Thanksgiving Matchup: OAK @ DAL
This matchup stacks up quite well for Cowboys RB Marion Barber
No team has more rushing attempts against than the Raiders. Opponents routinely game plan to beat them on the ground, and Dallas is a safe bet to follow suit. Particularly with Jason Witten nursing a foot sprain and Tony Romo a sore back, Marion Barber is a threat for 20+ touches as he comes off a 107-yard game -- his best since Week 2. MB3 is a borderline RB1 against a front seven that will start Richard Seymour (back) at less than 100%...Just the TE16 overall, Witten is a low-upside gamble with an injury and Raiders SS Tyvon Branch playing at a ridiculously high level.
Oakland's strength is in pass defense. Only the Colts and Jets have given up more TDs in the air, and the Raiders will likely to hold Roy Williams in check with Nnamdi Asomugha...Miles Austin, however, has factors working in his favor. The Raiders don't use nearly as many double teams as his last three opponents (PHI, GB, WAS), and he will mostly see LCB Chris Johnson in coverage. Johnson, who gets safety help from Branch -- who will key on Witten -- is the lesser of two evils in Oakland's secondary. Consider Austin a high-upside WR2, even if Romo only tries 25 passes.
Bruce Gradkowski breathed life into Oakland's offense last week, tossing two touchdowns against a Bengals team that didn't take the Raiders seriously. Having seen division rival Philadelphia also fall victim to Oakland this year, Dallas won't make the same mistake. Gradkowski has never had sustained success in the NFL, and Cowboys OLB DeMarcus Ware has seven sacks in his last six games. Dallas' fantasy defense is a recommended play. Zach Miller will stay on the line to help Raiders LT Mario Henderson block Ware, and Oakland's wideouts are never worth fantasy consideration. This game shouldn't be close.
Darrius Heyward-Bey and Chaz Schilens will start at wideout for Oakland. They rotate with Louis Murphy and Johnnie Lee Higgins....Michael Bush started Oakland's last two games over Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden, but a third-quarter fumble in Week 11 got him benched. Bush finished with four touches compared to Fargas' ten and McFadden's nine. The Cowboys have the No. 7 run defense and have allowed only four rushing TDs (fifth fewest in the league). The Raiders' backfield needs to be avoided in fantasy until someone emerges as the lead runner. And that may not happen soon.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Raiders 6
Comments
How do you see Romo's production this week? He burned me last week with Eli sitting on my bench!
Posted by: BP | November 25, 2009 08:29 PM
I don't love Romo because I expect his pass attempts total to be low due to a run-heavy game plan, but he won't produce as poorly as he did in Weeks 10-11 (combined 409 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs).
The Cowboys' offense is certain to rebound after two down weeks. They remain a top-five unit overall and Marion Barber continues to get healthier.
Posted by: evan | November 25, 2009 08:55 PM
I am trying to decide between the Cowboys D/ST and the Packers D/ST. Both have awesome matchups this week. Do I go w/ GB b/c they have a better chance of scoring a TD on Defense? Thanks!
Posted by: HTG | November 25, 2009 09:33 PM
"Losers of two straight, the Cowboys can't afford such an approach"? The Cowboys beat Redskins just last week.
Posted by: bob | November 26, 2009 12:14 AM
"Losers of two straight, the Cowboys can't afford such an approach. "
Didn't they beat the skins?? 7-6 still counts as a win... Raiders should cover the 14.
Posted by: D | November 26, 2009 12:17 AM
"Losers of two straight, the Cowboys can't afford such an approach. "
Didn't they beat the skins?? 7-6 still counts as a win... Raiders should cover the 14.
Posted by: D | November 26, 2009 12:17 AM
Why do you expect Asomugha to cover Williams and not Austin?
Posted by: david | November 26, 2009 09:00 AM