September 01, 2009
I can’t really put my finger on why I’m not drafting Kurt Warner on any of my teams. He’s clearly a huge injury risk and that’s a part of it. But other than that, he’s in a great situation. Most of his games are in perfect throwing weather and he has some of the best weapons in the whole league. Everything should point to another big season.
But then I started thinking that perhaps the curse of the Super Bowl losers is why I’m not drafting Warner. I had no proof that this curse was real or that it affected quarterbacks, so I dug up the numbers.
The results were pretty surprising. Over the last 15 years, just one quarterback (Jake Delhomme) finished with a higher fantasy rank the year after his Super Bowl loss vs. his Super Bowl losing season. That’s it. Just one guy followed up a Super Bowl loss with a better fantasy year.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Warner to better his QB5 finish from last season, but history is against him. I’ll continue to let him go right past me in drafts. Here’s the data:
Continue reading "Kurt Warner and quarterbacks that lose in the Super Bowl" »
August 27, 2009
Let’s be clear from the start here. Redskins WR Devin Thomas was never one of my deep sleepers for this season anyway. Maybe it’s because I’m a Redskins fan and what they did in that 2008 draft tilted me from Day 1 (I don’t care what your needs are, going WR, TE, WR with three second-round picks can’t be smart. And while we’re on the subject, DeSean Jackson and Martellus Bennett would have looked a lot better in the burgundy and gold.).
But more likely, Thomas was never on my list because despite his significant talent, I never saw him doing much of anything as the fourth-option in a Jason Campbell-run offense.
With yesterday’s news that Malcolm Kelly (also part of that 2008 draft) has passed Thomas on the depth chart, I think it’s clear this situation can safely be ignored on draft day, even if Thomas eventually wrestles the flanker job back.
But since I put the kibosh (like Crazy Joe Davola) on “deep sleeper” Chaz Schilens in this space a couple weeks back, I feel like I owe the rest of the receivers a little something. Hopefully they won’t contract the swine flu or fall off a golf cart tomorrow. Here are the receivers I have circled on my draft board as fliers that are going after pick No. 150 in ESPN’s online drafts:
Continue reading "Six late-round receivers worth a flier" »
August 25, 2009
The most interesting news of the day (sorry, Ernest Wilford), is that Cadillac Williams will start the Bucs’ third preseason game.
Yes, that Cadillac Williams. The one with the Frankenstein knees. The one that wasn’t supposed to be a factor this season. The one that no one in their right mind has drafted.
But coach Raheem Morris wasn’t done with surprises today. He also talked about his plans for a 2-2-1 system in the regular system. And he wasn’t talking about Rick Pitino’s zone press scheme. He said that he wants the starting running back to play two series, the No. 2 back to play two series and the third back to take the fifth series. Then the rotation will start over. There will be no designated “goal-line back.”
Well, Raheem, thanks for totally sapping the value out of any of your backs. Why pay Derrick Ward $17 million over four years to touch the ball a few times a quarter?
Anyway, expect Ward to be the “No. 1 guy” when the season starts. Earnest Graham will be No. 2, and his value shouldn’t change too much. Assume Williams will be the No. 3 back and he should only be taken in the deepest of leagues.
The biggest ADP shakeup should instantly come on Ward.
Right now, Ward’s ADP according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com is 47 overall. We had him ranked as the No. 21 overall running back. Scrap those numbers, we’ll be updating our rankings as soon as we get more information.
But just at first glance, I’d move Ward below Ryan Grant, Donald Brown, Joseph Addai, Chris Wells, Reggie Bush and Thomas Jones. Heck I’d probably rather have Larry Johnson and Lendale White over Ward. And considering the latest news that Ray Rice might be a goal-line back, I’d definitely take Rice long before Ward even popped into my head.
Maybe I’m being a little harsh; but I know Ward won’t be on any of my teams unless his ADP sinks to the 9th round level. The NFL’s new backfield-by-committee style has struck again.
August 16, 2009
Deep wide receiver sleepers are a lot of fun. I’m not talking about names like Kevin Walter, Anthony Gonzalez or Lance Moore. To me (and I’m sure all of you), those guys are not sleepers.
When I think of good, wholesome, little risk/big reward receivers, I’m thinking of names like Davone Bess, Earl Bennett and Pierre Garcon. (By the way, if you haven’t read Evan Silva’s report on Bess, it’s right here; I’ll be reaching for Bess in all my drafts.)
And after the dust settled on the first full slate of preseason games, I’m adding one name to that group: Raiders flanker Chaz Schilens. The cat is certainly out of the bag at least halfway already, but there’s not a single No. 1 WR flying further under the radar than Schilens right now.
On a side note, every time I think of this guy I can’t help but think of the scene in Bronx Tale where Chazz Palminteri says “Now you’s can’t leave.” Great scene.
Anyway, Schilens has become the receiver JaMarcus Russell trusts most, right there with tight end Zach Miller. Normally that would put him near the top of the deep sleepers. But we’re still talking about the Raiders passing game here with Russell at the helm, so expectations must be tempered. Still, he’s definitely worth a bench spot as a WR4 or WR5. In keeper leagues he’s a very nice pick.
Continue reading "Looking deep for wide receiver sleepers" »
July 21, 2009
Chris Wesseling reported on eight of the most undervalued fantasy players in late June. With days separating us from the start of training camp, here's an updated look at the "Criminally Undervalued and Overvalued" as of July 21.
OVERVALUED:
1. DeAngelo Williams - Rated as a value no earlier than the late second round by Rotoworld's Draft Guide projections, the No. 1 fantasy back from 2008 currently holds an ADP of 7.6 overall. For those new to Average Draft Position, that means he's going near the middle of the first round in 12- and 14-team leagues and at the end of round one in 10-team formats. We anticipate Jonathan Stewart's role expanding and Williams' touch total dropping from 299 to 250. D-Willy is also unlikely to repeat his 20 touchdowns. We still like him for double digits, but Williams is clearly one of the most hotly debated fantasy picks heading to the heart of draft season.
2. Wes Welker - As the league leader in catches since 2006, Welker is far more desirable in points-per-reception leagues. These ADP ranks are for non-PPR, and Welker surprisingly holds an ADP of 30.7 (mid-third round in 12-team leagues). Welker remains a key cog in New England's offense, but we don't think he'll continue to outdo Randy Moss in targets (Welker got 24 more last year), and Tom Brady's accuracy in the short passing game (Welker's bread and butter) is a concern coming off a torn ACL and MCL. We'd rather have Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Terrell Owens, or Braylon Edwards as our WR2. At least in non-PPR.
3. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - While we consider him the 71st best fantasy player (a late sixth-round pick in the 12-team format), Housh is going 34th overall. In other words, no one going by Rotoworld's ranks is gonna get him. Houshmandzadeh, going on 32, is entering a rushing-friendly Seahawks offense under running guru Greg Knapp where he'll compete for targets over the middle with John Carlson and explosive rookie slot man Deon Butler. Housh has averaged just 4.5 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and his catch count is certain to fall. Since Housh isn't a big-play receiver, his yards will likely also tumble.
Continue reading "ADP's Most Undervalued/Overvalued" »
June 26, 2009
Thumbing through the handy Fantasy Football Calculator ADP tool, one can't help but notice players jumping out as over-drafted and under-drafted. Below are eight players that are being criminally under-drafted in late June.
1. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals - Coming off a successful close-out to last season and virtually guaranteed to receive one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL, Benson is being drafted as just the 30th back off the board. K.C. Joyner, from the NY Times' Fifth-Down Blog, explains Benson's "upside potential."
2. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals - Maybe it's the handiwork of this mid-June guess that Tim Hightower would open the season as the starter, but Wells is being drafted just two rounds ahead of Hightower and almost a full two rounds behind fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno. Don't believe the Hightower talk. Wells is far more talented and figures to get plenty of carries in an explosive offense.
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts - A full round behind Brees and Brady? Manning won't miss a game, and he's finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB in each of the last 10 years! Lead pipes have nothing on this lock.
Continue reading "ADP: The criminally under-drafted" »
August 29, 2007
First let's see how the truest committee in the league is being drafted.
Marion Barber: RB24, fourth/fifth-round
Julius Jones: RB30, sixth-round
We don't know that much more about this situation now than we did when Wade Phillips was hired. The owners hoping Barber would take the starting job have been disappointed, and his ADP has steadily dropped because of it. I'd take Jones over Barber straight up even though the roles look to be the same this year. For a sixth-round RB3, you aren't going to do much better.
Continue reading "Focus on Cowboys" »
Here's how the Redskins running backs are being drafted.
Clinton Portis - RB18, mid-third round
Ladell Betts - RB36, eighth round
Surprising developments here. Portis is falling, but not as much as one would expect. He is still being taken ahead of Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs. I am a risk taker, and can't get too carried away with this evaluation when I'd probably go for it in the fourth round.
Continue reading "Redskins RBs" »
Here are the top five team defenses according to average draft position, and the rounds they are being taken.
Bears - Round six
Ravens - Early round seven
Chargers - Late round eight
Patriots - Early round nine
Steelers - Round eleven
Continue reading "Why I'm not taking defense early" »
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