Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the tight end movement:
Rising
1. Greg Olsen – Easily the Bears' best red-zone threat, the athletic Olsen is expected to exploit mismatches this season by lining up anywhere in the offense. Following the addition of Jay Cutler, FoxSports.com's John Czarnecki is predicting that Olsen will "double his production from 2008." We won't go quite that far, but we do forecast a 67/790/6 line this season.
2. Jermichael Finley – Finley spent his rookie season showcasing major knucklehead potential, but he must be doing a 180 this offseason. Both his quarterback and his coordinator have praised his progress, and he has a very real chance to unseat Donald Lee as the starter this summer.
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the wide receiver movement:
Rising
1. Chad Ochocinco – Ocho may have murdered your 2008 fantasy season with a lethal combination of a bad attitude, zero commitment, and Ryan Fitzpatrick's noodle arm, but there's reason to believe that his actions are speaking louder than his words this year. He at least appears to be legitimately primed for a turnaround.
2. Brandon Marshall – As Rosey pointed out earlier, Marshall has thus far avoided an NFL suspension for the 2009 season. He still holds major knucklehead potential, but it now looks like a fullyhealthy Marshall will be suiting up for the Broncos in Week 1 despite his drama-filled offseason.
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the running back movement:
Rising
1. Pierre Thomas – Ultra-effective as a runner, receiver and goal-line option, Thomas has overtaken Reggie Bush as the fantasy back to own in the Saints offense. While his coach flirted with bigger backs, Thomas spent the offseason adding muscle to grind out tough inside yardage and withstand a heavier workload. Jon Gruden's pick as the best-kept secret in the NFL has "breakout" written all over him.
2. Ray Rice – Based on his work in OTAs, Rice is now poised to lead the Ravens' three-headed attack. Already the best backfield pass-catcher, he's added noticeable bulk and improved his blocking skills. Considering McGahee's possible (probable?) 2010 exit and John Harbaugh's belief that Rice has everydown-back abilities, he could see his value skyrocket by next offseason.
Since the unveiling of our first offseason Dynasty rankings back in May, spring practices have seen several players gaining momentum while others are losing steam. Here’s a brief look at the quarterback movement:
Rising
1. Brett Favre – He’s heading into the season as a red light injury risk for the first time in his career, but the Vikes’ offense is ready to explode into elite fantasy territory. Football Outsiders Almanac predicts a lofty 3,500+ yards, 25 TDs and a 66% completion rate for Favre this season.
2. Kyle Orton – Expected to be the starter all along, Orton absorbed Josh McDaniels’ offense and made quick work of Chris Simms in the quarterback “competition.” After two months of drama and speculation, his top receiving weapon is vowing to attend camp on time.
I am in a 12-team non-PPR dynasty league with others in the industry. On March 30, I executed a trade with Fantasy Football Xtreme. The deal netted me Michael Turner, Larry Johnson, Lance Moore, and a first-round dynasty pick (later packaged to move up for Shonn Greene at 6th overall). I gave up Frank Gore, Brandon Marshall, Nate Washington, and a third-round dynasty pick.
We're down to the final position in the Pancake Blocks Dynasty rankings series. If you missed the previous editions, click the links for Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Wide Receivers.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier One
1. Jason Witten, DAL | Age: 27.4 | Value Score: 99
2. Antonio Gates, SD | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 98
Tier Two
3. Kellen Winslow, TB | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 90
4. Dallas Clark, IND | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 88
5. Tony Gonzalez, ATL | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 87
We're rolling out the Dynasty rankings one position at a time on Pancake Blocks, with wide receivers entering the spotlight after a fine Memorial Day weekend. If you missed last week's rankings, click the links for Quarterbacks and Running Backs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier One
1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 100
2. Calvin Johnson, DET | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 100
3. Andre Johnson, HOU | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 99
Tier Two
4. Randy Moss, NE | Age: 32.6 | Value Score: 94
5. Steve Smith, CAR | Age: 30.3 | Value Score: 94
6. Greg Jennings, GB | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 93
7. Reggie Wayne, IND | Age: 30.8 | Value Score: 92
8. Roddy White, ATL | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 91
As explained in Thursday's Quarterback Rankings, I haven't updated my Dynasty league blog since before the draft. Since I'm finally getting around to mass updates, I'm rolling them out on Pancake Blocks one position at a time, with Running Backs on the agenda today.
A few notes of interest on the running backs:
1. As most of you know, I'm an unabashed Chris Johnson true believer. I make no apologies for his high ranking and firmly believe he's a special talent and a true nucleus player for Dynasty leaguers.
2. Tier two is a bottleneck. The last could be first and the first could be last. I'm perfectly willing to admit that the two top rookies may be too high, but the rest of the backs in that tier have significant questions preventing them from holding down true stud status. The rookies, though, have the talent and opportunity to be RB1s for a long time.
3. Clinton Portis is too low, I know. But I just have no interest in being left holding the bag when he falls off the cliff . . . and I get the feeling the cliff is coming like a freight train.
4. Darren McFadden is too high and Steve Slaton is being disrespected. Very possible. I think Slaton lacks staying power just as I believed that players like Willie Parker and Joseph Addai lacked staying power. McFadden still has a chance to be special.
Loyal readers of my Dynasty Rankings blog know that the site has been woefully neglected over the past month or two. Now that Evan, Gregg and I have been released from the basement of Rotoworld headquarters after working feverishly on the May magazine (due to hit newsstands shortly), it's well past time to update the rankings.
As this is the first official update since the April draft, I'm going to roll them out one position at a time here on the Pancakes Blocks blog. Feel free to throw in your two cents.
Tier One
1. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 99
2. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 99
3. Tom Brady, NE | Age: 32.1 | Value Score: 96
Tier Two
4. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 90
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 88
6. Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 87
7. Jay Cutler, CHI | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 86
8. Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 85
9. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 32.7 | Value Score: 83
10. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 82
11. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 81
I hope you guys don't think this is getting to be overkill, but many commenters seem to be interested in this ongoing dynasty draft. So here is how it's gone so far:
1.01 Moreno, Knowshon
1.02 Wells, Chris
1.03 Brown, Donald
1.04 Crabtree, Michael
1.05 Nicks, Hakeem
1.06 Greene, Shonn (mine -- after trade)
1.07 Britt, Kenny (Drew Silva's -- whoops, with Shady McCoy on the board)
1.08 McCoy, LeSean
1.09 Harvin, Percy
1.10 Sanchez, Mark
1.11 Maclin, Jeremy
1.12 Robiskie, Brian
2.01 Heyward-Bey, Darrius
2.02 Stafford, Matthew
2.03 Brown, Andre
2.04 Coffee, Glen
2.05 Davis, James
2.06 Johnson, Gartrell
2.07 Tate, Brandon (Drew Silva's -- long-term flier pick)
2.08 Peerman, Cedric
2.09 Freeman, Josh
2.10 Jennings, Rashad
2.11 Williams, Derrick (mine -- good call Dude Abides)
2.12 Pettigrew, Brandon
Resident dynasty wizard Chris Wesseling constantly drives home the point that late first-round picks are probably the most overrated dynasty commodities going. Also, I thought cgeezy made the best argument for selling the picks for Shonn Greene on page five of the comments. I traded the picks and got the Iowa Hawkeye. Greene has no experience as a receiver and won't play on third downs in the league -- at least for a year or two -- but his fit in the Jets' offense and opportunity was too good to pass up.
I am currently involved in a 12-team dynasty league draft. After executing a trade that brought me another first-round pick, I am armed with two picks in the top 12. My selection is one away. Here is who's gone so far: This is a non-PPR league.
I’m turning to the Pancake Blockers for guidance on my latest article outlining Dynasty league risers and fallers since the onset of free agency. I already have much of it written and plan on posting it later this evening, but I wanted to hear what the Blockers have to say before I set the order. The ball's in your court. The second poll is after the jump.
I wound up accepting the dynasty trade offer as-is following Monday's lengthy debate on this blog. All feedback was greatly appreciated. The discussion was nearly as popular as our first Oklahoma Drill, generating only one fewer comment than the heated Cutler back-and-forth.
The owner I executed the trade with, Smitty from FantasyFootballXtreme, held a similar discussion. For anyone still interested, the thread can be found here.
I am in a 12-team dynasty league with others from the industry. No points are awarded for receptions. I have a blockbuster proposal on the table and wanted to get some opinions. Especially from Scott C. -- the dynasty commenter aficionado on this blog.
Here's the offer:
I get Turner, Michael ATL RB
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Moore, Lance NOS WR
Round 1, Pick 9 Draft Pick
I give Gore, Frank SF RB
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR
Washington, Nate TEN WR
Round 3, Pick 11 Draft Pick
I hate giving up Marshall, but the "knucklehead factor" (a Chris Wesseling-coined term) on Baby T.O. is high and I'm somewhat deep at receiver. There are also several late first-round caliber dynasty picks coming in this NFL Draft. We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1RB/WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF.
This week we did positional rankings. Now we'll wrap it up with a top 30 IDP overall. I may add a top-50 rookies, skill position and IDP, next week. Thanks for stopping by.
1. Patrick Willis, 49ers LB
2. Jon Beason, Panthers LB
3. Paul Posluzny, Bills LB
4. David Harris, Jets LB
5. LaRon Landry, Redskins S
6. Michael Okwo, Bears LB
7. Buster Davis, Cardinals LB
8. Sabby Piscatelli, Bucs S
9. Anthony Spencer, Cowboys LB
10. Brandon Meriweather, Patriots S
11. Jamaal Anderson, Falcons DE
12. Eric Weddle, Chargers S
13. Quincy Black, Bucs LB
14. Gaines Adams, Bucs DE
15. Aaron Rouse, Packers S
Defensive backs, like defensive linemen, are the most replaceable assets in IDP leagues other than kickers. You can always find a cornerback on the waiver wire that will score points and the year-to-year consistency at the position isn’t there. Except at strong safety.
A great strong safety can be worth nearly as much as a top linebacker in tackle-heavy leagues. That’s why safeties make up the top-five of this list. Guessing which cornerbacks will score in fantasy leagues is too difficult.
1. LaRon Landry, Redskins – Landry seems like a sure bet playing strong safety in Washington next to Sean Taylor. Of course I thought the same thing about Michael Huff last year. Washington’s weak front seven could lead to more tackles for Landry.
2. Sabby Piscatelli, Bucs – Big drop-off between Landry and Piscatelli. Landry is worth a top-20 overall pick, while Piscatelli and the rest of the group are outside of my top 40. I’ll post a top-50 overall on Friday without comments.
Piscatelli is undersized, but he’s a big hitter who should challenge Jermaine Phillips for a starting job right away. The Bucs backfield is always a good source of numbers.
3. Brandon Meriweather, Patriots – He’s so good in coverage that we worry he won’t ever become a true strong safety. Meriweather projects to be closer to an Ed Reed-type, which tend to be unpredictable in fantasy leagues. Look for Meriweather to share free safety duties with Eugene Wilson this year if Rodney Harrison stays healthy.
4. Eric Weddle, Chargers - If I was ranking safeties just on 2007, Weddle would probably be number two. His starting job is nearly guaranteed. He's a heady, versatile player, but the Chargers system hasn't delivered big numbers from tackles in the past.
5. Aaron Rouse, Packers –I didn’t know much about Rouse before the draft, but I like what I’m hearing in Green Bay. He’s huge and an excellent tackler. Marquand Manuel is on thin ice, making Rouse quite the sleeper in deep leagues.
6. Reggie Nelson, Jaguars – See Brandon Meriweather. The wrap on Nelson is that he does one thing exceptionally: play centerfield and read the quarterback. But his deficiencies in other areas will show up in the NFL and lead to low tackle numbers.
Linebackers are the defensive position worth reaching for throughout dynasty league drafts. They are highly predictable, can start right away, and have long careers. Their tackle numbers make them the alpha dogs of IDPs. Players like David Harris and Patrick Willis can be plugged into most starting lineups (fantasy and reality) from day one and be left there.
I play in tackle-heavy leagues, so outside linebackers in 3-4 systems get big downgrades. They are too reliant on big plays and not enough on tackles. If your system is structured differently, make adjustments to these rankings.
1. Patrick Willis, 49ers - Willis went fourth overall in my league. I’d rather gamble on Robert Meachem or Brandon Jackson, but Willis is a safe pick. 3-4 inside linebackers have more competition for tackles, but Willis is an exceptional talent that should produce right away.
2. Jon Beason, Panthers - It doesn’t really matter if he plays weak-side linebacker or middle linebacker when Dan Morgan gets hurt or is force to retire. Beason is an intelligent ballhawk that should have at least five good years in a linebacker-friendly system.
The next great Miami LB
3. Paul Posluzny, Bills - Playing in the middle will make Posluzny a valuable IDP starter in Buffalo. Tampa 2 defenses tend to have very productive middle linebackers. I don’t really know why he slipped in the NFL Draft, but the Bills did a nice job with similar players last year.
4. David Harris, Jets - There should be enough tackles to go around for Harris and Jonathan Vilma. It should only be a matter of time before Eric Barton is off the roster, opening up Harris’ starting spot. There is a big drop-off after Harris, so he’s worth a look in the top 35 overall rookie picks. I'd take Harris over LaRon Landry or any DL.
5. Michael Okwo, Bears - The rest of the linebackers may take some time to make an impact. Okwo is the favorite to be the heir apparent to Lance Briggs in Chicago, but he’ll have to beat out Jamar Williams. Boom or bust pick.
I'll rank keeper league prospects at DL, LB, and DB this week, combining them on Friday with a Top 40 overall rookie rankings. Today, let's look at the linemen.
I'm not into drafting linemen in dynasty leagues, at least not the four-round, 48-player draft in my league. The reason? Huge risk, marginal upside. It's so hard to find offensive talent in dynasty leagues, whereas a serviceable defensive line starter is only a waiver pick away. It's a position that takes time to develop in the NFL, time that isn't worth spending in dynasty leagues. Only a few linemen coming out are difference makers in fantasy leagues each year, and many times they are players like Mark Anderson that come out of nowhere.
With that said, here is my look at the 2007 class. We are listing Anthony Spencer, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons as linebackers. Draft them as DEs if your league allows it.
