Ray Rice's Average Draft Position is rising rapidly, as it should be. The second-year running back is emerging as the centerpiece of Baltimore's offense. Rice's current ADP rests at 66.7, or the late seventh round in 10-team drafts (mid-sixth in 12-team formats). He's still a value there. Let's examine why:
1. Rice is the Ravens' clear-cut starter. Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain split the starts last season, but Rice quietly overtook them at May minicamps and hasn't looked back. He's started both of Baltimore's first two preseason games. In the second, Rice was the only back to play with the first-team offense. McClain entered with the Troy Smith-led second unit. McGahee didn't play until the second half. With a starting job locked up and perhaps the best hands on the team after Derrick Mason (Rice finished third on the Ravens in receptions per game last year), he has the makings of an every-down back.
2. The Ravens will run like crazy. It seems natural for coordinator Cam Cameron to give Joe Flacco "more freedom" in his second year. But Cameron's track record says it won't happen. Cam's recent offenses have ranked 1st (2008), 2nd ('06), 12th ('05), and 4th ('04) in the league in rush attempts. His 2007 Dolphins were 27th, but only because they were horrible and finished 1-15. Anyways, Ronnie Brown led the NFL in yards from scrimmage before his Week 7 ACL tear that year. The Ravens' best talent also isn't at receiver or tight end. Last season's most run-heavy NFL team won't change concepts. That means more opportunities for their new starter.
Subscribers of our draft guide will notice that Derrick Mason remains the rankings. This isn't because we're lazy; it's because Mason isn't retired yet. Based on everything we've heard, I don't think he will.
Granted, there is a fair bit of speculation going on here. But people close to the situation believe there is a good chance he'll play. It's also the middle of July. We anticipate getting an update about his visit with Ravens coach John Harbaugh fairly soon. If he's still not back on the field early in camp, we'll adjust accordingly.
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Mark Clayton stands to benefit the most if Mason follows through and retires. We ranked Clayton as the WR47 before the Mason news. This is higher than his ADP in most places, even after the news.
I remember being a little surprised he came out that optimistic, but someone had to catch Joe Flacco's passes. I was a big fan of Clayton before and after his rookie year, but he's proven spotty at best since then.
Last week I attempted to break down the Ravens backfield situation and came to the conclusion that folks may be going overboard on Ray Rice's redraft value. The local rags have been pumping Rice relentlessly, but the team never figured to abandon its multi-pronged attack.
In a revealing interview with CBSSports.com offensive coordinator Cam Cameron removed all suspense, declaring his backfield a true committee attack.
Eric Schneider foresees the Ravens getting the steal of the draft at No. 26 overall.
The Ravens do have a glaring need at center, and a very good one in Alex Mack of California is available. However, like most people say, this is a “once in a generation draft for centers.” I think the depth of centers available allows the Ravens to look at other options with their first pick.
There have been some rumors about the Ravens looking into acquiring Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals, and I think they should definitely try. However, I don’t see the Ravens sending all their draft picks for him, and the players recently mentioned as trade bait make no sense. Even if the Cardinals have no tight end, why do they need one? They made it to the Super Bowl without a TE, and I think they can make it back without one.
Michael Lombardi has been all over the trade winds blowing out of Cleveland the past couple of days. He stated Sunday that the Browns have No. 1 picks on the table for both Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards and followed up Monday with the revelation that the team is holding out for more than first-round pick for Edwards. So where might the drop-plagued playmaker wind up?
Todd Heap was one of the sneaky, spectacular fantasy busts of 2008. Often unavailable during his career, Heap had always been productive when he played. Until last year.
It wasn't like Heap occasionally showed flashes of his old self. His high yardage mark for the year was 58, topping 40 yards only three times. Heap was the replacement level tight end sitting atop your waiver wire. He was David Martin.
Baltimore's big three free agents are linebackers Bart Scott, Ray Lewis, and guard/center Jason Brown. Scott figured to be the best value of the three, and he appears to be the one most likely to re-sign.
The Baltimore Sun reports that Scott is only $400,000-$700,000 apart with Baltimore in contract negotiations. That tells me he's unlikely to fly the coop.
Brown, on the other hand, is reportedly far apart in discussions. Brown is my top offensive lineman available, and one of the top-five at any position. It's rare to see difference making offensive lineman available at any position, and he has versaitility. Any team serious about the running game will want him. Washington, Miami, St. Louis, and Kansas City have been mentioned as suitors for Brown.
If Scott re-signs today, one has to wonder if Ray Lewis will start taking free agent trips this weekend. Even if he doesn't sign elsewhere, visiting a team like the Jets would increase Lewis' leverage.
(And yes, I'm blogging some non-fantasy free agency material at NBC, which is confusing in the short run. We'll simplify eventually, but limited for now.)
If the Ravens are actually close to a deal with Bart Scott, what does that mean for Ray Lewis’ future? (If Scott gets to the open market, I bet he winds up with the Jets.)
What Herm Edwards/Carl Peterson has wrought: overpaid veteran Chiefs Patrick Surtain, Donnie Edwards, and Damon Huard are released.
What Herm Edwards has wrought, part II: The Nuge is leaving! (Herm and Terry Bradway, in perhaps their signature move, believed they were only a kicker away from a title in 2005 and took Mike Nugent in the second round of the draft. Three mediocre seasons followed by an injury-filled 2008 followed.
(Incidentally, the same article points out that the Jets have $27 million in cap room, not $37 million. They still have plenty.)
Shaun Rogers may be unhappy with Eric Mangini (already?), but he’s not going anywhere. The Browns aren’t going to take a cap hit to get rid of their best player. Look for Mangini to do some mend-fencing.
Fred Taylor is continuing his tour of the AFC East. Taylor appears comfortable with being a role player moving forward, which should keep his career going at least another year. I still don't see him as a great fit on Buffalo or New England, but stranger things have happened.
The Dolphins could be the top suitor for Ravens C/G Jason Brown, who might be the best offensive lineman available at any position.
My attention the last few days has been on the NFL Scouting Combine, but I’m not a college football guy. I need a few more days of studying to pretend I know what I’m talking about with these kids, and Mr. Silva has the event covered well in the news. Let’s see what’s gone on this weekend with the guys who are already pro.
The more we hear, the more it sounds like Torry Holt will just get out-right released by the Rams. They could delay the decision until mid-March, but it could be tough for the Rams to get any trade compensation for him. Teams may as well wait for the Rams to kill his contract first.
Jim Mora has had enough of the Michael Vick Experience, thank you very much.
Why is releasing Edgerrin James such a hard decision for the Cardinals? They can replace him in the draft at a fraction of the price, and then some.
Jerry Jones’ latest statements hinted that Terrell Owens may not be released after all. With nearly every national football writer predicting the opposite, the star-crossed Cowboys owner/GM may just be trying to keep the media wolves at bay.
Owens has a roster bonus due in June, so the Cowboys could make sure he’s on his best behavior before making a final decision. What’s clear is that a faction in Dallas, reportedly led by Stephen Jones and Jason Garrett, does not love them some T.O. Let’s say, for the sake of February chatter, that this faction wins out and Owens is released.
Where would Owens go? More importantly, who would be desperate and crazy enough to want Owens?
With a hearty assist to the geniuses at Beckett’s publications, here’s Rotoworld’s best guess for potential Owens landing spots.
1. Raiders: Owens will go where he’s paid the most – period. And Al Davis showed with Javon Walker that he’s not afraid to overspend to get JaMarcus Russell some help. Davis also isn’t the type of owner to worry about chemistry much.
2. Ravens: They have a huge need at the position and have shown prior interest. They also have a veteran locker room that could handle Owens. The trickiest part of the equation here might be the salary cap. Baltimore also wants to find room for Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Bart Scott.
3. Redskins: The Fighting Cerratos don’t really have the cap room, but they have to be near the top of the list of teams crazy enough to do it. Dan Snyder also invested three picks at receiver in the 2008 draft, with initially poor results. Owens would fix the position quickly and amp up Washington’s NFC East rivalries.
NFL Network’s Steve Wyche has sources that say T.J. Houshmandzadeh is as good as gone in Cincy. Despite Mike Lombardi’s evaluation, I’d take him over Antonio Bryant and any other free agent receiver. The Titans, Bucs (If Bryant leaves), and Eagles were mentioned by Wyche as possible landing spots. Those all make sense, but the Eagles may feel comfortable with DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and Jason Avant now. The Titans have a big receiver need and were reportedly willing to give up a high pick for Torry Holt last year. Housh would be perfect there.
Off the top of my head, here’s how I’d rank possible landing spots, not including Cincinnati.
As I watched the AFC Championship game, I wrote a note to myself in the third quarter to revisit in the blog later: How much has Willis McGahee helped his market value in the playoffs?
He certainly ran with a burst we didn't see most of the season; like the '07 workmanlike McGahee. He still doesn't press the hole enough, but he wasn't bad.
Then his scary neck injury happened, although it sounds like that won't be a long-term problem. And now the Baltimore Sun reports that McGahee would count $11 million against the cap in 2009, even if released.
Well, then. Despite a lot of reporting from Mike Preston this season that McGahee would likely be a goner in the offseason, he's not going anywhere - if that number is true. The figure seems oddly high based on what we know of McGahee's contract, but we probably don't know everything and will have to trust the reporting. If the number is right, McGahee's market value doesn't matter. Baltimore will try to motivate him to get in better shape and put him back into the mix in 2009. Maybe the Ravens backfield can defend their crown as most frustrating backfield next season.
"We didn't start this journey to get to Tampa," Mike Tomlin said while accepting the Lamar Hunt trophy for the AFC Championship.
"We got some business waiting on us there. We'll do like we always do. We'll get in the lab and go to work."
And with that, the long build-up to Super Bowl XLIII begins. The Whisenhunt Revenge Tour!
Ravens-Steelers III was a bloodbath, like you'd expect. The hits were vicious; the game dragging on like an ALCS Yankees/Red Sox game with both teams not giving an inch. Baltimore kept it close despite getting outplayed, but the difference at quarterback proved too great. The Ravens played Pittsburgh so tight in all three games, but there can be no doubt who the better team was. All the mojo in the world couldn't beat Pittsburgh's historic defense at home with a rookie quarterback.
This blog will get very Super Bowl-centric over the next week as I ready for my trip to Tampa. Thanks for stopping by.
Deion Sanders has been saying throughout the last few weeks that Donovan McNabb could care less about Eagles fans and probably still wants out after the season. This has riled up some people in Philadelphia, but it hardly seemed far-fetched. Given a chance to comment after Philly's win Sunday, McNabb essentially said that Sanders was on point. (Skip to 2:35 if interested).
"You know what Deion. Continue on with what you are saying. I'm having a ball."
McNabb is probably going to want a new contract after the season, and a Super Bowl trophy would be one hell of a negotiating tool. Even during the best of days , the McNabb Eagles have an edge to them. It's working.
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This is why outsiders don't like the Philly media. Phil Sheridan starts his column with this line: "The impossible suddenly looks probable."
Tear them down all year, then hand them the title with two very difficult games to go. Vegas currently lists Philly as 11-5 to win the title, which sounds about right. Pittsburgh is the favorite at 3-2. And I nailed three of the final four teams!
Eagles Nation is using their good fortune as a reason for some well-reasoned introspection.
Baltimore is turning into Denver East: confusing the hell out of fantasy owners on a weekly basis, but finding production no matter who they turn to. Baltimore's three-headed monster is ranked fourth as a team in rushing yards this season. The young offensive line is playing with a nasty edge. Against Houston, Willis McGahee got 26 touches despite Ray Rice starting and reports indicting McGahee wasn’t 100%.
There is no answer to this question ultimately. John Harbaugh says all three players will stay involved and the lead back may depend on the matchup. Rice is clearly the most explosive, while McGahee figures to be the steadiest. The problem is the schedule. Baltimore has all four NFC East teams and Pittsburgh left before the end of the fantasy season. Other than a Week 13 game against Cincy, all the Baltimore backs will be shaky plays.
Tony Kornheiser gets a lot wrong on these Monday Night games. The statement that galled me the most tonight was his statement that the Ravens defense isn't doing anything special, and that it's the Steelers offense that is to blame. While Pittsburgh has their share of problems, Baltimore's defense is back to being the best in the league.
I know they've only played the AFC North, but great defenses dominate inferior competition. That's what Baltimore has done in all three games.
I wrote in my MNF preview how impressed I was with Joe Flacco and how Willis McGahee has dominated the workload when healthy. Those trends have continued tonight. Baltimore is 20 minutes away from going 3-0 in the division.
Ben Roethlisberger's hand, which reportedly was swollen all week, is becoming a concern.
And of course the Steelers score 14 points in 15 seconds after I type up that last post. Will be fun watching to see how Joe Flacco responds now.
Between the column and the videos, every matchup is covered except two. Those two are below. I'll update the rankings in a while and then start pregaming for the debate.
Ravens @ Steelers
Baltimore is the most impressive defense in the NFL thus far. That could mean a long night for all Steelers. Since Rashard Mendenhall has failed to impress in practice, I'm not high on him proving RB2 value against Baltimore. Mewelde Moore will probably be very involved. ... Ben Roethlisberger is going to see a lot of blitzes and could get killed here. That will make it hard for Santonio Holmes to have time to get open deep.
It looks like we won't get to see how ready Steve Slaton is this weekend. ESPN says the Texans-Ravens is postponed, while the Houston Chronicle just says the game will definitely not take place at Reliant Stadium. An official announcement should come later Saturday, but get your Ravens and Texans our of your lineup.
Willis McGahee is probable for Sunday and the Ravens are only carrying two backs. That tells me they expect him to have a significant role. My gut says that Ray Rice and McGahee will split carries, so I don't want either one as a RB2 with Joe Flacco behind center.
Stay tuned on Ryan Grant's status. I'm getting some conflicting reports about whether he practiced Thursday. The AP said he didn't. We'll know soon enough.
After Troy Smith's ridiculously unlucky second consecutive no-show Thursday night, the Ravens starting quarterback job is still truly up in the air.
"Even if we planned to name a starter, we couldn't right now," coach John Harbaugh said. "We'll find out more about Kyle in the next couple of days. We don't know about Troy. We'll see what the next few days bring."
I can't remember a Week 1 starting job being truly up for grabs this close to Week 1 before? I'm not counting Arizona, in which the decision has likely been made. Joe Flacco didn't lead the Ravens to a point in the first half against the Falcons backups. I think the Ravens really don't want to throw him out there in the opener. If they are going to throw someone unprepared to the wolves, I still bet it's Smith.
It's been a crazy day for draft guide updates, but let's look at my other headlines to know from preseason Week 2.
1. After another nice preseason effort, Eddie Royal looks to be keeping that starting job for good. And it was interesting to see Andre Hall replace Selvin Young twice in the red zone. Vulture, anyone?
2. Rams lost two backup offensive linemen for the season. The starters were miserable protecting Marc Bulger again this week. I won't overreact to preseason efforts, but another game like this will be cause for conern.
3. Reggie Brown couldn't stay healthy for another game. He's at risk of losing some targets to DeSean Jackson, who continues to play well.
4. Kenton Keith was the fifth-string running back in Indy. He looks like a goner. Darius Walker didn't get a carry in Houston. I'm guessing the Texans Week 1 roster will include Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor and either Ahman Green or Marcel Shipp.
I took some notes while watching a few of the preseason games this weekend, and I thought you guys might want to take a look. I tried to clean them up for your edification. One more game's notes coming up here, then a full column on the weekend in fantasy in the Daily Dose coming shortly.
Ravens vs. Patriots
All the Baltimore quarterbacks struggled in the opener. Kyle Boller made some plays, but turned the ball over twice. Troy Smith could have been picked off twice and did not look composed whatsoever. He reportedly has followed up the game effort with two ugly practices. He will get to start next week. Joe Flacco doesn’t appear to have a chance to start Week 1. He threw only three passes. My takeaway here: Baltimore’s offensive line threatens to be terrible. The quarterbacks had no time. This could make them one of the worst offenses in the league, as usual. … Ray Rice is getting huge love form the Baltimore press, but struggled in his first appearance. It comes back to the line once again. I will move Rice up the depth charts following news of Willis McGahee’s injury. (More on that later).
This has nothing to do with anything, but I found it pretty amazing. I'm going to miss Jonathan Ogden. Thanks to Brett the intern for the heads up. Anything to break up the mind-numbing live Favre coverage on NFLN right now.
As if replacing Jonathan Ogden wasn't going to be hard enough, the Ravens have watched two tackles carted off the field in the span of a week. First Jared Gaither, now Adam Terry. Terry's injury looks like it could be serious, although it's too early to tell.
I like Baltimore's hard-nosed young line, but injuries like this, if they prove to be serious, can be devastating for shaky quarterbacks. Keep an eye on the situation, but this is another reason to be wary of Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and the rest of the Baltimore passing game.
I usually don't take note of training camp practice numbers; they can run together and it takes weeks to establish patterns. But it was hard to ignore Troy Smith's first morning at Ravens camp, where it is mostly just quarterbacks and rookies. In six red zone plays, Smith went 1-for-5 with three interceptions and a fumbled snap. And one of the interceptions was made by a secondary coach who was filling in for a player. Goo!
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Ravens Central ran a great piece detailing the top five toughest players on the team. Tackle Marshall Yanda somehow only came in fourth despite taser-taking ability that should be criminal. Turns out the young tackle took a bet that he could handle getting hit be a taser gun. He won $1,500 for asking to get tazed, bro. For three seconds. Three separate times. If that only gets you fourth-toughest on the Ravens, this team has a chance this season.
Hard to believe, but a lot of teams are wrapping up their OTA/minicamp season with mandatory work this week.
Some relative bombshells (for June) to come out in a two hour span.
The problems with success, Part I: Plaxico Burress is refusing to work until he gets a new deal. A training camp holdout sounds possible, although we wouldn't get overly concerned.
Former Pro Bowler LeCharles Bentley asks for and receives his release because he doesn't like being a reserve after being hurt for two years. What does he expect? Cleveland's offensive line still has plenty of depth.
Since I feel horribly guilty when making it a normal work day without posting something here ... here is a link and a video that took up my morning hours. (We'll get to the afternoon another time).
I will be following up on the Mock Draft results starting tomorrow, along with some thoughts on the Michael Pittman and Musa Smith signings.
The video includes my picks for five emerging offenses this year. I love Houston and Jacksonville to step it up a notch in the passing game. Denver and Philadelphia are two traditional offensive powers that struggled in the red zone last year despite plenty of yardage. One thing these teams have in common: quarterbacks I believe in.
This week's Fix looks at guys with the opportunity to bounce back this season. I'm not necessarily saying that they will, just that they are set up with excellent chances.
I know the one minute video is tough to bear (especially in these dark non-Tiffany summer days), so my list from the video is after the jump
I didn't expect Steve McNair to start many games in 2008, so the fantasy impact of his retirement is minimal. Baltimore's quarterback situation is shaky, but no shakier with him gone. It's sad to say about one of the game's true warriors over the last ten years, but the Ravens are probably better off.
I do think this guarantees Matt Ryan doesn't get past the Ravens pick. Even if Baltimore doesn't actually want him, other interested teams (Chicago? Carolina?) will assume they do and try to trade in front of the Ravens if Ryan slips past Atlanta and Kansas City.
A lot of people have Baltimore pining for a quarterback, which they should be. There are some indications, though, that they view Troy Smith as a legitimate contender to start. If not this year, then soon, even if he's a fallback plan. Here is Ryan F with the Ravens pick.
If at #4, Matt Ryan is still on the board, I think there is a very good possibility the Ravens try to trade up and grab that pick. But, seeing he's already off the board, I think the Ravens have to go CB here. I like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but I don't think he really fits his system. To me it's between Aqib Talib and Leodis McKelvin. And, seeing as how I'm just not so sure about Talib yet.... With the 8th pick in the 2008 Draft, the Baltimore Ravens select Leodis McKelvin.
If Sam Farmer wasn't such a well respected name in the journalism, this story about Favre returning would be easier to ignore. Okay, it still seems a little far-fetched. But the editors at NBC asked me to come up with five teams who would be interested in Favre if he returned. So what if it's all in fun and none of it is particularly likely to happen. It's April!
Mock Drafts aren't usually built on original thought. They primarily look at other Mock Drafts, switch some names, teams, and needs around, and go from there. Even draftniks who spend the college season following the players tend to have similar rankings because they read each other, but don't know what NFL scouts are seeing or saying.
I've been sold on Mike Mayock's mock drafts since 2005, when he had Aaron Rodgers falling all the way to number 25 to the Packers. It's not just that he nailed a pick absolutely no one saw coming, it's that he had the confidence and research to make his own decision instead of following the masses. His pipeline to NFL teams probably doesn't hurt. He revealed his first top-ten Mock picks last week and there were a few stunners that should be taken seriously. Let's take a look ...
Profootballtalk used to call Denver the "Island of Misfit Toys" for their liberal approach to free agency. We might have to start calling them the "Island of mediocre Pancake Blocks favorites." Let's not start making Free Musa 2 T-Shirts in orange, but this would be an amazing opportunity for Mr. Smith.
Firing Brian Billick was a quick way to create optimism in Baltimore. Hiring Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator was a great way to create fantasy points.
Ravens owners Steve Biscotti got the best of both worlds. He got the young, hungy, potentially inspiring young head coach to build around in John Harbaugh. Perhaps just as importantly, he got someone to fix his terminally broken offense.
If I was a smart blog writer, I’d break up this top-ten busts of the year into ten posts, increase the amount of hits, set up some content in a slow time of year, and everyone would be happy. But I’m too impatient. Let's break it into two more posts, all in one day.
10. Cedric Benson, Bears - It’s never a good sign when fantasy owners are relieved by season-ending injuries. The Bears stayed faithful as long as possible, but it’s hard to imagine Benson being handed the unquestioned starting job next year, no matter what he says.
9. Travis Henry, Broncos - Like Benson, injuries were a factor. But the reality is that Henry suited up 12 times, and he didn’t top 51 rushing yards in his last seven games. What looked like a great marriage for Henry in Denver could end after one season.
8. Mark Clayton, Ravens - No one gave fantasy owners less on this list than Clayton. He was drafted as a solid WR3 (Average Draft Position among top 30 wideouts), and never showed up for his third season. The Baltimore offense doesn’t fully explain his struggles because Derrick Mason has a similar style game.
7. Vince Young, Titans - Statistically, it was hard to argue against Young going into the season. He was a top-five fantasy QB when he played as a rookie. Fantasy Nation’s gut didn’t love him, though. His ADP was eighth, we ranked him ninth. He finished 17th and only 26th in per-game average. Trust the gut.
6. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - Don’t let LJ’s solid three-game finish before his foot injury cloud his season. He was held to five fantasy points or less in half his games, and didn’t score until Week 5. He put his owners in a huge hole, he got hurt, and then he gave out false hope that he might help them in the fantasy playoffs.
We'll finish off the busts in the morning, along with the second half of the Top 30 keepers. Thanks for the patience. In the meantime, check out today's supersized Playoff prop bet edition of the Fantasy Fix, which unfortunately includes an Omar Epps impression. If that doesn't keep you from clicking, I don't know what will.
This is one the key news weeks of the offseason, as we comb through the papers to get indications of where teams will head this offseason before everyone leaves this building. Here are some of interesting nuggets I saw this morning.
* From the Miami Herald, some of the thinking behind Cam Cameron's impending firing:
The end of the regular season means a lot of change is coming. Change in personnel, change in coaching staffs, heck, even change in my work schedule (I was splitting our morning news with Evan Silva for the first time in a while). Hopefully that will mean more regular blogging.
I was about to write that this Black Monday, the day many NFL coaches are fired, may be quieter than most because of the holiday schedule. Then news about Brian Billick's firing came in. Happy New Year!
Some running backs having more value than normal in this wild Week 17.
DeAngelo Willimas, Panthers- Finally starting to play over DeShaun Foster in key spots, and playing well. Could position himself for starting consideration in 2008.
Musa Smith, Ravens - The day has arrived! Too bad he'll be playing with Troy Smith.
14 months after the movement started, Musa Smith may finally be freed next weekend against the Steelers. At least if Mike Anderson can't get healthy.
Unfortunately, Musa will probably have to play with Troy Smith at quarterback. Smith only led the Ravens to 91 total yards of offense in the first half against Seattle. Before hitting a long garbage time touchdown, Smith hadn't led Baltimore past the Seattle 35-yard line. I don't care how many starters Pittsburgh rests, it's going to be tough to run against them with Smith at the helm. Just another case of keeping Smith down.
Ravens fans want to see what Troy Smith can do. Even some of his own teammates seem tired of Kyle Boller. The one group of people who should be upset that Smith will start Sunday at Seattle? Willis McGahee owners. Not to mention Derrick Mason owners if they have hung on this long.
Smith moved the ball against the Dolphins some, but it was mostly check-down passes and the running game. I think the Ravens will have fewer chances to score with a rookie quarterback and the Seahawks will stack the box against McGahee.
McGahee has proven that he can beat eight man fronts this year, and Seattle's rush defense is average overall. That's why he'll stay in my top-15 this week, and in my championship week lineup as a RB2 over Kevin Jones and Selvin Young. I just don't feel very good about it.
There is something inherently cheesy about picking up a team defense for a playoff matchup, but that doesn't mean it's a bad idea.
Plenty of owners rolled with the Bengals versus Brock Berlin, and they were a Rams defensive score away from holding St. Louis to three points. I picked up Bengals with an eye on this week's matchup against San Francisco. The news that Shaun Hill will make his first NFL start doesn't disappoint me. Here's a look at the three best possible defensive pickups this week. I'm only including teams not ranked in the top-15 fantasy scorers this year.
1. Baltimore (vs. Miami)
2. Tampa (vs. Atlanta)
3. Cincinnati (vs. San Francisco)
Some other choice matchups include Green Bay (vs. Rams), Colts (vs. Raiders), Titans (vs. Chiefs), and Seahawks (vs. Panthers).
Dr. Z has a terrific breakdown of all things Patriots-Ravens. He lays the loss mostly at the feet of Rex Ryan, and not because of the timeout.
I know the news cycle has moved on, but it's great stuff. As a Patriots fan, I think a team stacked with two big, physical lines will give them the most trouble. Jacksonville would not be an easy Divisional Round opponent.
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This is the last time I'll talk about the Lions receivers, but figured I'd include one final update. They will all wind up playing roughly equal snaps, so it's much about about little. I have all three Detroit receivers ranked in the thirties this week, so they are iffy WR3 plays. I worry about Detroit's offensive line handling Dallas' pressure when the Cowboys get ahead.
I left Baltimore-San Diego out of the Morning After so here are a list of unsolicted, lazy thoughts about the game. All in a writer-friendly numbered list ...
1. Any hope for a Mark Clayton revival this season is gone, at least for fantasy leaguers. He's among the most disappointing young receivers in the league.
2. Baltimore's pass defense still shouldn't scare anyone. But you knew that by now, right? San Diego's receivers were all wide open on the touchdowns, apparently the result of blown coverages.
3. Philip Rivers, like Eli Manning, has become completely unpredictable, whether good or bad.
4. Derrick Mason is still averaging under ten yards-per-catch, but he's already topped his reception and yardage total from 2006. Mason should top 100 receptions for the first time in his career and remains a perfect PPR WR3.
5. The Ravens and the Panthers are giving consistently poor efforts. If Baltimore tanks the rest of the season, the organization may have no other choice but to make a change at head coach. Fantasy owners wouldn't mind.
I've written about Willis McGahee's quietly impressive season a few times. In a year with so many busts at running back, he's outplaying his ADP and is second in the league in rushing, albeit with a cake schedule.
I own McGahee in one league and thought of selling high before this week. It's nothing I feel like I have to do, but I'm curious what he could be worth. With Pittsburgh, New England, and San Diego left on the schedule, I'd take a deal that netted top-ten value for him.
Mike, there's no doubt Kyle Boller's one of the better backups in the league, but he just doesn't seem to have the confidence or the head to lead the team as a starter. With Steve McNair showing his age, do you think the Ravens will pursue another quarterback in the offseason?
Mike Preston: They better, because all the other teams in the AFC North have proven quarterbacks, or quarterbacks of the future on their rosters. In Baltimore, the Ravens have one quarterback who is physically challenged and one that is mentally challenged. Together, McBoller is a fairly decent quarterback.
Despite Jonathan Ogden's absence, Willis McGahee continues to crank for the Ravens at an impressive 4.5 yards-per-carry rate on the season. The schedule has been fairly easy, but racking up over 100 total yards in five straight games is impressive. He's second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage, buoyed by newfound activity in the passing game.
The problem, of course, is that McGahee isn't scoring. He has six carries inside the five-yard line this season with no scores. There are a lot of factors at play here, but it's a good sign McGahee continues to get the short-yardage work all over the field.
McGahee's schedule stays easy for a few weeks before becoming very challenging down the stretch. If owners think he can keep his yardage up, McGahee looks like someone to target in a trade because the touchdowns should come. If not, McGahee is more of a sell-high candidate.
I'm conflicted. I've never been overly impressed with McGahee, but I like what I've seen this season. I like his lack of competition. I enraged a few readers (including Evan Silva) when I ranked McGahee in my top-ten overall runners two weeks ago over guys like Marion Barber and Reggie Bush. So what do you think? Can McGahee be a true a RB1?
Derrick Mason missed practice Thursday. It might be a routine day off, but it's somewhat rare for a player to skip practice Thursday after working fully on Wednesday.
Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams owners should be praying that Mason misses a game because he's been a huge target hog this year. Mason has 50 pass targets, good for second in the league. Williams has 25, and Mark Clayton has 16, although the two have been equal over the last two weeks.
"It's a team sport," Lewis said, on the way out of the stadium. "Trying to be political. Trying to always say the right thing. Sooner or later, you get tired of making excuses. This is the NFL. You're going to give up points. It happens. But you have to ask: Is it the defensive side?"
Baltimore's offense actually racked up 418 total yards Sunday against Cleveland, they just couldn't capitalize in the red zone. But this outburst is a sign of a team that is used to playing the bully, and has been pushed around too often this year - on both sides of the ball.
Turned on NFL Network when I got to work this morning and watched Mike Periera's weekly "Official Review" segment on Total Access. He basically admitted the obvious: The offensive pass interference called on Todd Heap late in the Bengals game was the wrong judgement. It should have been a non-call.
The wildly negative stories in Baltimore this week would have a much different tone if the right call had been made. And we wouldn't be talking about how Kyle Boller didn't come through.
Can three receivers on the Ravens be worth owning? Demetrius Williams' effort on Monday night indicates it's possible.
Derrick Mason had 12 targets, enjoying one of his better games in the last half-year. Mark Clayton was seemingly relegated to a third receiver role, probably because of his ankle injury, and had only two targets. It's way too early to give up on him.
Williams had nine targets and player starter-worthy snaps. He combines two qualities fantasy heads love: vertical skills and red zone skills.
Long-time (since 2006) fans of The Fantasy Fix will remember my Free Musa campaign last year. Our hero Musa Smith was wrongly held in captivity on the bench behind Jamal Lewis all season, at least until a Week 13 injury.
With Willis McGahee in Baltimore and a quiet offseason from Smith, my cheerleading has been kept to a minimum this year. But an injury to veteran Mike Anderson gave Smith a chance to backup McGahee tonight, and he was at his explosive third-down best with 39 yards and a touchdown on six touches. He was on the field for the majority of Baltimore's one touchdown drive.
Mark Clayton is ranked as our 25th best receiver going into the season. That's higher than his average draft position, and puts him at the top of our list of possible third receiver in fantasy leagues.
Clayton got lucky last season with a few tipped passes, but he's one of the best emerging deep threats in football. He's also the top wideout on his team. So does the news regarding his ankle injury change our draft board?
# 26. Ravens backup RB: Musa Smith vs. Mike Anderson
Smith won the job last year before suffering an injury late in the season. He’s more of a third-down back with great speed, but that’s what the Ravens need to balance out Willis McGahee’s weak receiving skills. There is little reason to think that Anderson, now in his mid-thirties, will improve. P.J. Daniels is a darkhorse in the picture.
Willis McGahee has mostly been durable as a pro, but the winner here is a worthy handcuff in deep leagues. The only risk is that Baltimore would split carries if McGahee is hurt.
