September 03, 2009
Tiffany Simons and I hosted an hour-long season preview last week, and I've been meaning to post it here in case you missed it. We also taped a new show this week looking at the big injuries and changes which is after the jump. Finally, all our extensive season previews for each position is on one nifty page here. I wanted to post them all one by one here, but this is our craziest time of year and I can barely tie my shoes at this point without forgetting what I'm supposed to be doing. Bring on the season!
Continue reading "Assessing Marshall's risk" »
August 28, 2009
Brandon Marshall's latest shenanigans -- and the ensuing team suspension -- present quite a challenge for the cheat-sheet jockeys.
We know the Broncos can't send him home with pay as the Bucs did with Keyshawn Johnson in 2003. But they can suspend him for a maximum of four games at a time for conduct detrimental to the team. Josh McDaniels' Friday disclosure of a plan to impose an "escalating discipline schedule" makes it clear that further suspensions are in Marshall's future if he continues to act like a petulant jerk.
Continue reading "Forgetting Brandon Marshall?" »
June 17, 2009
Brandon Marshall wants out. He thinks he's getting out too, after meeting with Pat Bowlen. A lot of NFL observers believe Marshall won't go anywhere, and that's my guess as well. Denver has him under contract for at least one more year, two under the current collective bargaining agreement.
Will another team give up the necessary price (a first-rounder to start) to acquire someone coming off hip surgery that is one slip-up away from a long league suspension?
While the Broncos won't just give Marshall away, but the only reason a trade is possible is that NFL teams see the same thing we do on Sundays: the kid is a beast, and someone may think they can turn his life around.
Of course, I didn't think Jay Cutler would get moved either, and look what happened.
The main difference in this situation is that Marshall's fantasy value won't be too effected by a move. The teams mentioned as possibilities (Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa, Chicago) don't have great passing attacks, but neither does Denver. More than anything, Marshall's move would hurt Kyle Orton and possibly help get Eddie Royal more targets.
June 13, 2009
When Brandon Marshall showed up to Denver's minicamp late Friday afternoon, albeit half a day late, it looked like we were going to avoid any major drama between him and the team. No such luck. Marshall showed up to camp, met with owner Pat Bowlen, left the facility carrying some boxes, and did not show up to camp Saturday.
And ... we have a potentially big problem on our hands. Marshall doesn't trust the Broncos training staff to heal his hip, and he thinks he's underpaid. I'm not going to opine how this will play out after the Jay Cutler fiasco, but a prolonged training camp holdout would be not be advantageous for Marshall. He seems very unlikely to get a new contract. We'll see if the Broncos have any interest dealing him.
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Tom Curran and I taped a few Three and Out's this week. In this one, we talk about Ocho Cinco's possible rebound, struggling young quarterbacks, and reveal our team of the decade rankings.
June 09, 2009
Gregg raised a good point about job security with his Shaun Hill post earlier today. Which other quarterbacks will have to win early in the season in order to keep their jobs?
No-Brainers:
Kyle Orton, Broncos – Far from a lock to be a long-term answer in Denver, Orton’s contract is up after the season and Josh McDaniels could go in another direction.
Chad Pennington, Dolphins – The Miami papers have been all over this one. Chad Henne is ready, Penny is a poor bet to stay healthy and his contract is up after the season.
Jason Campbell, Redkins – The Redskins refuse to commit to Campbell beyond ’09. Another stretch of games like the second half of last season will land him on the bench.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders – Russell will start Week 1 regardless of preseason performance, but Jeff Garcia is looming if the offense stumbles out of the gate.
Shaun Hill – When you look at his performance and won-loss record, Hill has earned a long look. Alex Smith, though, has better tools and is the apple of the GM’s eye.
Continue reading "Short leash signal callers" »
June 03, 2009
When news broke yesterday that Brandon Marshall would not be suspended for his most recent arrest, it was cause for celebration for Marshall's keeper league owners like Fantasy Fix star intern Brett Bandermark. The Associated Press and Denver Post thought Marshall was clear to play 16 games this year. Then confusion settled in because Marshall still has an upcoming court case. Let's answer any remaining questions.
1. Is Marshall out of the woods yet?
No. The NFL confirmed they will review Marshall's upcoming case "when appropriate." Basically, that would only be if he's convicted or pleads no contest in his upcoming trial. A suspension still appears possible.
Continue reading "Brandon Marshall: Not quite out of the woods" »
April 18, 2009
Steve C. tries to endear himself to Broncos fans more than new GM Brian Xanders
Everyone knows the Broncos were awful on defense last year: 30th in point allowed, 29th in total yards, 26th in sacks, and forced a league low 13 turnovers. Now that Mark Sanchez has been drafted by Michael R. with the first of two Broncos 1st round picks, it's time to begin rebuilding Denver's front seven.
Coach Josh McDaniels and GM Brian Xanders have done little to add to the front seven during free agency and would be disappointed that T. Jackson and R. Maualuga were taken in 2 of the last 3 picks. Brian Cushing seems to fit the mold of a linebacker that Coach McD had in New England. He's smart and can play the Mike Vrabel role, manning both the inside and outside linebacker role while pressuring the opposing quarterback.
So with the 18th pick, the Denver Broncos select Brian Cushing, linebacker from USC.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 18" »
April 16, 2009
Michael R. offers thoughtful analysis on who the Broncos will select to salvage one of the worst offseasons we've seen from a team in a long, long time.
I've seen Tyson Jackson mentioned a lot as a possible selection at #12, but although Jackson has the ideal size to be a 3-4 end, his lack of production in college as well as bigger needs elsewhere should eliminate him from consideration in my opinion.
With Denver's #1 target BJ Raji off the board in this mock, Denver's 1st pick of the 1st round comes down to two choices. QB Mark Sanchez or LB Ray Maualuga.
Maualuga is arguably the top MLB prospect in this year's draft and could bring needed intensity to a defense that played without any of it last year. Maualuga would instantly team with DJ Williams to give Denver a solid pair of ILB's and fill a large hole in the defense.
Mark Sanchez seems to be the hot name of late and many draftniks have moved him ahead of Matthew Stafford on their rankings. Sanchez certainly seems to be a better fit for Josh McDaniels' offense than Stafford and reportedly has the "gym rat" personality that McDaniels covets in a QB.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock: Pick No. 12" »
April 06, 2009
There is a certain amount of spin involved after any big trade. One of the post-Cutler trade themes is that Kyle Orton was a key to the trade for the Broncos.
Josh McDaniels chose Orton over Jason Campbell and Luke McCown, and "thinks he can win" with Orton in 2009. This may be spin to convince teams Denver doesn't want Mark Sanchez, but it's clear Orton is likely to start for Denver next season. Chris Simms probably won't have a chance.
Continue reading "Orton will get his chance" »
April 03, 2009
There seem to be two diametrically opposed schools of thought regarding Kyle Orton’s expectations now that he’s in Denver.
One school believes quarterback guru Josh McDaniels will work wonders once again, and Orton will become a significant fantasy factor with improved weapons.
The other school believes Chris Simms has a good chance to win the job and a first-round rookie will take over soon afterwards.
The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between.
Continue reading "Orton expectations all over the map" »
April 02, 2009
Brandon Marshall underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a hip problem that allegedly bothered him down the stretch of 2008. Marshall's catch total was not inhibited. He caught 32 balls in Denver's last four games, although he averaged only 10 yards per reception. We can guess that the hip cost him some run-after-catch ability. His career YPC to that point was 13.3 and Marshall averaged 15.0 yards a grab in college.
Marshall also only scored two touchdowns in the last seven contests. Red-zone production is an area of Marshall's game that needs improvement, but that's for another blog post.
Continue reading "Marshall's surgery bodes poorly for '09" »
April 01, 2009
I handicapped the Cutler field this morning over on NBCSports.com. The surprising name that keeps popping up, especially in the Denver Post, is the Washington Redskins.
I put them as as relatively long shots because they have limited resources in terms of cap room and draft picks. And Cutler seems unlikely to go anywhere without getting a new contract.
Carolinaand Minnesota continue to make it clear they aren't in the mix. The favorites, in my mind, remain Detroit and Tampa. They are from the NFC, they were in play before, and they have picks to burn. San Francisco makes for a fun dark horse. All of the above would be poor fits for Cutler's fantasy value.
March 31, 2009
My day was spent, like too many recently, in meetings talking about aspects of my job unrelated to football. I looked forward to coming home, catching up on news, and tossing off a quick post about some light football topic, like making fun of Silva's trade for Jay Z's broken-down buddy.
Instead I got Pat Bowlen's statement about Jay Cutler, a profoundly depressing document. I've believed all along Cutler would stick with the Broncos; any other conclusion made no sense. Negotiations are never over until they are over, but this bombshell is hard to imagine coming back from. As Tom Curran writes, it got personal.
"So tonight (Bowlen) raised a middle finger in Cutler's direction saying, "This one's...for Jay!"
Continue reading "Everyone loses in Cutler saga" »
Owner Pat Bowlen all but confirmed in a statement late Tuesday that Jay Cutler will be an ex-Bronco by April 25.
Prior to 9PM ET Tuesday I would've called the chances of Cutler staying in Denver 60:40, with the odds slightly favoring a makeup after some concessions on both sides. But rookie coach Josh McDaniels maintained his stance that "every player is tradeable." Cutler's camp tried to capitalize on the Broncos' initial trade attempt by angling for a new contract. Ultimately it became clear that parting would be best for both sides.
Continue reading "Broncos blink, plan to trade Cutler" »
March 24, 2009
Gregg Rosenthal and I have come to appreciate Mike Tomlin as an elite motivator as well as one of the best quotes in the NFL. The National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi sheds some light on the ingredients that go into Tomlin’s outstanding leadership style.
Ron Jaworski’s take on the Jay Cutler saga is similar to mine, only with less vitriol. Jaws believes Cutler looks “foolish” right now, but it would be a “no-brainer” for a team like the Bucs to acquire the young franchise quarterback.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Tomlin's leadership" »
March 23, 2009
This week's episode of the Jay Cutler soap opera has a new plot line: Denver's desire to keep Cutler, despite everything that has happened thus far.
While the Jets want him, Peter King and other sources have confirmed the Broncos want to exhaust all avenues to keeping Cutler.
My man Tom Curran is getting a lot of goodies at the NFL Owner's Meeting, and had this excellent perspective from John Madden on the Cutler fiasco.
Continue reading "No one puts Denver in a corner" »
March 19, 2009
One byproduct of the Jay Cutler saga is that Chris Simms is beginning to take on a chic sleeper pick vibe. If Cutler ends up getting traded for a draft-pick heavy package, the thinking goes, then Simms would be primed to take over an explosive Josh McDaniels passing offense.
Let’s take a deeper look at Chris Simms:
He started or saw significant playing time in 14 games between 2005 and 2006. In exactly half of those contests, Simms threw zero touchdowns. Zots! Bubkes! That’s a recipe for a losing fantasy season when your quarterback can’t get on the scoreboard.
Continue reading "Putting the Chris Simms sleeper talk to rest" »
March 18, 2009
Lost in all the McJayGate drama, it's easy to forget there's a fantasy starter in Denver more likely to be dealt than Jay Cutler. Tony Scheffler is also on the trading block, and the Broncos don't even deny it. His agent, of course: Bus freaking Cook.
Scheffler fulfilled his potential last season, ranking in the top-six tight ends in fantasy points-per-game. (His usual injury problems kept him out of three games.) It could be tough to repeat that performance.
The transition from Mike Shanahan to Josh McDaniels figured to add receiving options in Denver, and keep Scheffler off the field more because of his poor blocking skills.
Scheffler is an immense receiving talent if used correctly, but his production would likely be inconsistent under McDaniels. Just look at the Patriots' tight ends over the last five years. A Cutler trade would probably be bad news for his fantasy value, but Scheffler might be better off.
March 16, 2009
While most of the NFL news cycle is slowing to a halt, McJayGate only picked up steam over the weekend. To recap: McDaniels and Cutler met Saturday, it didn't go well from Cutler's angle, and now he's skipping off-season conditioning and formally requesting a trade. Josh McDaniels has taken the un-Belichick-like step of presenting his side of things, and seems confused by the whole deal.
"I would probably be really good for Jay, and I know he would be really good for me,. I think that's the part that's shocking to me,'' McDaniels told Peter King.
Continue reading "Cutler successfully pushing trade closer " »
March 11, 2009
Jay Cutler is suddenly available in my dynasty league. Maybe that's because the owner also has Carson Palmer or maybe it's because Cutler is causing friction with the Broncos. I'm hoping it's the latter so I can get him at a discount.
At some point in fantasy, you have to trust the player's talent over the situation. Jay Cutler is going to be a great quarterback for a long time, no matter how many headlines he causes or what team he's on. And my guess is that he plays under Josh McDaniels in Denver for a while.
I blogged at NBC that all the Cutler drama was likely much ado about nothing. Denver doesn't want to trade Cutler without getting a franchise quarterback in return. Detroit can offer all the picks they want; Matt Cassel was the key to the deal. Question the Cassel love all you want, but that trade has come and gone.
Brandon Marshall's potential suspension hurts Cutler's value more in '09 than all these headlines. No matter how much noise Cutler's agent makes.
March 04, 2009
Denver has lost their mind, adding yet another mediocre running back to their backfield. J.J. Arrington is back, if he ever left! What I wrote earlier today still holds true, except even less is guaranteed for each player. Expect a lot of Rotoworld updates about this situation in the off-season that ultimately don't mean that much.
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Laveranues Coles signing with the Bengals gives the veteran a surprisingly great chance for a rebound for fantasy leaguers 2009. I don't think this a great move long-term, and have my doubts that Coles' body will help. But he couldn't ask for a better situation to land in, opposite Chad Johnson with Carson Palmer throwing him passes.
Silva thinks Coles could out-produce Ocho Cinco with a little luck. I'm not so sure, but it's an interesting thought. More on Coles in column format ... when I finally get it up tomorrow.
March 02, 2009
For the fourth time in his NFL career, Brandon Marshall was arrested Sunday. This time it was for disorderly conduct, apparently for being part of a fight. He was let go on bond for $300.
Marshall came up during a conversation at a bar on Friday night while I was at a birthday party. As often happens once I mention my job, I was knee deep into an impassioned conversation about keepers with someone I just met. He desperately wanted to keep Marshall, and was thinking of trading away LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook.
"I just think he's got it all to take next step. Be one of the top-10 fantasy players overall in the league," he said. "But he's kind of a head case."
Bingo. We read articles about Marshall turning his personal life around, but we still haven't made it through an off-season without trouble. Marshall was suspended last year for three games (reduced to one.)
Commissioner Roger Goodell's stance on repeat offenders to the conduct policy has been clear. Their punishment multiplies quickly. No matter what happens with Marshall's legal case, he's in deep trouble. The suspension will be more than a game this time - PFT speculates eight games. I wonder how many owners will keep him now.
March 01, 2009
Fear not, Jay Cutler keeper league owners.
The Broncos may have been willing to deal Jay Cutler for Matt Cassel, but that doesn't mean they want to start over at quarterback. NFL Network's Adam Schefter confirmed on Total Access Sunday night that Cutler is not on the trading block.
The reason seems pretty obvious: it's not like there are many young Pro Bowl quality quarterbacks available. The Broncos began the process of mending fences by scheduling a sit-down talk with Cutler, according to CBS4 in Denver.
The near-trade of Cutler is sure to be a talking point for a long time in Denver. Ultimately, though, it seems like a big problem in the winter that could blow over once football games start again. At least until Cutler's contract is up.
Leave it to my friend Tom Curran to write the definitive post on the Cassel/Cutler brouhaha. It answers my questions on the mess, so there's no need to repeat it here. Check it out.
While the Broncos were actively seeking to deal for Cutler for Cassel, don't assume he's still on the market. Already, writers are imploring the Bucs and New York Jets to get involved in the Cutler sweepstakes.
It's worth a shot, but Cutler seems very unlikely to go anywhere now. Giving up a true franchise quarterback for another starting quarterback you are more familiar with is one thing. (I wouldn't give up Cutler, either way.)
It's quite another to give up Cutler without getting a long-term starting quarterback in return. Last time I checked, the Jets, Bucs, and Lions don't have those. Jay Cutler is not going to get traded for draft picks, no matter how unhappy he is.
Were the Denver Broncos merely listening to offers for Jay Cutler Saturday or were they initiating them?
It depends who you listen to. The Broncos, of course, say they were only fielding calls from interested parties. (Namely, the Bucs.)
"He's not the only person in the last few days we've received calls on," Josh McDaniels said.
ESPN.com's Bill Williamson, however, writes that the Broncos were actively trying to acquire Matt Cassel by dangling Cutler. Chris Mortensen backed up Williamson's report on ESPNews.
Whatever the truth is, Cutler is convinced that Denver was doing their best to get rid of him. In fact he thinks they still are looking to trade him. That sounds crazy to me, but choosing Cassel over Cutler would also be stunning.
I thought Cutler was in for a long, successful run with Josh McDaniels, but Saturday's events put that into question. I know how Cutler feels; It's hard to know what to think.
February 12, 2009
The next Jets quarterback probably isn’t on the roster yet. But all the attention on Kellen Clemens (An NFL Network interview, newspaper articles) seems misplaced. If I was betting on a quarterback on the roster to play a big role in the Jets’ future, it has to be Brett Ratliff.
Redskins Head Vinny Cerrato in Charge, acting in something called Kindergarten Ninja back in 1994. We all owe Dan Steinberg a big debt of gratitude for finding this.
(Incidentally, there was far-from-confirmed scuttlebutt in Tampa that the Redskins still may have some changes coming, including in the front offices.)
Mel Kiper has lost his mind, saying he’d rather have Matt Cassel than Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers. Seriously, I respect that Kiper does his homework when you watch the draft. You can learn something when he gets into the details of a player, but I can’t take his evaluations that seriously.
The Seahawks are going zone-blocking and run-happy. That’s good news for whomever they draft at running back, and bad news for Matt Hasselbeck. A rebound back to QB1 status for Hasselbeck seems unlikely.
The Patriots haven’t talked to Vince Wilfork about an extension yet, but they will eventually. There is no chance they will let him get away; no player on the roster other than Tom Brady is more integral to their future success.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Vinny, the Kindergarten cop" »
January 21, 2009
Bill Parcells has come out of hiding! (I dont have a picture of him handy, so there's Anthony Fasano.) Miami’s signing of CFL star Cameron Wake is interesting, if only because I can’t remember a CFL star getting $1 million guaranteed on a four-year deal.
That’s similar to a contract a late second round pick would get. He got a little less money up front for a little more over the course of the deal. I can’t ever remember a young CFL player getting that type of deal, so Miami must have had competition for him. Parcells doesn't seem to be going anywhere despite Wayne Huizenga's sale of the Dolphins yesterday.
"What does it look like I’m doing?" Parcells asked a reporter at the Senior Bowl. "It isn’t about money. I have more money than I can spend."
Mike Lombardi picks on Andy Reid’s clock management. And I wholeheartedly agree that anyone making McNabb a scapegoat is ridiculous. The Eagles got beat by a better team on Sunday. The defense got manhandled. Let’s not try to look too deeply past that.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: The Tuna lives" »
January 20, 2009
About a month ago, I pondered the future of Peyton Hillis and thought he had a bright future as a productive member of a backfield committee. That was before The Mastermind was fired, and a few of you have wondered how the hire of Josh McDaniels will effect Hillis.
McDaniels is a pass-first coach, but Hillis should not be hurt by the change. Denver kept coaches Rick Dennison and Bobby Turner to maintain the running game, which will help. If anything, Hillis is exactly the sort of versatile, tough player that McDaniels loves to use in a variety of situations. He's essentially a much younger, more talented Sammy Morris. McDaniels seems likely to use a committee next season, and his game-to-game usage will be unpredictable because it is so matchup-dependent, just like it was in New England. That will create some frustration for fantasy leaguers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillis leading the way in the Denver backfield.
Skinny Posts coming in a bit. And once the Inauguration has wound down, win prizes on the real big event of the day: The Big Game Trivia Blitz!
January 13, 2009
As someone who will also be carded well into my thirties (which start in a month. woo!), I can empathize with Josh McDaniels. My advice: kill the buzzcut and don't shave every day.
McDaniels' first presser was pretty dry, but not bone dry like Belichick and Romeo Crennel. You'd expect McDaniels to be uptight during his first presser when he isn't allowed to give them in New England. He has the reputation of a much friendlier personality.
"I think you'll certainly see me bring a little bit of a different vibe. I can smile," McDaniels said.
Just using the word vibe is a different vibe. But fantasy leaguers, players, and Broncos fans ultimately don't care about his pressers. They want production. I have no doubt McDaniels can come up with creative weekly game-plans and maximize Denver's awesome talent: Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Ryan Clady.
Continue reading "The new Mastermind?" »
December 30, 2008
Just yesterday I wrote that Mike Shanahan the GM needed help, so that Mike Shanahan the coach could do his thing. That's not going to happen now. I still have a hard time believing The Mastermind is gone, at least in Denver, but I can't argue with the decision. Pat Bowlen is one of the best owners in the NFL and he saw an organization that was rotting. He had a coach that covered up many of its ills with excellent gameplans, but you couldn't divorce Shanny the executive from the one on the sidelines. As Adam Schefter said, this was not a man interested in ever taking less power after 14 years on the job.
I do find it interesting that two previous Denver Post Broncos writers who subsquently went national, Schefter and Bill Williamson, seem to think this would be a win-win for both sides. I trust their judgment.
This is terrible news for Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and any future Denver back. Shanahan knew how to create, finishing second in yards this season despite losing seven running backs. (They finished 16th in points, so there were problems.) Keeper league owners can only hope that an offensive minded coach gets the Denver job, which now looks like the most desirable in football. Bowlen's loyalty and infrastructure are well respected. I don't have a lot more to add to our mammoth post, so I'll leave you with that after the jump.
Continue reading "We'll always have Mike Anderson" »
December 29, 2008
DeAngelo Williams is not suffering LenDale White gladly. The production value is impressive. If you click on any of these links, make it this one. What is it about these North Carolina folk and their attack ads?
Carlos Rogers could be on the way out in Washington. This seems too insane to be true. Perhaps Rogers will ask to leave after playing behind DeAngelo Hall late in the year, but the Redskins would be crazy to listen. Cheap, young, prime starting talent is who you hold on to. The secondary is the best part about the Redskins. Why would you want to break it up?
Mike Lombardi, who should be a lot of fun to read during the front office silly season, says Mike Tannenbaum is the new Isiah Thomas in New York. Ouch.
Lombardi also points out that Brian Schottenheimer remains under contract. There is some thought already that Schottenheimer has a decent chance at the head coaching job. Tannenbaum just fired a close friend after the team went 9-7. He probably had no choice, but it seemed more related to Mangini's style within the organization rather than his performance on game day. Mike Francessa thinks that Woody Johnson wants to keep Brett Favre, and keeping the offensive coordinator is one way to do that. The Favre part sounds like a terrible idea.
NFL Free Agency starts early this year, just like the season. And on a Wednesday, rather than the traditional Friday. More pageviews!
Jay Cutler still doesn't think the Chargers are very good. I tend to agree, but they are making it tough on non-believers. Int the end, the Colts have beaten good teams. The Chargers haven't. Even Oakland could win in Tampa with a playoff spot on the line. Denver couldn't beat the Bills at home. The Chargers are playing well now on offense, but they were a Dwayne Bowe dropped onsides kick away from being eliminated three weeks ago.
When I write the commentary portion of SNF Extra on NBCSports.com, half of the questions are about the coaches getting fired. Last night it was: Will Shanahan get fired? Why hasn't he been fired? How can Norv Turner still have a job? Do I think Norv Turner will be back next year?
The Shanahan questions, mostly from Colorado, surprised me. That was a terrible Broncos team ravaged by injuries that did very well to get to eight wins, no matter when they came. The defensive line is terrible, the linebackers are all replacements, the safety position is a revolving door, and Dre Bly expired two years ago. Even the great Champ Bailey saw his body break down on him. Watching Antonio Gates out-run him was eye-opening.
Mike Shanahan the coach is one of the best things about Denver. His offensive game plans work. His team averaged 4.8 yards--per-carry despite losing seven freaking running backs. They gained the second most amount of yards (but only finished 16th in points.)
Mike Shanahan, the GM, on the other hand, leaves a lot to be desired. They go through a different defensive coordinator every year. They bring in every failed high draft pick from around the league, and most of them fail again. Only the Lions defense was worse and Denver's youth isn't particularly impressive on that side of the ball. Even Jay Cutler admits the Denver defense blows.
The Broncos have a great foundation of a passing game to build on, but that's all they have.
December 11, 2008
Peyton Hillis' amazing run as Denver's starter came to an abrupt halt earlier this week. Perhaps the most useful random waiver pickup of the season was no more. So does Hillis have the staying power of Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant from last season?
Continue reading "The future of Peyton Hillis" »
November 12, 2008
Each week, I write up some borderline plays for a NBC press release. When I remember, I post them here.
Tyler Thigpen vs. Saints: Kansas City’s new spread attack has turned around a dead offense in a hurry. Thigpen is a factor in November! (And the Saints best cornerback Mike McKenzie is now out for the season). Mark Bradley, also a sneaky play last week, still qualifies.
Matt Ryan vs. Broncos: The best rookie quarterback since Dan Marino is ahead in his development compared to Brady Quinn. And the Broncos made Quinn look like a Pro Bowler.
Jerious Norwood, Falcons: Quietly leading the NFL in yards-per-carry again and has topped 50 total yards in three straight
Marvin Harrison vs. Texans: Everyone else has given up on Harrison except Peyton Manning. He’s still getting targets and favorable matchups, especially in the red zone. The matchup is right for a rebound.
Bobby Engram vs. Cardinals: Matt Hasselbeck wakes up the human third down conversion.
November 11, 2008
Tiffany and I talk waiver picks below, although my comments on Peyton Hillis came before the Tatum Bell signing. My take on Bell: I'd still rather own Hillis and probably Selvin Young, depending on Young's health. Bell hurts the value of both players though. We can expect to continue seeing a committee, meaning that I've already spent too long talking about the situation. Bell knows the offense, but will have to get back into football shape. He also has no future with the team. With that said, everyone may get a crack at this thing before we're done.
(Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Bradley, both available in many leagues, would be closer to getting into most of my lineups.)
November 07, 2008
After some disjointed thoughts about the Browns earlier today, let's talk about the Broncos.
1. Jay Cutler is the answer to two key questions I think about it a lot. A) What player in the NFL do you most enjoy watching? B) Who would you start a franchise with?
Cutler games are always good times. No one makes tougher throws and he can mix it up with velocity and some low percentage touch passes like he did last night. The Browns secondary is awful, but Denver still had no business winning that game. The Broncos had absolutely no running game and no defense. Brandon Marshall dropped passes and caused an interception because he read coverage wrong. I truly believe they would be the Lions if you replace Cutler with a league average starter. Say Gus Frerotte.
2. Daniel Graham also dropped a potential touchdown, killing a drive. Brings back good memories!
3. Ryan Torain era: fun while it lasted. I started him in two leagues last night and got 12 points. That appears to be all I'm getting the rest of the way. Selvin Young doesn't look close to healthy. Denver will have to go with Peyton Hillis and some players to be named later (Tatum Bell?) at tailback. It's easy to forget they also lost Anthony Alridge earlier this year. Maybe they should trade their defensive coordinator for Reuben Droughns. Expect a lot of empty backfields and pass attempts for Cutler. It puts him in a difficult spot, but he'll rack up fantasy points through volume.
Continue reading "Jay and Silent Ryan" »
October 02, 2008
There was a school of thought that Brandon Marshall's return would render Eddie Royal useless in fantasy leagues. It's safe to drop out of that school. Royal is seventh among wideouts in targets on the season; he's getting chances like a number one receiver. Even if you take out Week 1, Royal remains in the top ten. (Marshall, of course, is first over the last three weeks).
The Broncos throw like crazy and Royal has Jay Cutler's attention. I think he'll be a solid WR2/3 moving forward as the Broncos try to keep up with their terrible defense.
I'd worry more about Tony Scheffler. While he's produced like an every week starter, he has four targets or less in three games this season. That will catch up to him eventually.
September 09, 2008
Remember that waiver list I posted last night? That was made before Eddie Royal dropped that bang thang on DeAngelo Hall. The kid embarrassed the overrated former Falcon.
Now I'm not usually into rookie wideouts. Especially ones who weight 182 pounds. But I'm a sucker for precise routes, and Royal's footwork is intense. Sure, Brandon Marshall wasn't there and Royal is unlikely to top 140 yards again. Who cares? He's clearly the second receiver on a team with a great playcaller and a great quarterback. I'm not ready to call him an every-week WR3, but he should be owned in all leagues for depth. He'd top my receiver list.
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He comes in second on Chris Wesseling's list. Silva, by the way, is chatting at 3 ET on Season Pass.
August 29, 2008
How much is a game worth? In Brandon Marshall's case, almost a round. I never dropped Marshall out of the end of my third round in rankings, but the news that his suspension was dropped to one game vaulted him back into the top-ten wideouts. He's just ahead of Torry Holt, Steve Smith, and Chad Johnson. On our top-200 list, he's now 24th. Don't forget how ridiculosly good Baby T.O. was last season.
August 18, 2008
It's been a crazy day for draft guide updates, but let's look at my other headlines to know from preseason Week 2.
1. After another nice preseason effort, Eddie Royal looks to be keeping that starting job for good. And it was interesting to see Andre Hall replace Selvin Young twice in the red zone. Vulture, anyone?
2. Rams lost two backup offensive linemen for the season. The starters were miserable protecting Marc Bulger again this week. I won't overreact to preseason efforts, but another game like this will be cause for conern.
3. Reggie Brown couldn't stay healthy for another game. He's at risk of losing some targets to DeSean Jackson, who continues to play well.
4. Kenton Keith was the fifth-string running back in Indy. He looks like a goner. Darius Walker didn't get a carry in Houston. I'm guessing the Texans Week 1 roster will include Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor and either Ahman Green or Marcel Shipp.
Continue reading "More preseason headlines: Winning jobs" »
August 08, 2008
Is my Broncos preview below already out of date? Perhaps. I certainly didn't have the information that Eddie Royal passed Darrell Jackson on the depth chart, at least for now. Mike Shanahan is always good for a few tricks, but it appears Royal will start opposite Jackson while Brandon Marshall is out. And when Marshall returns, Royal has a decent chance of keeping the gig. Keary Colbert is nowhere to be found.
While I still don't like taking rookie wideouts in redraft leagues, my optimistic ranking of Royal in dynasty leagues is looking pretty sweet ... for now. Royal will move ahead of Devin Thomas and James Hardy as the top-ranked rookie wideout in our latest projections, even if that only makes him a late-round pick. In a perfect world, he could evolve into the T.J. Houshmandzadeh to Marshall's Chad Johnson. But that will still take a year or two.
August 07, 2008
Check around your favorite team's official website this week and you'll see a new page up: Depth Charts! Teams are required to give their first depth charts of the season before their first preseason game - this week. These are fun to look at, but the coaches plead with us not to take them seriously. Sometimes, they are ridiculous. Like the Falcons putting Matt Ryan fourth at quarterback. Sometimes, coaches use them as motivational tools.
Whatever the reason, there are always a few eye openers. Here were the ones that caught my eye this week:
Continue reading "Depth Chart Shenanigans" »
August 06, 2008
He coulda been a contender. Ryan Torain had every shot to start games for the Broncos this season and excel before he broke his elbow Wednesday. Judging by Mike Shanahan's depressed comments Wednesday comparing Torain to Terrell Davis, the rookie may have started sooner than later.
"One of the most gifted running backs that I’ve been around for a long time," Shanny said. He could miss anywhere from 6 weeks to three months, depending on which Denver paper you believe. An MRI should give us a better idea on the ligament damage.
Continue reading "Torain's injury opens door for other Broncos" »
July 29, 2008
Darrell Jackson was on my busts list last season, but he made the sleeper list in this year's draft guide. It's all about value and draft slot; you are getting a lot of upside with Jackson for a WR5 pick in Denver. (Taken as a WR3 as a 49er, not so exciting).
Early developments support Jackson's case. He is playing ahead of Keary Colbert at Broncos camp. And if Brandon Marshall's suspension is long, as expected, Jackson will get even more targets during the first portion of the season. Once Marshall's suspension comes down, look for Jackson to get a small bump in the projections.
The system and quarterback are plusses in Denver. While Jackson will drop plenty of passes, he knows the system and can get open. Like in Seattle, Jackson could be a far better fantasy player than he is NFL player this season.
July 11, 2008
So it looks like Mike Shanahan didn't totally decide to enter the Selvin Young era on his own. Travis Henry tested positive for marijuana yet again this summer, and the Broncos reportedly knew about it before releasing him. Since the drug program is confidential, we can't fault the Broncos for not divulging why Henry was booted at the time.
This doesn't change my feelings on Young. Henry was no lock to make the team even before failing this test. But the news reminds us of something all us fantasy leaguers know: Shanahan is tied to no runner. He didn't cut Henry because he was convinced Young was the man. He cut Henry because he had no choice. I'm sure Shanny likes his young stable of runners, but I'm also sure he won't be shy about shaking things up if the backfield struggles.
June 25, 2008
We can almost look past Brandon Marshall's arm surgery. We can no longer ignore his legal problems. His latest arrest actually happened in March, but we are just finding about it now. It puts Jay Cutler's public admonishment of Marshall into a new light. Cutler was in Atlanta with Marshall and knew more than the public.
He now has two domestic issue arrests and a DUI. ESPN writes that a DUI conviction (hardly a certainty) in September could mean a one or two game suspension. But even if that doesn't happen, the NFL can now look at this body of troubles and dole out their own punishment. At this point, I'd be surprised if Marshall wasn't suspended for part of the 2008 season.
Continue reading "How far to knock Brandon Marshall" »
June 12, 2008
Brandon Marshall is on track to start catching passes with both hands on June 22, and appears to be getting a head start already. He also is studying up on his opponents:
Continue reading "Brandon Marshall can't pronounce Nmamdi either" »
New Marshawn Lynch developments, including a dancing pedestrian and Lynch's previous interactions with the police. Apparently Lynch has been tossed from a few local bars for ordering soda, then pouring ihis own liquor into the glass. Thrifty.
The Arizona quarterback rotation could be coming back. (Although I doubt it). The Cardinals are yet another team done with OTAs this week.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: BYOL" »
June 10, 2008
The Jake Plummer saga in Tampa is done. Basically, the Bucs traded a late seventh-round pick for $3.5 million. That's a deal every owner in the league would welcome. Chris Simms also doesn't sound long for Tampa, taking shots at his head coach in the Tampa papers.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Tampa shedding QBs" »
June 03, 2008
What a busy Monday I missed while flying back from the marathon! (Well, actually I got to follow along on the plane. God bless Jetblue.)
Pacman is back, Odell Thurman never will be, and T.O. got Randy Moss money. None of those three mean nearly as much as Travis Henry's release.
Continue reading "Henry release shakes up rankings" »
May 30, 2008
I knew early this offseason that Jay Cutler was going to be one of my favorite value picks at any position this year. That was before his diabetes diagnosis, and all the great recent stories about his return to health.
Most of the articles mention Cutler's drastic weight loss last season, and how it affected his fastball and overall play down the stretch. I decided to check the numbers, and his decline wasn't as dramatic as I expected. It simply didn't occur until the final three weeks of the season.
Continue reading "Cutler is more than a good story" »
May 28, 2008
I think Michael Pittman is more likely to make the Broncos than Travis Henry and I doubt both of them will make the team. Pittman's signing shows some long-simmering frustration between the Broncos organization and Henry. It gives Mike Shanahan options.
I agree with the local Denver papers' belief that Pittman is no threat to start. Although Pittman was oddly called a power back in multiple places yesterday, he's a role player that can help on passing downs and special teams. He's a sensible backup if Denver decided to go young with Ryan Torain and Selvin Young.
Continue reading "Denver backfield gets messier" »
May 22, 2008
When I wrote about a mid-round TE battle last week, I almost included Tony Scheffler in the discussion. He didn't have a catch in the first four weeks of last season, mostly because of a foot injury, but he was a solid TE1 after that. My projections put him right with the three we debated.
Continue reading "Tony Scheffler losing footing" »
May 20, 2008
By the middle of training camp, I suspect Brandon Marshall's forearm surgery and television accident will be nothing more than a punchline. Marshall is already running routes at Denver practice, and the team expects him to begin catching passes in a month. That's a full month ahead of schedule, and it means the injury should mostly be in the rear-view mirror well before training camp.
Continue reading "Brandon Marshall easing fears" »
May 07, 2008
Some of you thought the Jamal Lewis vs. Michael Turner battle wasn't very close. I would argue that many of the same people thought Lewis was overrated as a fifth-round pick last year, but the people have spoken. Today's three-way battle is hopefully more interesting: Steve Smith vs. Marques Colston vs. Brandon Marshall.
This year looks promising for Smith, but he's annually overrated by us fantasy types because he's a great NFL player. He only topped 1,200 yards or eight touchdowns once in his career. Marshall and Colston have already equaled that total and play for better passing teams - especially Colston. There is some projecting here, but let's allow that Marshall is healthy well before most draft days, which is expected. Rank 'em in order if you please.
April 30, 2008
After reading these comments by Mike Shanahan, it's clear Ryan Torain will get every chance to tote the rock this year for Denver. The question is how much and how soon.
They are one of the toughest teams to project carries on. I could see Travis Henry getting cut, but that's not really something you can build strongly into the projection. I like Torain to get a shot at some point and for Selvin Young to fill a change-of-pace role. That leaves Henry with the rest.
My initial reaction was 165 carries for Henry, 125 for Torain, and another 115 for Young. Evan Silva would give a whole let less to Henry and more to Young. What say you, Pancake Blockers.
And yes, posting is going to be real sporadic over the next two weeks until our magazine is done.
April 15, 2008
Some schedules, like the Broncos, are already leaking out piece by piece. The Patriots are reportedly opening with the Chiefs.
I'll wait to the official reports come out to comment more, but I have to wonder who will be catching passes from Jay Cutler in their Week 1 opener in Oakland. The team signed Samie Parker this week and are close to inking Darrell Jackson. So is the Keary Colbert revival already dead?
Continue reading "Mike Shanahan: Mediocre WR savior" »
March 07, 2008
Profootballtalk used to call Denver the "Island of Misfit Toys" for their liberal approach to free agency. We might have to start calling them the "Island of mediocre Pancake Blocks favorites." Let's not start making Free Musa 2 T-Shirts in orange, but this would be an amazing opportunity for Mr. Smith.
March 01, 2008
As the last dynasty league owner in the country of Keary Colbert, well, this is too good to be true. I hoped Colbert would get a second chance (or any job), but the opportunity to start in Denver is better than he or his agent could have dreamed.
Yes, Denver will add talent to the position. But with that signing bonus, and Brandon Stokley in place in the slot, I'm guessing Colbert will be competing with a rookie to start opposite Brandon Marshall. The Broncos must have really loved Colbert coming out of USC because he hasn't put much on tape the last three years.
And I thought the Saints bringing Devery Henderson back was surprising.
February 22, 2008
Our NBA page has been rocking with trades lately, especially on the deadline Thursday. The NFL won't ever have that volume of action, but the increasing salary cap should make it easier for deals to happen this month.
A couple early rumors: Javon Walker could go the Bucs, and DeAngelo Hall might be headed to the Giants.
Throw in some scuttlebutt about Shaun Alexander getting cut (which we heard seperately but couldn't quite post) and we're squarely in the middle of the football hot stove season. Unfortunately, it will mostly end in about three weeks.
February 21, 2008
Players are usually too proud to take a big paycut to stay with their team, even if it's in their best interest. That's what Travis Henry did Wednesday, and it will keep him high on the fantasy radar going into 2007.
Henry wanted to atone for his miserable final 12 games in Denver. During that span, he averaged 3.2 yards-per-carry and gained fewer total yards than Andre Hall. He gained roughly 500 total yards fewer than Selvin Young after September.
Continue reading "Travis Henry stays in Denver" »
January 11, 2008
Selvin Young was one of fantasy football's randomly big stories all year. He was an undrafted rookie with seemlingly limitless potential while he waited in vain for Travis Henry to get suspended. It never happened, but Young did finish among the top-five in the NFL in yards-per-rush, and led Denver runners in rushing and receiving. And now, oddly, his potential is diminishing.
Asked if Young could carry the load next year, Mike Shanahan was definitive:
No, definitely not. Any time a guy's been hurt as many times as he did, you know that there's no possible way he can carry the ball 20, 25 times a game. The body just won't hold up. He went down too many times this year. But you are looking at a guy that you know has big-play potential.
At best, Young is going to be a high-upside committee member or third-down back. It's a mystery who will start for Denver, because Travis Henry must take a huge pay cut or get released. I bet he gets cut, just like Javon Walker. Look for another drama-filled Denver offseason.
January 03, 2008
If I was a smart blog writer, I’d break up this top-ten busts of the year into ten posts, increase the amount of hits, set up some content in a slow time of year, and everyone would be happy. But I’m too impatient. Let's break it into two more posts, all in one day.
10. Cedric Benson, Bears - It’s never a good sign when fantasy owners are relieved by season-ending injuries. The Bears stayed faithful as long as possible, but it’s hard to imagine Benson being handed the unquestioned starting job next year, no matter what he says.
9. Travis Henry, Broncos - Like Benson, injuries were a factor. But the reality is that Henry suited up 12 times, and he didn’t top 51 rushing yards in his last seven games. What looked like a great marriage for Henry in Denver could end after one season.
8. Mark Clayton, Ravens - No one gave fantasy owners less on this list than Clayton. He was drafted as a solid WR3 (Average Draft Position among top 30 wideouts), and never showed up for his third season. The Baltimore offense doesn’t fully explain his struggles because Derrick Mason has a similar style game.
7. Vince Young, Titans - Statistically, it was hard to argue against Young going into the season. He was a top-five fantasy QB when he played as a rookie. Fantasy Nation’s gut didn’t love him, though. His ADP was eighth, we ranked him ninth. He finished 17th and only 26th in per-game average. Trust the gut.
6. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - Don’t let LJ’s solid three-game finish before his foot injury cloud his season. He was held to five fantasy points or less in half his games, and didn’t score until Week 5. He put his owners in a huge hole, he got hurt, and then he gave out false hope that he might help them in the fantasy playoffs.
We'll finish off the busts in the morning, along with the second half of the Top 30 keepers. Thanks for the patience. In the meantime, check out today's supersized Playoff prop bet edition of the Fantasy Fix, which unfortunately includes an Omar Epps impression. If that doesn't keep you from clicking, I don't know what will.
December 31, 2007
Any team looking to sign or trade for Javon Walker this offseason should read the articles about his rambling day-after interviews. Combine his high maintenance and his balky knee, Walker should realize his best case scenario financially would be if Denver was willing to keep him next year for $7.5 million. That's looking less likely to happen.
December 13, 2007
Strange to watch this Broncos team. Running hasn't been a problem this season (2nd in the league in YPC), but they can't get anything going against the Texans. Travis Henry is in slow motion, and Selvin Young is trying to make a big play on every snap.
More surprising are the lack of options Jay Cutler has in the passing game. The Texans are playing eight in the box all game and making the Broncos win one-on-one matchups. Brandon Marshall is a robo monster, but he's all Cutler has at wideout. Glenn Martinez is a zero, and this post knee injury incarnation of Javon Walker is a negative. And as I write this, Tony Scheffler makes a few plays and a ridiculous jump for a touchdown. He's Cutler's second receiver.
In the end, it's the defense that has let this Broncos team down. 29th in rushing YPC allowed is surprising. 25th in YPA allowed on pass defense is a total system failure. The Broncos will spend another offseason making a ton of personnel changes. Just like they always do.
Mitchell Report fever is blinding everyone from the huge sports story of the day: Texans-Broncos on Thursday Night Football!
I'm oddly excited about this game, and not just because of the NFL Network spots. Let's go through the reasons ...
Continue reading "Thursday Night Preview" »
December 10, 2007
What's that saying? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 349 times, shame on Mike Shanahan.
The Mastermind did it again Sunday, surprising everyone by starting Selvin Young and benching Travis Henry. I tried to warn about the situation last week, but it wasn't strong enough in retrospect. At least Henry owners lucked out again with a touchdown (this time when Young was winded), but most of his carries came in garbage time. Young was a monster with 156 yards rushing on 17 carries, and should be a force for patient owners who waited this long.
Shanahan obliquely said Monday that Henry is going through a tough time right now. It will probably get tougher this offseason if the Broncos ask Henry to renegotiate his deal as the the Denver Post suggested Monday.
Continue reading "Henry and Walker on way out of Denver?" »
December 06, 2007
Now that Travis Henry is reasonably healthy and has avoided suspension, he has only one mountain left to climb: Play a halfway decent football game.
The last time that happened for Henry was Week 4. Last week, the Broncos planned for Henry to play a minor role behind Selvin Young. Young got hurt, Henry scored twice, and all his fantasy owners were happy. The Broncos probably weren't.
Henry's two fumbles, and 3.26 average against the worst rush defense in the NFL contributed greatly to Denver's killer loss at Oakland.
Continue reading "Henry Threat Level: Orange" »
November 15, 2007
I'm not sure who is going to get the carries in Denver Monday Night, but I know the Broncos will have a lot easier time running if Albert Hayesworth is out. My favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, Albert Haynesworth, missed a light practice Wednesday and is uncertain about his status.
Travis LaBoy was also out last week against the Jaguars, and Tennessee's stout defense just wasn't the same. Selvin Young and Travis Henry should keep an eye on Haynesworth in addition to Henry in practice reports this week.
November 14, 2007
First things first. I don't think Ricky Williams will have a major impact on fantasy football this season. He's thirty years old and hasn't played football all year. By the time he's in football shape, the fantasy season will be over. And Williams will probably be a backup no matter where he plays. With that said, he's worth a look in very deep leagues where you can afford a flier. Let's rank my top-five most likely destinations for Williams.
5. St. Louis - Scott Linehan has coached Ricky before and seems open to coaching him again. But do the Rams really need a veteran backup that badly? They'd probably rather develop Antonio Pittman and Brian Leonard.
4. New England - Bill Belichick probably doesn't care about Ricky's negative perception around the league. He knows through Nick Saban and many AFC East games what kind of player Williams can be. With that said, I just don't think the Patriots will feel their need is big enough at running back to bother. Is he really that much better than Corey Dillon?
3. Denver - Mike Shanahan wouldn't relish the P.R. hit he'd take going from Travis Henry to Ricky Williams, but that's never stopped him from taking chances before. The Broncos have shown interest in Ricky in the past.
Continue reading "Ranking the Ricky Suitors" »
This sounds like the most depressing winning locker room I've ever heard of. It would be surprising if it wasn't so ... Norv-alicious. It sounds like the players are trying to get their coaches fired, including some of the big names. As a Patriot fan, I want to send my thanks to A.J. Smith for firing Norv Turner.
The most likely scenario for Travis Henry is that he gets suspended after one more game. And there's a chance Henry plays a backseat to Selvin Young Monday night anyway. I won't rank either player in the top-20 if it looks like Henry will play. Albert Haynesworth's status will also make a difference.
Could Dominic Rhodes or LaMont Jordan get whacked this week? It sounds like Jordan may have taken last weekoff because of health reasons, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.
A former Raider great came out of hiding this week. I'm irrationally excited about this news.
November 06, 2007
After a blazing fast start, Denver's secondary is no longer a matchup to avoid. The Broncos have given up the second most amount of fantasy points-per-game to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. They have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers. It's no fluke considering they are giving up touchdowns (10 of them) and 10.1 yards-per-attempt (YPA) allowed. They are actually dead last on the season in YPA allowed, meaning their overall decent numbers are mostly because teams are running at them far more.
Champ Bailey has been very good this season, but not great. Dre Bly is a little overrated, and the safeties have given up too many big plays - especially since John Lynch was hurt. The lack of a pass rush is another big reason why they are struggling.
This week, the Broncos head to Kansas City. They should be able to limit Kansas City's passing game, like most defenses, but fantasy owners should no longer fear using their quarterbacks and wideouts against Denver.
October 29, 2007
I tried picking the Monday night game a few weeks ago and it went pretty well. So let's try again. I don't trust Denver because I see a different team each week. Let's go with Green Bay in a tight one: 27-24. It should be a fun fantasy game to watch with Selvin Young and DeShawn Wynn trying to make names for themselves.
Continue reading "Monday Night Prediction and so much more" »
October 25, 2007
Travis Henry owners might have been better off with him suspended the last few weeks. After a fast start with the Broncos, Henry was held to 116 yards combined against the Chargers and Steelers. Sure, the competition was tough. But there was a time that Denver could run through anyone. Those days, already waning, may have ended when the team lost C Tom Nalen for the season.
There are a couple other factors at play here.
1. Denver's weak rush defense is keeping their offense on the field. Denver is 13th in rush attempts-per-game despite a run-heavy approach; Shanahan's teams are usually in the top-five.
2. Henry hasn't caught a pass since Week 2. Selvin Young is a better option on passing downs.
With Henry at less than 100%, don't be surprised if Young gets more involved this week. And with a difficult matchup against the Packers, don't be surprised if Henry has another lame afternoon. I'm going to downgrade him in the rankings after thinking more about it.
October 19, 2007
Before the season, I wrote that the fates of the impressive 2006 rookie quarterbacks (Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler) would help define this fantasy season. Quarterbacks usually take their biggest leap in their second season, but all three of these guys have struggled.
* Matt Leinart was ineffective, stuck in a rotation, and then broke his collarbone.
* After being a top-5 fantasy quarterback when he played last year, Vince Young is the QB25 this year and may miss this week's game.
* Jay Cutler has been erratic. And while I believe his numbers are encouraging except for an ugly TD:INT ratio (4:6), he just took a major hit with Javon Walker out indefinitely.
Continue reading "Cutler, Walker, Young continue slide" »
October 05, 2007
With Travis Henry in trouble, is time for Mike Shanahan to finally consummate a relationship with one of his longest-standing flirtations?
These people think so. Now that is a good-looking press conference! I'm surprised Charlie Weis has so much free time this week.
(And no, I don't think there's a chance in Sivananda that Shanahan goes that route.)
Hat tip to Patrick Dahl for the pic, who needs something positive in his life after making so many poor season long bets.
Since the story broke late last night, there isn't much going on concerning Travis Henry in the morning papers.
The Denver Post raises the possibility that Travis Henry could play while his legal situation works itself out. But will the Broncos be willing to suffer the distraction and P.R. embarrassment of sending him out there this weekend? I've canvassed some opinion, and people are split on the issue. Mike Shanahan isn't one to be ashamed of his players getting in trouble, and this is a crucial game, so anything is possible. My gut tells me Henry won't play, but we should know more by this afternoon. The team could blame benching him on his knee and ankle injuries.
October 04, 2007
A few more weeks. That's all Travis Henry needed before cycling out of the league's substance abuse program on October 1. But it appears Henry didn't make it to freedom and that's why he's suing the league in an unprecendented move to stop the NFL from testing his specimen and "suspending from his employment with the NFL," according to Newsday.
There are so many questions that need to be answered over the next few days, but here are a few things to consider.
Continue reading "Reports: Henry fighting suspension" »
September 14, 2007
This is a rare game where an NFC team is a road favorite (and by more than a field goal). The matchup features each team’s strengths and weakness facing one another. The consistent Miami defense under Dom Capers defense takes on the Tony Romo show. Dallas’ rag-tag secondary tries to survive against Trent Green’s still-forming pass attack.
QB: Tony Romo: Must Play - The Cowboys are a big-play team. With Yeremiah Bell out for the year, the Dolphins should be vulnerable to some.
RB: Julius Jones: Strong Flex Play - Miami knew Washington was going to pound the ball, and they didn’t exactly stop Clinton Portis. Still, Miami’s strength should be their rush defense. The Cowboys say they will use Jones around the goal line more often, so we’ll have to see if it happens.
RB: Marion Barber: Strong Flex Play - I don’t love either Dallas running back as a RB2 in this matchup, but they are worth playing as flex options.
WR: Terrell Owens: Must Play - T.O. is a strong choice for our “perfect picks” on the 100K most weeks because he’s the favorite to lead all wideouts in touchdowns. Miami doesn’t have anyone who can physically match up with him.
Continue reading "Cowboys vs. Dolphins matchups" »
September 07, 2007
One of the hardest decisions I make each week is what two games to watch on Sunday at 1PM. Poor me, I know. I want to see every game, but you wind up seeing none if you flip between 5. I’m considering Denver/Buffalo for one of the slots because I’m very interested to see Marshawn Lynch and basically the entire Broncos offense. Let’s look at the players from both teams.
Broncos
QB1: Jay Cutler: Solid Play - This is a good week to use Cutler. I know they are a zone team, but Buffalo has one of the weakest cornerback tandems in football now that Nate Clements is gone.
RB1: Travis Henry - Must Start - Buffalo struggled to stop the run last year, and didn’t appear to solve their interior line problems in the offseason. If Denver’s line is back in form, Henry should have a big game.
RB2: Selvin Young – Must Sit - There’s no guarantee yet he’s the backup, but he should be. I’m praying Young turns into an asset for my NFFC team, so I’ll be watching closely.
WR1: Javon Walker – Must Start - Walker hasn’t exactly had a consistent career, but modest gains from his post-ACL campaign in 2006 will make him a WR1. This should be a great matchup for him.
Continue reading "Broncos vs. Bills" »
August 31, 2007
The only surprise is that Mike Shanahan waited this long to drop a bomb on fantasy leaguers. Mike Bell is out as Denver's backup running back, and Selvin Young is in.
Like most Shanny surprises, he baited us early in camp by dangling Cecil Sapp as the random Bronco to watch. But Young, Cedric Benson's old committee partner at Texans (among other players), looks to be the pick after starting Denver's game Thursday night.
Continue reading "Meet the new Mike Bell" »
August 09, 2007
There are so daily injuries training camp, and most of them only last a few days. We attempt to sift through the noise in our player news by only highlighting major players or major injuries, but the amount of information is still overwhelming. Here's my quick take on what injuries matter thus far during camp, and which ones don't.
LaMont Jordan (back) - Becoming an issue, but not a big one yet. He's about a week away from getting a downgrade.
Clinton Portis (knee) - Just don't know at this point, but it's hard to imagine him starting the year getting 20 carries a game. He hasn't eased any concerns.
Vernand Morency (knee) - A serious problem. Morency is going to struggle to be ready for Week 1, and a committee seems inevitable.
Continue reading "What Injuries Matter" »
August 03, 2007
So it looks like all the Cecil Sapp hype is having an effect on Mike Bell's draft stock.
After narrowly passing him up in my last round of my Mock Draft, I ended up getting him 24 picks later with the 139th pick of the draft. I've been watching Sapp as closely as anyone, but this is still a great value for a young running back like Bell. Denver has needed to use multiple running backs for the last three years and Mike Shanahan loves playing depth chart games.
There is risk, but it's worth it this late. At some point, you have to look beyond this week and see the big picture. Bell is a nice RB4.
Note: I'm taking off for a wedding in Boston shortly. If the "scheduling" posts fuction worked, I'd spread out the next couple entries. But it doesn't.
August 02, 2007
This year's Mike Bell: Not Mike Bell
It's August, do you know who your Denver Bronco backup running back is?
Regular readers of the blog this summer could probably guess.
Cecil Sapp has taken second team snaps since training camp opened and Mike Bell enthusiasts need to take notice. Maybe it's just Shanahan playing with the depth chart (like he did last year with Tatum), but all the uncertainty puts a dent in Bell's status as one of the best backup running backs in fantasy football.
It also makes Sapp one of the most interesting deep sleepers in the NFL. Broncos preseason games will be worth watching again.
July 12, 2007
# 46. Broncos third receiver: Brandon Stokley vs. Rod Smith
This battle is far more dramatic in real life than for fantasy leaguers. One franchise legend facing off against another career overachiever, with the loser possibly being sent into retirement.
Smith’s hip injury may force him to miss the first six games of the year on the PUP list, which could almost do Mike Shanahan a favor. Does The Mastermind really want to carry Smith (or Stokley) as a fourth receiver?
By the time six games are up, perhaps there would be a logical spot for Smith if Stokley or Brandon Marshall are hurt. (Marshall is already having problems.)Shanahan’s poor drafting record (Darius Watts, Ashley Lelie) and his inability to turn around veterans (David Terrell, Jerry Rice) has hurt the team’s depth in recent years.
In the end, I’m not going near either of these two guys in fantasy leagues. But I’m pulling for Smith to get a proper career sendoff.
July 11, 2007
Is Rod Smith nearing the end?
Just because he can, Mike Shanahan held his only mandatory minicamp in the middle of July. He cut it short by a day, but we still learned quite a bit in two days.
1. Brandon Marshall is a riskier bet than expected
When we included Marshall on our magazine sleeper list, we knew he was a boom-or-bust pick. Great physical skills, terrific opportunity, little track record. Now he looks even shakier. Marshall couldn't make it through two days of workouts without re-injuring his thigh. Jay Cutler said Marshall looked overweight after missing all of June.
There have been questions about Marshall's professionalism in the past, and he still may be too immature to handle a big role. He may work his way back into shape slowly. The injuries could be a problem this season.
Continue reading "What we learned: Broncos Minicamp" »
May 23, 2007
Broncos safety Nick Ferguson returned to practice this week, which is quite a surprise considering the rough shape he was in after undergoing surgery last year to repair torn meniscus cartilage in his left knee.
His teammates even came up with a cute nickname for him because of his constant limp: "Barbaro."
A picture of the 2006 Kentucky Derby winner who later was euthanized because of his injury, is on display in the Broncos locker room bearing Ferguson's uniform number 25, courtesy of fellow safety John Lynch.
"Fortunately, I didn't go to the glue factory," Ferguson joked. "I'm still around, live and kicking and overcoming my leg injury."
In light of recent news stories, we're disturbed by Ferguson's lack of sensitivity. He can only dream to crush the competition and make as many grown men cry before Mike Shanahan puts him out to pasture.
March 21, 2007
My first reaction to Brandon Stokley's signing with Denver was that he and Rod Smith may be battling this August to keep their careers alive. That's life in the NFL.
Stokley is coming off a torn Achilles. He may be ahead of schedule, but that's a devastating injury for a slot receiver in his 30's. It's a fine low-risk signing for Denver. Mike Shanahan loves seeing if he can invigorate veterans receivers (David Terrell, anyone?).
Smith is out at least four months after surgery on his hip. A true warrior for the Broncos, he deserves a roster spot just for sticking around so long. But in the NFL, there may only be room for either him or Stokley. Either way, the days of Stokley or Smith being drafted in fantasy leagues are over.
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