Thursday Night Matchup: CHI @ SF

Crabtree has a great matchup in San Fran
Note: This is Evan Silva's matchup breakdown for 2009's Thursday Night Football debut. The game starts at 8:20ET. As of noon Thursday, the forecast for Walsh Field at Candlestick is calling for 60-degree temperatures, only 12MPH winds, and zero chance of precipitation.
And on to the matchup:
Michael Crabtree was widely compared to Larry Fitzgerald coming out of Texas Tech, and it just so happens that Fitz ripped this same Bears secondary for 123 yards and two TDs last week. In coverage, Crabtree will see LCB Peanut Tillman -- playing with a separated shoulder -- and RCB Zackary Bowman, who's been picked on all year. Look for Crabtree's first touchdown Thursday night on NFL Network ... The Bears have been stingy against tight ends, but are dealing with injuries to their top two strong safeties (Al Afalava - shoulder, Kevin Payne - back). An obvious must-start, Vernon Davis is fantasy football's No. 1 TE.
Isaac Bruce (ankle) won't play, increasing Josh Morgan's snaps and WR3 viability. The 49ers' offense is theoretically run heavy, but OC Jimmy Raye has shown a willingness to use shotgun-spread looks since installing Alex Smith at QB. More passing means more targets for a "No. 4" option like Morgan ... 49ers slot WR Jason Hill caught his first four passes of 2009 in Week 9, going for 50 yards and two fluky touchdowns. He is a situational player, however, and will be very inconsistent ... Frank Gore is averaging 20 touches for 146 yards a game with a pair of touchdowns in his last two outings. Chicago is 21st against the run.
The Bears return from an awful loss in which they fell behind Arizona 31-7 in two quarters. OC Ron Turner would love to get his ground game going, but struggling Matt Forte won't have success against a San Francisco run defense that ranks fourth in the NFL, surrenders a league-low 3.4 YPC, and will have "in the box" SS Michael Lewis (quadriceps) to essentially act as a fifth linebacker. Chicago will only be able to stay out of third-and-longs by aggressively testing the 49ers' No. 24 pass defense. The Niners are susceptible to big plays through the air (25 of 20+ yards allowed), and Jay Cutler has the arm to capitalize.
Devin Hester leads the Bears with nine catches of 20+ yards. He is hot (seven-catch, 90-yard average in his last four games), will often see first-year starting LCB Tarell Brown in coverage, and is a strong WR2 ... Forte is difficult to sit as a rare every-down back, but consider doing so if you have higher-upside options. His matchup is extremely unfavorable ... Greg Olsen gets to prove his 71-yard, three-TD Week 9 wasn't a fluke against a 49ers team that allowed Tony Gonzalez, Owen Daniels, and Dallas Clark to average seven catches for 93 yards a game in Weeks 5-8 ... In Week 9, Earl Bennett got most of his 93 yards during garbage time. He rotates evenly with rookie Johnny Knox, so using either is a fantasy crapshoot.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Bears 21
Be on the lookout for the rest of Silva's game-by-game matchups on the Rotoworld NFL page Thursday night/Friday morning. Here's Gregg and Tiffany's Fantasy Fix preview of Thursday night.





Comments
Love this stuff. Thanks.
Posted by: Eddie | November 12, 2009 12:39 PM
Evan, your weekly matchup article is my favorite. Thank you!
Posted by: Steve | November 12, 2009 12:45 PM
for this week, would you use Hightower or Forte?
Posted by: LoveNFL | November 12, 2009 12:51 PM
do I use Cutler tonight or wait to use McNabb Sunday
Posted by: bill | November 12, 2009 1:03 PM
Dude, what about Alex Smith? Where is the fantasy talk about him.
Posted by: Don Dada | November 12, 2009 1:08 PM
san fran pass def pretty soft ,guess it's cutler
Posted by: bill | November 12, 2009 1:14 PM
Forte, Reggie Bush, or Jamal Charles this week? It's a PPR league.
Posted by: Branden | November 12, 2009 1:17 PM