July 09, 2008
While I'm pimping videos instead of writing new content here, take a peak at my Bills preview. One of the biggest things I wrestled with this offseason was how high to put Marshawn Lynch. With his legal problem behind him, he's clearly my seventh running back. But it was difficult to decide whether to put him ahead of Tom Brady and Randy Moss, or leave him at ninth overall.
I split the difference. He's ahead of Brady, behind Moss. I suspect this decision won't be a popular one. But I believe strongly in Mr. Lynch.
Elsewhere on the Bills, I suspect some owner in every league is going to get cute with James Hardy as a sleeper pick, but I don't see it. I wouldn't draft any rookie wideout in a 12-by-15 format. Lee Evans, on the other hand, is a nice post-hype candidate.
Finally, I do think there is a sleeper on this team: The Bills defense. I probably wouldn't draft them in most formats, but there are a lot of playmakers to go with a good-looking schedule. The cagey Dick Jauron will have them playing hard.
June 12, 2008
New Marshawn Lynch developments, including a dancing pedestrian and Lynch's previous interactions with the police. Apparently Lynch has been tossed from a few local bars for ordering soda, then pouring ihis own liquor into the glass. Thrifty.
The Arizona quarterback rotation could be coming back. (Although I doubt it). The Cardinals are yet another team done with OTAs this week.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: BYOL" »
June 11, 2008
Hard to believe, but a lot of teams are wrapping up their OTA/minicamp season with mandatory work this week.
Some relative bombshells (for June) to come out in a two hour span.
The problems with success, Part I: Plaxico Burress is refusing to work until he gets a new deal. A training camp holdout sounds possible, although we wouldn't get overly concerned.
Former Pro Bowler LeCharles Bentley asks for and receives his release because he doesn't like being a reserve after being hurt for two years. What does he expect? Cleveland's offensive line still has plenty of depth.
Continue reading "Drama Day at minicamps" »
June 04, 2008
I've already had some people ask about the Marshawn Lynch case, so let's discuss it here. First of all, there is always some discomfort discussing the fantasy football impact of something as serious as a hit-and-run. But if it affects Lynch, a top-eight pick in our current rankings, we can't ignore the implications for too long.
First thing to mention: Lynch has not been charged. Today we learned a couple key points, though: Lynch's SUV was found at his house after the accident. And there is a maximum of a one year penalty in jail for leaving the scene of an accident in Buffalo. This is a Class A misdemeanor.
Continue reading "The Marshawn Lynch case" »
May 20, 2008
This week's Fix looks at guys with the opportunity to bounce back this season. I'm not necessarily saying that they will, just that they are set up with excellent chances.
I know the one minute video is tough to bear (especially in these dark non-Tiffany summer days), so my list from the video is after the jump
Continue reading "Four Guys with the chance to bounce back" »
April 09, 2008
Bills fans love their Terrence McGee and they will defend him with great gusto and research.
No longer will I call Terrence McGee one of the worst number one cornerbacks and expect not to hear about it.
The Bills fans are among the most intelligent and rabid in the league (kissing up, I know), and I will admit McGee had a bounceback 2007 season. But part of the reason his numbers were up (tackles, passes defensed) is that teams picked on him after a miserable 2006. McGee's highly up and down career can be debated, but I still say they need to add a premier cornerback.
One thing can't be debated: Do not rattle the Bills fan's cage, even in April.
It took part of the afternoon to locate James N. but we found him to take the Bills pick. Here goes.
With the 11th pick in the draft The Buffalo Bills select Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
I know that it might make the most sense for the Bills to go with a WR here, but with a defense desperately lacking playmakers, and a WR class with no real standouts, I think DRC will be able to step in right away and make a difference. He's big and strong and can run with any receiver in the league.....and with a pass defense that dipped to 29th in the league against the pass after the loss of Nate Clements I think this is a far more glaring need.
Continue reading "Pancake Blocks Mock Draft: Pick No. 11" »
March 31, 2008
I have broken ground on our magazine, meaning this is the time of year to put together my first rough rankings for 2008. The Draft and offseason activities will change things, but I like getting a skeleton list up early to build off.
Each year, a handful of players at each position are the most difficult to rank. The kind that could be in the top ten or out of the top-25. I'm going to profile these players occasionally here and ask for your opinion. The first player we'll look at is Lee Evans.
Continue reading "Tough to Rank: Lee Evans" »
March 12, 2008
The blog has been quiet lately as I've helped out on our baseball video previews and started to get ready for a Japan trip to see the in-laws and watch some Red Sox International. Then this place will really get quiet, although the timing feels right as we head into the Donnie Nickey/Dan Klecko/Danny Clark phase of free agency. Here are a couple loose thoughts on the events of the past few days ...
The Texans could be posturing or they could really be hesitant to draft a first-round running back. Considering their system, I'm betting the latter. Chris Taylor sounds like a nice deep dynasty league pickup.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Hackett, Boldin, and Darling" »
November 29, 2007
The rankings were only posted a few hours ago, but news has already changed some things. Anthony Thomas looks as good as out, so Fred Jackson will be moved up to No. 36 at running back. I can't imagine using him unless truly desperate because he'll split work with Dwayne Wright.
Marc Bulger is out. Gus Frerotte will be placed between Vince Young and Philip Rivers. I'd hold on to Bulger for the playoffs because he gets the Bengals next week.
I knocked Plaxico Burress down a few pegs, and he'll go even further if practice reports continue to be negative.
November 27, 2007
If you are in position to make the fantasy playoffs, you shouldn't be desperate enough to need Patrick Cobbs or Fred Jackson.
Cobbs carried the load for Miami last night when Jesse Chatman and Ricky Williams were hurt, and has a great matchup on paper next week against the Jets. And while Cobbs could be worth a flier in the deepest of leagues, the most likely outcome in Miami is that Williams, Chatman, or both will be back in the lineup by Sunday.
I feel the same way about the Buffalo situation. If Anthony Thomas is out, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Wright will probably split carries against the Redskins. That's not worth investing a roster spot in. Just wait for Thomas or Marshawn Lynch to return and roll with what you have.
November 14, 2007
It doesn't sound good so far for Marshawn Lynch owners. With a Sunday night game, you should look for other options. And I don't mean Anthony Thomas.
It looks like Ricky will probably remain a Dolphin. It's amazing that Ricky has lasted long enough to see three coaching staffs (Dave Wannstedt, Nick Saban, Cam Cameron) and three decision makers in the front office (Rick Spielman, Saban, Randy Mueller - his old New Orleans GM).
It's not a great sign when Williams becomes one of the most stable parts of your organization.
October 24, 2007
Dick Jauron quietly seemed to adjust Trent Edwards' status as the team's starting quarterback from temporary to permanent this week. The Buffalo News calls it a foregone conclusion.
I watched the Bills game against the Ravens and mostly agree with FootballOutsiders' gushing about the kid. When he makes a mistake, it tends to be a massive one. But otherwise his mastery of the two-minute offense and good decision-making is impressive. He also stretched the field in this game.
Don't forget for a second how hard it is to be a rookie quarterback. Even Tom Brady was very limited in his first season as a starter, and that was his second year. Payton Manning had a 6.5 YPA and a negative TD:INT ratio. Eli Manning and Alex Smith could barely walk and talk at the same time.
Edwards may or may not be much better than J.P. Losman right now, but he definitely will be next year.
October 17, 2007
Once upon a time, the NFL was awash in Tulane quarterbacks (my alma matter). Shaun King led the Bucs to the NFC Championship, while Patrick Ramsey and J.P. Losman arrived as first-round picks set to be "franchise" quarterbacks.
Now Ramsey is a backup in Denver, King is on ESPN, and Losman has been displaced in Buffalo.
The Bills are saying the move isn't permanent, and have alluded to Losman not being 100% (although he's healthy enough to play). I suspect they are covering their bases. Losman had quite a reputation for being a locker room divider in college, and perhaps they are trying to prevent him from going in the tank. That is irresponsible speculation, but I still suspect that Edwards will have to struggle badly to lose the starting gig. And that Losman won't be a Buffalo Bill in 2008.
While Edwards has great long-term potential, I don't think this moves bodes well for a full Lee Evans recovery in 2007.
October 08, 2007
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think the Bills have a good chance to win this game tonight. Dick Jauron is easy to make fun of, but his Bills teams have done one thing consistently: play their guts out. Personnel issues prevent them from being a playoff contender, but this is their Super Bowl. It's just another game for the Cowboys.
Dallas sleptwalked through their first half against the Rams at home last week, and was very lucky to have a lead at halftime. The Cowboys are a good team, but they aren't so good that they can't get beat on the road by a team with everything to play for.
I'm really excited to watch Trent Edwards after hearing so much about his poised start last week. Buffalo has needed a good quarterback for as long as I can remember. It's early, but I say Edwards makes a name for himself tonight.
Bills 24, Cowboys 23
Continue reading "Monday Night Prediction" »
October 04, 2007
Wish I could be posting here more often, but other responsibilities keep interfering.
***
I was scrolling through our Workload Report and noticed a surprising name atop the offensive percentage list for the season: Marshawn Lynch
Continue reading "Lynch Working Hard" »
September 24, 2007
J.P. Losman's knee injury couldn't have come at a worse time for the fourth-year QB. Coming off two of the worst starts of his career (which is saying a lot), Losman's status as the future of the Bills franchise was already being called into question. His play on the field was poor, but throwing his coaches under the bus was worse. Losman accepted very little blame for his play, and the pressers brought back memories of his immature days at Tulane University when "his" offense was divided into warring factions.
Losman now has to watch third-round pick Trent Edwards get an extended audition as the next Bills quarterback of the future. Edwards struggled against the Patriots like any rookie would, but perhaps he can show something against some questionable defenses the next two weeks (Jets, Cowboys). A few decent outings would go a long way towards helping the front office to decide late in the season that getting Edwards experience is the best way to move forward. And if Edwards doesn't work out, some message board posters are already asking the inevitable question in Buffalo: Who will be the first pick in the draft?.
September 23, 2007
Remember all that buy-low talk about Lee Evans? Well, now he's really low. Like maybe off the waiver wire. Evans was held to a seven-yard catch Sunday, and J.P. Losman may miss a few more weeks. Rookie Trent Edwards is the likely starter.
Reader John Williams asks:With Losman's injury sidelining him for some time, is it time to cut Lee Evans for a D. Bowe or Roddy White off the waiver wire?
I would not cut Evans in any league. Definitely not for those two. Bench Evans of course, but he's still a top-20 receiver waiting to happen for the second half of the season. Think long-term. Heck, I guess I still would buy low in a trade if I got Evans at rock bottom prices. Offer your WR6 or TE2 for him and see if Evans' owners jumps.
September 12, 2007
Every NFL week is full of surprises; the ones early in the year just get more attention. Here's a quick list of players I'm watching closely this week.
1. Marshawn Lynch - After watching the Shortcuts of this game, I'm pretty sure he's for real. You can't teach breaking tackles. A good game against Pittsburgh would solidify his RB2 status.
2. Chris Brown - The Titans offensive line was fierce. Let's see if they can blow up the Colts.
3. Jaguars runners - Their offensive line got pushed around. Look for a better effort against the Falcons.
4. Saints offense - I know it was only one game. But I still want to see what they do against the Bucs.
Continue reading "Surprises" »
September 07, 2007
One of the hardest decisions I make each week is what two games to watch on Sunday at 1PM. Poor me, I know. I want to see every game, but you wind up seeing none if you flip between 5. I’m considering Denver/Buffalo for one of the slots because I’m very interested to see Marshawn Lynch and basically the entire Broncos offense. Let’s look at the players from both teams.
Broncos
QB1: Jay Cutler: Solid Play - This is a good week to use Cutler. I know they are a zone team, but Buffalo has one of the weakest cornerback tandems in football now that Nate Clements is gone.
RB1: Travis Henry - Must Start - Buffalo struggled to stop the run last year, and didn’t appear to solve their interior line problems in the offseason. If Denver’s line is back in form, Henry should have a big game.
RB2: Selvin Young – Must Sit - There’s no guarantee yet he’s the backup, but he should be. I’m praying Young turns into an asset for my NFFC team, so I’ll be watching closely.
WR1: Javon Walker – Must Start - Walker hasn’t exactly had a consistent career, but modest gains from his post-ACL campaign in 2006 will make him a WR1. This should be a great matchup for him.
Continue reading "Broncos vs. Bills" »
August 28, 2007
J.P. Losman has the benefit of a Tulane education, but he still has a confusing way of getting his point across.
We talked about it with Steve (Fairchild) in practice the other day. We said, 'We're better than we thought we were going to be, but we're not as far along as we thought we would be.' So it's kind of contrasting right now. We're not as sharp as we want to be, but we are better than we thought we could be. That is a dangerous thing, so we do need our coaches to stay on us and harp on us all the time to not let us slack and players need to own up and take that responsibility on themselves as well.
Continue reading "Bills concerned about offense?" »
July 28, 2007
Here's one reason why Marshawn Lynch is an intriguing player, but not a player you want to draft in the top-30 picks. Dick Jauron insistently says the Bills will run a committee this season. Here's a quote from Friday.
"Regardless of who the number one (back) is we do still intend to run the ball by committee. We think it's better for our team over the long haul," said Jauron. "As we get good enough to win consistently and fight our way hopefully into a playoff spot, you want to be healthy at that point in the year. A guy that gets overburdened carrying the ball constantly at that position will take so many more shots. We'd like to run it by committee and the guy that's the lead (back) will have to earn the right to be the lead."
Jauron has said variations of this quote all offseason, but the media hasn't really listened. I haven't listened, assuming Lynch will rise. Fantasy Nation hasn't listened, taking Lynch as a late second running back.
Lynch still has to prove he can be a productive pro (unlike the last highly drafted Cal runner, J.J. Arrington), and he's fighting an uphill battle on a below-average offense. The one great thing that vaulted him past Adrian Peterson was that he was guaranteed big carries.
Now I understand Jauron is partly engaging in coachspeak. He doesn't want to put pressure on the rookie. Like Tony Dungy with Joseph Addai with the Colts last year, though, I'm beginning to think it's not all coachspeak. Sharing the ball makes sense, especially when you have a first-year runner.
I like Marshawn Lynch's skill set, but he could be a better pro this year than fantasy option. Rookie backs usually get drafted too early. Maybe we should start listening to Dick Jauron.
July 26, 2007
We have our first position battle update. (I know I'm a huge football dork because I was really excited to start reading the first practice reports. The offseason is necessary, but I'm glad its over.)
Anthony Thomas has started training camp taking most of the first-team reps with Marshawn Lynch absent. Its not a huge surprise that he'll start with a head start over rookie Dwayne Wright, but we know where they stand now. Wright will try to impress in the preseason, but he's not worth drafting until he passes the A-Train.
For those interested, we'll post the rest of the final 16 top position battles in a column Thursday.
Update:And by Thursday, I mean Friday.
July 19, 2007
# 32. Bills Backup Running Back – Anthony Thomas vs. Dwayne Wright
Rookie Marshawn Lynch should win the starting job, leaving last year’s surprisingly serviceable backup Anthony Thomas fighting fourth-round pick Dwayne Wright for handcuff duties. Wright could be a short-yardage back in time.
The winner of this battle is worth drafting in deeper leagues. Marshawn Lynch looks great on paper, but we won’t know for sure until September Sundays. Heck, Bills.com isn’t convinced yet that Dick Jauron won’t go committee.
All that said, I wouldn’t touch A-Train in drafts until we know the score. Wait for a clear handcuff to Lynch to emerge in August.
***
* If Daunte Culpepper had an agent (other than Gandhi), he'd tell his client that Tampa would be a great fit. If Gruden can't scare some fundamentals into Culpepper, I'm not sure who could. And its not like Jeff Garcia is a long-term option.
Dynasty league owners of Culpepper should be hoping for this match.
* Looks like another fun commute tonight. Thanks for stopping by today.
# 36. Bills second receiver: Peerless Price vs. Roscoe Parrish vs. Josh Reed
The always-informative Buffalobills.com ran an article posing the question, “Who will pull attention off Lee Evans?”
While the article is optimistic that the second season in Steve Fairchild’s offense will make a big difference, the personnel around Evans is largely the same. Going into the offseason, I thought upgrading the receiver talent would be a priority. It didn’t happen.
Peerless Price (49 catches), Josh Reed (34 catches), and Roscoe Parrish (23 catches) didn’t make a fantasy impact last season. Reed and Price have shown what they can do over the last few years. Its not going to help your team. Parrish has big-play ability, but is likely too small to start. Buffalo hasn't shown any willingness to replace Price despite his microscopic 8.2 yards-per-catch average last season.
There just isn’t any reason to believe one of these players will emerge, and there aren’t any sleeper receivers in hiding on the Buffalo roster. Its could mean some rough afternoons for J.P. Losman and Evans.
March 08, 2007
The Ravens never wanted to keep Jamal Lewis in the first place. They offered him a backup's contract for one-year and $2 million. His deal with the Cleveland Browns isn't much better, at only $3.5 million for a season. That nicely straddles the line between starter and backup and makes it clear they don't view Lewis as a long-term solution. That's a good thing.
Lewis' 2,000-yard season in 2003 was his finest hour, but also his year of reckoning. He hasn't been truly healthy since earning 429 touches that season. Lewis is a 27-year-old former superstar trapped in a 33-year-old's body. Problem is, he doesn't see it that way.
Continue reading "The Future for McGahee and Lewis" »
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