First Round Mock
After a couple of long days on the Rotoworld news shift, I need a break from NFL Combine talk. Let's get back to fantasy football for a minute. Here's an early look at a first-round mock for next season:
1. Chris Johnson, Titans - There's a whole lot of over-analyzing going on with Chris Johnson this offseason, from the absurd "he's not built to have a long shelf life" to the head-scratching "he blew his wad in 2009." Just take a look at the stats once Vince Young took over as the QB in Week 7: While rushing for 100+ yards in every game, he also averaged 29.7 touches, 178.7 total yards, and 1.3 TDs per week. Over 16 games, that projects to 2,256 rushing yards, 2,859 total yards, and 21 TDs. Contrarians can continue to throw skepticism at Johnson's staying power as the No. 1 fantasy back, but it's clear that he was head and shoulders above the rest of the league after the Titans moved from Kerry Collins to V.Y.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings - Peterson made up for a relatively disappointing yardage total with a two-fold increase in receptions and a league-leading 18 touchdowns. If Chester Taylor leaves for greener pastures, ADP could see another bump in receptions. If we also believe he was hampered by an injury (lower back?) for much of the season, he now has six months to rest up and get back to 100 percent.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - A scoring machine, MJD now has 56 touchdowns in 63 career games -- most of them as a part-time player. Considering his every-down status, health record, and role as the offensive centerpiece, there may not be a safer pick.
4. Ray Rice, Ravens - Willis McGahee remains a threat to steal touchdowns, much like LenDale White loomed as a lead-pipe lock vulture for Chris Johnson entering last season. That ought to teach us not to devalue dominant talents with a steady role in the passing game.
5. Frank Gore, 49ers - The Niners haven't drafted C.J. Spiller yet, so we'll cross that bridge when we come to it (for what it's worth, reliable beat writer Matt Maiocco no long considers it a likely first-round marriage). Squarely in his prime, Gore finished as the No. 4 fantasy back last season, and the offense is poised to take another step forward in 2010.
6. Michael Turner, Falcons - Turn back the clock to last summer, and Burner was battling Adrian Peterson for the No. 1 spot in many drafts. He'll be sporting fresh legs in a better offense this year.
7. Steven Jackson, Rams - Similar to an ace pitcher on a losing team with a punchless offense, S-Jax has a strong case if he ever decides to sue for lack of support. Due to a low touchdown total, his second-place finish in rushing yardage flew well under the radar. He has Top-3 potential if the Rams offense ever reaches functional status.
8. Andre Johnson, Texans - While Larry Fitzgerald deals with a quarterback downgrade, Johnson cemented himself as a first-round pick in becoming only the second receiver (Jerry Rice was the first) to lead the NFL in receiving yardage in consecutive seasons.
9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs - Chalk the skepticism up to fear of the unkown. The Chiefs' every-down back led the league in first-down percentage while placing second in footballoutsiders.com's DVOA effectiveness ratings and third in profootballfocus.com's RB rankings on his way to a No. 2 fantasy finish over the second-half of the season. If that's not enough, his head coach and owner are positively giddy about his potential going forward.
10. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Meet the first-round bottleneck. DeAngelo Williams, Rashard Mendenhall, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, and Matt Forte all merit consideration, but I'd lean toward the No. 1 fantasy quarterback's upside in a still-rising offense. Jermichael Finley emerged as an unstoppable monster down the stretch while Greg Jennings re-established himself as a premier downfield threat with the offensive line coming together and allowing Rodgers time to throw. The Packers offense may edge out the Saints, Colts, Vikings, Cowboys and Texans for most explosive in the league.
Comments
Love it all but the J. charles pick. now I now the #s and this and that but dont you think that it is more of a hype pick? I think he has to prove himself a little more then the time he put in 2009 to be ranked that high
Posted by: barry koster | February 26, 2010 8:00 PM
Your an idiot
Posted by: Anonymous | February 26, 2010 8:26 PM
a 10-team 1st round mock? seriously? I didnt realize i had been re-directed to Yahoo's "expert" content page.
Posted by: Michael Campbell | February 26, 2010 9:26 PM
I enjoyed looking it over, but way to high on Charles in my opinion
Posted by: kbowersjr | February 26, 2010 9:46 PM
Hello. Make love, not war. Help me! There is an urgent need for sites: Avapro valsartan interchangeability. I found only this - avapro causing pedal edema. Avapro, exercise accompanies that blood things medication and pressure perfusion. Consider me make if you and your blood risk fluid at all, avapro. Best regards :mad:, Ieesha from Maldives.
Posted by: Ieesha | February 26, 2010 10:00 PM
I'm not going to knock it. Values can and will change with free agency and the draft on the horizon. If people were to draft right now, this is quite possibly what the first round might look like. If I had the number 9 pick, I might not take Charles, but he is definitely up for debate at that spot. If I had number 10, I wouldn't take Rodgers, but thats because I always gun for a QB around the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round. Its all arguable, but this is a pretty good insight into what a consensus top 10 will look like heading into this years drafts. I like it Chris, keep up the good work.
I've been lucky enough to own Andre Johnson in back to back years now (not in a keeper league either), and I really hope that I am picking somewhere between 6-8 so I can surely take him again! Its difficult to pass on a RB with top 5 skills like those you mentioned, but if my draft mirrors this, those backs will be off the board and I can look at Mendenhall, McCoy, Williams, etc... in the early 2nd round.
Posted by: Ryan | February 26, 2010 10:28 PM
Curious to what your rankings look like and all Chris, I'd like to see you, or the group of you do something along the lines of a 3, 4, or 5 round mock with explanations of the picks. That would sure make for a good read and help a lot of people gauge player values going into this years drafts. Just a thought!
Posted by: Ryan | February 26, 2010 10:31 PM