Kurt Warner and quarterbacks that lose in the Super Bowl
I can’t really put my finger on why I’m not drafting Kurt Warner on any of my teams. He’s clearly a huge injury risk and that’s a part of it. But other than that, he’s in a great situation. Most of his games are in perfect throwing weather and he has some of the best weapons in the whole league. Everything should point to another big season.
But then I started thinking that perhaps the curse of the Super Bowl losers is why I’m not drafting Warner. I had no proof that this curse was real or that it affected quarterbacks, so I dug up the numbers.
The results were pretty surprising. Over the last 15 years, just one quarterback (Jake Delhomme) finished with a higher fantasy rank the year after his Super Bowl loss vs. his Super Bowl losing season. That’s it. Just one guy followed up a Super Bowl loss with a better fantasy year.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Warner to better his QB5 finish from last season, but history is against him. I’ll continue to let him go right past me in drafts. Here’s the data:
Final fantasy ranking at the quarterback position for Super Bowl losers. The first year listed is the year they went to the Super Bowl and lost:
Kurt Warner 2008: 5
Kurt Warner 2009: ???
Tom Brady 2007: 1
Tom Brady 2008: 60
Rex Grossman 2006: 15
Rex Grossman 2007: 39
Matt Hasselbeck 2005: 4
Matt Hasselbeck 2006: 22
Donovan McNabb 2004: 3
Donovan McNabb 2005: 20
Jake Delhomme 2003: 15
Jake Delhomme 2004: 6
Rich Gannon 2002: 1
Rich Gannon 2003: 36
Kurt Warner 2001: 2
Kurt Warner 2002: 45 (3 Tds, 11 Ints in 7 games)
Kerry Collins 2000: 9
Kerry Collins 2001: 14
Steve McNair 1999: 9
Steve McNair 2000: 14
Chris Chandler 1998: 7
Chris Chandler 1999: 20
Brett Favre 1997: 1
Brett Favre 1998: 3
Drew Bledsoe 1996: 6
Drew Bledsoe 1997: 6
Neil O’Donnell 1995: 19
Neil O’Donnell 1996: 44
Stan Humphries 1994: 13
Stan Humphries 1995: 18
Jim Kelly 1993: 9
Jim Kelly 1994: 11
Comments
Thank you for giving me proof to show those that mocked me for passing on Warner...
Posted by: L Ron Hibbered | September 2, 2009 04:08 AM
This is a blatant example of selection bias. If you take any group of high-achieving players over a short sample (e.g. QBs who played in the Superbowl), they are likely to decline the following year. I don't know where to get historical fantasy rankings, but if you did the exact same study with winning SB quarterbacks, I'd expect you'd find similar results.
Posted by: brackenthebox | September 2, 2009 09:25 AM
So a lesson could be to approach players coming off a career year with a degree of skepticism about repeating the performance... selection bias or not, I think there's something to that. Especially with running backs.
Without doing any research since I'm at work and probably shouldn't be posting here at all, I would expect the trend to not be as stark with Super Bowl winners. Thinking of Brady, the Mannings, Roethlisberger over the last few years... some of those guys put up better numbers the following year. (didn't Ben set a franchise record for tds in 2006? or was that 2007?)
Posted by: Fredex | September 2, 2009 12:10 PM
Great reason for picking up Warner? Look at the fantasy football playoff schedule. If your like the majority of leagues where the playoffs are week 14-16. The Cardinals play San Fran, Detroit, and St Louis. That can't hurt your chances...
Posted by: Strato | September 2, 2009 12:10 PM
@Fredex:
As you say, the trend with SB winners recently isn't as stark. going off of TDs and yards, Brady improved after winning the SB twice (01 and 03), and Roeth improved slightly after 05 (1 more TD and 1000 more yards in 3 more games; his career year was 07).
However, every other SB winning QB in the same time frame (since 1993) decreased in both yards and TDs the following year. This list includes names like Favre, Elway, Young, Aikman, Warner, and Manning (twice).
There are plenty of reasons to not like Warner this year, but the fact that he lost the Superbowl last year isn't one of them.
Posted by: brackenthebox | September 2, 2009 12:54 PM
I can see passing on warner but not because he lost the superbowl. I wouldn't question anyone who was scared to draft warner because of his age or injury concerns (still not sure about the hip) but people over think this jinx stuff. I personally WOULD draft warner because if he stays relatively healthy he fantasy gold with that wr corps. draft warner and take a a player like palmer or hasselbeck later as insurance. but warner has too many positives not to draft him. (weapons, offensive scheme, and fantasy playoff schedule)
Posted by: mark in mi | September 2, 2009 02:59 PM
Strato,
Warner has to make it that far. To further support the DND (do not draft) Warner argument only 2 QBs in NFL history over the age of 30 have played 2 complete 16 game seasons back2back. Not to mention last season was Warner's first 16 game season.
Warner is already "struggling" in the preseason with a hip injury. Although it may not be much, the point is that he's already banged up.
If you draft Warner this year, for peace of mind take Leinart instead of that RB5/WR5/TE2/QB2.
Posted by: Paul | September 2, 2009 03:18 PM