Thursday Night Matchup: MIA @ CAR
Chad Henne will remain a game manager on Thursday night
The Dolphins' offense won't change much despite Ronnie Brown's season-ending Lisfranc fracture. Ricky Williams lacks Brown's first-step burst and shiftiness, but is plenty experienced as the Wildcat Triggerman and was a decorated high school shortstop. He can throw.
The most likely adjustment, as Gregg Rosenthal pointed out Wednesday night on Twitter, is the probable increase of rookie QB Pat White's usage. White won't suddenly become a fantasy factor, but the Dolphins' offense won't suddenly tank, either.
With that out of the way, let's get to Thursday night's Panthers-Dolphins matchup:
This game sets up as a decidedly run-heavy affair. Both teams rank in the top three in rushing attempts and have bottom-eight passing attacks. Carolina seemingly has an edge at home after Miami lost Ronnie Brown for the year, but new Dolphins every-down back Ricky Williams has been even more effective per play. Carolina is also highly suspectible to the run, ranking 25th in rush defense and allowing an NFL sixth-worst 4.6 YPC. Not helping the Panthers: WLB Thomas Davis (torn ACL) went on I.R. in Week 9, All-Pro DE Julius Peppers can't play on early downs due to a broken hand, and DT Damione Lewis (shoulder) is questionable. The Dolphins get back mauling RG Justin Smiley from injury, so consider Williams a legit RB1 in this very favorable matchup.
Miami will again ask Chad Henne to "game manage," rather than test the Panthers' No. 4 pass defense. While Henne has executed the role successfully with just one turnover in his last three games, this isn't a recipe for even two-QB league fantasy production. He's thrown only two TDs and is averaging 166 passing yards a game over the same span...Davone Bess has seemingly emerged as Henne's go-to guy with 10 catches for 128 yards in his last two efforts, but his lack of big-play ability and the Dolphins' four-receiver rotation kills his upside. Bess is only a borderline WR3 in PPR leagues...Ted Ginn Jr. started last week, but was benched after an early drop. Avoid Dolphins wideouts after Bess, and their tight ends. Anthony Fasano (hip) won't play.
DeAngelo Williams (knee) and Jonathan Stewart (heel) are listed as questionable, but both will play. While Williams is Carolina's clear lead back, Stewart has emerged as a significant red-zone threat. J-Stew is seeing 53% of the Panthers' red-zone carries despite getting 111 touches to D-Will's 189 on the year. While Williams is an every-week play -- even against Miami's No. 7 run defense -- Stewart is the better bet for a touchdown in any given week. Stewart's superior power is a big plus when Carolina is playing with a short field.
The loss of LT Jordan Gross to a season-ending ankle fracture will adversely affect the Panthers' deep passing game, especially against teams that generate pressure. The Dolphins are fourth in the league in sacks, and have found an upgrade over Joey Porter at ROLB in Charlie Anderson and Cameron Wake. With heat coming off the weak side, Jake Delhomme will struggle to find time in the pocket...Steve Smith would be impossible to sit against Miami's No. 27 pass defense, but may need a breakdown in the secondary to hit a big play...Don't expect Muhsin Muhammad to come close to repeating his six-catch, 91-yard Week 10 output against the Falcons. Muhammad racked up those numbers against Atlanta's zone defense. The Dolphins apply much more press coverage, which Moose can't separate from.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 21, Panthers 16
Comments
picking the dolphins with no ronnie. bold.
Posted by: jeff | November 18, 2009 10:49 PM
Miami big!
Posted by: Shad | November 18, 2009 11:00 PM
Interesting points about Ricky. I forgot he played baseball. I'm expecting one running TD and a passing TD, and 100 yards against the Panthers.
Posted by: Kevin | November 18, 2009 11:09 PM
Think a guy like Cobb or Polite has a shot at becoming the new Ricky Williams in the offense, or are we likely to just see more Pat White and a scattered few carries among them?
Posted by: Fredex | November 18, 2009 11:46 PM
All of you are going to be eating your words this thursday. We beat them by atleast 10.
Posted by: Ricky | November 19, 2009 12:15 AM
Patrick Cobbs is out for the year, and Polite is almost strictly a lead blocker, though he does contribute some on short-yardage downs.
Lex Hilliard would be a savvy pickup, especially for Ricky owners. Williams isn't a great bet to hold up to the 25-touch grind at age 32.
Posted by: evan | November 19, 2009 12:47 AM
Thanks... if my waiver bid for Forsett hadn't panned out I may have taken a flyer on Hilliard.
A random matchup question unrelated to this thread: in my 3 WR league, I've got Ocho and Marshall.
Any opinions on Ocho vs. Nnamdi compared to Marshall with a one-legged Orton or Simms throwing to him? Both guys have been having good years for me, but neither scenario sounds too appealing.
Two days ago I was ready to go with option C in Dwayne Bowe, but Bowe must have had some bad General Tso's too. Would L. Coles make sense instead?
Posted by: Fredex | November 19, 2009 01:19 AM