November 10, 2008
One of the segments we do in Fantasy Fix Live to preview Sunday is to ask five big questions the day will hopefully answer. Since I spent the Morning After doing tiers, I thought following up on these questions would be a good way to start taking stock of Week 10.
1. Can Calvin Johnson survive the transition to Daunte Culpepper?
I've been worried about Megatron's season collapsing for a while because the Detroit situation around him looks so hopeless. He scores every week, but catches fewer than half his targets. Sunday was more of the same: two catches for 92 yards. He didn't score for the first time in five weeks, but he still made big plays.
It appears Culpepper won't crush him, but the schedule might: @ Carolina, Tampa, Tennessee, Minnesota, @ Indy, New Orleans. Don't forget the Colts are a tough matchup for quarterbacks.
Megatron breaks all the rules, but I'd still trade him for any other receiver ranked in the top ten except Santana Moss.
October 15, 2008
I checked the Shortcuts of last week's Lions-Vikings game to see how Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald were used. Furrey appeared to get more snaps than McDonald for the first three quarters out of the slot. When Calvin Johnson got hurt in the fourth quarter, Furrey got all (four) snaps when Detroit used two receivers. McDonald came in to play the slot when the team went three wide.
Neither player has performed well this season, and I don't expect them to make a huge difference now that Roy Williams is gone. Furrey, though, looks like the better fantasy pickup for PPR owners. Just don't expect 98 catches again until he re-unites with Mike Martz.
October 14, 2008
Our blurb on the Roy Williams deal is listed below. I'd write more here, but I need to get the Season Pass rankings up. Basically, this move adds another pair of hands to an overcrowded Dallas receiver group. Romo, Brad Johnson, and Calvin Johnson are winners. Megatron has less competition for targets. The Dallas Quarterbacks have more weapons.
Williams' value probably doesn't move. He gets a better quarterback in a month, but now may be the fourth option in his offense. That tradeoff is a wash. Dallas is asking for a T.Opisode in the next few years. It's hard to see him co-existing well with a similar receiver. Jerry Jones also just handed Williams' agent a ton of leverage because he'd look silly if Williams doesn't re-sign with the team now. Williams' contract expires at the end of the year.
The rest of the impact is after the jump. Let me know if you agree with my take.
Continue reading "Roy Williams can stiff delivery men in Dallas now" »
October 10, 2008
Dan Orlovsky looks likely to make his first NFL start Sunday. Despite the wishes of Lions fans, the coaching staff doesn't appear comfortable with Drew Stanton. They would have to shave off a big portion of the playbook if he went out there.
So does Orlovsky crush the value of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson? It hurts it, but not as much as you think. It's not like Orlovsky can do that much worse than Jon Kitna, who has averaged under five yards-per-attempt his last two starts. And Detroit will have to pass often against Minnesota, because that's the only reasonable way to attack them. Orlovsky could be a high volume thrower like last week, where he threw 23 passes in the second half.
Continue reading "The Orlovsky effect and much more" »
August 18, 2008
Evan Silva is on the Dose Monday, so I thought I'd break down the preseason Week 2 headlines here throughout the day. We'll keep these quick, but they are the items you have to know from the almost meaningful
1. Kevin Smith passes Tatum Bell, starts for Lions: Moves like this in preseason Week 2 aren't always permanent, but this one might be. Next week is a better indication. We'll have to watch closely next week, but I still don't think Bell is a lock to make the team.
2. Chad Johnson hurts his shoulder: All signs point towards Johnson being ready for Week 1. We worry some about Johnson's readiness for the year after a lost offseason, but ultimately it shouldn't affect his draft slot much.
3. Rudi keeps failing: After promises that he'd play Sunday, Rudi Johnson's hamstring tightened up. Chris Perry started and looks like a committee back at worst to start the year. Kenny Watson played behind Perry, although they may just want to see what they have in Perry. Perry should be climbing boards, with Rudi falling. Either way, Rudi is confirming our worst fears with a lost month of work.
More headlines later today
August 11, 2008
Lions vs. Giants notes
For those keeping score at home, Derrick Ward entered the game before Ahmad Bradshaw. That’s something to continue monitoring. … Sinorice Moss has to make plays to get a job in New York, and he started well with a 49-yard grab. … David Carr appears to be behind in the battle to be Eli Manning’s backup, although both he and Anthony Wright played well enough.
The Lions run blocking in this game was insanely bad. Tons of missed blocks and tackles in the backfield. Drew Stanton led the team in rushing. Both Tatum Bell and Kevin Smith looked mediocre, although Bell looked worse. Calvin Johnson dominated Corey Webster while he played.
July 24, 2008
Like a lot of fantasy players, I iirationally like rookie running backs, especially if they are likely to start. But it's hard to wrap my arms around Kevin Smith of the Lions. His lack of competition and experience in zome schemes are plusses, but there are so many negatives.
1. The Lions offensive line
2. His lack of competition at Central Florida
3. 450 carries last season! 450. 450. 450. 450.
If that didn't make you worried about his durability this season, now we have to worry about this: Smith's upright running style. Smith must have got popped at the first contact practice of Lions camp:
Continue reading "Kevin Smith runs tall; That's not a good thing" »
July 01, 2008
So Kevin Jones reversed course at the last minute and worked out in front of four NFL teams Saturday: Detroit, Miami, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. Cleveland reportedly asked for a tape of the proceedings. Now it appears Tampa is in the mix or at least Jones is interested in them. I touched on the topic in my minicamp notes some, but here is what we know about Jones.
Continue reading "The latest in Kevin Jones" »
June 27, 2008
Today's scouting reports from MLive.com about Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey confirm what shay bets they are in fantasy leagues. McDonald is the third receiver, Furrey the fourth. But if Calvin Johnson or Roy Williams get hurt, Furrey is likely to replace them in the starting lineup. With Mike Martz gone, the third receiver won't be worth drafting. So forget McDonald. And Furrey is only worth a look if an injury strikes.
***
News from Adam Schefter that the Cowboys are eyeing Joe Horn. This makes no sense and smacks of Jerry Jones just looking for a big name. Horn isn't good enough to contribute in Atlanta. He's not close to the receiver Patrick Crayton is. This would be a mistake, and not just because the Cowboys are already fine at No. 2 receiver.
***
Najeh Davenport is being shopped. I don't think the Steelers will find a taker, but it's just another guy who might get a job ahead of Shaun Alexander or Travis Henry.
Update: He's been dumped
June 10, 2008
The Jake Plummer saga in Tampa is done. Basically, the Bucs traded a late seventh-round pick for $3.5 million. That's a deal every owner in the league would welcome. Chris Simms also doesn't sound long for Tampa, taking shots at his head coach in the Tampa papers.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Tampa shedding QBs" »
May 09, 2008
So I now know that Steve Smith is a good debate starter. The Smith vs. Colston vs. Marshall discussion was a doozy, setting a Pancake Blocks record for comments. In the current voting, a late charge by Smith made it close, but Colston went first, followed by Smith, with Marshall a distant third. Marshall seems like such a fantasy guy to get hyped up; I'm a little amazed how little love he's getting. And I suspect I may own him plenty this year if August goes well. I trust the Denver passing attack more than Carolina's.
Today, let's look at two more flashpoint wideouts: Wes Welker and Roy Williams. Both play for offenses that should dial down their pass attempts some this season. With Welker, 2007 has to be close to his ceiling. He also was behind Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson (not to mention Randy Moss) in red zone targets, so double-digit touchdowns look out of reach. Williams, not unlike Steve Smith, has one season that stands above the rest, and has been overdrafted in the past based on potential. So are you buying a Roy rebound or does the steady play of Welker excite you enough for an early WR2 pick?
For the record, I'm going Colston, Smith, Marshall. But I barely see difference between them. That's why I asked. And for this debate, I'm not counting PPR leagues where Welker gets a big boost.
May 01, 2008
It's not a good sign when Artose Pinner's signing supposedly scrambles your depth chart. Mlive's Tom Kowalski makes a great point though; Pinner has special teams value. Brian Calhoun and Tatum Bell. That's why Kevin Smith and Pinner may be the safest bets to make the roster. Bell is lightly penciled in as the starter right now, but it would be no surprise if he's cut. Just like in Cincinnati, training camp is going to mean more than ever.
I was way down on Bell last year, and I'm still going to recommend staying far away.
April 30, 2008
While dynasty leaguers get all excited about the new crop of running backs, don't forget how badly the top-five keeper picks of old are struggling. Cedric Benson is being replaced. Cadillac Williams may not play this year. Ronnie Brown turned a corner last year, but he's coming off a torn ACL. Kevin Jones is looking for a job.
Jones' agent said he got a few nibbles early in the process, but clearly no one is in a hurry to sign him. He may have to wait for an injury elsewhere, but I do expect him to go to training camp for a team. I'm trying to think of a great situation, and Cincinnati is the best one comes to mind. There has to be more, but it just shows how fast fantasy value can sink.
April 11, 2008
Pick 15 belongs to Adam P. picking for the Lions all the way down in the middle of the first round for a change. Let's hope he does better than Matt Millen
With Derrick Harvey off the board, the lions do not get the defensive presence they were hoping for. However, the lions get to fill another important need, just not on the defensive side of the ball.
The Lions select Rashard Mendenhall with the fifteenth pick of the draft. Detroit really needs a defensive end impact player but the drop-off of talent after Harvey is too big. Because of this, the logical choice is to draft an all-around star running back who is a big improvement over Tatum Bell and injury-prone Brian Calhoun. Mendenhall brings the element of power the Lions offense would be missing if they do not draft him and at the same time brings so much more to the game as well like catching the ball, inside and outside running ability and a workhorse mentality.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 15" »
March 28, 2008
And they know how to copy and paste a Kalimba Edwards blurb. The least they could do is change a couple words around.
Keep this one in mind the next time you hear a newspaper writer talk about the higher journalistic standards they are held to. I would be more annoyed, but I'm honestly happy to see the growing trend of other media using Rotoworld as a resource.
Update:I should have saved a screenshot because they fixed the article since I posted this blog. We still love you (and always link to you) Detroit Free Press worker, whoever you are!
March 13, 2008
Kevin Jones was released by the Lions today, another reminder that top-five keeper league rookie picks aren't always gold (Hello Cedric Benson, J.J. Arrington, and Brandon Jackson). I'll get to Jones' past and future in another post, but first let's look at the situation in Detroit.
The favorite to start in Week 1 isn't on the roster
Continue reading "Jones leaves huge hole in Detroit backfield" »
February 15, 2008
I wrote up the first six rounds of my "Day After Super Bowl" Mock Draft earlier this week. Here are a handful of notable names that fell far into the mid-to-late rounds.
Edgerrin James, 7.01- Arizona should get someone to split carries, so this is about right. I don't they will cut him though.
Continue reading "Falling Big Names" »
December 24, 2007
Kevin Jones' ACL tear puts the Detroit backfield right where they were at this point last season: in deep Millen. It's uncertain if Jones suffered a partial or full tear at this point, but any surgery would mean another lost offseason. Jones will have suffered two of the most devastating football injuries in successive seasons during the prime of his career. It's fair to wonder if Jones even will have a prime like many of us envisioned.
The Lions have no depth at running back. T.J. Duckett had a career-high 102 yards on Sunday against Kansas City, but he's about to be a free agent. He makes a decent spare part, but the Lions probably want a runner with more upside to challenge Jones next year or split carries. Tatum Bell has been a bust and will be lucky to be in the NFL next year. Former third-round pick Brian Calhoun can't stay healthy.
Like many Lions decisions on offense, their choices will depend on whether Mike Martz is back next season. It looks 50-50 right now. Kevin Jones dynasty league owners can only hope the odds are that good that their guy will ever develop into a true RB1.
December 05, 2007
Dr. Z has a terrific breakdown of all things Patriots-Ravens. He lays the loss mostly at the feet of Rex Ryan, and not because of the timeout.
I know the news cycle has moved on, but it's great stuff. As a Patriots fan, I think a team stacked with two big, physical lines will give them the most trouble. Jacksonville would not be an easy Divisional Round opponent.
***
This is the last time I'll talk about the Lions receivers, but figured I'd include one final update. They will all wind up playing roughly equal snaps, so it's much about about little. I have all three Detroit receivers ranked in the thirties this week, so they are iffy WR3 plays. I worry about Detroit's offensive line handling Dallas' pressure when the Cowboys get ahead.
December 04, 2007
Busy at work today with some extra videos and meetings, so the blog may be light. Following up on yesterday's post, however, I wanted to point out that Calvin Johnson is now expected to replace Roy Williams in the starting lineup.
This makes sense on a number of levels. The commenters yesterday had some good reasons, and Johnson is the most similar player to Williams on the team. The Lions should give him a chance to develop this month. Mike Furrey will still start, with Shaun McDonald playing out of the slot. Furrey and Johnson are the big winners here, but it's hard to trust any aspect of the Detroit offense right now. Using Johnson or Furrey this week against Dallas would require a leap of faith or a relatively weak playoff roster.
December 03, 2007
Furrey, not Johnson, may start with Williams out
Mike Furrey has been one of the quieter disappointments in fantasy football this season with only 522 yards and a touchdown. But owners who have hung on all season might have a decent WR3 in points-per-reception leagues for the fantasy playoffs now that Roy Williams is likely out for the season.
After a shaky Thanksgiving day performance, Calvin Johnson appeared to be back in the doghouse against Minnesota. He was in-and-out of the lineup even after Williams' injury, and was only targeted three times all day. On one pass to him, Johnson didn't appear to know he was the hot read on the play and wasn't paying attention.
Furrey is available in nearly three-quarters of all fantasy leagues and looks more likely to enter the starting lineup than Johnson. He caught seven passes on nine targets against Minnesota for 57 yards. I worry about Detroit's pass protection against Dallas and San Diego, but Furrey could catch plenty of underneath routes in those games. Johnson will pick up targets, but he's hard to play at this point in fantasy leagues. Even can't-miss prospects can miss - at least for one season.
October 31, 2007
This year's award goes Jon Kitna, who dressed as Lions defensive line coach Joe Cullen, the man who drove through a Wendy's drive-thru naked. There's even video.
Before you steal the idea, the joke may not play as well outside of a Lions team function. Heck, it may not play all that well there.
October 08, 2007
I don't edit much out of The Morning After (a consistent problem for me), but one item I didn't get to was the imbalanced offensive play count from many games yesterday.
As a Jerricho Cotchery owner, it was frustrating to watch the Jets run a grand total of four plays in the third quarter. You can't score if you aren't on the field, and that is often an overlooked factor in someone's lame afternoon, especially wide receivers and running backs. Cotchery and the Jets made up for it in other quarters, but let's look at some teams that stayed on the field Sunday. Any teams under 50 plays is struggling.
Continue reading "Under 50 plays equals disaster" »
October 05, 2007
Detroit has worked Kevin Jones into their rotation slowly, giving him four touches in his first game back and 12 in his second.
Tatum Bell started last week against the Bears and got most of the work early in the game, including in a short-yardage situation early in the second quarter. Bell fumbled the ball without getting hit as Detroit was going in for a score. Jones owners can only hope that's where the rotation ended.
From that point on, Bell had three touches and Jones had nine, including a fumble of his own. MLive.com's Tom Kowalski believes it's time to up Jones' workload and I agree.
This is the first week I'd consider using Jones in most leagues. The Redskins are solid against the run, but give up a lot of receiving yards to backs. Look for Jones to get 15-20 touches and have his best game of the year. He should be a solid RB2 the rest of the way.
September 24, 2007
As I suspected, a lot of the "minor" injuries endured Sunday by skill players are going to have uncertain recovery timelines.
So far, Brian Westbrook, Jake Delhomme, Brandon Jackson, Deshawn Wynn, Calvin Johnson, Carnell Williams, and Hines Ward have all received notice that their injuries won't require surgery.
Westbrook doesn't have any broken ribs, and Ward appears to have avoided a serious injury. Delhomme and Johnson will probably be among a large group of players whose status won't be decided until late in the week. It's annoying, but there is a bright side. My boss Rick says injuries are good for traffic.
September 20, 2007
The long-running Tatum Bell vs. Kevin Jones debate takes an important step this week, with Jones expected to return to the field.
It's tempting to use Jones right away, but he's not expected to start the game. Early estimates say Jones will play 15-20 snaps, which means 5-10 touches. He could be worth using in fantasy leagues starting next week if all goes well.
Jones' main influence this week is to keep Tatum Bell owners from hurting themselves again. Bell needs Jones to get hurt again to be worth his high ADP this season. Bell put up 132 total yards and a score in two starts.
September 05, 2007
I'm busy working on Goal Line Stand rankings and comments, but I just got my hands on the first NFL injury report.
Here were the headlines.
* Drew Bennett (thigh) didn't practice again, but Torry Holt did. He's not even on the injury report. You can all breathe a big sigh of relief.
* Greg Olsen sat out practice. I'm guessing he's less than 50-50 to play this week.
* Terry Glenn is back fully practicing. It looks like he'll play, although perhaps not with a full complement of snaps.
* Clinton Portis is fully practicing again, although he is listed on the report. Keep reading reports on him, but all signs are good thus far.
* Kevin Jones finally returned to practice, although not as a full participant. Still, it's a big step. We'll keep reading for the details.
That's about it. Week 1 is always quiet. I'll be back in the morning with rankings, some 100K picks, and the vindication of DeDe Dorsey.
Very interesting article Wednesday on MLive.com about the Lions running game. Tom Kowalski believes that T.J. Duckett will be a bigger part of the Detroit offense than originally believed.
Duckett has no versatility going to the outside, but the Lions don't trust Tatum Bell in short-yardage situations. Bell had a reputation for running soft in Denver, and it is cropping up again. It would be a shock if he was on the field inside the five-yard line.
Continue reading "Duckett emerging in Detroit?" »
September 01, 2007
On my way out the door to the NFFC draft, with one more draft guide update to mention.
Kevin Jones won't be put on PUP after all (MLive.com reported otherwise earlier this week), an indication Jones could be ready to play by Week 3 or Week 4. He may not be a true primary back until midseason, but this news is worth an extra 15-20 carries. That moves him over DeShaun Foster in our regular rankings, while Tatum Bell is knocked down a couple spots - now below Vernand Morency.
August 30, 2007
Kevin Jones is headed to the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) List, which is going to send him falling in fantasy drafts this weekend. We’re not adjusting his ranking on Rotoworld’s cheat sheets because we already had him pegged for ten games and 145 overall touches. That projection makes him the RB38 on our cheat sheets with an eighth round draft grade. That's where you can take some risks in your draft.
There just won’t be a waiver wire pickup available during the season with the high ceiling of Kevin Jones. Keep in mind that Detroit has an early bye, so Jones is eligible to return after five games. Mlive.com’s Tom Kowalski sounds confident Jones will only miss five games, but it’s early in the process. Still, the news sounds relatively good for Jones owners. Kowalski writes:
Continue reading "Jones still worth a mid-round pick" »
August 27, 2007
Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell owners, and prospective owners, need to read the latest MLive.com update about Jones' status.
The crux of the article is that the front office and coaching staff may disagree on when Jones should return. The front office wants to play it safe and place Jones on the PUP list; the coaching staff may want to try getting him back involved as soon as possible.
Continue reading "Kevin Jones Decision Coming Soon" »
August 17, 2007
So we tackled Clinton Portis' declining stock yesterday. Now it's time for Kevin Jones. No one really knows when Kevin Jones will return to action, but here's what we think.
1. Jones should get the primary job back from Tatum Bell when he's fully healthy.
Continue reading "Where to draft Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell" »
August 15, 2007
Does Lemon have a chance?
I broke out the preseason notebook Tuesday with the Falcons/Jets. Let me know if this is the type of thing you guys like in the future. Here goes a few notes from the Lions-Bengals and Jaguars-Dolphins.
Jaguars-Dolphins
* Miami's young offensive line was manhandled by Jacksonville. It was like they weren't there. Trent Green had some ugly throws, but no one would have played well. This could be a rare case of the preseason showing something if the trend continues. If Miami's line gets pushed around like this all August, I'd consider downgrading Ronnie Brown.
* Cleo Lemon threw a few beautiful passes, but they were against third-teamers. He needs a monster game this week for a chance to start, but he's still a big long shot.
Continue reading "Preseason Notebook, vol. 2" »
August 08, 2007
Kevin Jones had a good day in his recovery Tuesday, catching passes for the first time since foot surgery and making cuts. He still appears to be a long way from full contact work, but there is some tangible progress. He says his goal is to be ready for Week 1. We have our doubts.
Jones made it clear, though, he's not happy with some recent comments by teammate Tatum Bell.
"When he says, 'It is mine,' that is when I have a problem. If I was 100 percent, it would not be a question. My goal is to come back and it (starting) won't be an issue. I am the better back and I will be the starter... If I weren't injured, he wouldn't even be here."
Jones is probably right on on all counts, but there is no telling when he'll be fully recovered. If this motivates him to speed up the process, all the better.
August 03, 2007
Lions rookie quarterback Drew Stanton is done for the season. He wasn't expected to contribute much as a rookie, but placing him on injured reserve despite a relatively minor injury is a bad sign for his development.
The number three QB in most dynasty leagues this year, it's not a huge surprise that Stanton was slow to pick up the Mike Martz offense. Even veterans are. J.T. O'Sullivan and Dan Orlovsky should now both have roster spots, and Jon Kitna has more job security than ever. Hopefully Martz is still around to mentor Stanton once he's ready to play.
July 30, 2007
Kitna owners can breathe a little easier
This morning I posted a blurb on J.T. O'Sullivan having a chance to finally stick as a backup quarterback after joining the Lions - his seventh franchise. He's taking on Dan Orlovsky to be Jon Kitna's backup.
Continue reading "Stanton Injury Impact" »
July 19, 2007
Now I know how Bill Simmons felt when he realized that his Top 72 Sports Movie Countdown was more than he could handle. Okay, so I’m not enormously talented, voraciously read, and oddly despised by a large segment of the population that does said voracious reading.
But I do want to get through these position battles before I die or training camp gets rolling, whichever comes first. So we’re going to start cranking through quick versions the next few days.
***
#35. Lions backup QB: Dan Orlovsky vs. Drew Stanton
Jon Kitna is durable, but I saw him get slammed to the Ford Field turf way too much last season to assume he’ll stay healthy all season. Great things are expected from Stanton, but he has a long way to go according to summer reports. Orlovsky is the favorite early in the year, but Stanton appears more likely to take over for Kitna late in the year if the Lions are out of contention.
Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams owners better hope Kitna can stay upright.
July 16, 2007
I love Tom Kowalski's Scouting Reports on Mlive.com, but sections of his Mike Martz writeup are odd. Martz hardly looks like a guy who is going to be choosy about what head coaching job he takes if he gets an offer. If anything, he gives off the impression through his media leaks that he wants out of his coordinator status a little too much. He tries to cultivate a certain desireability through the media, but NFL owners don't seem to share it.
As a Kitna owner, I can only hope his stay in Detroit is a long one. After the way Martz's tenure ended in St. Louis, he's more likely to remain a great coordinator than become a good head coach again.
* Mike Reiss had a good look Sunday at the strategy of re-signing veterans early to anticipate the free agent market. It's hard to criticize anything the Patriots front office has done in the last seven years, but I think they were one of many teams that took time to adjust to the new salary cap increases. It's a lot easier to stay under the cap these days.
* The unbridled optimism about Jamal Lewis continues in Cleveland. They are clearly a team that is going to be built around running the football. In the same mailbag, Tony Grossi notes that GM Phil Savage and Romeo Crennel don't appear fired up about LeCharles Bentley's decision to attempt playing this year. He may simply be delaying further surgery.
April 18, 2007
Josh McCown has the lowest talent:headlines ratio in the NFL this offseason. Each day, I read another update in the suspicious McCown rumor saga, wondering one thing. Has anyone actually watched McCown play football?
Let's review. McCown has played under two of the better quarterback tutors in the NFL in Dennis Green and Mike Martz. Neither one of them believed in him. His numbers in Arizona were mediocre and he was benched at various times for Shaun King, John Navarre, and an aging Kurt Warner. In Detroit, McCown didn't just fail to beat out journeyman veteran Jon Kitna for a starting job. He struggled to beat out a fifth-round rookie out of UConn named Dan Orlovsky for the backup job.
Continue reading "Who wants Josh McCown?" »
| | |
