August 11, 2009
Sometimes when I'm setting my rankings in May, I don't realize a certain player is a "Rotoworld guy" that year. I just think I'm slotting him fairly; not too high, not too low.
Marion Barber is starting to look like one of those players this year.
In standard leagues, Barber really doesn't look like much of a different value to me than he did in 2007 or 2008. His supporting cast at running back is certainly better, but Barber is still a player with all the best fantasy skills (receiving and scoring) on a productive offense.
He put-up top 15 fantasy numbers in 2006 on 158 touches, and top-7 numbers in 2007 on 248 touches. Even with Felix Jones around, I think he can hit 250 touches this year. I wrote in our magazine: "Barber is the rare fantasy back that is better off with fewer touches per game." (I wrote it because I think it's true. We'll see.)
Barber is more likely to stay healthy all season with help, and he's an every week starter while healthy.
That's why I'm surprised he's slipping to 3.01, according to FF Calculator's ADP.
In non-PPR leagues, people are going a little too far taking wideouts over Barber. His value hasn't really changed that much from the last two years, only the perception of his value has.
Barber has never really been a Rotoworld guy before, but this year the value looks right.
June 10, 2009
Jason Witten finished as the TE1 overall in 2007 and the TE2 in 2008. He is established as an elite fantasy commodity. Witten is the most complete tight end in the league, and with Terrell Owens gone, will be Tony Romo's go-to weapon in crucial situations.
The only hole in Witten's game -- and this, admittedly, is being overly picky -- is his touchdown production. He's never scored more than seven TDs in a season, and found the end zone just four times in 2008.
This is where the loss of Owens projects to benefit Witten the most.
Continue reading "Hard Hitten' Witten can be a TD Maker" »
May 27, 2009
With a little extra time in the schedule lately, and my wife starting a new job at nights, I've taken to watching some old NFL Replays and Shortcuts saved from last year. I'm a huge dork.
I watched Bengals-Cowboys from Week 5 last night, Felix Jones' best game, and saw him replace Marion Barber once on third-and-goal from the four-yard line. He didn't get the ball, but it got me thinking. Could Barber lose his red zone touches this year?
Based on last year's numbers, the answer is no. During the time Jones was healthy, he saw only one touch inside the ten-yard-line, to seven for Barber. Barber had 25 red zone touches to only three for Jones, including all the targets.
Those numbers will change with Jones getting a bigger role, but Barber should remain the bell cow near the stripe. He's a better inside runner and pass blocker. Jones should get most of his work between the 20's.
My theory with Barber this year is that Jones' presence isn't so bad for him. Barber was a fantasy star in the past with only 250 touches because of his touchdowns and receptions. He's the rare back who may have more value with less work because he's more likely to stay healthy.
In fact, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where both Barber and Jones prove to be undervalued on draft day, ala the Titans backs last year.
May 26, 2009
What you missed when you were out drinking with your friends ...
This one was actually from last Thursday, but a great State of the Romo piece by Matt Mosley. I hate how good writers like Mosley get buried on ESPN.com's "blog" format because I usually miss stuff like this. Most interesting passage:
He has some remarkable leadership qualities and he's a tireless worker. Unfortunately, though, he's not much of a listener. It's great to be able to tune out distractions, but Romo runs the risk of tuning out everyone. Since Parcells, Sparano and former quarterbacks coach David Lee have left the building, Romo doesn't have anyone willing to put him in his place.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Memorial Day catchup edition" »
April 08, 2009
The Jets will host Cowboys restricted free agent Miles Austin on Friday. If the Jets are serious about acquiring him, they'll need to fork over their second-round pick (No. 52 overall) and a contract, probably somewhere between Nate Washington's six-year, $27M deal and Brandon Jones' five-year, $16.5M pact.
Austin, who entered the league undrafted out of Monmouth, has only 18 career catches for 354 yards (19.7 YPC) and three touchdowns.
However, the 24-year-old has obvious ability. Austin was Monmouth's all-time leading receiver, so it isn't like he's new to catching passes. He ran 4.47 at the 2006 Combine and goes 6'3/215. Among receivers who saw fewer than 50 targets in 2008, Austin was the fourth-most productive according to Football Outsiders.
Continue reading "Jets' interest reflects well on Miles Austin" »
March 19, 2009
I posted my annual collateral damage article, looking at 16 players who have seen their fantasy value take a hit this offseason without changing places. A collateral benefits article is coming up, but not included are a few players who I am taking a wait and see approach with.
Tony Romo is atop this list. On paper, losing Terrell Owens should hurt. Fantasy owners don't get a bump from a quieter locker room.
Continue reading "Is Romo damaged goods?" »
March 17, 2009
I wrote about the impact of Terrell Owens' move to Buffalo, but I didn't comment on what T.O. left behind in Dallas. I'm confident the Cowboys will still be among the league leaders in passing yards, so where will Terrell Owens' yards go?
Roy Williams is the easiest answer, and it's obvious he will get a ton of targets. Patrick Crayton has averaged 45 catches the last two seasons, and will probably reprise his role as a slot receiver. That leaves one starting spot open, and Miles Austin looks primed to take it.
Continue reading "Austin is a nice place to be" »
March 04, 2009
Before the 2008 season, many fantasy owners wondered if Marion Barber could hold up to the pounding of a starting running back. He didn't.
Through seven weeks, Barber was the second-highest scoring fantasy back, on pace for 293 carries. For the final nine weeks, he wasn't in the top-40 because of a toe injury that limited him to 23 carries after Week 12. He showed signs of wearing down even before the injury, averaging 3.4 yards--per-carry in his five last appearances before Thanksgiving.
Continue reading "Barber could head back to bench" »
February 18, 2009
Jerry Jones’ latest statements hinted that Terrell Owens may not be released after all. With nearly every national football writer predicting the opposite, the star-crossed Cowboys owner/GM may just be trying to keep the media wolves at bay.
Owens has a roster bonus due in June, so the Cowboys could make sure he’s on his best behavior before making a final decision. What’s clear is that a faction in Dallas, reportedly led by Stephen Jones and Jason Garrett, does not love them some T.O. Let’s say, for the sake of February chatter, that this faction wins out and Owens is released.
Where would Owens go? More importantly, who would be desperate and crazy enough to want Owens?
With a hearty assist to the geniuses at Beckett’s publications, here’s Rotoworld’s best guess for potential Owens landing spots.
1. Raiders: Owens will go where he’s paid the most – period. And Al Davis showed with Javon Walker that he’s not afraid to overspend to get JaMarcus Russell some help. Davis also isn’t the type of owner to worry about chemistry much.
2. Ravens: They have a huge need at the position and have shown prior interest. They also have a veteran locker room that could handle Owens. The trickiest part of the equation here might be the salary cap. Baltimore also wants to find room for Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Bart Scott.
3. Redskins: The Fighting Cerratos don’t really have the cap room, but they have to be near the top of the list of teams crazy enough to do it. Dan Snyder also invested three picks at receiver in the 2008 draft, with initially poor results. Owens would fix the position quickly and amp up Washington’s NFC East rivalries.
Continue reading "Teams that could take on T.O." »
February 13, 2009
Brandon Jacobs was given the franchise tag Friday, which is a great move for the Giants. Huge running back contracts are dicey. I love keeping a great player like Brandon Jacobs on a year-to-year basis. He was extra motivated to stay on the field last season, and he will be again. The move also gives them more time to reach a long-term deal, but clearly they aren't comfortable with Jacobs' demands thus far.
Don Banks with more on the internal struggle surrounding T.O.'s possible release.
Andrew Brandt, Brett Favre's former co-worker and boss, with a very intimate and even-handed look at Brett Favre.
I hope GMs see Derrick Ward the same way Mike Lombardi does.
I'm starting a dynasty partial re-draft in my longtime league this week. I may ask you guys for your opinion on certain choices. Hopefully no one in my league reads this blog, but I'm thinking about Anthony Gonzalez, Roy Williams or Joe Flacco with my first pick. My QB need is much greater (I only have Trent Edwards), but it's a PPR league and WRs are gold. I know which way I'm leaning - how about you?
NFL Network’s Steve Wyche has sources that say T.J. Houshmandzadeh is as good as gone in Cincy. Despite Mike Lombardi’s evaluation, I’d take him over Antonio Bryant and any other free agent receiver. The Titans, Bucs (If Bryant leaves), and Eagles were mentioned by Wyche as possible landing spots. Those all make sense, but the Eagles may feel comfortable with DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and Jason Avant now. The Titans have a big receiver need and were reportedly willing to give up a high pick for Torry Holt last year. Housh would be perfect there.
Off the top of my head, here’s how I’d rank possible landing spots, not including Cincinnati.
Continue reading "Where will Housh land?" »
January 15, 2009
While T.O. could get cut, and it would make sense on some levels, there still isn't a lot of proof behind it. Stephen Jones is reportedly is in the camp of people who think it would be good to cut him for team chemistry. It sounds like offensive coordinator Jason Garrett doesn't want him around. Matt Mosley thinks Owens is "probably" gone, which is surprising.
Cutting Owens, however, will actually cost Dallas a bit of money against the cap. his roster bonus isn't due until June, so there isn't much Getting rid of aging high priced talent for chemistry reasons makes sense to me, but it goes against everything we know about Jerry Jones. It still sounds like a longshot.
***
Brandon Jones, once a favorite in these parts, played just well enough to get another chance to start in Tennessee. He led the wideouts in catches and has to be favored over Justin McCareins after the latter's embarrasing performance against the Ravens. Bo Scaife should also be back.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Could T.O. really get cut?" »
January 07, 2009
News that won't make Jets fans happy from Mike Lombardi: "Everyone I talk to in and around the NFL feel this job is Schottenheimer’s. He is bright, he is young and he will work with GM Mike Tannenbaum. In the end, the Jets (i.e., Tannenbaum) are more interested in finding someone who will not challenge Mike T.’s power rather than getting the best coach."
I agree with Lombardi that it's not that attractive of a job. The expectations are high, there is no quarterback, and the roster doesn't have a lot of young talent.
Also in that Lombardi article: News that the Cowboys wouldn't seem to mind if Jason Garrett left. How can so much change in a year? Either Jerry Jones misevaluated him them or is misevaluating him now?
The Top-30 Keepers (plus ties!) are finally up.
Chad Pennington is Miami's starter, but I think he will be in a similar situation to Derek Anderson this season. If Miami is more than two games under .500 at any point after midseason, a change will probably be made. It may not be fair, but life's not fair, as Tom Rosenthal always told me.
Troy Aikman would take Eli Manning over Tony Romo. In fantasy, that's an easy call. In reality, to win a game this weekend, I can't believe I'm hesitating. But I'd still take Romo. What say you?
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Jets staying in-house?" »
December 08, 2008
Monday mornings are spent piecing together the Morning After, which is essentially a collection of about 30 blog posts. That's coming soon. In the meantime, I thought I'd post this quick debate piece I do for NBCSports.com and Sprint on Monday mornings. The debate question today: Is Tony Romo improving or regressing?
***
Is this really a question? Going into Sunday, Tony Romo was first in the NFL in yards-per-attempt, passer rating, and touchdowns-per pass attempt. He’s played this well despite playing three games with a splint on his pinkie. He’s also first in all three marks among active players. Give the guy a break with these questions!
The Steelers have a historic defense that is dominating in all phases. They have given up fewer yards-per-play than any team in over thirty years. They have routinely made great quarterbacks look bad, and Romo won’t be the last.
Romo isn’t Dallas’ problem. How long does it take until we realize that quarterbacks aren’t solely responsible for wins and losses? It’s a team game. Teams led by Kerry Collins, Joe Flacco, Jeff Garcia, and Jake Delhomme combine for a 39-11 record this season. Delhomme and Garcia aren’t even playing particularly well. All of their teams would trade their guys and their souls to get a quarterback like Romo.
December 02, 2008
By the time the fantasy playoffs hit, the waiver wire is usually not that useful. This week is an exception to that rule. With injuries to significant running backs, most playoff teams can still upgrade their rosters this week. Kellen Winslow's injury Both Tashard Choice and Brandon Jackson have a legitimate chance to start this week. Marion Barber's status looks shakier than Ryan Grant's, but Jackson would still be my pick. I like what I've seen from Choice and Jackson recently, but Jackson's matchups (Houston, Jacksonville) are far better than Choice's (Pittsburgh, NYG). It's hard to imagine any playoff team actually starting Choice, no matter what happens with MBIII.
Jackson is not the same guy that was a fantasy bust last season. He's improved in the pass game. He's more decisive with his cuts. The big-play ability is there. IF Grant is out, which I still don't expect, Jackson will be a top-20 play this week. Some other waiver options this week ...
Continue reading "Jackson over Choice" »
October 17, 2008
Waiting for Jerry Jones to decide Romo's status?
I've gone back and forth on the question of whether Tony Romo will play question a few times. The only thing that seems certain is that I won't know for sure until I'm hosting Fix Live on Sunday morning. Romo took some first team snaps Thursday and Jerry Jones has been publicly optimistic. If Romo can throw and wants to play, one would think they will let him.
But ESPN's John Clayton and The Fort Worth Star-Telegram think Romo is unlikely to be the starter. They know a lot more about football and Tony Romo than I do. If you were averaging all the opinions about Romo's status, my guess is that the national average would put his likelihood of playing under 50%. My gut says he will, but my gut is stupid and growing as usual during football season. If Romo is out, I don't want to play Brad Johnson, regardless of matchup. Roy Williams is hands-off in his first game with the Cowboys with Johnson and he's only a WR3 if Romo is there.
Update: Sounds like he's probably playing.
October 15, 2008
First Roy Williams shows up. Now Tony Romo may throw some passes Wednesday and be "re-evaluated." It sounds like he has a chance to play this Sunday, which would make my wife and the greater Dallas area very happy.
October 14, 2008
Our blurb on the Roy Williams deal is listed below. I'd write more here, but I need to get the Season Pass rankings up. Basically, this move adds another pair of hands to an overcrowded Dallas receiver group. Romo, Brad Johnson, and Calvin Johnson are winners. Megatron has less competition for targets. The Dallas Quarterbacks have more weapons.
Williams' value probably doesn't move. He gets a better quarterback in a month, but now may be the fourth option in his offense. That tradeoff is a wash. Dallas is asking for a T.Opisode in the next few years. It's hard to see him co-existing well with a similar receiver. Jerry Jones also just handed Williams' agent a ton of leverage because he'd look silly if Williams doesn't re-sign with the team now. Williams' contract expires at the end of the year.
The rest of the impact is after the jump. Let me know if you agree with my take.
Continue reading "Roy Williams can stiff delivery men in Dallas now" »
October 13, 2008
There was already going to be panic on the airwaves surrounding the Cowboys offense this week. Now it’s well founded. ESPN’s Michael Smith reports that Tony Romo will miss four weeks (three games) with a broken pinkie, forcing Brad Johnson into the starting lineup.
Johnson is hardly a 40-year-old virgin as an NFL starter, but he’s barely taken a snap since a mediocre run in Minnesota in 2006. He’s a classic “game-manager” and will probably have the weakest arm of any NFL starter in Week 7. The Cowboys now must rely heavily on their mammoth offensive line and running game. There should be no complaints about the workload of Marion Barber and Felix Jones over the next three weeks. The passing attack will stop going vertical to Terrell Owens and start going horizontal to Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton. That should go over well with T.O.
If Smith’s report is accurate, Romo will miss games at St. Louis, vs. Tampa Bay, and at the Giants. The Rams game becomes a must-win because Johnson will struggle to move the ball the following two weeks against two of the best defenses in football. A Week 9 loss in the Meadowlands could put the Cowboys dangerously far behind the Giants in the NFC East, making them just another Wild Card contender.
This is a Cowboys team with the personality of their head coach, always convinced the sun will shine brighter tomorrow on America’s Team. They have been criticized for failing to handle adversity well. They will either prove everyone wrong or spectacularly implode. It should be good theatre either way, just like Jerry Jones wants.
September 26, 2008
Between the column and the videos, every matchup is covered except two. Those two are below. I'll update the rankings in a while and then start pregaming for the debate.
Ravens @ Steelers
Baltimore is the most impressive defense in the NFL thus far. That could mean a long night for all Steelers. Since Rashard Mendenhall has failed to impress in practice, I'm not high on him proving RB2 value against Baltimore. Mewelde Moore will probably be very involved. ... Ben Roethlisberger is going to see a lot of blitzes and could get killed here. That will make it hard for Santonio Holmes to have time to get open deep.
Continue reading "Ravens vs. Steelers, 'Skins vs. Cowboys" »
August 05, 2008
Steve Smith's problems with the Panthers organization may run deeper than his recent fight with Ken Lucas. At least that's what Matt Mosley of ESPN indicates in his blog. Mosley says there are "rumblings" that the Panthers could consider dealing Smith, and that Smith's name has already come up in conversations with Dallas.
Let's be real here: The odds on a trade at this point, especially with John Fox and GM Marty Hurney on the hot seat, seem slim to none. The Panthers offense can barely afford to lose their best player for two games, much less the season. Still, it's a story worth tracking because Smith's two game suspension would likely be lifted in a new locale.
I will write about the situation more, but the punishment didn't wind up hurting Smith that much in our updated projections. Steve Smith + two games of a receiver off your bench still equals top-ten production. Don't let him slip out of the third round.
August 01, 2008
The blog is going to remain quiet for the rest of the day as I travel to the wilds of New Jersey for my best friend's wedding. The speech is on my mind, especially since I'm used to people ignoring my presence with a microphone. But fear not: There's a fresh daily dose to devour (with an update on the Ryan Grant situation), Evan Silva's awesome IDP position battles, and far more new videos than anyone with a job has time for.
I'm going to post a few, including the Cowboys (with part of Tiffany's interview with Tony Romo and an intrusive T.O.), Steelers (with a surprise appearance by ... McLovin), and the Seahawks. The Colts and Redskins are also ready for viewing, with my optimistic look at Marvin Harrison. Have a great weekend everyone.
Continue reading "Slew of Team Previews" »
July 28, 2008
Terry Glenn is no longer a Cowboy, which solidifies Patrick Crayton’s value as a starter in Dallas. Crayton was inconsistent on a weekly basis last year, but he put up WR3 numbers and is a fine pick for depth in fantasy leagues. I like him as a WR4 because he's not steady enough to us each week. Miles Austin and Sam Hurd will battle for the third receiver job. Perhaps Glenn will reunite with Bill Parcells in Miami, who could use some receiver depth.
Apologies for the error on this post earlier. Had to delete it, including the funny comments. Our system went a little nutty.
June 27, 2008
Today's scouting reports from MLive.com about Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey confirm what shay bets they are in fantasy leagues. McDonald is the third receiver, Furrey the fourth. But if Calvin Johnson or Roy Williams get hurt, Furrey is likely to replace them in the starting lineup. With Mike Martz gone, the third receiver won't be worth drafting. So forget McDonald. And Furrey is only worth a look if an injury strikes.
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News from Adam Schefter that the Cowboys are eyeing Joe Horn. This makes no sense and smacks of Jerry Jones just looking for a big name. Horn isn't good enough to contribute in Atlanta. He's not close to the receiver Patrick Crayton is. This would be a mistake, and not just because the Cowboys are already fine at No. 2 receiver.
***
Najeh Davenport is being shopped. I don't think the Steelers will find a taker, but it's just another guy who might get a job ahead of Shaun Alexander or Travis Henry.
Update: He's been dumped
June 23, 2008
Certain storylines or team needs tend to gain steam in media coverage throughout the summer, whether it's warranted or not. Dallas' supposedly desperate need for another wide receiver is one of these stories. What all the hand-wringing fails to mention is that Dallas was awesome last year with Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton as secondary receivers behind Terrell Owens. How much better can the Cowboys get than finishing second in receiving touchdowns and second in yards-per-attempt?
Is Crayton a classic number two? No, he plays better in the slot. Just like other Donald Driver, Bobby Engram, and plenty other "starters" around the league. The local rag says Dallas will use Jason Witten out wide more often, which is nice. But Witten was already was among the league leaders at tight end in snaps out wide, so I'm not sure how much more he can play out there. He's a better tight end than wideout, and the matchups will be better inside. He's proven to be more effective there, like most tight ends.
Continue reading "Enough about the Dallas No. 2 receiver" »
May 22, 2008
Let's start this Thursday morning with a check on our last reader decision: Kellen Winslow vs. Jason Witten.
Witten won in a landslide. While I agree, it's worth keeping in mind that Winslow topped 1,100 yards in a season that often would be the best among tight ends. Throw in Antonio Gates, and I think there is a big gap this year between the top-three tight ends and the rest of the pack. While I will be happy to take someone like Owen Daniels or Todd Heap at the right spot, I think the "big three" will be a better value in the middle rounds than players like Tony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark, who may only go a round later.
Winslow has missed OTA work this offseason, but Drew Rosenhaus says he'll be there for the mandatory work.
May 16, 2008
Okay, we've got the results from the last two player matchups. In a surprise (to me), Heath Miller edged out Jeremy Shockey, with Vernon Davis finishing a relatively close third. Wes Welker also trashed Roy Williams in their head-to-head matchup.
Today's battle will go back to tight ends one more time. I'm going to take Antonio Gates out of the discussion because of his foot surgery. If he's ready to play Week 1, he's number one in my rankings. We'll see how that plays out.
Continue reading "Winslow vs. Witten" »
Okay, we've got the results from the last two player matchups. In a surprise (to me), Heath Miller edged out Jeremy Shockey, with Vernon Davis finishing a relatively close third. Wes Welker also trashed Roy Williams in their head-to-head matchup.
Today's battle will go back to tight ends one more time. I'm going to take Antonio Gates out of the discussion because of his foot surgery. If he's ready to play Week 1, he's number one in my rankings. We'll see how that plays out.
Continue reading "Winslow vs. Witten" »
May 05, 2008
We had a great debate about Braylon Edwards vs. Andre Johnson last week, with AJ surprisingly coming out on top 16-12.
As I hit the frantic home stretch of our first magazine (I leave for Dallas next Tuesday), you can help me with another battle: Ryan Grant vs. Marion Barber.
Barber will be a flash point for fantasy owners this year. He produced like a top-three back last year, but his limited experience and the change to Aaron Rodgers will scare some owners away. He's going to go early, but would you take him ahead of elite wideouts. More importantly, would you take him ahead of Marion Barber, who now has Felix Jones around?
April 23, 2008
It looks like B. Roo wants to set the comments record for the Mock with this pick, No. 28 for the Cowboys. 49ers are on the clock.
Let’s get it out of the way up front and then give the explanation. Please hear me out before you flame me. With the 28th pick in the ’08 draft the Dallas Cowboys select:
Brian Brohm- QB (Louisville)
First of all, let me say that if the draft actually plays out this way Dallas WILL trade this pick. I can’t do that here though. The Cowboys still have needs at WR and in the secondary. None of the WRs are first round worthy and the DB board has also been picked clean of first round talent.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 28" »
April 17, 2008
I know this draft is a hit when I get two emails telling me to hurry up and post the Dallas pick. So here goes, courtesy of Marv M.
Dallas should use this pick to select a running back.
They arguably have bigger needs in the secondary, but all of the cornerbacks worth taking this high have already been selected, and a safety can be acquired later.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 22" »
Perhaps the most interesting part of the latest round of Ocho Cinco blather was Adam Schefter's note that Cincy has already received an offer of two first-day picks for Johnson. (Is that the old first day - three rounds - or the new first day of two rounds? I'm guesing the former).
If someone is offering that much before the draft, the price should go up on draft day. And that means the Bengals would have to consider the offer, even though I think he'll stay put. So is this mystery team? Here are my five best guesses based on ammunition (draft picks) and need.
Continue reading "Chad Johnson has bidders" »
March 05, 2008
Once upon a time, Julius Jones was getting taken near the first round of fantasy drafts. Sorry about that one. Now he's the most interesting running back left on the free agent market. Let's rank where he could end up by projected 2008 fantasy value.
4. Tampa Bay - The Bucs have "expressed interest" but haven't visited with Jones. He could caddy for Earnest Graham there, but they already have a speed threat with poor instincts - Michael Bennett. Julius could hope following his brother's career path leads to similar results.
3. Tennessee - Bad sign for Chris Henry that the Titans are hosting Jones on Wednesday. LenDale White will keep his starting job, but the Titans would like some speed off the bench. Jones would be an RB4 in fantasy leagues here.
Continue reading "Pick a home for Julius Jones" »
February 26, 2008
Some news and notes picked up from this morning's news ...
The always quotable Antonio Pierce is requesting a new segment in NFL Films highlight films.
"Show the highlights of all the players we beat, crying, with that stupid look on their faces, saying, 'How did we lose?"
Darren McFadden ran a 4.33 in tennis shoes.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Giant Schadenfreude" »
February 25, 2008
Very busy weekend on the news page, worth checking out if you can. Some nuggets that may get lost in the shuffle...
Marion Barber keeper owners are hoping for 300 carries, but the Cowboys are probably going right back to a committee. I still expect Barber's touches to pick up.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Barbarian Not Free Yet?" »
January 21, 2008
A little late on these, but they are too funny to pass up.
The Onion has an unbelieable caption following T.O.'s press conference last week. (Not to mention Jessica Simpson's elaborate plan.)
And SSSN details our record traffic day last week.
January 15, 2008
Does Maroney's strong finish make him a better '08 fantasy pick?
Philip Rivers has played well enough in the playoffs to adjust my expectations for his 2008 season slightly. So who else has affected their value? I'll list some names and decide if their postseason effort mattered.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers - Here was the guy we expected to see all season. I think San Diego's maturation in the passing game has a lot to do with understanding Norv Turner's system. Jackson will be ignored after a lost year, but he still has potential to score a lot of touchdowns.
Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, Giants - Give credit to the GIants offensive line. Everyone looks like a superstar playing behind them. (Except for Reuben Droughns). Now that Bradshaw looks like a legitimate threat, Jacobs is going to wind up sharing carries with him and possibly Derrick Ward next year. Good for the Giants, bad for Jacobs. Although maybe lesser work can keep him healthy. 15 touches-per-game and a lot of scores would keep him a RB2.
Continue reading "Playoff adjustments" »
January 14, 2008
Dallas' loss to the Giants will leave a mark for years, but I don't buy that it's the beginning of the end for the franchise.
They were the fourth-youngest team in the league and there are many pieces in place for a long run of success, starting with Tony Romo. They honestly don't have many holes to fill, but here is what should concern the team heading into the offseason.
1. Flozell Adams - He didn't have a great playoff effort, but Adams is still a Pro Bowl left tackle. He would make an enormous contract on the open market, one that may not be worth it for a 33-year-old. The franchise tag seems made for him.
Continue reading "What's next for Cowboys?" »
Hashmarks has some excellent post-mortem reaction from the Cowboys-Giants game, including a phrase that nicely sums up the end of the season: Who has my keys?
January 13, 2008
The entire organization deserves praise for making it this far; The coaching staff for fostering a team attitude; GM Floyd Reese for his draft class; Eli Manning for his poise; The offensive line for great run blocking. But more than any team in recent memory, the Giants have made it all the way to a Conference Championship on the strength of one exceptional unit - their defensive line.
By the fourth quarter Sunday, Osi Umenyiora was throwing All Pro tackle Flozell Adams around. Justin Tuck was giving Pro Bowler Andre Gurode fits. Michael Strahan was putting the finishing touches on yet another resurgent season.
Sure, the Giants were helped enormously by some Patrick Crayton gaffes. But the Giants defensive line took over against one of the best offensive lines in football when they absolutely had to. New York's patchwork secondary was ready to fall apart, but Tony Romo didn't have enough time to exploit the matchups.
They may have to be even better next week, because Green Bay's receiver depth will be difficult to contain. I'm done counting the Giants out, though. It all starts up front.
December 19, 2007
Bill Parcells just doesn't know how to quit. After another brief run at ESPN, Parcells is on the verge of taking a front office job with the Atlanta Falcons.
Some may wonder why Parcells would join a mess like the Falcons, but the better question is why not? They have an owner with deep pockets and the franchise can only go up. Parcells loves a fixer-upper.
The Patriots were 2-11 in the year before Parcells turned the franchise around. The Jets were 1-15 in 1996 when he started shopping for groceries again in New York. The Cowboys were stuck in a perpetual 5-11 Quincy Carter rut before Parcells joined forces with Jerry Jones.
Continue reading "Big Tuna = Big Drama" »
November 29, 2007
Against my better judgment, I'm going to liveblog tonight's game, especially for those unfortunately souls without the NFL Network. It's the season for giving and all. See you around kickoff ...
October 15, 2007
As you could probably tell from Morning After, I watched the strange Packers-Redskins game Sunday. Here's the only recap you need to know from that game. If nothing else, we know the Redskins defense is for real. Again.
I also enjoyed the epic Hashmarks breakdown of the Patriots-Cowboys bonanza. One final note just heard from NFLN's Rich Eisen before I move on. The Patriots have outscored their opponents by 138 points this season. Only four other teams have even scored 138 points this season. I'll shut up now.
October 08, 2007
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think the Bills have a good chance to win this game tonight. Dick Jauron is easy to make fun of, but his Bills teams have done one thing consistently: play their guts out. Personnel issues prevent them from being a playoff contender, but this is their Super Bowl. It's just another game for the Cowboys.
Dallas sleptwalked through their first half against the Rams at home last week, and was very lucky to have a lead at halftime. The Cowboys are a good team, but they aren't so good that they can't get beat on the road by a team with everything to play for.
I'm really excited to watch Trent Edwards after hearing so much about his poised start last week. Buffalo has needed a good quarterback for as long as I can remember. It's early, but I say Edwards makes a name for himself tonight.
Bills 24, Cowboys 23
Continue reading "Monday Night Prediction" »
September 23, 2007
The Cowboys rushing game continues to frustrate owners. Twice tonight, the Cowboys got inside the five-yard line. Julius Jones stayed in the game both times.
He didn't get the score, but Marion Barber owners have to be frustrated. Neither Dallas runner is doing anything tonight, and they will continue to make difficult weekly decisions in fantasy leagues.
Patrick Crayton did not have a drop all of last year. Since he's emerged as a pro, Crayton is known for having the best hands on the Cowboys. Crayton, playing with a broken finger Sunday night, just had a drop that led to an interception for Tony Romo.
John Madden just said Crayton was struggling to make catches in pregame warm-ups. Fantasy leaguers should try to keep Crayton on the bench if possible until he proves he can make the tough grab again.
After the guy from Heroes pushes the opening kickoff out of bounds, Cedric Benson rips off a couple runs before a Bernard Berrian and some pressure on Rex Grossman stops a drive.
Look for Dallas to send tons of extra guys at Grossman. His repuation around the league is that he doesn't step into his throws when the pressure is in his face. Dallas is undermanned, but will probably gamble anyhow.
Here are the Cowboys I'm keeping a close eye on tonight.
Tony Romo - He's faced two weak secondaries thus far. Let's see what he does against a real defense.
Julius Jones - Basically benched late last week, Jones needs a big effort against his brother's old team are risk losing touches to Marion Barber. He has to look competent.
Patrick Crayton - Been quiet this season in starting role. Will have to beat some speedy, but smallish corners.
Jason Witten - Tight ends usually struggle against the Bears, although Antonio Gates did well in Week 1. I rolled with Witten this week because he's the number two receiver on a high scoring team.
September 14, 2007
This is a rare game where an NFC team is a road favorite (and by more than a field goal). The matchup features each team’s strengths and weakness facing one another. The consistent Miami defense under Dom Capers defense takes on the Tony Romo show. Dallas’ rag-tag secondary tries to survive against Trent Green’s still-forming pass attack.
QB: Tony Romo: Must Play - The Cowboys are a big-play team. With Yeremiah Bell out for the year, the Dolphins should be vulnerable to some.
RB: Julius Jones: Strong Flex Play - Miami knew Washington was going to pound the ball, and they didn’t exactly stop Clinton Portis. Still, Miami’s strength should be their rush defense. The Cowboys say they will use Jones around the goal line more often, so we’ll have to see if it happens.
RB: Marion Barber: Strong Flex Play - I don’t love either Dallas running back as a RB2 in this matchup, but they are worth playing as flex options.
WR: Terrell Owens: Must Play - T.O. is a strong choice for our “perfect picks” on the 100K most weeks because he’s the favorite to lead all wideouts in touchdowns. Miami doesn’t have anyone who can physically match up with him.
Continue reading "Cowboys vs. Dolphins matchups" »
September 07, 2007
Big update on my morning Crayton Nation post. Ryan Wilson on Fanhouse just pointed out a Hashmarks post that Terry Glenn is probably done for the season.
Mosley is usually right on with Cowboys news, so this should be proved accurate. Everything positive I've said about Crayton all offseason will now be tested. I can't wait to find out if I'm right; expect Crayton to be a solid WR3 year. I don't see Crayton as a gamebreaker, but a solid possession receiver who will help PPR teams consistently.
Continue reading "Glenn expected to miss season" »
Moving on from last night's festivities, let's look at the next biggest news to break Thursday afternoon: Terry Glenn's knee setback.
Patrick Crayton Nation (of which I am a proud member on multiple teams) should be salivating over Sunday night's start against the weak Giants secondary. Crayton is a consummate underneath receiver who will allow Terrell Owens to go deep more. He should pile up targets without much depth behind him at wideout. I'm moving his ranking into the top-30 for this week, making him a solid WR3 option or better in points-per-reception leagues.
Continue reading "Crayton Nation" »
September 06, 2007
Reggie Wayne's owner didn't care that his touchdown was ultimately meaningless.
Eric Johnson enthusiasts in PPR leagues enjoyed the hell out of that last drive (Hoiles now has 7-for-48, a great PPR night for a tight end).
Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Reggie Bush, and Deuce McAllister owners are all cursing Brees' latest fumble like it's a tie game.
And these stat-drive moments don't hurt my love of the game. I'd kill to have a competitive back-and-forth contest; there is nothing better than a great football. It makes me forget the stats. But the reality is this hasn't been a great football game. And I'm still enjoying watching it to the end.
September 05, 2007
I'm busy working on Goal Line Stand rankings and comments, but I just got my hands on the first NFL injury report.
Here were the headlines.
* Drew Bennett (thigh) didn't practice again, but Torry Holt did. He's not even on the injury report. You can all breathe a big sigh of relief.
* Greg Olsen sat out practice. I'm guessing he's less than 50-50 to play this week.
* Terry Glenn is back fully practicing. It looks like he'll play, although perhaps not with a full complement of snaps.
* Clinton Portis is fully practicing again, although he is listed on the report. Keep reading reports on him, but all signs are good thus far.
* Kevin Jones finally returned to practice, although not as a full participant. Still, it's a big step. We'll keep reading for the details.
That's about it. Week 1 is always quiet. I'll be back in the morning with rankings, some 100K picks, and the vindication of DeDe Dorsey.
September 04, 2007
Plaxico Burress was back at Giants practice Tuesday. Expect him to play in Week 1 against the Cowboys, and loook for a lot of scoring in that game. With Sam Madison and probably Terence Newman sitting out, these are two of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL.
I look for a lot of blitzes to make up for it, and enough big plays to make Eli Manning, Burress, Tony Romo, Patrick Crayton solid plays this week.
As I'm typing this, the first injury report crossed my path. We're getting close!
Remember that injury reports now only come out on Friday. Until then, we'll just know if a player practice, didn't practice, or was limited in practice.
Continue reading "Giants/Cowboys & First Injury Report" »
August 29, 2007
First let's see how the truest committee in the league is being drafted.
Marion Barber: RB24, fourth/fifth-round
Julius Jones: RB30, sixth-round
We don't know that much more about this situation now than we did when Wade Phillips was hired. The owners hoping Barber would take the starting job have been disappointed, and his ADP has steadily dropped because of it. I'd take Jones over Barber straight up even though the roles look to be the same this year. For a sixth-round RB3, you aren't going to do much better.
Continue reading "Focus on Cowboys" »
July 17, 2007
#40. Giants, Cowboys, and Falcons Kickers
Kickers are so irrelevent in fantasy football, we’ll combine three battles into one.
Giants K: Lawrence Tynes vs. Josh Huston
Huston was highly touted coming out of college, but understandably couldn’t beat out Robbie Gould last year. Tynes has experience, not all of it bad, as a kicker in Kansas City. The veteran is the favorite.
Cowboys K: Martin Gramatica vs. Nick Folk
Gramatica is the favorite, and rookie Nick Folk hasn’t looked impressive in minicamp season.
Falcons K: Aaron Elling vs. Billy Cundiff
Elling reminds us of the Mike Tice era, so we like that. Cundiff, on the other hand, has kicked in the NFL within the last two years. He’s the slight favorite.
June 12, 2007
Welcome if you are reading the fantasy mill for the first time on profootballtalk.com. If you are reading on Rotoworld, you can take a peek at our new Fantasy Mill at PFT.
A few morning links that didn't make the morning news ...
Why do I get the feeling that Lane Kiffin is preparing us for JaMarcus Russell to start in September?
"JaMarcus looked really good (Monday)," coach Kiffin said. "Without going back to watch the film, it was JaMarcus' best practice since he's been here."
I'm not touching any Raiders quarterback in fantasy leagues this year, but Russell will be projected to make about 12 starts.
Jean-Jacque Taylor is on fire since getting a columnist gig at the Dallas Morning News. He's right on with this Greg Ellis analysis. It's no time to be asking for a pay raise. Ellis should be happy he's so well paid coming off a torn Achilles.
Continue reading "Linked: Russell getting ready?" »
June 04, 2007
Some NFL links this morning as I get over the fact that Eric Mangini is infinitely cooler than I am. And cooler than his old boss.
The most ridiculous talk radio fueled debate of the last few weeks? Is Tony Romo becoming too Hollywood?
The Dallas Morning News gets it right, while the usually excellent AOL Fanhouse blog and Fort Worth Star-Telegram try to tell Tony Romo how to do his job and lead his private life based on what they know from reading tabloids.
Romo has climbed from a small school quarterback to an undrafted free agent to near the top of a highly competitive profession. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt that he knows how to do his job and live his life. Joe Namath, Joe Theisman, and Tom Brady didn't exactly struggle after dating starlets.
Johnnie Morton's MMA career? Gone in 38 seconds. Nice to get knocked out and suspended.
A solid scouting report on Kevin Jones by MLive.com's Tom Kowalski. The reports surrounding Jones' foot continue to be positive, but really it's too early to know anything.
Tarvaris Jackson bounces back from a rough Saturday at Minnesota minicamp. Rarely do you hear such uniformly negative reviews at a summer session.
Not a good sign for Robert Meachem that he was "overshadowed" by Rheema McKnight and Dante Ridgeway.
Here's a look at the Bengals backfield. It was a surprise that running back was such a priority for Cincy, but Kenny Watson is just a guy and the team probably isn't counting on Chris Perry this season.
January 31, 2007
Highlights of T.O.'s popcorn worthy one-on-one interview with Deion Sanders on the NFL Network.
Asked if its pronounced "Tear-el" or "Terr-el," he said, "It started out as Terrell, then we brought it to T.O. And I got something cooking for next year."
By we, who did Owens mean? T.O. and Terrell? Terrell and Kim Etheridge?
Dumbest question yet by Sanders: "Has Jerry Jones called you for advice about the coaching search?"
Other gems from Owens...
"I get no respect for what I do. I play with half a leg in the Super Bowl and get no respect for that. I play with a bum hand that no one knew about... I guess I won't get any respect until I have a limb dangling off me and you can physically see it."
"I didn't just lead the NFC. I didn't just lead the AFC. I led the NFL in touchdowns."
"There were guys that only had two or three less drops than I did, and they had two good hands."
One thing I liked. Owens calling out his detractors by name, including Mark Schlereth and Sean Salisbury.
Some actual news: Owens' second surgery on his finger will take place March 1.
And my first ever quasi-live blog of an interview is now complete.
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