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Sophomore wideouts revisited

The last “trend” I’m going to look back at is the idea of a “sophomore slump” for wide receivers.

As I pointed out in this preseason column, just five of 17 wideouts that broke 800 yards as a rookie improved their fantasy production as sophomores. Receivers like Michael Clayton, Derrick Alexander, Chris Chambers and Kevin Johnson all regressed badly after standout rookie campaigns.

The guys in question this season were DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal. Here are their non-PPR fantasy points strictly from a receiving perspective (no rushing or punt return numbers included):

Jackson: 2008 = 103.2; 2009 = 170.7
Royal: 2008 = 128; 2009 = 34.5

Both players had very interesting seasons. D-Jax’s breakout represents one of the greatest statistical improvements in the history of this trend. Royal’s demise represents one of the worst regressions.

Jackson caught just one more ball than last season while playing in one less game. Can he sustain his 18.5 yards per catch average from this season? I’d bet against it, but there’s no denying D-Jax will an elite fantasy wideout in 2010 thanks to his explosiveness. (By the way, Jackson’s Twitter page is pure comedy. But even better is the guy that translates Jackson’s Tweets. Don’t say I never gave you anything).

Royal simply wasn’t used like we (or anyone else on the planet except Josh McDaniels) thought he would be. It’s a danger a lot of young players face when a new coaching regime comes on the scene.

The idea of the trend is that a big rookie season can cause the hype machine to spin out of control and send average draft positions (ADP) to ridiculous heights.

Next year, there won’t be any second-year receivers hyped as much as Jackson and Royal were. No rookies broke 800 yards, with Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks coming up just short at 790 yards apiece. Less hype equals more reasonable ADP. Therefore, I’ll be more inclined to take some shots with sophomore receivers in 2010 drafts.

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