Fast Willie Parker gets a quick bump in value
Willie Parker was available in the sixth round in virtually all of my drafts. Everyone knows why:
- His yards-per-carry average has gone down in each of the last four years.
- Rashard Mendenhall is healthy after sitting out almost all of last season with a shoulder injury.
- Parker isn’t a good receiver and Mewelde Moore plays on third-down.
- Fast Willie will be 29 in November.
- Parker struggled with shoulder and knee problems recently and is generally injury prone.
- FWP is not an upside player.
But after digesting the news coming out of Pittsburgh this week, I’m starting to regret that I didn’t take Parker in any of those drafts.
First, Mike Tomlin said he doesn’t plan on using a running back rotation. “Willie Parker is our runner,” Tomlin said. "Rashard's done a nice job and he's going to get an opportunity to get his touches, but more important than anything else, Willie Parker is our runner."
Then, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians chimed in with this quote regarding who will be the goal-line back: “We'll go back to the guy who's in the game unless he's dead tired when we get down there," Arians said.
So if the Steelers aren’t going to use a rotation that means Parker is usually going to be in the game. And if he’s in the game, he’s going to get the touchdowns. The Steelers may not want Parker to be a true workhorse, but when Sunday (or Thursday) comes around, they aren’t afraid to give him the ball.
Even last year, he averaged 19.09 carries per game. Over the last four seasons, he’s averaged 19.70 carries per game.
Finally, the Steelers just don’t seem that happy with Mendenhall, last year’s first-round pick. Nothing bad has come out about him, but nothing glowing either. He just hasn’t impressed enough to warrant anything more than a true backup role.
The bottom line is I’m not expecting huge things out of Parker because he's simply not that great of a back. But since he’s the 23rd runner being taken in ESPN.com live drafts, I feel like I lost out on some value for my bench depth. There are just not that many backs getting 17+ carries a game and the goal-line out there. We’ll start to get a sense tomorrow night when the Steelers and Titans open up the season.
Comments
Since I can't wait for the chat tomorrow night, this is as good a place as any for my question.
Does RotoWorld HONESTLY expect Ben Rothlisberger going against the Titans to outperform Matt Hasselbeck against the Rams? Big Ben is ranked higher and I find that EXTREMELY hard to believe.
Posted by: Robert O | September 9, 2009 04:24 PM
General question... how do you guys feel about the necessity of handcuffing players at the expense of grabbing other players with more immediate upside.
For example, in my last draft, I had Frank Gore, and the way the draft played out, I couldn't help grabbing Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Willis McGahee for the time they were still on the board, then had no roster room left for Glenn Coffee.
(I also have MJD but am not quite conviced he has a clear-cut handcuff like Coffee is to Gore. I'd expect a little more of a split if he goes down.)
Maybe I'll seriously regret what I did if one of my guys goes down, but on the other hand, I have some interesting guys to play on bye weeks or in their stead if they get a short-term injury.
I was kind of wringing my hands about the prospect of someone else feasting on the Niners' relatively easy schedule if Gore gets a season-ending injury, but when I saw Felix Jones still on the board at my pick in round 7 and McGahee still there when I picked in round 9, I couldn't help myself.
Thoughts?
Posted by: Fredex | September 9, 2009 04:38 PM
Why do I suck? Man... I wish I didn't suck. I want to tote the rock so bad!
Posted by: Rashard Mendenhall | September 9, 2009 05:30 PM
I just dropped sure-to-get-injured Brian Westbrook and picked up James Davis. Hope you guys are right about him!
Posted by: Jacob | September 9, 2009 06:14 PM
I don't think there was anything wrong with taking Jones and Rice, but I would have taken Coffee over McGahee.
Posted by: cjm | September 9, 2009 06:19 PM
I've never drafted parker on any fantasy team. No real reason, just never bought the hype. A smallish back that doesn't stay in on 3rd downs just doesn't appeal to me I guess.....As for handcuffing, it depends on the player (and by player I mean the benched player). I don't choose to handcuff my starters largely because I'd rather have no.1s. although if I was to handcuff, coffee would be a likely choice do to his age and upside. handcuffing makes more sense in deep redraft leagues more so than in dynasty leagues (which is what I prefer). in dynasty leagues I'll take a backup even if I don't have the starter i.e. james davis but I've repeatedly turned down chester taylor to handcuff with my A.P. I'd just rather try to get guys that I think can start in the next yr or so. I'm always developing younger players not making sure I've got my starters handcuff. but that's just dynasty. if I had the same team in a 14 team redraft I'd definately target a handcuff provided they were talented enough to make a difference. most aren't imo.
Posted by: mark in mi | September 9, 2009 06:25 PM
Fed Ex, Coffee should have been the grab over Mcgahee - I have Rice in all my leagues, but have no interest in handcuffing Mcgahee to him, heck if Rice were to go down McClain could easily take over - since McGahee simply is not that good.
Posted by: scott l. | September 9, 2009 07:11 PM