July 11, 2008
So it looks like Mike Shanahan didn't totally decide to enter the Selvin Young era on his own. Travis Henry tested positive for marijuana yet again this summer, and the Broncos reportedly knew about it before releasing him. Since the drug program is confidential, we can't fault the Broncos for not divulging why Henry was booted at the time.
This doesn't change my feelings on Young. Henry was no lock to make the team even before failing this test. But the news reminds us of something all us fantasy leaguers know: Shanahan is tied to no runner. He didn't cut Henry because he was convinced Young was the man. He cut Henry because he had no choice. I'm sure Shanny likes his young stable of runners, but I'm also sure he won't be shy about shaking things up if the backfield struggles.
June 25, 2008
We can almost look past Brandon Marshall's arm surgery. We can no longer ignore his legal problems. His latest arrest actually happened in March, but we are just finding about it now. It puts Jay Cutler's public admonishment of Marshall into a new light. Cutler was in Atlanta with Marshall and knew more than the public.
He now has two domestic issue arrests and a DUI. ESPN writes that a DUI conviction (hardly a certainty) in September could mean a one or two game suspension. But even if that doesn't happen, the NFL can now look at this body of troubles and dole out their own punishment. At this point, I'd be surprised if Marshall wasn't suspended for part of the 2008 season.
Continue reading "How far to knock Brandon Marshall" »
June 12, 2008
Brandon Marshall is on track to start catching passes with both hands on June 22, and appears to be getting a head start already. He also is studying up on his opponents:
Continue reading "Brandon Marshall can't pronounce Nmamdi either" »
New Marshawn Lynch developments, including a dancing pedestrian and Lynch's previous interactions with the police. Apparently Lynch has been tossed from a few local bars for ordering soda, then pouring ihis own liquor into the glass. Thrifty.
The Arizona quarterback rotation could be coming back. (Although I doubt it). The Cardinals are yet another team done with OTAs this week.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: BYOL" »
June 10, 2008
The Jake Plummer saga in Tampa is done. Basically, the Bucs traded a late seventh-round pick for $3.5 million. That's a deal every owner in the league would welcome. Chris Simms also doesn't sound long for Tampa, taking shots at his head coach in the Tampa papers.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Tampa shedding QBs" »
June 03, 2008
What a busy Monday I missed while flying back from the marathon! (Well, actually I got to follow along on the plane. God bless Jetblue.)
Pacman is back, Odell Thurman never will be, and T.O. got Randy Moss money. None of those three mean nearly as much as Travis Henry's release.
Continue reading "Henry release shakes up rankings" »
May 30, 2008
I knew early this offseason that Jay Cutler was going to be one of my favorite value picks at any position this year. That was before his diabetes diagnosis, and all the great recent stories about his return to health.
Most of the articles mention Cutler's drastic weight loss last season, and how it affected his fastball and overall play down the stretch. I decided to check the numbers, and his decline wasn't as dramatic as I expected. It simply didn't occur until the final three weeks of the season.
Continue reading "Cutler is more than a good story" »
May 28, 2008
I think Michael Pittman is more likely to make the Broncos than Travis Henry and I doubt both of them will make the team. Pittman's signing shows some long-simmering frustration between the Broncos organization and Henry. It gives Mike Shanahan options.
I agree with the local Denver papers' belief that Pittman is no threat to start. Although Pittman was oddly called a power back in multiple places yesterday, he's a role player that can help on passing downs and special teams. He's a sensible backup if Denver decided to go young with Ryan Torain and Selvin Young.
Continue reading "Denver backfield gets messier" »
May 22, 2008
When I wrote about a mid-round TE battle last week, I almost included Tony Scheffler in the discussion. He didn't have a catch in the first four weeks of last season, mostly because of a foot injury, but he was a solid TE1 after that. My projections put him right with the three we debated.
Continue reading "Tony Scheffler losing footing" »
May 20, 2008
By the middle of training camp, I suspect Brandon Marshall's forearm surgery and television accident will be nothing more than a punchline. Marshall is already running routes at Denver practice, and the team expects him to begin catching passes in a month. That's a full month ahead of schedule, and it means the injury should mostly be in the rear-view mirror well before training camp.
Continue reading "Brandon Marshall easing fears" »
May 07, 2008
Some of you thought the Jamal Lewis vs. Michael Turner battle wasn't very close. I would argue that many of the same people thought Lewis was overrated as a fifth-round pick last year, but the people have spoken. Today's three-way battle is hopefully more interesting: Steve Smith vs. Marques Colston vs. Brandon Marshall.
This year looks promising for Smith, but he's annually overrated by us fantasy types because he's a great NFL player. He only topped 1,200 yards or eight touchdowns once in his career. Marshall and Colston have already equaled that total and play for better passing teams - especially Colston. There is some projecting here, but let's allow that Marshall is healthy well before most draft days, which is expected. Rank 'em in order if you please.
April 30, 2008
After reading these comments by Mike Shanahan, it's clear Ryan Torain will get every chance to tote the rock this year for Denver. The question is how much and how soon.
They are one of the toughest teams to project carries on. I could see Travis Henry getting cut, but that's not really something you can build strongly into the projection. I like Torain to get a shot at some point and for Selvin Young to fill a change-of-pace role. That leaves Henry with the rest.
My initial reaction was 165 carries for Henry, 125 for Torain, and another 115 for Young. Evan Silva would give a whole let less to Henry and more to Young. What say you, Pancake Blockers.
And yes, posting is going to be real sporadic over the next two weeks until our magazine is done.
April 15, 2008
Some schedules, like the Broncos, are already leaking out piece by piece. The Patriots are reportedly opening with the Chiefs.
I'll wait to the official reports come out to comment more, but I have to wonder who will be catching passes from Jay Cutler in their Week 1 opener in Oakland. The team signed Samie Parker this week and are close to inking Darrell Jackson. So is the Keary Colbert revival already dead?
Continue reading "Mike Shanahan: Mediocre WR savior" »
March 07, 2008
Profootballtalk used to call Denver the "Island of Misfit Toys" for their liberal approach to free agency. We might have to start calling them the "Island of mediocre Pancake Blocks favorites." Let's not start making Free Musa 2 T-Shirts in orange, but this would be an amazing opportunity for Mr. Smith.
March 01, 2008
As the last dynasty league owner in the country of Keary Colbert, well, this is too good to be true. I hoped Colbert would get a second chance (or any job), but the opportunity to start in Denver is better than he or his agent could have dreamed.
Yes, Denver will add talent to the position. But with that signing bonus, and Brandon Stokley in place in the slot, I'm guessing Colbert will be competing with a rookie to start opposite Brandon Marshall. The Broncos must have really loved Colbert coming out of USC because he hasn't put much on tape the last three years.
And I thought the Saints bringing Devery Henderson back was surprising.
February 22, 2008
Our NBA page has been rocking with trades lately, especially on the deadline Thursday. The NFL won't ever have that volume of action, but the increasing salary cap should make it easier for deals to happen this month.
A couple early rumors: Javon Walker could go the Bucs, and DeAngelo Hall might be headed to the Giants.
Throw in some scuttlebutt about Shaun Alexander getting cut (which we heard seperately but couldn't quite post) and we're squarely in the middle of the football hot stove season. Unfortunately, it will mostly end in about three weeks.
February 21, 2008
Players are usually too proud to take a big paycut to stay with their team, even if it's in their best interest. That's what Travis Henry did Wednesday, and it will keep him high on the fantasy radar going into 2007.
Henry wanted to atone for his miserable final 12 games in Denver. During that span, he averaged 3.2 yards-per-carry and gained fewer total yards than Andre Hall. He gained roughly 500 total yards fewer than Selvin Young after September.
Continue reading "Travis Henry stays in Denver" »
January 11, 2008
Selvin Young was one of fantasy football's randomly big stories all year. He was an undrafted rookie with seemlingly limitless potential while he waited in vain for Travis Henry to get suspended. It never happened, but Young did finish among the top-five in the NFL in yards-per-rush, and led Denver runners in rushing and receiving. And now, oddly, his potential is diminishing.
Asked if Young could carry the load next year, Mike Shanahan was definitive:
No, definitely not. Any time a guy's been hurt as many times as he did, you know that there's no possible way he can carry the ball 20, 25 times a game. The body just won't hold up. He went down too many times this year. But you are looking at a guy that you know has big-play potential.
At best, Young is going to be a high-upside committee member or third-down back. It's a mystery who will start for Denver, because Travis Henry must take a huge pay cut or get released. I bet he gets cut, just like Javon Walker. Look for another drama-filled Denver offseason.
January 03, 2008
If I was a smart blog writer, I’d break up this top-ten busts of the year into ten posts, increase the amount of hits, set up some content in a slow time of year, and everyone would be happy. But I’m too impatient. Let's break it into two more posts, all in one day.
10. Cedric Benson, Bears - It’s never a good sign when fantasy owners are relieved by season-ending injuries. The Bears stayed faithful as long as possible, but it’s hard to imagine Benson being handed the unquestioned starting job next year, no matter what he says.
9. Travis Henry, Broncos - Like Benson, injuries were a factor. But the reality is that Henry suited up 12 times, and he didn’t top 51 rushing yards in his last seven games. What looked like a great marriage for Henry in Denver could end after one season.
8. Mark Clayton, Ravens - No one gave fantasy owners less on this list than Clayton. He was drafted as a solid WR3 (Average Draft Position among top 30 wideouts), and never showed up for his third season. The Baltimore offense doesn’t fully explain his struggles because Derrick Mason has a similar style game.
7. Vince Young, Titans - Statistically, it was hard to argue against Young going into the season. He was a top-five fantasy QB when he played as a rookie. Fantasy Nation’s gut didn’t love him, though. His ADP was eighth, we ranked him ninth. He finished 17th and only 26th in per-game average. Trust the gut.
6. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - Don’t let LJ’s solid three-game finish before his foot injury cloud his season. He was held to five fantasy points or less in half his games, and didn’t score until Week 5. He put his owners in a huge hole, he got hurt, and then he gave out false hope that he might help them in the fantasy playoffs.
We'll finish off the busts in the morning, along with the second half of the Top 30 keepers. Thanks for the patience. In the meantime, check out today's supersized Playoff prop bet edition of the Fantasy Fix, which unfortunately includes an Omar Epps impression. If that doesn't keep you from clicking, I don't know what will.
December 31, 2007
Any team looking to sign or trade for Javon Walker this offseason should read the articles about his rambling day-after interviews. Combine his high maintenance and his balky knee, Walker should realize his best case scenario financially would be if Denver was willing to keep him next year for $7.5 million. That's looking less likely to happen.
December 13, 2007
Strange to watch this Broncos team. Running hasn't been a problem this season (2nd in the league in YPC), but they can't get anything going against the Texans. Travis Henry is in slow motion, and Selvin Young is trying to make a big play on every snap.
More surprising are the lack of options Jay Cutler has in the passing game. The Texans are playing eight in the box all game and making the Broncos win one-on-one matchups. Brandon Marshall is a robo monster, but he's all Cutler has at wideout. Glenn Martinez is a zero, and this post knee injury incarnation of Javon Walker is a negative. And as I write this, Tony Scheffler makes a few plays and a ridiculous jump for a touchdown. He's Cutler's second receiver.
In the end, it's the defense that has let this Broncos team down. 29th in rushing YPC allowed is surprising. 25th in YPA allowed on pass defense is a total system failure. The Broncos will spend another offseason making a ton of personnel changes. Just like they always do.
Mitchell Report fever is blinding everyone from the huge sports story of the day: Texans-Broncos on Thursday Night Football!
I'm oddly excited about this game, and not just because of the NFL Network spots. Let's go through the reasons ...
Continue reading "Thursday Night Preview" »
December 10, 2007
What's that saying? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 349 times, shame on Mike Shanahan.
The Mastermind did it again Sunday, surprising everyone by starting Selvin Young and benching Travis Henry. I tried to warn about the situation last week, but it wasn't strong enough in retrospect. At least Henry owners lucked out again with a touchdown (this time when Young was winded), but most of his carries came in garbage time. Young was a monster with 156 yards rushing on 17 carries, and should be a force for patient owners who waited this long.
Shanahan obliquely said Monday that Henry is going through a tough time right now. It will probably get tougher this offseason if the Broncos ask Henry to renegotiate his deal as the the Denver Post suggested Monday.
Continue reading "Henry and Walker on way out of Denver?" »
December 06, 2007
Now that Travis Henry is reasonably healthy and has avoided suspension, he has only one mountain left to climb: Play a halfway decent football game.
The last time that happened for Henry was Week 4. Last week, the Broncos planned for Henry to play a minor role behind Selvin Young. Young got hurt, Henry scored twice, and all his fantasy owners were happy. The Broncos probably weren't.
Henry's two fumbles, and 3.26 average against the worst rush defense in the NFL contributed greatly to Denver's killer loss at Oakland.
Continue reading "Henry Threat Level: Orange" »
November 15, 2007
I'm not sure who is going to get the carries in Denver Monday Night, but I know the Broncos will have a lot easier time running if Albert Hayesworth is out. My favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, Albert Haynesworth, missed a light practice Wednesday and is uncertain about his status.
Travis LaBoy was also out last week against the Jaguars, and Tennessee's stout defense just wasn't the same. Selvin Young and Travis Henry should keep an eye on Haynesworth in addition to Henry in practice reports this week.
November 14, 2007
First things first. I don't think Ricky Williams will have a major impact on fantasy football this season. He's thirty years old and hasn't played football all year. By the time he's in football shape, the fantasy season will be over. And Williams will probably be a backup no matter where he plays. With that said, he's worth a look in very deep leagues where you can afford a flier. Let's rank my top-five most likely destinations for Williams.
5. St. Louis - Scott Linehan has coached Ricky before and seems open to coaching him again. But do the Rams really need a veteran backup that badly? They'd probably rather develop Antonio Pittman and Brian Leonard.
4. New England - Bill Belichick probably doesn't care about Ricky's negative perception around the league. He knows through Nick Saban and many AFC East games what kind of player Williams can be. With that said, I just don't think the Patriots will feel their need is big enough at running back to bother. Is he really that much better than Corey Dillon?
3. Denver - Mike Shanahan wouldn't relish the P.R. hit he'd take going from Travis Henry to Ricky Williams, but that's never stopped him from taking chances before. The Broncos have shown interest in Ricky in the past.
Continue reading "Ranking the Ricky Suitors" »
This sounds like the most depressing winning locker room I've ever heard of. It would be surprising if it wasn't so ... Norv-alicious. It sounds like the players are trying to get their coaches fired, including some of the big names. As a Patriot fan, I want to send my thanks to A.J. Smith for firing Norv Turner.
The most likely scenario for Travis Henry is that he gets suspended after one more game. And there's a chance Henry plays a backseat to Selvin Young Monday night anyway. I won't rank either player in the top-20 if it looks like Henry will play. Albert Haynesworth's status will also make a difference.
Could Dominic Rhodes or LaMont Jordan get whacked this week? It sounds like Jordan may have taken last weekoff because of health reasons, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.
A former Raider great came out of hiding this week. I'm irrationally excited about this news.
November 06, 2007
After a blazing fast start, Denver's secondary is no longer a matchup to avoid. The Broncos have given up the second most amount of fantasy points-per-game to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. They have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers. It's no fluke considering they are giving up touchdowns (10 of them) and 10.1 yards-per-attempt (YPA) allowed. They are actually dead last on the season in YPA allowed, meaning their overall decent numbers are mostly because teams are running at them far more.
Champ Bailey has been very good this season, but not great. Dre Bly is a little overrated, and the safeties have given up too many big plays - especially since John Lynch was hurt. The lack of a pass rush is another big reason why they are struggling.
This week, the Broncos head to Kansas City. They should be able to limit Kansas City's passing game, like most defenses, but fantasy owners should no longer fear using their quarterbacks and wideouts against Denver.
October 29, 2007
I tried picking the Monday night game a few weeks ago and it went pretty well. So let's try again. I don't trust Denver because I see a different team each week. Let's go with Green Bay in a tight one: 27-24. It should be a fun fantasy game to watch with Selvin Young and DeShawn Wynn trying to make names for themselves.
Continue reading "Monday Night Prediction and so much more" »
October 25, 2007
Travis Henry owners might have been better off with him suspended the last few weeks. After a fast start with the Broncos, Henry was held to 116 yards combined against the Chargers and Steelers. Sure, the competition was tough. But there was a time that Denver could run through anyone. Those days, already waning, may have ended when the team lost C Tom Nalen for the season.
There are a couple other factors at play here.
1. Denver's weak rush defense is keeping their offense on the field. Denver is 13th in rush attempts-per-game despite a run-heavy approach; Shanahan's teams are usually in the top-five.
2. Henry hasn't caught a pass since Week 2. Selvin Young is a better option on passing downs.
With Henry at less than 100%, don't be surprised if Young gets more involved this week. And with a difficult matchup against the Packers, don't be surprised if Henry has another lame afternoon. I'm going to downgrade him in the rankings after thinking more about it.
October 19, 2007
Before the season, I wrote that the fates of the impressive 2006 rookie quarterbacks (Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler) would help define this fantasy season. Quarterbacks usually take their biggest leap in their second season, but all three of these guys have struggled.
* Matt Leinart was ineffective, stuck in a rotation, and then broke his collarbone.
* After being a top-5 fantasy quarterback when he played last year, Vince Young is the QB25 this year and may miss this week's game.
* Jay Cutler has been erratic. And while I believe his numbers are encouraging except for an ugly TD:INT ratio (4:6), he just took a major hit with Javon Walker out indefinitely.
Continue reading "Cutler, Walker, Young continue slide" »
October 05, 2007
With Travis Henry in trouble, is time for Mike Shanahan to finally consummate a relationship with one of his longest-standing flirtations?
These people think so. Now that is a good-looking press conference! I'm surprised Charlie Weis has so much free time this week.
(And no, I don't think there's a chance in Sivananda that Shanahan goes that route.)
Hat tip to Patrick Dahl for the pic, who needs something positive in his life after making so many poor season long bets.
Since the story broke late last night, there isn't much going on concerning Travis Henry in the morning papers.
The Denver Post raises the possibility that Travis Henry could play while his legal situation works itself out. But will the Broncos be willing to suffer the distraction and P.R. embarrassment of sending him out there this weekend? I've canvassed some opinion, and people are split on the issue. Mike Shanahan isn't one to be ashamed of his players getting in trouble, and this is a crucial game, so anything is possible. My gut tells me Henry won't play, but we should know more by this afternoon. The team could blame benching him on his knee and ankle injuries.
October 04, 2007
A few more weeks. That's all Travis Henry needed before cycling out of the league's substance abuse program on October 1. But it appears Henry didn't make it to freedom and that's why he's suing the league in an unprecendented move to stop the NFL from testing his specimen and "suspending from his employment with the NFL," according to Newsday.
There are so many questions that need to be answered over the next few days, but here are a few things to consider.
Continue reading "Reports: Henry fighting suspension" »
September 14, 2007
This is a rare game where an NFC team is a road favorite (and by more than a field goal). The matchup features each team’s strengths and weakness facing one another. The consistent Miami defense under Dom Capers defense takes on the Tony Romo show. Dallas’ rag-tag secondary tries to survive against Trent Green’s still-forming pass attack.
QB: Tony Romo: Must Play - The Cowboys are a big-play team. With Yeremiah Bell out for the year, the Dolphins should be vulnerable to some.
RB: Julius Jones: Strong Flex Play - Miami knew Washington was going to pound the ball, and they didn’t exactly stop Clinton Portis. Still, Miami’s strength should be their rush defense. The Cowboys say they will use Jones around the goal line more often, so we’ll have to see if it happens.
RB: Marion Barber: Strong Flex Play - I don’t love either Dallas running back as a RB2 in this matchup, but they are worth playing as flex options.
WR: Terrell Owens: Must Play - T.O. is a strong choice for our “perfect picks” on the 100K most weeks because he’s the favorite to lead all wideouts in touchdowns. Miami doesn’t have anyone who can physically match up with him.
Continue reading "Cowboys vs. Dolphins matchups" »
September 07, 2007
One of the hardest decisions I make each week is what two games to watch on Sunday at 1PM. Poor me, I know. I want to see every game, but you wind up seeing none if you flip between 5. I’m considering Denver/Buffalo for one of the slots because I’m very interested to see Marshawn Lynch and basically the entire Broncos offense. Let’s look at the players from both teams.
Broncos
QB1: Jay Cutler: Solid Play - This is a good week to use Cutler. I know they are a zone team, but Buffalo has one of the weakest cornerback tandems in football now that Nate Clements is gone.
RB1: Travis Henry - Must Start - Buffalo struggled to stop the run last year, and didn’t appear to solve their interior line problems in the offseason. If Denver’s line is back in form, Henry should have a big game.
RB2: Selvin Young – Must Sit - There’s no guarantee yet he’s the backup, but he should be. I’m praying Young turns into an asset for my NFFC team, so I’ll be watching closely.
WR1: Javon Walker – Must Start - Walker hasn’t exactly had a consistent career, but modest gains from his post-ACL campaign in 2006 will make him a WR1. This should be a great matchup for him.
Continue reading "Broncos vs. Bills" »
August 31, 2007
The only surprise is that Mike Shanahan waited this long to drop a bomb on fantasy leaguers. Mike Bell is out as Denver's backup running back, and Selvin Young is in.
Like most Shanny surprises, he baited us early in camp by dangling Cecil Sapp as the random Bronco to watch. But Young, Cedric Benson's old committee partner at Texans (among other players), looks to be the pick after starting Denver's game Thursday night.
Continue reading "Meet the new Mike Bell" »
August 09, 2007
There are so daily injuries training camp, and most of them only last a few days. We attempt to sift through the noise in our player news by only highlighting major players or major injuries, but the amount of information is still overwhelming. Here's my quick take on what injuries matter thus far during camp, and which ones don't.
LaMont Jordan (back) - Becoming an issue, but not a big one yet. He's about a week away from getting a downgrade.
Clinton Portis (knee) - Just don't know at this point, but it's hard to imagine him starting the year getting 20 carries a game. He hasn't eased any concerns.
Vernand Morency (knee) - A serious problem. Morency is going to struggle to be ready for Week 1, and a committee seems inevitable.
Continue reading "What Injuries Matter" »
August 03, 2007
So it looks like all the Cecil Sapp hype is having an effect on Mike Bell's draft stock.
After narrowly passing him up in my last round of my Mock Draft, I ended up getting him 24 picks later with the 139th pick of the dra | | |
