it was hard not to notice how impressive Chad Ochocinco looked on Wednesday night's premier of HBO's Hard Knocks. Yes, his personality is still way over the top. Even coach Marvin Lewis acknowledged that Chad is obsessed with his U Stream TV show and Twitter. But Ocho's training his tail off and is in extremely sleek physical condition. He has the body of a deep threat again, and I can't wait to see him play a few series Friday night at New Orleans.
Tiffany and I talked this week about value at every position. Veterans coming off bad years like Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger and young running backs like Ahmad Bradshaw and Ray Rice. I also talk tight end value, and well, yeah, just check it out.
Or don't. There's no way I'll know the difference.
I always have a real hard time betting on rebounds from players coming off lost or terrible seasons. Chad "Ochocinco" Johnson's 53-catch, 540-yard, four-touchdown 2008 campaign was very troubling, even if it can partially be blamed on Ryan Fitzpatrick's noodle arm.
Entering last year, Chad had not produced fewer than 87 catches, 1,274 yards, or seven touchdowns in a season since 2002. A model of year-to-year consistency, "85" never finished lower than the fantasy WR9 overall between 2003-2007. He fell to the WR50 in 2008.
So in my effort to keep these blog posts around 200 words, I teased this topic at the bottom of the Jerome Harrison post. I was looking for a player that could post Jamal Lewis in '06-type numbers: Mediocre performance, but a big enough workload to have some value.
A few of you, including Evan "I can drink two Miller Lights in the time you drink one" Silva, nailed it: longtime nemesis Cedric Benson. It's not that I want to own Benson or think he'll be a killer value at his current RB32 ADP.
But he won’t crush you as a RB3/4 if he slips far enough. I'd rather own him than some guys like Lewis, LeRon McClain, and LenDale White, who are going before him. I'd rather take Benson in the eighth than LJ in the fourth because they are similar values. (I'd also rather take Donald Brown and Felix Jones, who are going behind Benson.)
With a little extra time in the schedule lately, and my wife starting a new job at nights, I've taken to watching some old NFL Replays and Shortcuts saved from last year. I'm a huge dork.
I watched Bengals-Cowboys from Week 5 last night, Felix Jones' best game, and saw him replace Marion Barber once on third-and-goal from the four-yard line. He didn't get the ball, but it got me thinking. Could Barber lose his red zone touches this year?
Based on last year's numbers, the answer is no. During the time Jones was healthy, he saw only one touch inside the ten-yard-line, to seven for Barber. Barber had 25 red zone touches to only three for Jones, including all the targets.
Those numbers will change with Jones getting a bigger role, but Barber should remain the bell cow near the stripe. He's a better inside runner and pass blocker. Jones should get most of his work between the 20's.
My theory with Barber this year is that Jones' presence isn't so bad for him. Barber was a fantasy star in the past with only 250 touches because of his touchdowns and receptions. He's the rare back who may have more value with less work because he's more likely to stay healthy.
In fact, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where both Barber and Jones prove to be undervalued on draft day, ala the Titans backs last year.
It shouldn't have been too much of a surprise, but I certainly wasn't expecting it.
Chris Henry was available on my dynasty waiver wire this morning. I quickly picked him up, dropping Mario Manningham. Henry has topped 50 receiving yards in a game just once since Dec 15, 2007. He is one off-field miscue away from at least a year's suspension.
I recall a pre-Laveranues Coles signing conversation about Henry with Gregg Rosenthal. He asked me what I thought of the super-skilled but arrest-prone wideout's situation. I said I didn't think the Bengals could ever rely on Henry to play full time and that Andre Caldwell would get the first crack to start in place of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
Coles signed on later, but with Chad Ochocinco sitting out minicamps, Henry is taking first-team reps and has the support of the most integral piece in the Bengals' organization.
Unlike Bengals fan reformed NFL supporter Chris Wesseling, I'm in agreement with Silva's post last night that the Bengals passing attack will be a good place to look for value. (Actually, I don't know if Wess agrees, but it's fun to assume.) So let’s piggyback on what Silva wrote, in handy list form.
1. Chad Johnson is on the majority of teams I've drafted thus far, Mock or otherwise. I haven't taken him any earlier than the end of the fourth round. It's usually been in the fifth.
2. Laveranues Coles would have been on my busts list if he didn't land in the absolute perfect situation. I don't like small, slow possession receivers who are always banged up. The Bengals will force the ball to him, so he's projected to maintain value. Deep down, he still worries me. A boom or bust.
3. It was only one game, but Andre Caldwell's playmaking skills were impressive in Week 17. He made multiple people miss every time he touched the ball. He was my pick in our magazine poll for a deep dynasty sleeper.
Coles squashes his redraft value, but Caldwell is someone to watch closely or draft in deep PPR leagues in case Coles tanks. (Of course, Chris Henry still has a chance to step up. Why did they need to overpay Coles again?)
The Bengals' passing game is due for a major bounce back with the healthy return of Carson Palmer. While Cincy may struggle to regain its 2005-2007 form (the Bengals ranked fifth, sixth, and seventh in NFL passing offense those seasons), a top-12 finish should be within reach.
Cincinnati fell to 30th last season behind weak-armed backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bengals tied for last in YPA (5.2) and touchdown passes (11), and had the 32nd spot all to themselves in completions of 20 or more yards (21).
While Palmer isn't guaranteed to regain his 2007 form (7.2 YPA, 26 TD passes, 51 completions of 20+ yards), defenses will at least have to respect his arm, and Cincinnati has upgraded its offensive line. The running game naturally has questions because of its unpredictable starter, but the offense will be better if only because Fitzpatrick is gone.
Let's look at the Bengals' receiver depth chart to see where the extra yardage and touchdowns should go:
Is Chad Ocho Cinco an obvious buy-low this offseason? He’s a proven Pro Bowl talent coming off a disastrous season. Between the shoulder injury and the loss of Carson Palmer, he never really had a chance. He’s a near lock to return to 1,000 yards this season, right?
I think Ocho Cinco falls under the category of "somebody else's problem." His value is low, but that doesn't mean I have to make it my problem to see that it rises again.
Has Carson Palmer put the elbow problems behind him for good? I remain skeptical that he will bounce back to normal in 2009. What’s normal for Palmer now anyway? He can kiss those 2005-06 glory years good-bye forever.
Signing with Seattle for huge dollars is great news for the Houshmandzadeh family. The same isn't true for his fantasy owners.
Housh will be going from an ideal fantasy situation in Cincy: Playing on a pass-first offense with a great quarterback and number one receiver who helps deflect attention.
The new Seahawk regime looks very different. Matt Hasselbeck is a good quarterback, but he's turning 34 and has major back problems. The new coaching staff plans to install an offense that leans heavily on the run. The rest of the receiver group is mediocre, so Housh may see a lot of double coverage.
Houshmandzadeh also has to learn a new offense. That didn't go smoothly for Deion Branch in Seattle, although Housh does seem like a natural flanker in a West Coast scheme. He can line up outside and in the slot and will take many of the same routes that Bobby Engram used to run.
Add it all up, and it's fair to expect Houshmandzadeh's fantasy numbers to underwhelm. He was a top-15 wideout option between 2005-2007, but fell to 31st in standard leagues when the Ryan Fitzpatrick plague hit Cincinnati. Look for his numbers in Seattle to be closer to his year with Fitzpatrick rather than his peak with Carson Palmer.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh may not get the signing bonus he was hoping for, but he's getting plenty of limo rides.
According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Houshmandzadeh hopped in a limo after spending five and a half hours at the Vikings' Winter Park facility Sunday. He left with team executives for another undisclosed destination nearby. Housh also had dinner with the team Saturday night.
Houshmandzadeh does not appear to be leaving town, which can't be bad news for Minnesota's chances of landing the one-time Pro Bowler. Houshmandzadeh was expected to decide on a team tonight, but Bengals.com reports the decision may not come until Monday.
If the silly season of rumors hadn't officially started before Thursday afternoon, it has now. The National Football Post, former GM Mike Lombardi's site, has a whopper. Now we'll just have to see if they are right.
They say there is a 70% chance T.J. Houshmandzadeh returns to the Bengals, as the two sides are nearing a deal. That would rob the market of our top-rated wide receiver. I suspect Housh could get a bigger payday if he waits, but it just goes to show that all the disgruntled talk in the world doesn't matter.
Houshmandzadeh seemed unhappy with the organziation before, during, and after the Bengals season. He could certainly find a more successful organization elsewhere. But as re-signing Raiders Nmandi Asomugha and Shane Lechler already proved: money talks. Duh.
My attention the last few days has been on the NFL Scouting Combine, but I’m not a college football guy. I need a few more days of studying to pretend I know what I’m talking about with these kids, and Mr. Silva has the event covered well in the news. Let’s see what’s gone on this weekend with the guys who are already pro.
The more we hear, the more it sounds like Torry Holt will just get out-right released by the Rams. They could delay the decision until mid-March, but it could be tough for the Rams to get any trade compensation for him. Teams may as well wait for the Rams to kill his contract first.
Jim Mora has had enough of the Michael Vick Experience, thank you very much.
Why is releasing Edgerrin James such a hard decision for the Cardinals? They can replace him in the draft at a fraction of the price, and then some.
Every day, I read a new article that the Bengals have made re-signing Cedric Benson their top priority in free agency. And every day, I feel even worse for poor Chris Wesseling, dynasty blogger extraordinaire, and haunted Bengals fan.
I have no idea why Cedric Benson is a top priority, Shayne Graham is a franchise player, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is going to leave without getting anything in return. Benson should be careful not to overplay his hand, because I don't think he would elicit much interest on the open market. If Benson stays, they still should treat running back as a big need in the draft.
Housh's expected departure was the cause of my most recent pick in my dynasty league draft: Andre Caldwell. I have no idea if Caldwell is up for the task, but he's in the best position to replace Houshmandzadeh's role in Cincy because of his style of play.
When I asked y’all last week about where you thought T.J. Houshmandzadeh would land, I learned a few things.
1) There are a lot of Philly fans who read Rotoworld.
2) They are very hopeful the Eagles get another wide receiver.
The question is whether the Eagles organization also believes wide receiver is a huge position of need. I doubt they do, which is way I didn’t rank Philly as one of the five most likely teams to sign Housh. PhiladelphiaEagles.com also seems to doubt it, and GM Tom Heckert essentially told Eagles fans not to get their hopes up. They already have a future number one receiver: DeSean Jackson.
Now Adam Schefter believes Philly is one of six possible destinations, and I trust him far more than my gut. But it just doesn’t make common sense. Going after Randy Moss, a true game-changer, is one thing. Perhaps even Anquan Boldin. But is Houshmandzadeh, at 31, that big an upgrade over Kevin Curtis and Jason Avant? Is the difference worth $8-9 million a year? The Eagles have more pressing needs - offensive line, secondary, and running back. Look for the Eagles to address those needs rather than paying Housh big bucks.
My last post asked where will T.J. Housmandzadeh wind up, and I mentioned 12 possibilities other than the Bengals. Now I'll leave the answer up to you.
NFL Network’s Steve Wyche has sources that say T.J. Houshmandzadeh is as good as gone in Cincy. Despite Mike Lombardi’s evaluation, I’d take him over Antonio Bryant and any other free agent receiver. The Titans, Bucs (If Bryant leaves), and Eagles were mentioned by Wyche as possible landing spots. Those all make sense, but the Eagles may feel comfortable with DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and Jason Avant now. The Titans have a big receiver need and were reportedly willing to give up a high pick for Torry Holt last year. Housh would be perfect there.
Off the top of my head, here’s how I’d rank possible landing spots, not including Cincinnati.
One of my favorite annual columns of the year: Jason Whitlock's grades. If every team had a writer I trusted this much giving grades on each player, the start of my off-season preparation would be a lot easier. Whitlock manages to slam Gonzo's selfishness despite a high grade. The young Kansas City cornerbacks and T Branden Albert look like the bright spots of a dismal year. Mark Bradley could be a keeper. Tyler Thigpen is a nice find, but I agree with Whitlock that he's not a franchise quarterback. Glenn Dorsey, Tank Tyler, and Turk McBride were disasters on the defensive line. Larry Johnson? Fail.
A nice look at the Patriots roster for now and the future. They need youth everywhere on their defense, but the offense should be stable heading into next season.
The natives are restless in Buffalo. 90% wanted Dick Jauron out? Jauron will be the first Bills coach of their last three to make it to his fourth year. Continuity isn't a bad thing with a young team.
Antonio Gates says he didn't recover from his foot injury until last week. Now he's hurt again, but the ankle problem is minor. Something to keep in mind when evaluation his season.
"(The Colts and Ravens) are the strongest ones. San Diego, they have been playing great football of late, but watching them (beat Denver on Sunday night) I saw some things that we as a team could expose.
Cedric Benson is the long-term answer at running back in Cincy? That sounds like a dangerous assessment. We'll see what Marvin Lewis thinks.
The Colts allowed fewer passing touchdowns than any defense in NFL history. Tony Dungy's system doesn't get enough credit for their consistently great pass defense, no matter who is playing.
Shanahan's son doesn't totally disagree with Denver's decision that it was time for both sides to move on. He thinks it might prove to be a good move for both sides.
Shanahan's drafts from 2001-2005 did him in. The last few have been solid. The only decent player from the previous four is D.J. Williams, and it looks like they overpaid him to stay around.
Jay Cutler, always willing to be honest, isn't happy about the move. But there seems to be a decent chance that some of the offensive staff, like his QB coach Jeremy Bates, will stay in place. That would indicate that a defensive head coach would be a target. That would help smooth the transition.
Chad Johnson's absence elevates T.J. Housmandzadeh slightly in my updated rankings on Season Pass. The weather won't help matters and the Steelers are the best pass defense in the league, so Housh is still rankled only No. 24. Cincy is missing the left side of their offensive line and they couldn't protect Ryan Fitzpatrick when they were healthy. It promises to be an ugly game, with the Steelers likely to start running clock once they get two scores up. Chris Henry gets his chance to start, but he'll run into the same problem Chad Johnson had. Fitzpatrick can't complete vertical passes.
I'm getting a lot of emails that ask about trade offers for Chad Ocho Cinco and Andre Johnson. A.J. is one of the slow starters that I'm absolutely confident will bounce back. I was preaching patience before with Ocho, but he's toxic now. Unless you are in a 0-4 hole or have an ugly roster in need of a gamble, I can't imagine taking the plunge on Johnson. And it's all about Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Despite some optimistic quotes, I get bad vibes coming out of Cincy regarding Carson Palmer's elbow. Maybe I'm wrong, and Palmer will return this week looking good as new. But he's not even throwing in practice yet, and any long-term injury sinks Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, not to mention Chris Perry. I like calculated risks, but not this one.
ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported Monday night that the Bengals are shopping Rudi Johnson. Just like the Seahawks once wanted to deal Shaun Alexander, the Raiders wanted to deal LaMont Jordan, and the Steelers wanted to deal Najeh Davenport. It will never happen, and the rumor calls into question whether Rudi will even make the team. He may not react kindly to this news and they sound ready to move on. Rudi's been a huge part of their organization, but good for them. Stay far, far away from Johnson in drafts this week. (And bump Chris Perry and Kenny Watson further up your boards.)
Evan Silva is on the Dose Monday, so I thought I'd break down the preseason Week 2 headlines here throughout the day. We'll keep these quick, but they are the items you have to know from the almost meaningful
1. Kevin Smith passes Tatum Bell, starts for Lions: Moves like this in preseason Week 2 aren't always permanent, but this one might be. Next week is a better indication. We'll have to watch closely next week, but I still don't think Bell is a lock to make the team.
2. Chad Johnson hurts his shoulder: All signs point towards Johnson being ready for Week 1. We worry some about Johnson's readiness for the year after a lost offseason, but ultimately it shouldn't affect his draft slot much.
3. Rudi keeps failing: After promises that he'd play Sunday, Rudi Johnson's hamstring tightened up. Chris Perry started and looks like a committee back at worst to start the year. Kenny Watson played behind Perry, although they may just want to see what they have in Perry. Perry should be climbing boards, with Rudi falling. Either way, Rudi is confirming our worst fears with a lost month of work.
They say they want Rudi Johnson to carry the load, but he's barely practiced because of another hamstring injury. Those counting on a bounceback season should be wary. Kenny Irons is gone, so we saw a committee of Kenny Watson and Chris Perry Monday night.
The nice folks at NFL.com put together a highlight package for Perry. He showed surprising power. It's clear he's healthier than he has been since 2005. But he's not the type of back that can carry a full load. I found it interesting that he and Kenny Watson would routinely replace each other on third downs. They are interchangeable parts, and I suspect they will split the load evenly when Rudi gets hurt again.
Check around your favorite team's official website this week and you'll see a new page up: Depth Charts! Teams are required to give their first depth charts of the season before their first preseason game - this week. These are fun to look at, but the coaches plead with us not to take them seriously. Sometimes, they are ridiculous. Like the Falcons putting Matt Ryan fourth at quarterback. Sometimes, coaches use them as motivational tools.
Whatever the reason, there are always a few eye openers. Here were the ones that caught my eye this week:
I promise to stop posting about what dribbles out of Chad Johnson's mouth soon. But his latest interview on Bengals.com is the best proof yet that Ocho Cinco is in full-blown fence-mending mode. I've long said that I plan to draft Johnson as if this offseason drama never happened. And these comments are the best proof yet that he's not going to cause more problems.
Tiffany and I taped a video Tuesday afternoon on where to draft all the Bengals players. So what if it looks old now that Chad Johnson is undergoing ankle surgery? Honestly, Johnson's ankle surgery won't change my rankings if he is ready for camp, like they anticipate. While I'm plugging other material, I also wrote up notes from around the AFC in a column yesterday.
An important Chris Cooley/Jason Campbell interview, that includes this exchange: "Rabach has even farted on my hand which is a feelin that never really wears off. I can actually feel it while we’re doing this interview right now."
A nuanced take on the LeCharles Bentley saga from the dean of Cleveland sports, Terry Pluto. He also has some interesting bits on Brady Quinn's improvement.
More from Earnest Graham: He showed up in good shape, but won't guarantee that he will be to training camp on time. And he recognizes that he's not a lock to start.
Mike Lombardi's enlightening new blog talks about Javon Walker, with good inside information.
1. Second-round pick Jerome Simpson is well behind fellow rookie Andre Caldwell. Caldwell has a decent chance to be the team's third receiver, but Marcus Maxwell and Antonio Chatman are also in the mix.
2. Chad Johnson just can't go through with being a true pain in the ass. By the last day of minicamp, he was fully practicing and talking plenty with Carson Palmer. This is not a T.O. in Philadelphia situation.
3. Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry remain healthy, and at the top of the depth chart at running back. After DeDe Dorsey was hurt, undrafted rookie James Johnson may have a shot to make the team.
Chad Johnson showed up to minicamp, proving once again that summer holdout talk is inherently worthless. Nothing to see here folks - keep drafting him as you normally would.
Hard to believe, but a lot of teams are wrapping up their OTA/minicamp season with mandatory work this week.
Some relative bombshells (for June) to come out in a two hour span.
The problems with success, Part I: Plaxico Burress is refusing to work until he gets a new deal. A training camp holdout sounds possible, although we wouldn't get overly concerned.
Former Pro Bowler LeCharles Bentley asks for and receives his release because he doesn't like being a reserve after being hurt for two years. What does he expect? Cleveland's offensive line still has plenty of depth.
This week's Fix looks at guys with the opportunity to bounce back this season. I'm not necessarily saying that they will, just that they are set up with excellent chances.
I know the one minute video is tough to bear (especially in these dark non-Tiffany summer days), so my list from the video is after the jump
Maybe the Bengals just got tired of swinging and missing on draft day at running back. Along with Arizona, they were one of the most surprising teams to pass on selecting a running back early. But the Cardinals did dive in with fifth-round pick Tim Hightower (no relation.)
What a day. Honestly I'm buried in other work (maybe taking this Managing Editor means way more responsibility. Hmmm ... ). But I can't pass up commenting on some of the big stories of the day. No matter how much my time is supposed to be spent on other things.
God bless Jeff Ireland if he was intentially messing with the media when he used the "pillar of defense" line. I still think he's just not experienced speaking publicly and it was a slip of the tongue.
I like how confident the Dolphins were that Jake Long was a left tackle. No doubt in their mind. They almost were incredulous at the line of questioning. I trust the judgement of Tony Sparano and Bill Parcells. And making Long the first pick as a left tackle makes more sense.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the latest round of Ocho Cinco blather was Adam Schefter's note that Cincy has already received an offer of two first-day picks for Johnson. (Is that the old first day - three rounds - or the new first day of two rounds? I'm guesing the former).
If someone is offering that much before the draft, the price should go up on draft day. And that means the Bengals would have to consider the offer, even though I think he'll stay put. So is this mystery team? Here are my five best guesses based on ammunition (draft picks) and need.
With the 9th pick in the 2008 NFL draft, the Cincinnati Bengals should select: OT Ryan Clady from Boise St.
Many agree that the biggest need for the Cincinnati Bengals is on the defensive side of the ball.
Specifically,a run stopping DT. With Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis off the board, the remaining top defensive player that the Bengals would likely consider is OLB Keith Rivers from USC. However, the Bengals have a bevy of linebackers and may find some answers on defense with the possible return of David Pollack and Odell Thurman.
What Bengals owner Mike Brown really cares most about is putting butts in seats and lining his own pockets (no GM and having the leagues smallest scouting dept are examples of his lack of commitment). As we all know, having a high powered offense will do that. As a result, protecting Carson Palmer is of utmost importance. Willie Anderson is in the twilight his career and Levi Jones has battled injuries of late.
The addition of Ryan Clady will help offset concerns about the fading strength at the tackle position, and help solidify the offensive line.
It wouldn't be an NFL offseason without a Chris Henry mugshot. And this one is a doozy. We have to be careful in this media age not to convict someone based on initial reports, but this sure looks damning for Henry's future.
Commissioner Roger Goodell has shown with Pacman Jones that getting exonerated in court doesn't mean you avoid problems with the league. Henry was suspended for eight games last year and was on a "no tolerance" policy with the league. This arrest is likely enough to suspend him for a year in the eyes of the league.
Mock Drafts aren't usually built on original thought. They primarily look at other Mock Drafts, switch some names, teams, and needs around, and go from there. Even draftniks who spend the college season following the players tend to have similar rankings because they read each other, but don't know what NFL scouts are seeing or saying.
I've been sold on Mike Mayock's mock drafts since 2005, when he had Aaron Rodgers falling all the way to number 25 to the Packers. It's not just that he nailed a pick absolutely no one saw coming, it's that he had the confidence and research to make his own decision instead of following the masses. His pipeline to NFL teams probably doesn't hurt. He revealed his first top-ten Mock picks last week and there were a few stunners that should be taken seriously. Let's take a look ...
How hard is it for a good offensive linemen to reach free agency? The Bengals made a one-year starter, Stacy Andrews, their franchise player. And it was absolutely the right move.
Andrews is a behemoth who can play guard and tackle, and he would have made a killing on the free agent market. He started 14 games this year (10 at right tackle) after starting only three in his career before this year. Assuming the Panthers tag Jordan Gross, three of my top eight ranked offensive linemen headed for free agency have already been kept. Baltimore's Jason Brown and Dallas' Flozell Adams are also probably staying put.
Mark Curnette had a number of nuggets yesterday about the Bengals that helps to clear up the running back situation for 2008.
* The team expects to bring Rudi Johnson back. I thought he might get cut after averaging 2.9 yards-per-carry, but they have plenty of cap room to delay any decision. I still believe they could cut him in camp, but they will see how he looks then.
Going to start this morning following up a few of the stories we've looked at this week. When I made the case that Chad Johnson was likely to stay in Cincy, I may have overlooked the biggest reason: his cap hit.
Mark Curnette of the Cincinnati Enquirer got confirmation from the NFL that the Bengals would absorb a $8.03 million cap hit if they dealt Johnson before June 1. There is no avoiding it. That's a huge blow to suffer just to get rid of a Pro Bowl player.
The Ocho Cinco offseason telenovela has already become ridiculous, and it's only early February. It's like his agent Drew Rosenhaus sent Johnson tapes of clients Javon Walker and Terrell Owens to study before talking in public: How to be a disgruntled receiver 101.
I've always been a big fan of Johnson, but trying to annoy the Bengals to death (or trade) doesn't suit him. After pleading with every radio host in the country to be dealt and moping through some parties in Arizona, Johnson was downright testy at the Pro Bowl in Hawaii. He reportedly shoved a league media official.
Here's how Johnson explains his discontent to the NFL Network:
Spending the day preparing some things for next week, but here are a few stories of note from a calm-before-the-storm Friday.
Another article pointing out that Chad Johnson isn't going anywhere. I trust Mark Curnette here, who is always on top of the Bengals. There might be a lot of ink spilled this offseason about Ocho Cino, but he should be back. Now if he could only learn his routes...
5. Laurence Maroney, Patriots - Remember how fantasy owners used to curse the Patriots passing game because they spread the ball around too much? That happened to Maroney this year in the running game. Even before his injury, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk were outplaying him in their roles. His strong finish (6 tds in seven weeks) gave hope for 2008, but it defied any expectations that Maroney didn’t score until Week 11 on the highest scoring team of all time.
4. Marc Bulger, Rams - Plenty of owners took Bulger ahead of Tom Brady and Tony Romo, and with good reason. He was coming off a 4,300 yard season and had never averaged under 256 yards-per-game in his career. He didn’t even crack 200 this year, and only threw 11 touchdowns while doing his best late-career Drew Bledsoe impression. Hopefully a healthy offensive line leads to better play.
3. Marvin Harrison, Colts - I tried to avoid injured players here, but Harrison’s case was special for a lot of reasons. He had missed a total of two games in the last eight years. He played at a position where almost all the top picks performed well enough. Most excruciatingly, Harrison originally got hurt in Week 3, and the Colts said it was a minor bruise. He gained 24 yards the rest of the year while he strung owners along with a brutal week-to-week non-comeback story. You get the sense around the Colts that they weren’t happy with Harrison’s long rehab, and neither were fantasy owners.
Some running backs having more value than normal in this wild Week 17.
DeAngelo Willimas, Panthers- Finally starting to play over DeShaun Foster in key spots, and playing well. Could position himself for starting consideration in 2008.
Musa Smith, Ravens - The day has arrived! Too bad he'll be playing with Troy Smith.
There is something inherently cheesy about picking up a team defense for a playoff matchup, but that doesn't mean it's a bad idea.
Plenty of owners rolled with the Bengals versus Brock Berlin, and they were a Rams defensive score away from holding St. Louis to three points. I picked up Bengals with an eye on this week's matchup against San Francisco. The news that Shaun Hill will make his first NFL start doesn't disappoint me. Here's a look at the three best possible defensive pickups this week. I'm only including teams not ranked in the top-15 fantasy scorers this year.
1. Baltimore (vs. Miami)
2. Tampa (vs. Atlanta)
3. Cincinnati (vs. San Francisco)
Some other choice matchups include Green Bay (vs. Rams), Colts (vs. Raiders), Titans (vs. Chiefs), and Seahawks (vs. Panthers).
I usually don't get carried away with weather forecasts, but watching Monday night's game in Pittsburgh has me spooked because of the field conditions.
It's clear that field will be a mess if it continues to rain Sunday night for the Bengals-Steelers game. And wouldn't you know, our friends at Weatherplus (who provide Season Pass and Fantasy Fix Live with forecasts) says there is a 70% chance of rain on Sunday.
Chris Henry wouldn't have received nearly the same hype if he actually played the first eight games of the season. But we are fascinated about the next big thing, and many owners were hoping he'd help them turn around their season.
So far, so good. Henry led the Bengals in receiving with 99 yards Sunday, making a 50-yard grab and a beautiful sideline catch. He had seven targets, the same as Chad Johnson, and one less than T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
I've long believed that Henry is the most talented receiver on the Bengals. I think he can be one of the ten best receivers in football, if he keeps his head on straight. So that probably won't happen.
Henry won't be one of the ten best fantasy wideouts while splitting the pot three ways, but he's going to help Carson Palmer's numbers while putting up WR3-type numbers. Housh and Ocho Cinco may see fewer targets overall moving forward, but they aren't going to fall off a cliff.
Rudi Johnson returns this week, but I wouldn't immediately slot him into your RB2 spot. The Bengals will split carries between him and Kenny Watson and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Watson get more carries and receptions.
Rudi tried to play a few weeks ago, and his hamstring didn't allow him to finish the game. That's typical of hamstring injuries. Watson has earned a large role moving forward with his excellent play, and I'd start him over Johnson this week if I had to choose.
Don't assume this is a cake matchup for Carson Palmer and company. The Bills' pass defense have been playing lights out recently despite all their injuries. They picked off Tony Romo like crazy, stopped Baltimore cold, and got Chad Pennington benched. Look for them to play off the line of scrimmage, just like Pittsburgh did last year, allowing Watson and Rudi big openings.
If I was still a betting man, the Bills +1 is one of the worst lines I've seen all season. The Bengals are a weak-willed team who crumble when they are pushed. Buffalo has been an exceptionally tough team despite a host of possible excuses. The line doesn't shock me, but based on their play Buffalo should be 5 point favorites.
The Bengals have had their chances in this game, and are doing some things to make the Patriots uncomfortable. But it says a lot that Cincinnati appears to be slowing the game down in an effort to keep it close. The Patriots want to take Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh out of the game, and so far it's worked. They have 51 yards combined.
It may be the skeptic in me, but I think this game is going to get a lot more interesting in the second half.
As a not particularly proud owner of Kenny Watson in multiple leagues, I face a difficult question: Do I play him?
It depends on the team of course. One of my better teams, he's still my fifth-best option. On another, he's my RB2 because of injuries and bye weeks.
Kenny Watson is a borderline RB2/flex play this week against the Pats. I have him ranked No. 24, just behind guys like Edgerrin James, Brian Leonard, and Ron Dayne. He's just ahead of Warrick Dunn, Jamal Lewis, Kevin Jones, and DeAngelo Williams.
The Patriots are a tough matchup on the ground and I don't expect Watson to top 50 yards rushing. But the New England linebackers aren't great in coverage, and the Bengals should be able to move the ball. If the Patriots can score 40 against the Bengals, the Cincy offense will be winging it to keep up. And Cincy's receivers present matchup problems for the smurf-like Pats corners.
I expect this to be the closest Patriots game of the year, and believe the Bengals can put up 30 points. That gives Watson a reasonable chance to score and put up some yardage catching the ball underneath.
In Waiver Wired, I ranked Kenny Watson fourth among possible running back pickups this week behind Aaron Stecker. Following the news that Rudi Johnson could miss Monday night's game, Watson looks looks like an even better choice.
Rudi Johnson sounded confident he'd play after the game, but actions speak louder than words. The Bengals signed Pancake Block fascination DeDe Dorsey Tuesday, a clear sign they are worried about Rudi's health.
Johnson owners need to pick up Watson as a handcuff, and the Bengals reserve has plenty of value as fantasy depth for all owners. Any Bengals starting running back, temporary or otherwise, is at least a decent flex option. Dorsey knows Cincy's system (he spent last offseason with them), and could receive carries sooner than later if Johnson's injury lingers. He's worth a look in deep dynasty leagues.
Welcome to the first ever fantasy football blog written from the back of a speeding cab. In a move that will sound all too familiar to those who know me, I'm running into some issues on the way to the airport today. On the train back to New York City from Connecticut (where we tape the Fantasy Fix), I left a suitcase on the train while spacily departing (I had been editing some Rotoworld stuff. All for the people!).
Turned on NFL Network when I got to work this morning and watched Mike Periera's weekly "Official Review" segment on Total Access. He basically admitted the obvious: The offensive pass interference called on Todd Heap late in the Bengals game was the wrong judgement. It should have been a non-call.
The wildly negative stories in Baltimore this week would have a much different tone if the right call had been made. And we wouldn't be talking about how Kyle Boller didn't come through.
I broke out the preseason notebook Tuesday with the Falcons/Jets. Let me know if this is the type of thing you guys like in the future. Here goes a few notes from the Lions-Bengals and Jaguars-Dolphins.
Jaguars-Dolphins
* Miami's young offensive line was manhandled by Jacksonville. It was like they weren't there. Trent Green had some ugly throws, but no one would have played well. This could be a rare case of the preseason showing something if the trend continues. If Miami's line gets pushed around like this all August, I'd consider downgrading Ronnie Brown.
* Cleo Lemon threw a few beautiful passes, but they were against third-teamers. He needs a monster game this week for a chance to start, but he's still a big long shot.
In my quest to continue writing about backup running backs no one really cares about, let's revisit last week's draft guide adjustment on Kenny Watson.
My original fixes look optimistic in retrospect, especially after reading that Quincy Wilson may be first in line to see an increased role.
The Bengals were concerned enough about their sagging rushing game to invest a second-round pick in Kenny Irons. Now they are back at square one. Let's look at the fantasy impact of Irons' ACL tear.
First, it's a devastating blow to Irons' dynasty owners, who rightly saw him as a high-ceiling long-term prospect and as Rudi Johnson's likely successor. The Bengals don't know what they have in him now.
Rudi Johnson may be starting his decline, but this injury cements his top-ten grade. As we've written about all summer, the Bengals were planning to take carries away from Rudi Johnson if he didn't improve his efficiency. Irons was set to take third-down snaps from Kenny Watson, and probably more early down snaps from Johnson than Rudi's owners expected. Now Johnson should get to his 330 carries by default.
# 25. Bengals backup RB: Kenny Watson vs. Kenny Irons
Must resist lame South Park joke. Irons was drafted to replace Chris Perry, who is likely to start the year on the PUP list. First Irons will have to pass Watson as the team’s third-down back. Smart money is on the rookie. Watson is a serviceable reserve who helps on special teams, but the Bengals would rather he not have to carry a big load.
In fact, there are some that believe Irons could challenge Rudi. I don’t that will happen until later in the season, but Marvin Lewis has mentioned on his top priorities is improving the team’s yards-per-carry. If Rudi doesn’t get back above 4.0, the Bengals backfield could look like a committee late in the year. That makes Irons one of our favorite late running back fliers – if he wins the backup job in camp.
# 33. Bengals third receiver: Tab Perry vs. Antonio Chatman
This is a battle that will be overrated in most circles. I’ve seen Perry get drafted in industry leagues, but at best he’s a third receiver for half a season. Why bother? Housh and Ocho Cinco will get all the work. Perry has nine career catches and is coming off a major leg injury. Chatman is an undersized player who missed nearly all of last year with a groin injury. Don't completely discount second-year player Bennie Brazell or Reggie McNeal either. Its not like Perry and Chatman are established with the Bengals.
In the end, I'd rather take Chris Henry for eight weeks than any of these guys for 16.
Just arrived to Beckett's in Dallas and excited to see how the magazine is turning out. I loved our latest cover (there's a link for the new magazine for those who asked), but we're going back to a look closer to our baseball magazine for this one.
So it's still up for debate. Who makes the cover? I want Frank Gore, but I'm getting vetoed. Some other options: Reggie Bush, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Steven Jackson. What do you guys think?
(And for those on the Fantasy Mill, I'm not just asking rhetorically. The Rotoworld version of the blog has comments. You can also email me.
Contender for best team blog on the web, Redskins Insider returns from a brief vacation with a trio of posts Monday.
Lots of great stuff in there, from updates on Alex Brown and Lance Briggs trade situations, to doubts about Clinton Portis' readiness for the preseason. Rocky McIntosh, who I expect to have a huge season, is having a nice offseason.
Matt Hasselbeck has a good point regarding the new positions for his receivers. It's not a huge adjustment in practice because Darrell Jackson barely practiced anyway. I only hope D.J. Hackett can keep up his level of production at the split end spot. He's talented enough to make any position work and should have a chance to catch more touchdowns that way.
As a Patriots fan, I couldn't agree more with the sentiment in this article. Where are the Patriots going to manufacture their disrespect from? Their best seasons (2001, 2003, 2006) are traditionally the ones in which they sneak up on the NFL a bit. 2004 was really the only season where they stayed at the top of the mountain the whole way. The most disappointing years in the Belichick era (2002, 2005) were ones with great expectations.
I'm not worried about the 2007 team, but it could take the team a while to gell. As usual. If there is one defining trait of the Belichick era, it's that they close stronger than they start. And with a much harder schedule, it's not hard to imagine a disappointed fanbase despite a 11-5 record. We've become way too spoiled.
Could Kenny Irons be used in tandem with Rudi Johnson? Maybe Irons isn't the Rudi clone I thought. He certainly has some of the skills you would want to use on third downs. The Bengals would probably get a better running game if they decreased Rudi's carries by 50-75. The idea could make Rudi a slightly riskier pick at the end of the first round in fantasy leagues.
Some interesting notes at Bears practice Monday. Greg Olsen is standing out with Desmond Clark absent. Adam Archuleta and Alex Brown are working with the second team, at least for now. Lovie Smith likes sending messages in offseason practices. He's not happy with Brown's trade request and Arch won't be handed anything.
This story is gratifying in so many ways and ends my day here beautifully.
Not only is Chad Johnson racing a horse, but the match-up has a name ("Man vs. Beast") and will be simulcast to 400 outlets across the country and in South America.
Looks like that Ocho Cinco marketing broadened Chad's appeal.
Okay, I'm running out of .Com headquarters in Stamford back to New York for the night. One more minicamp update coming ...
