leagues this season. Even Daniels is borderline in a crowded tight end field. Jerome Mathis is struggling with hamstring issues again and Andre’ Davis has been dropped by three teams in three teams. This squad reminds me a lot of the Bills receiver group - one truly great young star and a whole lot of filler.
March 21, 2007
The imminent acquisition of Matt Schaub by the Texans makes sense, but it's still a huge risk for Houston.
They are betting big money and draft picks that Schaub is significantly better than David Carr. Don't forget that Houston will ultimately have to eat a huge cap hit to trade Carr only a year after paying him a large option bonus.
Schaub is a great-looking prospect, but he's thrown only 161 career passes. He has a 6.4 yards-per-attempt average in those appearances, with six scores and six interceptions. He's a prototypical West Coast offense quarterback with more mobility than you'd expect. Schaub is an unknown quantity, but Gary Kubiak may have felt he didn't have time to develop a rookie.
I was impressed that Atlanta extracted two second-round picks (one in '07 and '08) from Houston, plus moved up from the tenth to the eighth pick in the draft. It was a homerun deal for a team that is committed to Michael Vick and would have lost Schaub in a year anyway.
Continue reading "The Schaub era begins" »
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