Martz Math

The idea that Mike Martz is going to have an immediate and monstrous impact on the Bears’ passing game isn’t just some random theory. It’s virtual fact.
Martz has previously taken over the offense of three NFL teams. Here are the results in the year before Martz vs. his first year with each franchise.
1. ST. LOUIS RAMS
1998 (BEFORE MARTZ)
- 22nd in passing offense at 192.9 yards per game.
- 5th in pass attempts with 556
- 28th in passing touchdowns with 12
1999 (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)
- 1st in passing offense at 272.1 yards per game
- 19th in pass attempts at with 530
- 1st in passing touchdowns with 42
In 1999, Kurt Warner was the No. 1 fantasy QB. Marshall Faulk was the No. 2 fantasy RB. Isaac Bruce was the No. 6 WR and Az-Zahir Hakim was the No. 30 WR. A quote from Rams head coach Dick Vermeil: "I can't think, in my history of coaching, of any assistant who came into an NFL franchise and made the immediate impact that Mike Martz did."
2. DETROIT LIONS
2005 (BEFORE MARTZ)
- 26th in passing offense at 178.0 yards per game
- 14th in pass attempts with 520
- 26th in passing touchdowns with 15
2006 (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)
- 7th in passing offense at 238.8 yards per game
- 2nd in pass attempts with 596
- 13th in passing touchdowns with 21
Jon Kitna threw for a career-high 4,208 yards in 2006. … TE Marcus Pollard led the Lions in receiving in 2005 with 46 catches. In 2006, he caught 12 passes all season. … Roy Williams scored 116.7 fantasy points in 2005. In 2006, he scored 173.0. … Kevin Jones caught 20 passes out of the backfield in 2005. In 2006, he caught 61 passes.
3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
2007 (BEFORE MARTZ)
- 32nd in passing offense at 145.0 yards per game
- 22nd in pass attempts with 513
- 26th in passing touchdowns with 15
2008 (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)
- 13th in passing offense at 211.2 yards per game
- 18th in pass attempts with 509
- 13th in passing touchdowns with 21
Alex Smith was projected as a breakout candidate thanks to Martz in 2008, but missed the entire season with a shoulder injury. Martz managed to make the Niners’ passing game mediocre with J.T. O’Sullivan and Shaun Hill. … Vernon Davis caught 31 passes for 358 yards with two touchdowns under Martz in 2008. Last season, he caught 78 passes for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns.
4. CHICAGO BEARS
2009 (BEFORE MARTZ)
- 17th in passing offense at 217.1 yards per game
- 8th in pass attempts with 563
- 10th in passing touchdowns with 27
2010 CHICAGO BEARS (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)
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We’re not going out on a very far limb by saying that Jay Cutler is a bounce-back candidate. Devin Hester, Devin Aromashodu and Johnny Knox are all value picks. Greg Olsen shouldn’t be on your radar. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are likely undervalued in PPR formats. Historical precedent with Mike Martz proves this.





Comments
Martz shouldn't attributed with all of the credit for the Rams' success. Warner was the backup going into the season and only got the job cause Trent Green was injured. I'm not saying Trent Green would have been horrible, but Martz didn't know Warner would do well, the Rams already had Warner the year before in NFLR Europe. Marshall Faulk was traded to the Rams in 1999 cause Polian thought he was causing trouble. Isaac Bruce was injured for half of of 98, I wonder why the Rams' passing game sucked then and improved so greatly in a year?
Of course Kitna got a career best in yardage, you take a low starting caliber QB with plenty of experience and let him air it out 40 times a game. Of course he'll get the yardage, but he ended up with practically a 1:1 ratio of TDs to interceptions. He didn't make the passing game any better, he just passed more. The starter the year before was Joey Harrington, does the guy ever get more TDs than interceptions? All Martz did was increase passing attempts by 35%, which obviously increased chances of TDs and INTs. He didn't improve the ratio of TDs:INTs.
With the Niners, he wasn't even there in 2009. He actually made Davis worse in 2008 than he was in 2007, Davis had his breakout year with Martz gone, so I don't get why you would even put that stat in there. He did the same thing with JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill as he did with Jon Kitna.
Will Martz emphasize deep passes and 40 pass plays per game again? Yes.
Will this improve Cutler's yardage to 4000+? Yes.
Will this improve Cutler's TD:INT ratio of 1:1? No.
Will Martz actually improve the passing offense? No.
All he'll do is show that QBs get more yardage when they pass 600 times in a year.
Posted by: You Don't Know Football | June 9, 2010 1:25 AM
this is fantasy football, not nfl. He makes fantasy football studs where he goes
Posted by: Anonymous | June 9, 2010 1:51 AM
@ "You Don't Know Football"
So???
I don't think Cutler owners will mind if he has 30 INT's to go along with his 33 TDs and 4800 yds.
Nor will the Knox, Aromashadu and Hester owners.
Posted by: Dan | June 9, 2010 1:51 AM
The note regarding Davis illustrates the Martz affect on tight ends - his offense shuts them down. Even a freakish talent like Davis who blew up after Martz left. The conclusion drawn from that point is "Greg Olsen shouldn’t be on your radar."
Maybe Martz wasn't 100% responsible for the Rams dominance, but he deserves some cred for making FFL MVP's from blue chip players and FFL studs from fodder. Until proven otherwise, it is safe to bet on Mike. He makes Cutler a solid value pick with top 5 potential.
Posted by: You Can't Read | June 9, 2010 2:17 AM
Some of these stats seem a bit hand picked to inflate the effect that Martz has on an offense. For example, sometimes the author compares a player's stats the year before Martz'z arrival to the first year in the offense. Other times, he chooses the player's stats under Martz and compares them to his stats after Martz leaves. He is carefully selecting players from each team to make his point. For example, he highlights the increase in catches that Kevin Jones saw under Martz in Detroit while ignoring the fact that Frank Gore's catches/game actually decreased under Martz compared to the year prior to his arrival or the year after his departure. It's not that I don't believe Martz won't have an effect in Chicago or that the Bears won't pass much more often in 2010 than in 2009. All I'm saying is that a critical reader should take statistics that were obviously selected for effect with a grain of salt.
Posted by: Chris | June 9, 2010 3:21 AM
My guess is You Don't Know Football's tag is something of a mantra he's left yelling in the bathroom mirror half-way through every fantasy football season while blood oozes up between the fingers as he pounds his fists against formica.
Posted by: Donnie Who Loved Bowling | June 9, 2010 3:37 AM
let's not forget that anjello and smeeth didn't even want martz until their top 5 guys turned them down. why? maybe they realised that martzs' offense has never been tried with a coldweather team playing on one of the worst surfaces in football for gaining footing. his system is based on timing, right? sure there will be great statistical weeks but don't look for anything consistent, especially late.
if healthy, aroma will be the man. cutler never fails to mention "d.a" when asked about his receivers. also, d.a. is learning the slot and outside positions, looks like knox is strictly outside and hester too. wouldn't be surprised to see hester learn the slot but he already has return duties on his plate.
the d is loaded with talent but they couldn't even find a coordinator who wanted the job so they promoted marinarelli who's never called plays before. sure he tries hard and believes in "the invisible". should be a combustible year all around.
Posted by: imploding bearsfan | June 9, 2010 7:14 AM