Jets backfield = three-headed monster
Every summer I keep a "do not touch" list of players I won't be drafting regardless of their ADP. This year's list is headed by a 31-year-old running back coming off a career season. As this graph shows, drafters have been catching on over the past four months. Thomas Jones' ADP has dropped nearly two full rounds since April.
So why is Jones' ADP sinking like a stone? The Jets backfield is morphing into a three-headed monster similar to the committee attack espoused by head coach Rex Ryan's former team -- the 2008 Ravens.
Shonn Greene is going to contribute immediately: Playing through a gimpy ankle, he was the best running back on the field in Thursday's scrimmage. Beat writer M.A. Mehta promptly announced that Greene would "challenge incumbent Thomas Jones" this season. Coach Ryan was just as impressed: "I think we all saw why they gave it to him so much. He is a talented runner. He's got great vision. Everything we thought he was. And the fact he's playing with an ankle injury. That speaks volumes about this young man." It's becoming more and more clear that Greene is going to have a role this season, and the most like scenario is short-yardage/goal-line action.
The new coaching staff wants playmaker Leon Washington to touch the ball more often: After speaking with Jets coaches in late July, SI's Peter King came away convinced that Washington will see the ball 300 times(!) this season. That's an increase of 100 touches. Even if King is on the hyperbolic side, all signs point to Jones losing touches -- especially in the passing game -- to Washington.
Thomas Jones is riddled with question marks, and last year's fantasy stats are long gone: Jones is undoubtedly in phenomenal physical condition, but age mows down all running backs. He's now 31-years-old with four straight seasons of 290+ carries. Unlike last season when Jones had Brett Favre and his HOF reputation keeping defenses honest, he's now stuck with two unproven options under center. Defenses will be stacking the box and daring Sanchez or Clemens to burn them. Throw in an inconsistent workload, and Jones becomes a fantasy albatross instead of a weekly advantage.
Don't draft Thomas Jones thinking he can help you as a weekly RB2 this season. This is a new coaching staff, and a glimpse into the horizon shows three horses running.
Comments
Preaching to the choir here.
Posted by: Bob | August 7, 2009 04:17 PM
The more you look at this backfield, the more it looks like fantasy wasteland. Unless Greene steps up and becomes a viable fantasy RB, there is little to get excited about. I think an expanded role for Washington is a bad idea - he's a productive situational player -, and even though Jones still has some gas left in the tank, it's tough to expect too much from him at this point. If his ADP keeps falling he may have some nice late value however. Remember that he's a a freak in the weight room.
So we know this alreay, right? Think about what it will do to the passing game and young Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens, not to mention a mediocre WR corps.
Are we saying Shonne Greene is the catalyst to the team success? Scary.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | August 7, 2009 04:19 PM
wow.. the main page of the blog is all effed up. no side bars or scrolling. weird
Posted by: scott c | August 7, 2009 05:34 PM
BeastOrBust, how can you think that giving the ball to their most electric playmaker is a bad idea? Leon Washington is the only big play threat on the Jets. Why does everyone think he'll break with increased carries? He's never been injured in his NFL career. Nobody is better at making the last guy miss than Washington. He has the kind of sudden and explosive skill set that puts points on the scoreboard. Rex Ryan even said it himself! Who else is gonna score points for the Jets? If they wan't to win games they'll have to get Washington the ball.
Peter King's prediction shows he has smarts and balls. Rotoworld disagrees with him, but what are they gonna tell you that five similar websites won't? nothing.
On a different note, I wonder if Rotoworld would like to see Wells win the starting job in Arizona? Your bias in your reporting of the subject is laughable. When you try to spin his sideline sprints today into him having a good chance of winning the starting job, can you really say your being objective?
Leon Washington playing for the NFL minimum is wrong and The Jets know it. Pay the man!!!!!
Posted by: perplexed | August 7, 2009 05:54 PM
There is no questioning Leon Washingtons ability. He is a great player, capable of breaking some big plays - Neon Leon. We question his ability to carry a larger load, especially rushing the football. 300 touches would double(his rookie season touches) and nearly triple his 2007/08 workload. 300 touches is a lot for any RB. It's fair to question whether he can carry the load.
Washington is a low ceiling/high floor fantasy player. We have him appropriately ranked as around the 30th best Dynasty RB in the league. A hit or miss weekly starter.
I think the point of this pancake block is that for a team that will be totally committed to rushing the football, there are still some question marks at the RB position. We agree. The discerning fantasy owner can use this analysis to evaluate the Jets passing game as well.
Posted by: BeastOrBust | August 7, 2009 07:50 PM
Yeah, I think the Jets rank low on the fantasy totem pole all the way around.
I like Washington's skills, but really...he's not getting 300 touches. I drafted Jones last season as a value pick and he rewarded with solid numbers. This season? No way!
Is Dustin Keller the best player here based on ADP? Maybe...
Posted by: JS | August 8, 2009 01:06 AM
Why so perplexed. Rotoworld does an excellent job pointing out possible job transitions which is what they're doing here. Greene is the fantasy future in new York whether this year or next right now is the time to get him.
Posted by: Not perplexed | August 8, 2009 12:35 PM