Gregg raised a good point about job security with his Shaun Hill post earlier today. Which other quarterbacks will have to win early in the season in order to keep their jobs?
No-Brainers:
Kyle Orton, Broncos – Far from a lock to be a long-term answer in Denver, Orton’s contract is up after the season and Josh McDaniels could go in another direction.
Chad Pennington, Dolphins – The Miami papers have been all over this one. Chad Henne is ready, Penny is a poor bet to stay healthy and his contract is up after the season.
Jason Campbell, Redkins – The Redskins refuse to commit to Campbell beyond ’09. Another stretch of games like the second half of last season will land him on the bench.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders – Russell will start Week 1 regardless of preseason performance, but Jeff Garcia is looming if the offense stumbles out of the gate.
Shaun Hill – When you look at his performance and won-loss record, Hill has earned a long look. Alex Smith, though, has better tools and is the apple of the GM’s eye.
Stewart hasn't practiced once this offseason because of an ankle injury, missing a total of seven practices by my count. The injury isn't believed to be serious, but Stewart won't make up ground on DeAngelo Williams if he doesn't practice for a second straight summer. (Pre-draft toe surgery kept him out until camp last year, which helped solidify Williams' spot atop the depth chart.)
Stewart is arguably one of the five most talented backs alive; there just aren't many humans with the size, speed, and natural running instincts that Stewart possesses. But Stewart must get tougher if he wants to be one of the five best backs in the league. I'm not talking about his ability to break tackles, which is elite. He needs to show that he can withstand minor injuries.
Stewart ran with aggression as a rookie, but he often left the field during games, only to return later. He spoke about his injuries in the media to a degree I suspect John Fox was uncomfortable with.
Learning how to practice and play through pain is a typical part of the learning process for young backs, but Fox figures to continue favoring Williams until Stewart proves he can stay on the field consistently. No matter how talented Stewart is.
Time for everyone's favorite short-lived running segment from last year I forgot about: Tough to Rank. In it, I bring up a player that could seemingly go in any direction and throw it to the floor to find out your infinite wisdom.
First up is last year's Fantasy MVP: DeAngelo Williams. In the first half of last season, Williams was the RB19: 620 total yards, five scores. In the second half, he went bonkers: 1,038 total yards, 15 scores!
The franchise tags are coming fast and furious. Texans CB Dunta Robinson and Seahawks LB LeRoy Hill are the latest young talents to be kept off the market. With Jordan Gross signed long-term, the Panthers have franchised Julius Peppers. They are likely to seek a trade, but may also try to exhaust all chances of retaining him. This once-promising free agent class is drying up before it starts.
It’s not that Robinson and Hill are truly top-five talents at their position. It’s just that there is SO much cap room these days and one-year deals are essentially team friendly, no matter how high the cap number. Soak up a player’s prime while you can and worry about a long-term deal later.
It remains to be seen how the economy changes free agent spending. But the record quantity of cap room has had a profound effect on free agency. Staying under the cap is so much less of an issue than it used to be. That’s why the Patriots can spend $29 million, for now, on quarterbacks. That's how the Panthers can keep Gross and Peppers. That's how Nmamdi Asomugha can get $45 million over three years. (Make that money!) With the exception of a few teams, most are not overly hamstrung by cap considerations. Teams simply don’t let young players they want to keep walk away, with very few exceptions.
Update: After Max Starks was tagged, we have reached a record 14 tags. 11 was the previous record.
Adam Schefter reports that the Cardinals are expected to use their franchise tag on Karlos Dansby for the second straight year. They will have to pay him $9.6 million if they can’t get him signed to a long-term deal. After watching a lot of Cardinals games over the last month, I think he’s worth it. He’s the key player on their defense; absolutely a Pro Bowl quality player.
Tagging Dansby is a decent indication they are confident they can re-sign Kurt Warner.
Evan Silva with an excellent Combine preview – the “action” starts Thursday, but really gets cranking over the weekend.
If the Saints re-sign Devery Henderson, it will be another sign that they don’t particularly trust Robert Meachem. After a decent start, Meachem faded badly with five catches after Week 5 despite injuries at wideout in New Orleans.
Meachem’s three plays over 45 yards were nice, but he’s the 22nd among his rookie class in receiving yards in his short career despite playing on a pass-happy offense. Eight ’08 rookies also out-produced Meachem’s two combined seasons. hell, eight Saints caught more passes than him in '08 (Mark Campbell tied him for ninth.)
If I was searching for a recent comp for Meachem’s career start, it would probably be Henderson. That’s not a good sign either.
Tom Brady came out of hiding Wednesday to talk to the Fan590 in Toronto of all places. Brady didn't say much about his injury, except, "S*** happens." As Evan Silva pointed out, apparently you can say anything on Canadian radio.
Brady sounded predictably upbeat about his recovery and said all's well. I suspect we won't know much about Brady's rehab until the day he hits the field again - in game action. Tom Curran thinks that may not happen until midway through next year.
The Patriots are expected to promote Bill O'Brien to quarterbacks coach - not offensive coordinator. This sets up a situation where Bill Belichick looks like the favorite to call plays to start the season, much like 2005.
Tackle Matt Light was asked if Belichick is taking on too many roles:
Some people are surprised about Bill Belichick's glowing, personal comments about Pioli, but they shouldn't be. For one, Belichick isn't shy about praising the few people that get his unbending respect: Randy Moss, Mike Vrabel, Tom Brady, Mike Shanahan, etc. And as Belichick said, Pioli was one of his best friends for almost 20 years and the person Belichick probably feels is as responsible for the Patriots success as anyone, including Brady and Bob Kraft. At nine years, Belichick/Pioli were the longest running coach/personnel man combo in the league.
As a Patriots fan, I feel pretty confident Josh McDaniels will be a good head coach. I never felt that about the three wisemen: Mangini, Weis, and Crennel. But I'm almost sure Pioli will turn the Kansas City franchise around. He had plenty of autonomy in New England and Belichick/Pioli learned to think as one anyhow. Pioli will bring his successful framework and system of acquisition to Kansas City, a team that never had a long-term vision. Now he just needs to find a coach.
***
Mike Lombardi has inside knowledge of what "program" Pioli will want to run. He thinks Kirk Ferentz of Iowa would fit, but Ferentz may not be willing to go pro.
The only problem? John Fox already says Jake Delhomme isn't going anywhere. Fox said, "I can promise you," that Delhomme's outing wouldn't change how he viewed his quarterback. Delhomme, who turned 34 years old on the day he threw five picks, is under contract for one more year for a total of $6.3 million. He won't get an extension, but that's reasonable for one year. Now the Panthers just need to start planning on what they will do in 2010. Matt Moore is a fine young option on the roster, but look for them to add another body in the off-season, whether it's through the draft or free agency.
Kurt Warner's last chance! DeAngelo Williams' first! Some people to talk to because my wife doesn't care about football! Panthers/Cardinals liveblog starting ... now.
DeAngelo Williams is not suffering LenDale White gladly. The production value is impressive. If you click on any of these links, make it this one. What is it about these North Carolina folk and their attack ads?
Carlos Rogers could be on the way out in Washington. This seems too insane to be true. Perhaps Rogers will ask to leave after playing behind DeAngelo Hall late in the year, but the Redskins would be crazy to listen. Cheap, young, prime starting talent is who you hold on to. The secondary is the best part about the Redskins. Why would you want to break it up?
Mike Lombardi, who should be a lot of fun to read during the front office silly season, says Mike Tannenbaum is the new Isiah Thomas in New York. Ouch.
Lombardi also points out that Brian Schottenheimer remains under contract. There is some thought already that Schottenheimer has a decent chance at the head coaching job. Tannenbaum just fired a close friend after the team went 9-7. He probably had no choice, but it seemed more related to Mangini's style within the organization rather than his performance on game day. Mike Francessa thinks that Woody Johnson wants to keep Brett Favre, and keeping the offensive coordinator is one way to do that. The Favre part sounds like a terrible idea.
NFL Free Agency starts early this year, just like the season. And on a Wednesday, rather than the traditional Friday. More pageviews!
Jay Cutler still doesn't think the Chargers are very good. I tend to agree, but they are making it tough on non-believers. Int the end, the Colts have beaten good teams. The Chargers haven't. Even Oakland could win in Tampa with a playoff spot on the line. Denver couldn't beat the Bills at home. The Chargers are playing well now on offense, but they were a Dwayne Bowe dropped onsides kick away from being eliminated three weeks ago.
All we really want in our fantasy football heroes is a little consistency: 100 yards per week, plus a touchdown. Is that too much to ask for? Nearly everyone falls short of this ideal, of course, but two players who have come close are Clinton Portis and Steve Smith.
Smith is the anti-Chad Johnson. His value before the season got knocked because of his off-season, but he's picked up right where he left off with Jake Delhomme. Smith is averaging 94 yards-per-game, and hasn't fallen below 96 in the last three. The touchdowns will come, but the consistency is why Smith is a top-five receiver moving forward.
I was coming up with a list of players I'd trade LaDainian Tomlinson for with a co-worker. Would Clinton Portis be on your list? He's currently the number one standard fantasy back, but you don't get his old stats when you trade for him. He leads the NFL in rushes and rushing yards. He's scored six times. About the only negative thing about Portis is that he's suddenly not catching passes and he's on pace for almost 362 carries. That may catch up to him, but perhaps not until next year.
Portis has been a model of consistency, with at least 21 carries in every game. The worst fantasy day he's had since a quiet Week 1 was a 135 total yard effort in in Week 4. So will Portis maintain his spot atop the charts? My guess is no, but who do you think passes him?
The earlier poll was such a massive hit, let's do it again.
One of the parts I love about this job is how much value can change in a week. Seven days ago, I'm pretty sure every Ronnie Brown owner would have dealt him for a young, rising star like Jonathan Stewart. After Stewart was stuffed by the Vikings and Ronnie went wild, it's a closer call.
These are two of my favorite players. I tried to remain steadfast in my belief of Brown's abilities during the preseason Ricky Williams hype, and it's great to see him recovering all his skills. But how high is his ceiling? Will the Dolphins staff let him be a true lead back? Who will get more touches the rest of the way: Stewart or Brown?
That's a lot of questions. You can answer by choosing below. My gut says Stewart's ceiling for 2008 is a little higher. I like the offense around him better, especially the line. These are both low RB2 players who should prove to be good draft values, but my money is on Stewart being more consistent.
1. Maybe they were fluky: Anthony Fasano didn’t have a catch Sunday. Dante Rosario only had a six-yard catch. Randy McMichael had two catches for 24 yards.
2. Marvin Harrison owners should be concerned that he’s pouting like the playoffs and that Anthony Gonzalez looks like the better player.
3. Reggie, Reggie, Reggie is averaging 3.3 yards-per-carry on the season. The receiving numbers and punt return touchdown absolutely save him, especially in PPR leagues, but let’s not get carried away talking about his maturation just yet.
4. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood learned what life can be like with a rookie quarterback facing a real NFL defense. They went from 313 yards and three scores to 60 yards. Thud.
The most surprising thing about Philip Rivers' awesome Week 1 performance was that no one was surprised. Except me. It was like his ACL surgery never happened. Unlike any recent quarterback returning from that surgery (Carson Palmer, Donavan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Brian Griese), Rivers showed no ill effects from the procedure. He may have looked better.
His accuracy and mobility stuck out - the two skills ACL surgery is supposed to hinder. Rivers had no fear of the pass rush. He patiently waited, dodged, and jumped around in the pocket. He bought extra time, he threw on the run, and he delivered when he was about to get hit. Rivers has never had a cannon, but he was accurate on touch passes and bombs alike against Carolina. I'm not ready to proclaim Rivers a QB1 yet. He's been inconsistent even when healthy, but proved a lot in Week 1.
His opponent in the game, Jake Delhomme, was harder to pin down. He led the Panthers to victory, but he threw some crazily off target passes. One moonball on a deep pass sticks out. I couldn't help wondering if his elbow had any effect on him. There were great moments and head scratchers, then a gutsy finish. In other words, typical Delhomme.
It's safe to say that Jonathan Stewart is healthy. Damn! How is that man 235 pounds? Not to be out-done, DeAngelo Williams broke a 60-yard score on the next possession. Stewart needed to make a statement to earn an even Week 1 split of carries, and he did just that.
One of the hardest parts of my job is to evaluate what matters and what doesn't in training camp. We get so caught up in the day-to-day news, the tendency is to overreact and start drafting based only on August, rather than all the reasons we ranked a player a certain why to begin with. Many camp stories are telling signs. More of them are forgotten, are reversed, or look ridiculous in the cold light of Week 3.
With that introduction, I have to admit it hasn't been a great camp for the Jonathan Stewart believer. He finally made his debut last night, but he's lost some ground to DeAngelo Williams, who has enjoyed a fine camp. Stewart looked okay, the lightest 235 pounds you'll ever see, but he's running tentative. Check out Steve Reed's column on Stewart, which is enlightening.
In which I give a tepid endorsement of D.J. Hackett, a full endorsement of Jonathan Stewart (I have him as a third-round value, not fourth), and no endorsement for Jake Delhomme.
Steve Smith's problems with the Panthers organization may run deeper than his recent fight with Ken Lucas. At least that's what Matt Mosley of ESPN indicates in his blog. Mosley says there are "rumblings" that the Panthers could consider dealing Smith, and that Smith's name has already come up in conversations with Dallas.
Let's be real here: The odds on a trade at this point, especially with John Fox and GM Marty Hurney on the hot seat, seem slim to none. The Panthers offense can barely afford to lose their best player for two games, much less the season. Still, it's a story worth tracking because Smith's two game suspension would likely be lifted in a new locale.
I will write about the situation more, but the punishment didn't wind up hurting Smith that much in our updated projections. Steve Smith + two games of a receiver off your bench still equals top-ten production. Don't let him slip out of the third round.
Steven Jackson gets hit on by his colon cleanser, trashes the Rams fanbase, and throws his teammates' blocking under the bus, all in one jam-packed Michael Silver article.
Beyond the easy jokes I made in his blurb, there were some interesting comments from Jackson about his teammates and the state of the Rams:
For about half a season in 2004, Dan Morgan was one of the top-five linebackers alive. He was finally living up to all the insane potential he had in his curiously fragile frame. Then, as always, his problems with concussions erupted.
He wound up missing a month, then returning for Carolina's playoff run. His 25-tackle performance in the Super Bowl was one of the all-time "Was that a misprint?" box score lines.
As Pat Yasinskas wrote as ESPN, this retirement was for the best. No one wanted to see Morgan's life changed forever after another blow to the head. Morgan's career didn't pan out as hoped, but it provided some brilliant moments. Good luck and health to Morgan moving forward.
Some of you thought the Jamal Lewis vs. Michael Turner battle wasn't very close. I would argue that many of the same people thought Lewis was overrated as a fifth-round pick last year, but the people have spoken. Today's three-way battle is hopefully more interesting: Steve Smith vs. Marques Colston vs. Brandon Marshall.
This year looks promising for Smith, but he's annually overrated by us fantasy types because he's a great NFL player. He only topped 1,200 yards or eight touchdowns once in his career. Marshall and Colston have already equaled that total and play for better passing teams - especially Colston. There is some projecting here, but let's allow that Marshall is healthy well before most draft days, which is expected. Rank 'em in order if you please.
The Panthers have been marred in mediocrity for the past few seasons and need a solid draft to help bring them out of it. Some might argue the current staff needs a solid draft to keep their current jobs. The Panthers could go a number of different directions with the 13th pick of
2008 draft.
Muhsin Muhammad is a decent signing for the Panthers if they are looking for leadership in the locker room. Hopefully they don't see him as a final solution to their lack of wideout depth.
Muhammad can help as a slot receiver, but they still need someone else to push Dwayne Jarrett, who showed next to nothing as a rookie. Jarrett might be the guy, you just can't count on it yet without insurance. My guess is they will bring in another mid-round draft pick or a mid-level veteran not far off Muhammad's level and let them all battle it out. Their offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson comes from the Patriots school, where receivers are somewhat fungible and quantity can be just as important as quality.
At least Tim Couch had multiple shoulder surgeries as an excuse. If this is the end of the line for David Carr, it was his confidence, not his body, that broke down.
It is strange to think a number one overall pick at quarterback could be out of the league before he turns 30. But the damage Carr suffered in 2007 will not be ignored league-wide, and Carr may not want to press on anyway. With a 4.7 yards-per-attempt average, it's no stretch to say Carr was the worst quarterback in the NFL last year.
He was soundly outplayed by 44-year-old (Vinny Testaverde) who joined the Panthers off the couch. Undrafted rookie Matt Moore started the last three games, and looked like Johnny Unitas in comparison to Carr.
The linebackers didn't provide too many fireworks at the combine Monday. One player that stood out for the wrong reasons was LSU's Ali Highsmith. He built his second-round rep as a burner, but ran slower than 4.9 officially on both of his forty runs. His second time was over five seconds. The Combine, like politics, can sometimes be all about expectations. Highsmith fell well short Monday.
Unofficially, no one ran faster than a 4.5 forty by the NFL Network's clock.
DeShaun Foster has had a lot of repuations for a five-year career. First, he was a promising future star following a solid rookie year. Then he was an injury-prone disappointment. Then he was a star waiting to happen, held down by an aging Stephen Davis. For the last two years, he's reminded me of a group of girls in high school that we knew, but didn't have any personality: "The Just-There Gymnasts." DeShaun Foster is just there.
His 3.9 yards-per-carry career average defines average. In the last three years, he has gained between 876-897 rushing yards with two or three touchdowns.
Some running backs having more value than normal in this wild Week 17.
DeAngelo Willimas, Panthers- Finally starting to play over DeShaun Foster in key spots, and playing well. Could position himself for starting consideration in 2008.
Musa Smith, Ravens - The day has arrived! Too bad he'll be playing with Troy Smith.
Is this it for David Carr? I think that's the logical question after John Fox made it clear Wednesday that Vinny Testaverde was Carolina's starter, no matter how healthy Carr is.
Vinny Testaverde was signed less than two months ago and is 44 years old. He didn't have the benefit of learning Carolina's personnel and system all summer like Carr, and yet John Fox, with his job potentially on the line, believes Testaverde gives the Panthers a better chance to win.
Carr has never been a player who has inspired confidence in his teammates, and one suspects that came into play here. Carr usually sounds like a balanced, logical guy to the media. Someone who doesn't view football as life. And while that's a healthy outlook, it's not one that NFL front offices look for.
If Carr can't beat out Vinny Testaverde, he might struggle just to find a backup job next year. And if he's not willing to take very little money (for him) to battle for a roster spot, his once promising career could be over as fast as you can say Tim Couch.
Some owners have written in wondering why I ranked DeShaun Foster so low this week considering his long history of success against the Falcons.
I care that Foster played his best game against Atlanta this year, but the rest of his numbers are meaningless to me. The Falcons have a different defensive coordinator than last year, and different personnel. The Panthers have different offensive personnel, a different offensive coordinator, and a new running scheme. There are too many changes every season on most NFL teams to look back and take those old numbers seriously.
Foster has gained between 43 and 64 rushing yards in the five games since Jake Delhomme was hurt, and those numbers matter more. If Foster moves up ahead of guys like Grant and Holmes on the Friday update, it will be because I trust them even less in retrospect, not because Foster ran well in 2005.
The PFT Podcast is up. I have no idea if people are listening to this, but I think it would make my brief career if someone actually listened to this on the way home from work like I used to with the old Florio and Dante podcasts.
It's safe to watch The Fantasy Fix again: Tiff is back. She'll be there Sunday for the live show.
The worst advice I have given all year on Fantasy Fix Live was telling a caller to consider benching Steve Smith Sunday with Vinny Testaverde likely to start.
I had visions of the last Vinny's last sudden relief start, his first outing for the Jets in 2005. He could barely handle the center-snap exchange. He didn't throw a touchdown in his first five appearances that year.
But Vinny looked solid and Smith was enjoying a fine day even before his 65-yard score to cap the afternoon. Smith has been feast or famine this year, but he's on pace for over 1,300 yards and 16 scores.
The worst advice I have given all year on Fantasy Fix Live was telling a caller to consider benching Steve Smith Sunday with Vinny Testaverde likely to start.
I had visions of the last Vinny's last sudden relief start, his first outing for the Jets in 2005. He could barely handle the center-snap exchange. He didn't throw a touchdown in his first five appearances that year.
But Vinny looked solid and Smith was enjoying a fine day even before his 65-yard score to cap the afternoon. Smith has been feast or famine this year, but he's on pace for over 1,300 yards and 16 scores.
It is with great pleasure that Colbert led the Panthers in receiving Sunday with four catches and 74 yards, sadly his highest output in 42 games. 42! Jeez, maybe the Panthers have been too patient with him. Cobert was Carolina's best deep threat Sunday, catching a 43-yard pass (on Matt Moore's first NFL snap!), a 19-yarder, and he drew an illegal contact penalty on a long touchdown try.
Anyhow, just wanted to get this up for posterity. Something tells me Colbert won't have 42 more games if he doesn't crack 70 yards again soon.
I don't edit much out of The Morning After (a consistent problem for me), but one item I didn't get to was the imbalanced offensive play count from many games yesterday.
As a Jerricho Cotchery owner, it was frustrating to watch the Jets run a grand total of four plays in the third quarter. You can't score if you aren't on the field, and that is often an overlooked factor in someone's lame afternoon, especially wide receivers and running backs. Cotchery and the Jets made up for it in other quarters, but let's look at some teams that stayed on the field Sunday. Any teams under 50 plays is struggling.
There is never a good time for a quarterback to have elbow surgery, but Jake Delhomme and the Panthers exhausted all options before deciding to end Delhomme's season today. You know it kills Delhomme for his season to end, and one wonders what type of team this will be when he returns. It probably won't be his team.
The Panthers were handed a game Sunday, and aren't as good as their 3-2 record indicates. Playing in the mediocre NFC South will help, but John Fox and GM Marty Hurney aren't certain to be back next year.
David Carr will get his second chance in the NFL to be The Man. The Panthers have failed to develop any young alternatives to Delhomme, so a strong season by Carr would allow Carolina to return with Carr and Delhomme next year. Carr is off to a rough start.
Delhomme will be 33 entering next season and his status as the team's franchise quarterback is tenuous at best. Elbow surgeries threaten a quarterback's meal ticket and there's no guarantee he comes back the same player. Joe Montana never fully recovered from a similar procedure. At best, Delhomme will have to compete for his job next year.
As I suspected, a lot of the "minor" injuries endured Sunday by skill players are going to have uncertain recovery timelines.
So far, Brian Westbrook, Jake Delhomme, Brandon Jackson, Deshawn Wynn, Calvin Johnson, Carnell Williams, and Hines Ward have all received notice that their injuries won't require surgery.
Westbrook doesn't have any broken ribs, and Ward appears to have avoided a serious injury. Delhomme and Johnson will probably be among a large group of players whose status won't be decided until late in the week. It's annoying, but there is a bright side. My boss Rick says injuries are good for traffic.
Got a chance to watch the Shortcuts version of Houston-Carolina this morning. A couple thoughts from the game.
DeAngelo Williams plays more when the team is behind - Williams had ten looks (targets +touches) in the second half, while DeShaun Foster had five. Foster's second lost fumble in as many weeks won't help him stay on the field. Maybe Williams will be a bigger factor when they head to Atlanta this week.
Houston's line plays better - The Texans were stuffed in Week 1 against Kansas City, but Ahman Green had nice holes to run through. If it was a closer game, Green would have put up big totals. Houston's defensive line, especially Amobi Okoye, also had a big game. This group is for real.
Let's look back at my keys for Thursday night and see if we learned anything
Clinton Portis - Redskins Insider says Portis got his wish by sitting out the game. It's not a huge concern on it's own, but this is different than LT2 or Westbrook sitting out. They have practiced more than five times all camp and aren't coming off multiple surgeries.
Tennessee skill players - In a surprise, the Titans played their starters into the second half. And LenDale White was one of those starters, playing well, and delivering an awesome block to spring Vince Young for a touchdown. A committee looks likely early, with White the lead back.
Brandon Jones started over Roydell Williams and caught a touchdown pass. Jeff Fisher has been playing games with this spot, but Jones now appears likely to get the call in Week 1. Wait to see how it shakes out, but hold on to Jones.
If this ends up as as bad as it sounds, L.J. Smith may not be draftable in fantasy leagues this year.
* Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes are neck and neck for the Oakland starting job. Rhodes will miss the first four games of the season, but we're almost certainly looking at a committee after that.
* If I've learned one thing in the last month, it's that Keary Colbert will never die. Two Carolina newspapers report today that he's passing Drew Carter. Sure, it's Dwayne Jarrett's job eventually. But Colbert's re-emergence makes the whole trio worth avoiding.
* I usually dismiss strength-of-schedule as boderline irrelevent, but FootballOutsiders has created a highly useful article about it.
* Jason Wood asks a good question: Why is Steve Smith the consensus #1 WR? (I think the top-six are virtually interchangeable and Smith's rise is largely due to our desire for consensus.)
2004 was a good year. It was my first full season covering football full-time for Rotoworld. I was able to pay my rent on time ten times out of 12. And led by surprising efforts from rookie receivers Michael Clayton and Keary Colbert, my dynasty league team overachieved and I looked to have a great foundation of young receivers to build around.
Seems like a while ago. Clayton and Colbert have been in hiding for the subsequent two years, totaling 1,066 yards in four combined seasons since. Clayton is fighting for his starting job with Maurice Stovall in Tampa (glad I drafted him too), while Colbert was given up for dead after Dwayne Jarrett was drafted in April and Drew Carter took over the starting job. I'm a patient sort, but I gave up my roster spot for Colbert this offseason.
That's why I was very surprised to see Colbert began training as a starter. With Dwayne Jarrett behind him, it probably will be a temporary placement. But Colbert is relevent again, if only for a week. And for the owners that are hoping for a Drew Carter breakout season: It's probably not going to happen
August is a month for the football players on the fringes. While LaDainian Tomlinson mostly rests, undrafted players fight for spots on the practice squad. Declining veterans try to hold on to their roster spots. And players on the cusp on stardom battle each other for playing time. That’s when fantasy leaguers should start paying attention.
Over the next few weeks, we'll count down the top 50 position battles to watch during training camp. We try not to get carried away with preseason game results, rather the depth chart adjustments that coaches make. Players usually earn snaps in practice, and they solidify them in the preseason.
Evan Silva will update all the battles in detail throughout a weekly training camp column. This series should help you know where to look.
The beginning of the countdown will be for the true fantasy junkies that like to know every starter. Just barely missing the list were the battles for the starting tight end job in Arizona (Leonard Pope vs. field) and Buffalo (Bubba Kevin Everett vs. Robert Royal). The winners there just aren't likely to matter.
No. 50. Panthers TE: Jeff King vs. Michael Gaines
The winner of this battle isn't going to get drafted in fantasy leagues, but don't dismiss their chances for relevance entirely. The Panthers offense under Dan Henning required blocking from their tight ends and got it in spades from recently retired tight end Kris Mangum.
But Henning was fired and the new coordinator Jeff Davidson comes from the New England school of spreading the wealth. Davidson has been a tight ends coach in the past (for Ben Coates) and helped Kellen Winslow to an excellent season in Cleveland last year.
Davidson doesn't have that kind of talent to work with in Carolina. Gaines is more of a Daniel Graham-type at best, a blocker first. He's 280 pounds. King has a chance to catch some passes, though, if he can earn enough playing time. The Rock Hill Herald thinks he may start. He has decent hands and is someone to watch in deep dynasty leagues if he can win this battle.
Busy editing the magazine today, a refrain that may be too common around here over the next two weeks. So let's go straight to the links. (Notice I'm using a * instead of bullet because the PFT Fantasy Mill doesn't like my html.
That leaves Ernest Wilford and Dennis Northcutt, with super sleeper Mike Walker waiting in the wings. Someone named Charles Sharon is also in the mix. The news is a concern for anyone interested in drafting a Jaguar receiver, especially Jones. Jack Del Rio is probably trying to motivate the group, but he knows it's a do-or-die season. Donovin Darius' release may be a wake up call. One note of caution: All we heard about last summer was about Wilford, and he was behind Reggie Williams once camp got going.
* As a depressed dynasty league owner of Eric Shelton the last two years, I'll attach myself to any sliver of good news possible. Perhaps the dismissal of Dan Henning will help, but I'm not convinced he was somehow in the doghouse by mistake.
If Shelton could help the Panthers win, he'd be playing. Perhaps a release and a reuniting with Bobby Petrino in Atlanta would help him. Kudos to David Warner, who wrote the piece over at AOL Fanhouse for educating the masses on all kinds of football this summer on his blog.
* Mike Tomlin pencils in his starters. It's surprising Anthony Smith and Bryant McFadden are on the bench, at least for now. Ike Taylor is safely out of the doghouse.
* Thursday was Vernand Morency day in the local Green Bay papers. My gut tells me Morency will split carries with Brandon Jackson at best, but these pieces suggest otherwise.
* Wanted to talk at length all week about Michael Felger's article on Randy Moss. First, it's a huge loss for Patriots fans now that Felger is no longer on staff at the Herald. Hopefully he continues to pen pieces like this when he has time. Second, this is such a great example of how different writers can get drastically different impressions from offseason practices. Peter King was gushing about Moss in Sports Illustrated. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but Felger has been right about an awful lot over the years.
For the record, I don't really care how well Randy Moss practices in June if he's not a "distraction." I just hope he has juice left in his legs on Sundays.
* Paul Zimmerman writes that Tom Brady was "furious" about his lack of receivers last offseason - off the record. Thanks to Florio's excellent new vice Poohbah Michael David Smith for catching this.
* Minicamp season is just about wrapping up. Some places with good coverage this weekend to check out...
David Carr choosing to sign with the Panthers is odd on the surface. If his primary goal was to be a starting quarterback again quickly, he could have waited out an opportunity in Miami or possibly Cleveland. But despite coach John Fox and GM Matt Hurney's claims to the contrary, perhaps Carr choose Carolina because he knows he does has a chance to start before long there.
The Carolina offense was poor last year, and much of Jake Delhomme's struggles were rightly blamed on a predictable game plan and weak offensive line. But Delhomme has been a streaky quarterback since he took over the starting job with the Panthers, capable of mind-numbing decisions that veterans shouldn't make. His yards-per-attempt fell 1.4 yards last year to 6.5. If that number doesn't move, Carr will be an option during the 2007 season. I have never trusted Delhomme fully as a consistent fantasy option, and this move only lowers his 2007 value. There will be better QB2s out there.
