Flip back a couple posts and you'll see what happens when someone gets on Pancake Blocks at 1:12AM to blog. Chris Wesseling asked if I predicted Davone Bess would lead the NFL in catches after swiping some of LenDale White's patron. No, Wess. It was just a Bold Prediction.

Here's another, this time at 5:38AM:

Matt Schaub will finish 2009 as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback.

Here's why:

1. The Texans are going to throw a ton this season. Houston's pass attempts have skyrocketed annually in Gary Kubiak's three seasons (2006 - 23rd in NFL, 2007 - 11th, 2008 - 4th). Kubiak built his team to throw the football. All five starting offensive linemen are highly athletic, and only one weighs over 320 pounds (LG Chester Pitts - 321). Every player at every non-QB skill position can catch, and the Texans boast one of the deepest receiver groups in the league.

2. He's almost there already. Schaub finished 2008 seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game. This includes Week 9 at Minnesota, when Schaub was pulled at halftime with a knee sprain. His 8.0 yards-per-attempt average -- an indicator of aggressiveness and potency in the vertical passing game -- tied for second in the NFL with Drew Brees. Schaub's 66.1 completion rate was bested by only Chad Pennington, Kurt Warner, and Peyton Manning. Think about it for a minute. High completion rate + large YPA = deadly combination.

3. Schaub's more likely to stay healthy this year. Naturally, a guy gets labeled "fragile" when injuries cost him 10 games in two seasons. But the Texans return all five starting linemen and are convinced they've found an answer at left tackle in 2008 first-round pick Duane Brown, whose play improved down the stretch of his up-and-down rookie year and shed 20 pounds this offseason to improve his feet and mobility in pass protection. Schaub had journeyman Ephraim Salaam on his blind side for all of 2007. Opposing defensive coordinators also suddenly must game plan to stop Steve Slaton, who totaled 1,659 yards as a rookie, rather than put all their effort into getting hits on Schaub.

Continue reading "Another Bold Prediction: Schaub the QB1" »

Posted by Evan Silva at 05:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (44)

If I was a bettor forced to wager on the NFL's 2009 receptions leader, I'd put money on Andre Johnson, Eddie Royal, Wes Welker, Jason Witten, Reggie Wayne, and even Chiefs second-stringer Dwayne Bowe all before any Miami Dolphins wide receiver. But it's time to go out on a limb. It's time for a truly Bold Prediction:

Davone Bess will lead the league in receptions this season.

Let's rehash.

Entering camp, Ted Ginn was one of my favorite WR3 targets when almost all signs pointed to Chad Henne replacing Chad Pennington by November. I believed Ginn could offer value because some had attached a "bust" or "disappointment" label to the the former No. 9 overall pick, despite a very promising start to his NFL career. Henne has the stronger arm and could pepper Ginn with intermediate-to-vertical targets. No longer inhibited by Pennington's dink-and-dunk tactics, Ginn would capitalize on his deep threat potential and give Miami just its second 1,000-yard receiver since the Jimmy Johnson era (2005, Chris Chambers is the other).

Now, I'm not so sure.

Henne has failed to narrow the gap during two-a-days after a hot spring and Pennington will enter Week 1 the undisputed starter. Perhaps an injury or Miami's tough on-paper schedule will get him benched eventually, but none of that can be reasonably predicted.

Background on Davone Bess

Continue reading "Davone Bess: 2009 PPR Hero" »

Posted by Evan Silva at 01:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (18)